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‣ Thirty-five Years of Long-run Energy Forecasting : Lessons for Climate Change Policy

Hourcade, Jean-Charles; Nadaud, Franck
Fonte: Banco Mundial Publicador: Banco Mundial
Português
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This paper sheds light on an implicit dimension of the climate policy debate: the extent to which supply-side response (emission-reducing energy technologies) may substitute for the transformation of consumption behavior and thus help get around the political difficulties surrounding such behavioral transformation. The paper performs a meta-review of long-term energy forecasts since the end of the 1960s in order to put in perspective the controversies around technological optimism about the potential for cheap, large-scale, carbon-free energy production. This retrospective analysis encompasses 116 scenarios conducted over 36 years and analyzes their predictions for a) fossil fuels, b) nuclear energy, and c) renewable energy. The analysis demonstrates how the predicted relative shares of these three types of energy have evolved since 1970, for two cases: a) predicted shares in 2010, which shows how the initial outlooks for the 2000-2010 period have been revised as a function of observed trends; and b) predicted shares for t+30...

‣ Assessing the Investment Climate for Climate Investments : A Comparative Framework for Clean Energy Investments in South Asia in a Global Context

Mani, Muthukumara S.
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
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One of the strong messages that came out of the recent United Nations Climate Change conference in Durban was that the private sector has to play an important role if we are to globally move toward a low carbon, climate resilient -- or "climate compatible" -- future. However, private investment will only flow at the scale and pace necessary if it is supported by clear, credible, and long-term policy frameworks that shift the risk-reward balance in favor of less carbon-intensive investment. The private sector also needs information on where to invest in clean energy in emerging markets, and it needs policy support to lower investment risk. Barriers to low carbon investments often include unclear and inconsistent energy policies, monopoly structures for existing producers, stronger incentives for conventional energy than clean energy, and a domestic financial sector not experienced in new technologies. With the long-term goal of promoting and accelerating the implementation of climate mitigation technologies...

‣ The Energy Transition of the Transition Economies : An Empirical Analysis

Zhang, Fan
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
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The aggregate manufacturing energy intensity of 28 countries in Eastern Europe and Central Asia had declined by 35 percent during 1998-2008. This study reveals strong evidence of convergence: less efficient countries improved more rapidly and the cross-country variance in energy productivity narrowed over time. An index decomposition analysis indicates that energy intensities declined largely because of more efficient energy use rather than shifts from energy intensive to less intensive manufacturing activities. Income growth and energy price increases were the main drivers of the convergence. They dominated the impact of trade, which led to specialization in energy intensive industries.

‣ Renewable Energy Potential in Selected Countries

World Bank
Fonte: Washington, DC Publicador: Washington, DC
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Renewable energy (RE) resources have been attracting growing interest in both the industrialized and the developing world in the last five to eight years. The main drivers for this interest and accelerated activity have been the expected strong demand for energy in the developing world and environmental concerns, particularly of the risk of drastic climate change as a result of the increasing accumulation of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. Volume 1 covers : North Africa region, countries of Central Europe and the former Soviet Union (FSU). Volume 2 : Latin America. The decision to conduct regional rather than specific country studies was made to take into account the commonalities of the shared characteristics of a group of countries. Some of the results and conclusion of the study regarding countries of Central and Eastern Europe, as a group, certain regional aspects emerge. First, they all share the legacies of the Soviet Union, notably in their economic structure, mentality, and methodologies. Second, they depend on each other for a number of goods and services and are trying to transition to a modus operandi appropriate to a market economy framework. The development of regional markets would be a natural outcome of this effort on the supply side. Volume 2 covers progress in the use of renewable energy for rural electrification being made in select countries in the LAC Region...

‣ Energy Sector Reform and the Pattern of the Poor : Energy Use and Supply, A Four Country Study - Botswana, Ghana, Honduras and Senegal

Prasad, Gisela
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
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This project had the following objectives: to undertake a detailed assessment for four countries of the steps taken to reform the energy sector and their impact (or not) on various groups of poor households; to identify patterns of energy use by poor households in various situations; to identify patterns of supply of energy to poor households; and to identify links between the supply and the use of energy by poor households, which are capable of being directly impacted by sector reform. Such links include: the actual use of various sources of energy (e.g. electricity); the form in which the source is used (e.g. battery or grid connection); its associated cost (capital costs and fuel costs); and the nature of the delivery form (state utility or local off-grid company, retailer of batteries or of LPG). The design of a template for future assessment of the impact of sector reform on the poor in other countries. Through the use of local consultants, wherever possible, the engagement in capacity building for economic and policy analysis of the energy sector.

‣ Capturing the Multi-Dimensionality of Energy Access

Bhatia, Mikul; Angelou, Nicolina
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica
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There are two initial challenges in defining and measuring energy access: the absence of a universal definition of energy access and the difficulty of measuring any definition in an accurate manner. The multi-tier approach to measuring energy access proposed in the Sustainable Energy for All (SE4ALL) Global Tracking Framework of 2013 introduces a five-tier measurement methodology based on various energy attributes, such as quantity, quality, affordability, and duration of supply. The approach makes it possible to compute a weighted index of access to energy for a given geographical area. Separate notes focus on multi-tier measurement of energy access for households, productive enterprises, and community institutions. The type of data required for a multi-tiered assessment of energy access in a given area can be obtained through surveys of actual energy availability and use among a scientific sample of all users in a given category (households, enterprises, community institutions). Survey questionnaires elicit information about each energy attribute...

‣ Tools to Understand Social Issues in Energy Tariff and Subsidy Reforms in Europe and Central Asia

World Bank
Fonte: Washington, DC Publicador: Washington, DC
Tipo: Relatório
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This toolkit aims to help World Bank task teams working on energy subsidy and tariff reforms to develop qualitative analysis tools. The tools that are described in this document can help task teams to better understand and address social and political challenges related to these reforms, including impacts of reforms and political economy constraints. This toolkit shares lessons and research tools developed during analyses of energy tariff and subsidy reforms in ECA. In FY13-FY14 alone, the World Bank has been involved in providing guidance to over fourteen countries in the Europe and Central Asia (ECA) region on these reforms. World Bank assistance to ECA countries ranges from advice on the design of energy sector policies to understanding and mitigating poverty and social impacts. This toolkit presents a practical guide to applying the two sets of tools described above. Chapter two presents a brief overview of the types of social and political challenges in energy tariff reforms that motivate the use of qualitative and stakeholder or political economy assessments. Chapter three provides a step-by-step guide to conducting qualitative assessments and stakeholder analyses of energy tariff reforms based on the ECA experience. Annex one contains Terms of Reference (TORs) for all analytical tools described in the Toolkit. Annex two provides a reference table to case studies of PEAs of energy subsidy and tariff reforms conducted by the World Bank.

‣ Feeding the dragon: China's energy security Beijing's strategies in the 21 st century

Schiavo, Emilia
Fonte: Universidade Nacional da Austrália Publicador: Universidade Nacional da Austrália
Tipo: Relatório
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China's energy security has become increasingly important in the 21st century. The growth of China's thriving economy and global standing are of central concern to the establishment of a viable energy security policy. Contextually, China's energy insecurity stems from its shift from major exporter, to major importer of oil in 1993. This marked a serious break from China's traditional energy procurement and China has subsequently remained a net importer in the new millennium. Energy security is therefore defined in this paper as China's ability to obtain an adequate physical supply of energy at a reasonable cost. However, increasingly, wider ramifications apply, including environmental and institutional insecurity as well as China's international relations. China's need for energy security in the 21st century is directly linked to its rapid economic growth and the shift in its demand /supply at the end of the last century. There are two main arguments surrounding China's energy security policy. The first involves securing China's energy supply through traditional means, focusing on strategic oil reserves and developing a strong military force. The converse argument asserts that China's energy demand must be tackled through non- traditional means. China' s energy security depends on the country's ability to minimise energy demand and focus on energy conservation and efficiency. These arguments appear to present competing priorities. However...

‣ FYR Macedonia Energy Policy Paper

World Bank
Fonte: Washington, DC Publicador: Washington, DC
Tipo: Economic & Sector Work :: Energy Study; Economic & Sector Work
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This Report provides an overview of the investment, and policy choices in the Macedonian energy sector. On the investment side, the Report highlights the criteria under which potential investments in a new Combined Heat and Power (CHP) plant, and a new coal mine, should proceed. The Report focuses on reforms that would be required to support the CHP project, namely ratification by Macedonia of the Kyoto Protocol, and resolution of ownership issues related to the gas pipeline linking Skopje to Bulgaria. The Report recommends development of a Skopje gasification project, and a Renewable Energy Project. Regarding reforms to support Macedonia's participation in the regional energy market, the Report concludes that good progress is being made, particularly as regards development of a regulatory framework for the energy industry. The Report recommends that the Electric Power Company of Macedonia (ESM) be restructured, prior to privatization, with hydro assets being separated from thermal generation, and that possible ownership...

‣ Towards a Sustainable Energy Future : The World Bank Group's Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency Action Plan

World Bank
Fonte: Washington, DC Publicador: Washington, DC
Tipo: Economic & Sector Work; Economic & Sector Work :: Energy Study
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The challenge for the development community is to exploit the links between energy and poverty to combat global poverty. The human scale of this challenge is huge. Today, 1.6 billion people lack access to electricity and 2.4 billion rely on traditional biomass for cooking and heating. Indoor air pollution is among leading causes of illness and death in developing countries. It leads to 2 million premature deaths a year. In 2004, the richest 20 percent of the world s population consume 58 percent of total energy, while the poorest 20 percent consume less than 4 percent. The majority of those underserved are the poor in Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia. With increasing populations, 25 years from now, business-as-usual energy scenarios project that even after an expenditure of 16 trillion US dollars on energy investments of which half will be in developing countries, 1.4 billion people will still lack access to electricity. This is a reduction of only 200 million people from today. Over 2.6 billion people in developing countries will continue to rely on traditional forms of biomass for cooking and heating in 2030...

‣ Tajikistan’s Winter Energy Crisis : Electricity Supply and Demand Alternatives

Fields, Daryl; Kochnakyan, Artur; Stuggins, Gary; Besant-Jones, John
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Economic & Sector Work :: Energy-Environment Review; Economic & Sector Work
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Reliable power supply is critical for Tajikistan's economy and poverty reduction goals. Without reliable, affordable electricity throughout the year, Tajikistan's businesses cannot invest, operate and create jobs; hospitals and schools cannot function fully or safely with frequent power cuts during winter; citizens suffer indoor air pollution from burning wood for heating and cooking. Electricity also powers the country's two largest exports: aluminum and agricultural produce, which account for about 30 percent of Tajikistan's annual gross domestic product and almost 45 percent of export earnings. Currently, electricity is the cheapest available resource to heat homes so the residential and commercial sectors are highly dependent on electricity for heat as well as lighting and industrial processes. The Government is responsible for guiding programs that keep power supply apace with demand. The purpose of this study is to assist the Government in further defining ways to meet growing demand for electricity in Tajikistan, with a particular focus on the recurring winter shortages which amount to about 24 percent of winter demand. The study also examines the potential benefits of power exports, particularly during summers when hydropower plants spill energy. The study explores a range of alternatives to meet electricity demand as quickly as possible and develop a short term plan of action to alleviate the social and economic costs of winter shortages. The study focuses on multiple initiatives that can be started immediately and simultaneously...

‣ Energy Intensive Sectors of the Indian Economy : Path to Low Carbon Development

World Bank
Fonte: World Bank Publicador: World Bank
Tipo: Economic & Sector Work :: Energy Study
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The report is divided into seven chapters. Chapter one discusses India's current carbon footprint, the drivers that will contribute to growth in Green House Gas (GHG) emissions, the objectives of the study, and the scope and methodology of the analytical approach. Chapter two provides an overview of each of the sectors covered by the study, along with their respective specific challenges and past performance, and the modeling approach adopted in the study. Chapters three, four, and five provide the specific assumptions and findings of the three scenarios: (1) scenario one, alternatively called five year plans scenario, assumes full implementation of the five year plans and other projections and plans by the government of India; (2) scenario two, alternatively called delayed implementation, more closely follows historical performance in implementation of the five year plans; (3) scenario three, or all-out stretch scenario, adds to scenario one additional steps to increase energy efficiency and low-carbon energy sources Sensitivity analysis is conducted on each scenario. Chapter six provides a brief comparison of the results of the three scenarios...

‣ Turkey - Energy and the Environment : Issues and Options Paper

World Bank
Fonte: Washington, DC Publicador: Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: ESMAP Paper; Publications & Research
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This report represents an initial effort to assist Turkey in developing its energy-environment strategy. It represents the first phase of the Turkey Energy and Environment Review. A previous draft of the paper, translated into Turkish, served as the basic discussion document at an Energy and Environment workshop on the environmental impact of energy development in turkey held in Ankara on November 12, 1999. The five break-out sessions covered improved energy efficiency, inter-fuel substitution, institutional/legal//regulatory measures and market-based instruments, Turkish options to participate in the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), and improved technologies and practices. This revised version of that paper includes the workshop's main findings and recommendations and discusses the priorities for further work suggested by workshop participants.

‣ Policy and Governance Framework for Off-grid Rural Electrification with Renewable Energy Sources

World Bank
Fonte: Washington, DC Publicador: Washington, DC
Tipo: Economic & Sector Work :: Energy Study; Economic & Sector Work
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The objective of the study was to develop an adequate policy and governance framework for off- grid rural electrification by: assessing the effectiveness and key socio-economic factors and governance structures in present off-grid electricity supply schemes; and exploring and testing sustainable decentralized service-delivery models for future large-scale off-grid rural electrification in Pakistan. This study has attempted to develop a policy and governance framework for implementing sustainable large-scale off-grid rural electrification in Pakistan. This was done by assessing the effectiveness of existing policy, governance, and institutional frameworks in actual implementation of off-grid supply (OS) projects in the country; examining regional and global models for off-grid supply which have worked; and exploring which combination of these experiences might work to scale-up access in Pakistan to reach the roughly 7,000 villages which are not likely to be supplied by grid electricity in the near future. Pakistan has in place...

‣ Climate Change and the World Bank Group : Phase One - An Evaluation of World Bank Win-Win Energy Policy Reforms

Independent Evaluation Group
Fonte: Washington, DC: World Bank Publicador: Washington, DC: World Bank
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Publication; Publications & Research :: Publication
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This evaluation is the first of a series that seeks lessons from the World Bank Group's experience on how to carve out a sustainable growth path. The World Bank Group has never had an explicit corporate strategy on climate change against which evaluative assessments could be made. However, a premise of this evaluation series is that many of the climate-oriented policies and investments under discussion have close analogues in the past, and thus can be assessed, whether or not they were explicitly oriented to climate change mitigation. Two sets of win-win policies are perennial topics of discussion in the energy sector: reduction in subsidies and energy-efficiency policies, particularly those relating to end- user efficiency. This report looks at these, and at another apparently win-win topic: gas flaring. Flaring is interesting because of its magnitude, the links to pricing policy and to carbon finance, and the existence of the World Bank-led initiative to reduce flaring.

‣ Fighting Poverty through Decentralized Renewable Energy : Energy SME Conference, Phnom Penh, Cambodia

World Bank
Fonte: Washington, DC Publicador: Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: ESMAP Paper; Publications & Research
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Decentralized energy services remain at the forefront in the fight against poverty. Small and Medium Enterprises (SME) are driving this effort to provide an alternative to state-owned utilities and other large energy providers in poor and developing countries. SMEs allow entrepreneurs to provide alternative energy supply in remote and rural areas while also providing jobs, lowering energy costs, and reducing carbon and other greenhouse gas emissions. The document provided a forum to discuss the specific role of SMEs in the energy sectors of Cambodia and Lao people's democratic Republic and establish a blueprint for SME involvement in alternative energy products and services in other countries.

‣ Transmission Expansion for Renewable Energy Scale-Up : Emerging Lessons and Recommendations

Madrigal, Marcelino; Stoft, Steven
Fonte: Washington, DC: World Bank Publicador: Washington, DC: World Bank
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Publication; Publications & Research :: Publication
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Scaling up renewable energy, such as wind and solar, goes hand-in-hand with the expansion of transmission infrastructure. The richest solar and wind renewable energy sites are often located far away from consumption centers or existing transmission networks. Unlike fossil fuel-based power sources, renewable energy sources are greatly site-constrained and, for this reason, transmission networks need to be expanded to reach the renewable energy sites. Delivering transmission is a challenge, given the dispersion and granularity of renewable sources. Tapping a few hundred megawatts of renewable energy sources, such as wind and solar power, will likely require delivering transmission to several sites. Furthermore, transmission is also required to smooth out the variability of new renewable sources in a large geographical area. For these reasons, countries' renewable energy scale-up efforts are being challenged by the need for timely and efficient delivery of transmission networks. The objective of this report is to present emerging lessons and recommendations on approaches to efficiently and effectively expand transmission networks for renewable energy scale-up. The report focuses on the planning and regulatory aspects of transmission expansion that are relevant to transmission utilities and electricity regulators.

‣ Western Balkans : Scaling Up Energy Efficiency in Buildings

World Bank Group
Fonte: Washington, DC Publicador: Washington, DC
Tipo: Economic & Sector Work :: Energy Study
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Within the six countries of the Western Balkans, Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kosovo, the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia, Montenegro, and Serbia, energy efficiency (EE) is increasingly seen as a key pillar in national energy strategies, helping to enhance energy security, contribute to economic growth, and ensure environmental sustainability. This is for several reasons. EE can reduce the region's heavy reliance on expensive imports, enhance competitiveness and job creation, and reduce the impact of widespread fossil fuel use. EE can also bring important social benefits, helping to improve local air quality (mitigating related adverse health impacts), improve indoor comfort levels through improved heating, and make energy more affordable for low-income families. Finally, EE is seen as a critical tool in helping to mitigate the effects of necessary and planned tariff reforms by offsetting the higher energy costs to the entire economy. To realize these benefits, the Western Balkans countries will have to shift from broad policies and small-scale pilots to scaled-up financing and implementation. There is an urgent need to develop viable financing models in all sectors...

‣ Financing Energy Efficiency Measures for Residential Building Stock : Scaling Up Energy Efficiency in Buildings in the Western Balkans

Kalkum, Bernd
Fonte: World Bank Group, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank Group, Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research; Publications & Research :: Working Paper
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Within the Western Balkans region, a secure energy supply is critical to sustaining economic growth. Currently, the region relies heavily on imported hydrocarbons and maintains high energy intensity relative to Gross Domestic Product, or GDP. This places a huge burden on companies, which require affordable and reliable infrastructure services to be competitive; the public sector, which spends significant budgetary resources on energy; and households, which have to pay a high portion of their income for energy services. As energy pricing is further rationalized, a higher burden will be placed on all sectors, especially poorer households. The residential sector is a significant energy consumer. Its share of total final energy consumption ranges from 28 percent to 32 percent (compared with the EU average of 27 percent). Fairly simple renovations such as insulation, heating system upgrades, and improvements to windows and lighting could reduce consumption in this sector by some 9 percent, with payback periods generally less than 8 years. Such improvements could help ease the impact of future tariff increases while helping reduce the region's projected energy supply and demand gap.

‣ Kingdon’s Multiple Streams Model and the Inclusion of Energy Title IX in the 2002 Farm Bill

Gadri, Nicholas
Fonte: Universidade Duke Publicador: Universidade Duke
Tipo: Masters' project
Publicado em 22/04/2015 Português
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Executive Summary KINGDON’S MULTIPLE STREAMS MODEL AND THE INCLUSION OF ENERGY TITLE IX IN THE 2002 FARM BILL by Nicholas Gadri April 17, 2015. For U.S. policymakers, ensuring the nation’s energy security is essential not only to energy availability, but also to the country's environment, economy, public health, and general safety. Energy security forms the cornerstone of any country’s economic development, and every business and household depends upon it. U.S. dependence on foreign oil for energy renders it vulnerable to conflicts and political instabilities in oil-producing countries, particularly those in the Middle East. Many stakeholders in diverse sectors of the economy—including energy, transportation, and industry—have advocated replacing traditional oil with alternative energy sources to reduce the nation’s reliance on imported oil. The September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks ignited the United States’ debates over energy security. This research addresses energy security as a means of cutting down oil imports from countries associated with terrorism (CBO, 2012). If efforts to ensure energy security are to succeed, we need to understand what makes successful policies successful—that is, how energy policies that do come into existence...