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‣ Validation of dot blot hybridization and denaturing high performance liquid chromatography as reliable methods for TP53 codon 72 genotyping in molecular epidemiologic studies

RABACHINI, Tatiana; TROTTIER, Helen; FRANCO, Eduardo L.; VILLA, Luisa L.
Fonte: BIOMED CENTRAL LTD Publicador: BIOMED CENTRAL LTD
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica
Português
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Background: Mutations in TP53 are common events during carcinogenesis. In addition to gene mutations, several reports have focused on TP53 polymorphisms as risk factors for malignant disease. Many studies have highlighted that the status of the TP53 codon 72 polymorphism could influence cancer susceptibility. However, the results have been inconsistent and various methodological features can contribute to departures from Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium, a condition that may influence the disease risk estimates. The most widely accepted method of detecting genotyping error is to confirm genotypes by sequencing and/or via a separate method. Results: We developed two new genotyping methods for TP53 codon 72 polymorphism detection: Denaturing High Performance Liquid Chromatography (DHPLC) and Dot Blot hybridization. These methods were compared with Restriction Fragment Length Polymorphism (RFLP) using two different restriction enzymes. We observed high agreement among all methodologies assayed. Dot-blot hybridization and DHPLC results were more highly concordant with each other than when either of these methods was compared with RFLP. Conclusions: Although variations may occur, our results indicate that DHPLC and Dot Blot hybridization can be used as reliable screening methods for TP53 codon 72 polymorphism detection...

‣ Tumor glômico subungueal: estudo epidemiológico e retrospectivo, no período de 1991 a 2003; Glomus Tumor: epidemiologic and retrospective study, from 1991 to 2003

Vanti, Adriana Amorim
Fonte: Biblioteca Digitais de Teses e Dissertações da USP Publicador: Biblioteca Digitais de Teses e Dissertações da USP
Tipo: Dissertação de Mestrado Formato: application/pdf
Publicado em 30/11/2004 Português
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O tumor glômico é uma neoplasia benigna de células glômicas, de ocorrência incomum, observado como lesão solitária na falange distal dos quirodáctilos, representando de 1% a 4,5% das neoplasias das mãos. Foram estudados 20 casos de tumor glômico ocorridos no período de 1991 a 2003, nos ambulatórios de Dermatologia do Hospital das Clínicas e do Hospital do Servidor Público Municipal de São Paulo. Analisaram-se os prontuários, avaliando-se os aspectos epidemiológicos, clínicos e exames complementares, dando ênfase ao exame histopatológico e métodos de imagem. Os achados epidemiológicos deste estudo não diferiram significativamente do levantamento bibliográfico pesquisado, confirmando tratar-se de um tumor raro e pouco conhecido. A tríade clássica do tumor glômico "dor paroxística, sensibilidade local e hipersensibilidade à alteração de temperatura" esteve presente em 15 dos 20 casos examinados. Confirmou-se, na casuística analisada, a preferência pelos quirodáctilos e maior acometimento do sexo feminino. Histologicamente, os dados obtidos foram similares aos existentes na literatura, houve predominância do padrão arquitetural celular e a presença de cápsula tumoral, foi encontrada em apenas três casos. Os métodos de imagem não foram utilizados de maneira sistemática como auxiliares diagnóstico do tumor glômico...

‣ Application of DNA typing methods to epidemiology and taxonomy of Candida species.

Scherer, S; Stevens, D A
Fonte: PubMed Publicador: PubMed
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica
Publicado em /04/1987 Português
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Methods are described for extraction of DNA from the yeast form of Candida spp., followed by digestion and electrophoresis of DNA fragments. The resulting gel patterns (greater than 100 bands) were used to type Candida isolates. Four intense bands identified, three of which are present in each isolate (6 to 7, 3.7 or 4.2, and 2.5 to 3 kilobases), appear to be DNA encoding the rRNA. The methods proved to be both simple and reproducible. The patterns were shown to be stable through several hundred doublings from multiple single colonies. A survey of isolates showed that, on the basis of similarity of gel patterns, several Candida species could be sorted into mutually exclusive groups, and subgroups could be created. Analyses of this survey suggested the possible epidemiologic and taxonomic applications of these methods. DNA typing methods appear to offer important potential advantages over phenotyping methods. The methods provide a base for further epidemiologic studies and for further development of techniques, such as the use of cloned probes for studies of DNA homology.

‣ Ionizing Radiation and Chronic Lymphocytic Leukemia

Richardson, David B.; Wing, Steve; Schroeder, Jane; Schmitz-Feuerhake, Inge; Hoffmann, Wolfgang
Fonte: National Institue of Environmental Health Sciences Publicador: National Institue of Environmental Health Sciences
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica
Português
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The U.S. government recently implemented rules for awarding compensation to individuals with cancer who were exposed to ionizing radiation while working in the nuclear weapons complex. Under these rules, chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL) is considered to be a nonradiogenic form of cancer. In other words, workers who develop CLL automatically have their compensation claim rejected because the compensation rules hold that the risk of radiation-induced CLL is zero. In this article we review molecular, clinical, and epidemiologic evidence regarding the radiogenicity of CLL. We note that current understanding of radiation-induced tumorigenesis and the etiology of lymphatic neoplasia provides a strong mechanistic basis for expecting that ionizing radiation exposure increases CLL risk. The clinical characteristics of CLL, including prolonged latency and morbidity periods and a low case fatality rate, make it relatively difficult to evaluate associations between ionizing radiation and CLL risk via epidemiologic methods. The epidemiologic evidence of association between external exposure to ionizing radiation and CLL is weak. However, epidemiologic findings are consistent with a hypothesis of elevated CLL mortality risk after a latency and morbidity period that spans several decades. Our findings in this review suggest that there is not a persuasive basis for the conclusion that CLL is a nonradiogenic form of cancer.

‣ Lung cancer and air pollution.

Cohen, A J; Pope, C A
Fonte: PubMed Publicador: PubMed
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica
Publicado em /11/1995 Português
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Epidemiologic studies over the last 40 years suggest rather consistently that general ambient air pollution, chiefly due to the incomplete combustion of fossil fuels, may be responsible for increased rates of lung cancer. This evidence derives from studies of lung cancer trends, studies of occupational groups, comparisons of urban and rural populations, and case-control and cohort studies using diverse exposure metrics. Recent prospective cohort studies observed 30 to 50% increases in lung cancer rates associated with exposure to respirable particles. While these data reflect the effects of exposures in past decades, and despite some progress in reducing air pollution, large numbers of people in the United States continue to be exposed to pollutant mixtures containing known or suspected carcinogens. It is not known how many people in the United States are exposed to levels of fine respirable particles that have been associated with lung cancer in recent epidemiologic studies. These observations suggest that the most widely cited estimates of the proportional contribution of air pollution to lung cancer occurrence in the United States based largely on the results of animal studies, may be too low. It is important that better epidemiologic research be conducted to allow improved estimates of lung cancer risk from air pollution among the general population. The development and application of new epidemiologic methods...

‣ Hierarchical regression for epidemiologic analyses of multiple exposures.

Greenland, S
Fonte: PubMed Publicador: PubMed
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica
Publicado em /11/1994 Português
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Many epidemiologic investigations are designed to study the effects of multiple exposures. Most of these studies are analyzed either by fitting a risk-regression model with all exposures forced in the model, or by using a preliminary-testing algorithm, such as stepwise regression, to produce a smaller model. Research indicates that hierarchical modeling methods can outperform these conventional approaches. These methods are reviewed and compared to two hierarchical methods, empirical-Bayes regression and a variant here called "semi-Bayes" regression, to full-model maximum likelihood and to model reduction by preliminary testing. The performance of the methods in a problem of predicting neonatal-mortality rates are compared. Based on the literature to date, it is suggested that hierarchical methods should become part of the standard approaches to multiple-exposure studies.

‣ Level of response in epidemiologic studies using the card-back system to contact subjects.

Mueller, B A; McTiernan, A; Daling, J R
Fonte: PubMed Publicador: PubMed
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica
Publicado em /11/1986 Português
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Response levels obtained from two methods of patient contact to obtain subject consent for participation in epidemiologic studies were compared. When a signed, return card was required prior to further contact, 70 to 83 per cent of patients consented to participate, compared with consistently higher levels (89 to 93 per cent) obtained with telephone contact. These data suggest that the likelihood of obtaining the high response level required in epidemiologic studies is increased by methods that do not rely on a return card.

‣ Children’s Exposure to Diagnostic Medical Radiation and Cancer Risk: Epidemiologic and Dosimetric Considerations

Linet, Martha S.; Kim, Kwang pyo; Rajaraman, Preetha
Fonte: PubMed Publicador: PubMed
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica
Português
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While the etiology of most childhood cancers is largely unknown, epidemiologic studies have consistently found an association between exposure to medical radiation during pregnancy and risk of childhood cancer in offspring. The relation between early life diagnostic radiation exposure and occurrence of pediatric cancer risks is less clear. This review summarizes current and historical estimated doses for common diagnostic radiologic procedures as well as the epidemiologic literature on the role of maternal prenatal, children’s postnatal and parental preconception diagnostic radiologic procedures on subsequent risk of childhood malignancies Risk estimates are presented according to factors such as the year of birth of the child, trimester and medical indication for the procedure, and the number of films taken. The paper also discusses limitations of the methods employed in epidemiologic studies to assess pediatric cancer risks, the effects on clinical practice of the results reported from the epidemiologic studies, and clinical and public health policy implications of the findings. Gaps in understanding and additional research needs are identified. Important research priorities include nationwide surveys to estimate fetal and childhood radiation doses from common diagnostic procedures...

‣ Protecting Privacy of Shared Epidemiologic Data without Compromising Analysis Potential

Cologne, John; Grant, Eric J.; Nakashima, Eiji; Chen, Yun; Funamoto, Sachiyo; Katayama, Hiroaki
Fonte: Hindawi Publishing Corporation Publicador: Hindawi Publishing Corporation
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica
Português
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Objective. Ensuring privacy of research subjects when epidemiologic data are shared with outside collaborators involves masking (modifying) the data, but overmasking can compromise utility (analysis potential). Methods of statistical disclosure control for protecting privacy may be impractical for individual researchers involved in small-scale collaborations. Methods. We investigated a simple approach based on measures of disclosure risk and analytical utility that are straightforward for epidemiologic researchers to derive. The method is illustrated using data from the Japanese Atomic-bomb Survivor population. Results. Masking by modest rounding did not adequately enhance security but rounding to remove several digits of relative accuracy effectively reduced the risk of identification without substantially reducing utility. Grouping or adding random noise led to noticeable bias. Conclusions. When sharing epidemiologic data, it is recommended that masking be performed using rounding. Specific treatment should be determined separately in individual situations after consideration of the disclosure risks and analysis needs.

‣ The Diesel Exhaust in Miners Study: V. Evaluation of the Exposure Assessment Methods

Stewart, Patricia A.; Vermeulen, Roel; Coble, Joseph B.; Blair, Aaron; Schleiff, Patricia; Lubin, Jay H.; Attfield, Mike; Silverman, Debra T.
Fonte: Oxford University Press Publicador: Oxford University Press
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica
Português
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Exposure to respirable elemental carbon (REC), a component of diesel exhaust (DE), was assessed for an epidemiologic study investigating the association between DE and mortality, particularly from lung cancer, among miners at eight mining facilities from the date of dieselization (1947–1967) through 1997. To provide insight into the quality of the estimates for use in the epidemiologic analyses, several approaches were taken to evaluate the exposure assessment process and the quality of the estimates. An analysis of variance was conducted to evaluate the variability of 1998–2001 REC measurements within and between exposure groups of underground jobs. Estimates for the surface exposure groups were evaluated to determine if the arithmetic means (AMs) of the REC measurements increased with increased proximity to, or use of, diesel-powered equipment, which was the basis on which the surface groups were formed. Estimates of carbon monoxide (CO) (another component of DE) air concentrations in 1976–1977, derived from models developed to predict estimated historical exposures, were compared to 1976–1977 CO measurement data that had not been used in the model development. Alternative sets of estimates were developed to investigate the robustness of various model assumptions. These estimates were based on prediction models using: (i) REC medians rather AMs...

‣ Modeling Covariates of Self-Perceived and Epidemiologic Notions of Risk for Acquiring STIs/HIV among Military Personnel: A Comparative Analysis

Mgbere, Osaro; Monjok, Emmanuel; Abughosh, Susan; Ekong, Ernest; Holstad, Marcia M.; Essien, E. James
Fonte: PubMed Publicador: PubMed
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica
Publicado em /03/2013 Português
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This study examined the socio-demographic and selected behavioral characteristics associated with self-perceived and epidemiologic notions of risk for acquiring STIs/HIV infection using data from a cross-sectional survey involving 346 consenting female military personnel from two cantonments in Southwestern Nigeria. Findings revealed significant discordance in participants’ risk status based on the two assessment methods, with Kappa coefficients ranging from −0.021 to 0.115. Using epidemiologic assessment as the “gold standard”, 45.4% of the study population were able to accurately assessed their risk levels through self-perception with significant (p≤.01) socio-demographic variations. Multivariate logistic regression analyses indicate that STIs/HIV risk models using both self-perceived and epidemiologic notions of risk were significantly determined by different set of covariates. It is recommended that STIs/HIV prevention intervention should integrate the identified covariates and be targeted at changing individual risk behaviors and perceptions, as well as the social contexts in which risky behaviors occur in the military population.

‣ Semi-automated Scoring of Triple-probe FISH in Human Sperm: Methods and Further Validation1

Perry, Melissa J.; Chen, Xing; McAuliffe, Megan E.; Maity, Arnab; Deloid, Glen M.
Fonte: PubMed Publicador: PubMed
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica
Português
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Although the frequency and consequence of sperm chromosomal abnormalities are considerable, few epidemiologic studies in large samples have been conducted to investigate etiologic risk factors. This is, in part, attributable to the labor intensive demands of manual sperm FISH scoring. As part of an epidemiologic study investigating environmental risk factors for aneuploidy among men attending a hospital-based fertility clinic, a semi-automated method of slide scoring was further validated and used to estimate sex chromosome sperm disomy frequency in a large number of samples. Multiprobe fluorescence in situ hybridization (FISH) for chromosomes X, Y, and 18 was used to determine sex chromosome disomy in sperm nuclei. Semi-automated scoring methods were used to quantify X disomy (sperm FISH genotype XX18), Y disomy (YY18), and XY disomy (XY18). The semi-automated results were compared to the results from manual scoring in ten slides. The semi-automated method was then used to estimate sex chromosome disomy frequency in 60 men. Of 10 slides scored, significant differences between the manual and semi-automated results were seen primarily in one slide that was of poor quality because of over swollen nuclei. Among 60 men analyzed using the semi-automated method...

‣ A Comparison of Three Methods to Measure Asthma in Epidemiologic Studies: Results from the Danish National Birth Cohort

Hansen, Susanne; Strøm, Marin; Maslova, Ekaterina; Mortensen, Erik Lykke; Granström, Charlotta; Olsen, Sjurdur F.
Fonte: Public Library of Science Publicador: Public Library of Science
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica
Publicado em 11/05/2012 Português
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Asthma is a heterogeneous outcome and how the condition should be measured to best capture clinically relevant disease in epidemiologic studies remains unclear. We compared three methods of measuring asthma in the Danish National Birth Cohort (n>50.000). When the children were 7 years old, the prevalence of asthma was estimated from a self-administered questionnaire using parental report of doctor diagnoses, ICD-10 diagnoses from a population-based hospitalization registry, and data on anti-asthmatic medication from a population-based prescription registry. We assessed the agreement between the methods using kappa statistics. Highest prevalence of asthma was found using the prescription registry (32.2%) followed by the self-report (12.0%) and the hospitalization registry (6.6%). We found a substantial non-overlap between the methods (kappa = 0.21–0.38). When all three methods were combined the asthma prevalence was 3.6%. In conclusion, self-reported asthma, ICD-10 diagnoses from a hospitalization registry and data on anti-asthmatic medication use from a prescription registry lead to different prevalences of asthma in the same cohort of children. The non-overlap between the methods may be due to different abilities of the methods to identify cases with different phenotypes...

‣ Methods and measures for the description of epidemiologic contact networks

Riolo, Christopher S.; Koopman, James S.; Chick, Stephen E.
Fonte: Springer-Verlag Publicador: Springer-Verlag
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica
Publicado em /09/2001 Português
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This article describes new methods to characterize epidemiologic contact networks that involve links that are being dynamically formed and dissolved. The new social network measures are designed with an epidemiologic interpretation in mind. These methods are intended to capture dynamic aspects of networks related to their potential to spread infection. This differs from many social network measures that are based on static networks. The networks are formulated as transmission graphs (TGs), in which nodes represent relationships between two individuals and directed edges (links) represent the potential of an individual in one relationship to carry infection to an individual in another relationship. Network measures derived from transmission graphs include “source counts,” which are defined as the number of prior relationships that could potentially transmit infection to a particular node or individual.

‣ A Multisource Approach to Improving Epidemiologic Estimates: Application to Global B-Cell Malignancies

Mitchell, Meghan E.; Lowe, Kimberly; Fryzek, Jon
Fonte: International Scholarly Research Network Publicador: International Scholarly Research Network
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica
Publicado em 31/12/2012 Português
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The compilation of comprehensive, worldwide epidemiologic data can inform hypotheses on cancer etiology and guide future drug development. These statistics are reported by a multitude of sources using varying methods; thus, compiling a complete database of these statistics is a challenge. To this end, this paper examined the usefulness of a novel, multisource approach—extracting data from the peer-reviewed literature, online reports, and query systems from cancer registries and health agencies and directly contacting cancer registry personnel—for building a comprehensive, multinational epidemiologic cancer database. The major B-cell malignancies were chosen as the cancer subtype to test this approach largely because their epidemiology has not been well characterized in the peer-reviewed literature. We found that a multisource approach yields a more comprehensive epidemiologic database than what would have been possible with the use of literature searches alone. In addition, our paper revealed that cancer registries vary considerably in their methodology, comprehensiveness, and ability to gather information on specific B-cell malignancy subtypes. Collectively, this paper demonstrates the feasibility and value of a multisource approach to gathering epidemiologic data.

‣ The Role of Computational Epidemiology and Risk Analysis in the Fight Against HIV/AIDS

Tameru, Berhanu; Nganwa, David; Bogale, Asseged; Robnett, Vinaida; Habtemariam, Tsegaye
Fonte: PubMed Publicador: PubMed
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica
Publicado em 22/07/2012 Português
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Substantial progress in the understanding of HIV and CD4 cell dynamics using computational models undergirded by sound epidemiologic and mathematical principles has been achieved. The early stages of the applications of these models were based on relatively simple mathematical models that considered the body as a one-compartment system. In spite of these models attractiveness due to the experimental and/or mathematical standpoints, the underlying simplification neglected a lot of important factors affecting the population dynamics both on macro (human) and micro (cellular) population levels. This simplification also affected the kinetics linked to the immunology, infection and chemotherapy dynamics throughout the host. Epidemiologic research involves the study of a complex set of host, environmental and causative agent factors as they interact to impact health and diseases in any given population whether biotic or abiotic. This leads in generating large data sets which require the use of powerful computational methods for studying these large and complex models by means of computational epidemiologic methods. Another dimension of a great challenging problem to public health decision makers is that of emerging diseases, as they have to face and deal with a lot of uncertainty at the early stages of disease outbreaks. However...

‣ Atrazine and Pregnancy Outcomes: A Systematic Review of Epidemiologic Evidence

Goodman, Michael; Mandel, Jack S; DeSesso, John M; Scialli, Anthony R
Fonte: BlackWell Publishing Ltd Publicador: BlackWell Publishing Ltd
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica
Português
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Atrazine (ATR) is a commonly used agricultural herbicide that has been the subject of epidemiologic studies assessing its relation to reproductive health problems. This review evaluates both the consistency and the quality of epidemiologic evidence testing the hypothesis that ATR exposure, at usually encountered levels, is a risk factor for birth defects, small for gestational age birth weight, prematurity, miscarriages, and problems of fetal growth and development. We followed the current methodological guidelines for systematic reviews by using two independent researchers to identify, retrieve, and evaluate the relevant epidemiologic literature on the relation of ATR to various adverse outcomes of birth and pregnancy. Each eligible paper was summarized with respect to its methods and results with particular attention to study design and exposure assessment, which have been cited as the main areas of weakness in ATR research. As a quantitative meta-analysis was not feasible, the study results were categorized qualitatively as positive, null, or mixed. The literature on ATR and pregnancy-related health outcomes is growing rapidly, but the quality of the data is poor with most papers using aggregate rather than individual-level information. Without good quality data...

‣ Understanding the Genetic Susceptibility and Epidemiologic Risk Factors of Intracranial Aneurysms

Lai, Pui Man Rosalind
Fonte: Harvard University Publicador: Harvard University
Tipo: Thesis or Dissertation; text Formato: application/pdf
Português
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Background and Objectives Intracranial aneurysms affect up to 3% of the population and carry a high mortality and morbidity prognosis when presented with aneurysm rupture and spontaneous subarachnoid hemorrhage (SAH). Despite its severity on patient prognosis and cost to society, the pathologic mechanism of cerebral aneurysm formation and rupture remains unclear. The roles of genetics and epidemiology have been implicated to play major roles in the pathogenesis of aneurysm and patient outcome after SAH. Our studies serve to investigate both the genetic and epidemiologic factors associated with cerebral aneurysms through studying genome-wide association study (GWAS) of mitochondrial genes and the Nationwide Inpatient Sample (NIS) database. Methods For our genetic study of cerebral aneurysms, we analyzed data from two existing GWAS databases targeting the nuclear-encoded mitochondrial gene loci. We identified single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) within 500kb of 794 candidate nuclear-encoded mitochondrial proteins using the human mitochondrial protein and MitoProteome databases. Plink was used to identify SNPs associated with cerebral aneurysms and a meta-analysis approach was used to calculate the pooled odds ratio (OR) and 95% confidence interval (CI) of the two combined studies. In addition...

‣ Epidemiologic study of anisometropia in students of Natal, Brazil; Estudo epidemiológico da anisometropia em estudantes da cidade de Natal, Brasil

Garcia, Carlos Alexandre de Amorim; Dantas, Erymar de Araújo; Souza, Araken Britto de; Uchoa, Raquel Araújo Costa; Oréfice, Fernando
Fonte: Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Norte Publicador: Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Norte
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica
Português
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To perform an epidemiologic study in students in Natal/Brazil,with relation to refractional anisometropia, evaluating criteria such as: gender, age, and association with strabismus and amblyopia. Methods: A study of 1,024 students randomly selected from several districts of Natal/Brazil was undertaken by the Department of Ophthalmology of the Federal University of Rio Grande do Norte (UFRN), observing the following criteria of ≥ 2 spherical or cylindrical diopter refractional anisometropia relating it to sex, age, association with strabismus, amblyopia and anisometropia classification. Results: We found a prevalence of 2% (N=21) anisometropia in the students. The female gender predominated with 81% (N=17). In students with anisometropia, we observed an association with strabismus in 9.5% of cases (N=2), both with exotropia. The association of anisometropia with amblyopia occurred in 47.6% of the cases (N=10), with 8 cases of unilateral amblyopia and 2 cases of bilateral amblyopia. Conclusions: There was a predominance of anisometropia in females, and an increased prevalence of strabismus and amblyopia in students with anisometropiaTo perform an epidemiologic study in students in Natal/Brazil, with relation to refractional anisometropia...

‣ A method for forecasting the seasonal dynamic of malaria in the municipalities of Colombia

Velásquez,Javier Oswaldo Rodríguez
Fonte: Organización Panamericana de la Salud Publicador: Organización Panamericana de la Salud
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica Formato: text/html
Publicado em 01/03/2010 Português
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OBJECTIVE: To develop a methodology for forecasting the seasonal dynamic of malaria outbreaks in the municipalities of Colombia. METHODS: Epidemiologic ranges were defined by multiples of 50 cases for the six municipalities with the highest incidence, 25 cases for the municipalities that ranked 10th and 11th by incidence, 10 for the municipality that ranked 193rd, and 5 for the municipality that ranked 402nd. The specific probability values for each epidemiologic range appearing in each municipality, as well as the S/k value-the ratio between entropy (S) and the Boltzmann constant (k)- were calculated for each three-week set, along with the differences in this ratio divided by the consecutive sets of weeks. These mathematical ratios were used to determine the values for forecasting the case dynamic, which were compared with the actual epidemiologic data from the period 2003-2007. RESULTS: The probability of the epidemiologic ranges appearing ranged from 0.019 and 1.00, while the differences in the S/k ratio between the sets of consecutive weeks ranged from 0.23 to 0.29. Three ratios were established to determine whether the dynamic corresponded to an outbreak. These ratios were corroborated with real epidemiological data from 810 Colombian municipalities. CONCLUSIONS: This methodology allows us to forecast the malaria case dynamic and outbreaks in the municipalities of Colombia and can be used in planning interventions and public health policies.