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‣ Comparing Two Epidemiologic Surveillance Methods to Assess Underestimation of Human Stampedes in India

Ngai, Ka Ming; Lee, Wing Yan; Madan, Aditi; Sanyal, Saswata; Roy, Nobhojit; Burkle, Frederick M.; Hsu, Edbert B.
Fonte: Public Library of Science Publicador: Public Library of Science
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica
Publicado em 23/09/2013 Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
Background: Two separate but complementary epidemiologic surveillance methods for human stampedes have emerged since the publication of the topic in 2009. The objective of this study is to estimate the degree of underreporting in India. Method: The Ngai Search Method was compared to the Roy Search Method for human stampede events occurring in India between 2001 and 2010. Results: A total of 40 stampedes were identified by both search methods. Using the Ngai method, 34 human stampedes were identified. Using a previously defined stampede scale: 2 events were class I, 21 events were class II, 8 events were class III, and 3 events were class IV. The median deaths were 5.5 per event and median injuries were 13.5 per event. Using the Roy method, 27 events were identified, including 9 events that were not identified by the Ngai method. After excluding events based on exclusion criteria, six additional events identified by the Roy’s method had a median of 4 deaths and 30 injuries. In multivariate analysis using the Ngai method, religious (6.52, 95%CI 1.73-24.66, p=0.006) and political (277.09, 95%CI 5.12-15,001.96, p=0.006) events had higher relative number of deaths. Conclusion: Many causes accounting for the global increase in human stampede events can only be elucidated through systematic epidemiological investigation. Focusing on a country with a high recurrence of human stampedes...