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‣ Os preços são muito rígidos? A mesma questão e as novas respostas encontradas através da modelagem computacional baseada em agentes; Are prices too sticky? The same question and the new achieved answers from the agent-based computational modeling

Cantagalo, Michel
Fonte: Biblioteca Digitais de Teses e Dissertações da USP Publicador: Biblioteca Digitais de Teses e Dissertações da USP
Tipo: Dissertação de Mestrado Formato: application/pdf
Publicado em 19/03/2010 Português
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A moeda fiduciária permitiu o surgimento da política monetária e esta vêm ganhando cada vez mais destaque entre as ferramentas e políticas econômicas. Porém, não existe consenso no meio acadêmico sobre a influência da política monetária à economia, alguns acreditam que ela apenas resulta em variações nominais e outros que ela pode afetar fatores reais da economia. Diversas pesquisas feitas comprovam, ao menos no curto prazo, a existência do chamado ajuste nominal incompleto, onde choques monetários afetam os valores reais dos agregados econômicos. Porém, quais são os custos e externalidades que advem desta rigidez de preços? Tentando oferecer novas respostas a esta questão, remontamos o reconhecido modelo de Ball e Romer (1989) sob a perspectiva da complexidade e dos modelos computacionais baseados em agentes. Os resultados encontrados nesta nova perspectiva foram muito diferentes dos resultados encontrados no modelo original, com a possibilidades de vantagens e externalidades positivas da rigidez, inserção de problemas distribuitivos, valores mais significativos de custos privados e sociais vinculados à rigidez, tudo isso devido à heterogeneidade presente no modelo computacional.; The fiduciary money allowed the emergence of monetary policy...

‣ On testing the Phillips curves, the IS Curves, and the interaction between fiscal and monetary policies

Maka, Alexis
Fonte: Fundação Getúlio Vargas Publicador: Fundação Getúlio Vargas
Tipo: Tese de Doutorado
Português
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Esta tese é composta por três ensaios sobre testes empíricos de curvas de Phillips, curvas IS e a interação entre as políticas fiscal e monetária. O primeiro ensaio ("Curvas de Phillips: um Teste Abrangente") testa curvas de Phillips usando uma especificação autoregressiva de defasagem distribuída (ADL) que abrange a curva de Phillips Aceleracionista (APC), a curva de Phillips Novo Keynesiana (NKPC), a curva de Phillips Híbrida (HPC) e a curva de Phillips de Informação Rígida (SIPC). Utilizamos dados dos Estados Unidos (1985Q1--2007Q4) e do Brasil (1996Q1--2012Q2), usando o hiato do produto e alternativamente o custo marginal real como medida de pressão inflacionária. A evidência empírica rejeita as restrições decorrentes da NKPC, da HPC e da SIPC, mas não rejeita aquelas da APC. O segundo ensaio ("Curvas IS: um Teste Abrangente") testa curvas IS usando uma especificação ADL que abrange a curva IS Keynesiana tradicional (KISC), a curva IS Novo Keynesiana (NKISC) e a curva IS Híbrida (HISC). Utilizamos dados dos Estados Unidos (1985Q1--2007Q4) e do Brasil (1996Q1--2012Q2). A evidência empírica rejeita as restrições decorrentes da NKISC e da HISC, mas não rejeita aquelas da KISC. O terceiro ensaio ("Os Efeitos da Política Fiscal e suas Interações com a Política Monetária") analisa os efeitos de choques na política fiscal sobre a dinâmica da economia e a interação entre as políticas fiscal e monetária usando modelos SVARs. Testamos a Teoria Fiscal do Nível de Preços para o Brasil analisando a resposta do passivo do setor público a choques no superávit primário. Para a identificação híbrida...

‣ Política fiscal e monetária ótimas em um modelo de médio porte para o Brasil pós plano real

Lobato, Carlos Eduardo
Fonte: Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul Publicador: Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul
Tipo: Dissertação Formato: application/pdf
Português
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Uma questão fundamental na macroeconomia é: Como um governo benevolente deveria conduzir as políticas monetária e fiscal no longo prazo e nos ciclos de negócios? Esta dissertação visa elucidar essa questão caracterizando as políticas monetária e fiscal ótimas para o Brasil no período pós Plano Real . Para tanto, será feito uso de um modelo de médio porte tal como proposto por Schmitt-Grohé e Uribe (2005). Médio porte, nada mais é do que a inclusão de quatro fontes de rigidez nominal: rigidez de preços, rigidez de salários, demanda por moeda por parte dos indivíduos e uma restrição cash-in-advance sobre a massa salarial das firmas. E cinco fontes de rigidez real: custos de ajustamento do investimento, utilização de capacidade variável, formação de hábitos, competição imperfeita nos mercados de produtos e fatores e taxação distorciva. Verificou-se que a estabilidade dos preços constitui essencialmente a política ótima.; A fundamental question in macroeconomics is how a benevolent government should conduct monetary and fiscal policies in the long-term and in the business cycles? This thesis aims to elucidate this question characterizing the optimal monetary and fiscal policies to Brazilin the period after the Real Plan. To do so...

‣ Reforço da privacidade através do controlo da pegada digital

Macedo, Ricardo Joaquim Pereira de
Fonte: Universidade do Minho Publicador: Universidade do Minho
Tipo: Dissertação de Mestrado
Publicado em //2013 Português
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Dissertação de mestrado em Engenharia Informática; Atualmente existe ainda uma relação assimétrica entre os utilizadores e os fornecedores de serviços disponibilizados pela internet. É prática comum, aquando da apresentação de um serviço, que o utilizador seja questionado sobre a aceitação, ou não, de um conjunto de políticas referentes ao uso de informação privada facultada ao fornecedor (por exemplo, a morada, o número de telefone, preferências, etc...). Geralmente os utilizadores aceitam a política com base na confiança que têm no fornecedor e/ou no contrato formal que lhes é apresentado. Os casos de violação de privacidade por parte de alguns fornecedores de serviços, vendendo ou facultando informação privada sobre os seus clientes a outros, são amplamente conhecidos e resultam em grande medida da falta de controlo que os utilizadores finais têm sobre a informação que entregam aos fornecedores. Este problema também tem grande impacto no ambiente empresarial. Quase toda a informação de uma organização é guardada em claro. Mesmo que esta seja guardada num local seguro, aqueles que conhecerem bem o sistema poderão ter indevidamente acesso a informação privada da organização. Além disto...

‣ Sticky Dollars: Inertia in the Evolution of Federal Allocations for HIV Care through the Ryan White HIV/AIDS Program

Martin, Erika G.; Keenan, Patricia S.
Fonte: PubMed Publicador: PubMed
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica
Publicado em //2011 Português
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While substantial research examines the dynamics prompting policy adoption, few studies have assessed whether enacted policies are modified to meet distributional equity concerns. Past research suggests that important forces limit such adaptation, termed here “policy inertia.” We examine whether block grant allocations to states from the Ryan White HIV/AIDS Program have evolved in response to major technological and political changes. We assess the impact of initial allocations on later funding patterns, compared to five counterfactual distributional equity standards. Initial allocations strongly predict future allocations; in comparison, the standards are weak predictors, suggesting the importance of policy inertia. Our methodology of employing multiple measures of equity as a counterfactual to policy inertia can be used to evaluate the adaptability of federalist programs in other domains.

‣ Exchange Rate Dynamics Redux

Obstfeld, Maurice; Rogoff, Kenneth S.
Fonte: University of Chicago Press Publicador: University of Chicago Press
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica
Português
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We develop an analytically tractable two-country model that marries a full account of global macroeconomic dynamics to a supply framework based on monopolistic competition and sticky nominal prices. The model offers simple and intuitive predictions about exchange rates and current accounts that sometimes differ sharply from those of either modern flexible-price intertemporal models or traditional sticky-price Keynesian models. Our analysis leads to a novel perspective on the international welfare spillovers due to monetary and fiscal policies.; Economics

‣ Optimal Devaluations

Hevia, Constantino; Nicolini, Juan Pablo
Fonte: Banco Mundial Publicador: Banco Mundial
Português
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According to the conventional wisdom, when an economy enters a recession and nominal prices adjust slowly, the monetary authority should devalue the domestic currency to make the recession less severe. The reason is that a devaluation of the currency lowers the relative price of non-tradable goods, and this reduces the necessary adjustment in output relative to the case in which the exchange rate remains constant. This paper uses a simple small open economy model with sticky prices to characterize optimal fiscal and monetary policy in response to productivity and terms of trade shocks. Contrary to the conventional wisdom, in this framework optimal exchange rate policy cannot be characterized just by the cyclical properties of output. The source of the shock matters: while recessions induced by a drop in the price of exportable goods call for a devaluation of the currency, those induced by a drop in productivity in the non-tradable sector require a revaluation.

‣ Post-Macroeconomics : Reflections on the Crisis and Strategic Directions Ahead

Monga, Celestin
Fonte: Banco Mundial Publicador: Banco Mundial
Português
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For decades, many researchers argued that economics had nothing to fear from enriching itself with lessons and advances from other disciplines. Unfortunately, these suggestions were either neglected or dismissed upfront in what was then arbitrarily considered mainstream economics. The global crisis has led even Nobel Prize winners to acknowledge that the problem facing economists and policy makers today is mostly intellectual - it is the need to confront the systematic failure of thinking, especially on the part of macroeconomists. Despite its unprecedented magnitude and heavy financial, human, and intellectual cost, the crisis certainly does not invalidate everything that has been learned about macroeconomics. However, the costs highlight some of mistakes of the dominant intellectual macroeconomic framework. Post-macroeconomics should not be understood as another metanarrative of the end of metanarratives. The use of the prefix post here suggests and emphasizes much more than temporal posterity. Post-macroeconomics should follow from macroeconomics more than it follows after macroeconomics. The theorizing of post-macroeconomics is therefore neither systematically oppositional nor hegemonic. It does not advocate a - dialectic opposition - between macroeconomics and post-macroeconomics. Rather...

‣ When Should We Worry about Inflation?

Espinoza, Raphael; Leon, Hyginus; Prasad, Ananthakrishnan
Fonte: Oxford University Press on behalf of the World Bank Publicador: Oxford University Press on behalf of the World Bank
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica
Português
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At what level should inflation be a concern? From a growth perspective, high and rising levels of inflation as in 2006–2008 raise concerns that inflation, if uncontained, could undermine growth. On the other hand, higher levels of inflation could create more space for using monetary policy to reduce nominal and real interest rates during financial crises. A nonlinear growth regression for 165 countries over 1960–2007 shows that for developing countries, inflation above 10 percent quickly hurts growth. For advanced economies, there is no specific threshold: in the medium term, higher inflation hurts growth for any initial level of inflation, suggesting that there is a real cost to maintaining higher inflation as a buffer.

‣ Sticky Feet : How Labor Market Frictions Shape the Impact of International Trade on Jobs and Wages

Hollweg, Claire H.; Lederman, Daniel; Rojas, Diego; Ruppert Bulmer, Elizabeth
Fonte: Washington, DC: World Bank Publicador: Washington, DC: World Bank
Português
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This report analyzes the paths by which developing country labor markets adjust to permanent trade-related shocks. Trade shocks can bring about reallocation of labor between industries, but the presence of labor mobility costs implies economy-wide losses because they extend the period of economic adjustment. This report focuses primarily on the adjustment costs faced by workers after a trade shock, because of magnitude and welfare implications and policy relevance. From a policy viewpoint, understanding the relative magnitudes of labor mobility and adjustment costs can help policymakers design trade policies that are consistent with employment objectives, can be complemented by labor policies, or support programs to facilitate labor transitions, or both. To complement and validate the analysis based on structural choice models, the study designed a distinct empirical approach using reduced-form econometric estimation strategies. This approach examines the impact of structural reforms and worker displacement on labor market outcomes. This makes it possible to estimate the time required to adjust to a trade-related shock...

‣ Growth Volatility in Paraguay : Sources, Effects, and Options

World Bank
Fonte: Washington, DC Publicador: Washington, DC
Português
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The purpose of the current study is to contribute to a deeper understanding of growth volatility in Paraguay and to provide an input into the discussion on how to better manage it. In particular, the study will ask three questions: i) what are the sources of volatility in Paraguay? ii) How does growth volatility, in particular that arising from the strong dependence on the agricultural sector, impact the rest of the economy? iii) What are optimal policies for managing the types of volatility observed in Paraguay?

‣ Growth Volatility in Paraguay : Sources, Effects, and Options, Volume 2. Supplementary Volume with Selected Background Papers

World Bank
Fonte: Washington, DC Publicador: Washington, DC
Português
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This supplementary volume of the study on Growth Volatility in Paraguay—Sources, Effects, and Options provides a number of background papers and material that was prepared as part of this study. The topics are closely linked with the overarching story telling presented in the first volume of the report. 1) Business Cycles Accounting for Paraguay, by Viktoria Hnatkovska and Friederike (Fritzi) Koehler-Geib. 2) Agricultural Performance and Macroeconomic Outcomes in Paraguay, by Hakan Berument. 3) Paraguayan Agricultural and Macroeconomic Performance: A Wavelet Approach, by Hakan Berument. 4) A study of the Volatility of the Agricultural GDP in Paraguay and its impact in the Rest of the Economy, by Dionisio Borda, Franchesco Anichini, and Julio Ramirez.

‣ New Evidence on the Cyclicality of Fiscal Policy

Carneiro, Francisco G.; Garrido, Leonardo
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Trabalho em Andamento
Português
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This paper presents new evidence on the patterns of cyclicality in the fiscal policy stance of developing and industrialized countries over a period of more than three decades covering 180 countries during 1980–2012. First, the paper considers issues of robustness in the choice of the proxy for fiscal cyclicality by using alternative filtering methods to check whether this influences the results and leads to any differences in a country’s reported within-period average, and across-period changes in fiscal stance. Second, a country-specific approach is used to split the sample into sub-periods based on a test for structural break in the series of real gross domestic product per capita. Third, the paper investigates the extent to which countries behave pro-cyclically or counter-cyclically in different phases of the business cycle. In line with earlier findings in the literature, the analysis confirms that there is a causal link running from stronger institutions to less pro-cyclical fiscal policy, even after controlling for the endogeneity of institutions and other determinants of fiscal policy.

‣ The Glass Ceiling in Europe: Why Are Women Doing Badly in the Labour Market?

Booth, Alison L
Fonte: Centre for Economic Policy Research, RSSS, ANU Publicador: Centre for Economic Policy Research, RSSS, ANU
Tipo: Working/Technical Paper
Português
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Average gender pay gaps have absorbed the interest of economists for many years. More recently studies have begun to explore the degree to which observed gender wage gaps might differ across the wages distribution. The stylised facts from these studies, summarised in the first part of the paper, are that the gender pay gap in Europe is typically increasing across the wages distribution. This finding - more pronounced in the private than the public sector - has been interpreted as a glass ceiling effect. The existence of this glass ceiling suggests that the average gender pay gap in Europe is mainly due to the gender gap towards the top of the wages distribution. What explains these stylised facts? We briefly outline some relevant hypotheses in the second part of the paper. A fundamental challenge for labour economists is to identify the extent to which these stylised facts are due to policies and institutions, discrimination, to other unobservable factors, or to fundamental differences between men and women. Finally, we briefly summarise the policy initiatives that might be introduced to deal with gender wage gaps.; Paper prepared for the conference on “Gender and Ethnic Discrimination” organised by the Economic Council of Sweden on 30 October 2006.; no

‣ The relationship between climate variation and selected infectious diseases: Australian and Chinese perspectives.

Zhang, Ying
Fonte: Universidade de Adelaide Publicador: Universidade de Adelaide
Tipo: Tese de Doutorado Formato: 2594163 bytes; 78369 bytes; application/pdf; application/pdf
Publicado em //2007 Português
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Background Climate variation has affected diverse physical and biological systems worldwide. Population health is one of the most important impacts of climate variation. Although the impact of climate variation on infectious diseases has been of significant concern recently, the relationship between climate variation and infectious diseases, including vector-borne diseases and enteric infections, needs greater clarification. Australia is grappling with developing politically acceptable responses to global warming. In China, few studies have been conducted to examine the effect of climate variation, including global warming, on population health. As residents of developing countries may suffer more from climate change compared with people living in more developed countries, this thesis has significance for both countries. Aims This study aims to contribute to a better understanding of the impact of climate variation on population health, and to provide scientific evidence for policy makers, researchers, public health practitioners and local communities in the development of public health strategies at an early stage, in order to prevent or reduce future risks associated with ongoing climate change. The objectives of this study include: (1) to quantify the association between climate variation and selected vectorborne diseases and enteric infections in different climatic regions in Australia and China; (2) to project the future burden of selected vector-borne diseases and enteric infections based on climate change scenarios in different climatic regions in Australia and China. Methods This ecological study has two components. The first uses time-series analyses to quantify the relationship between meteorological variables and infectious diseases...

‣ Control de acceso en redes sociales web

González-Manzano, Lorena; González-Tablas, Ana Isabel; Fuentes, José María de; Ramos Álvarez, Benjamín
Fonte: Universidade Carlos III de Madrid Publicador: Universidade Carlos III de Madrid
Tipo: info:eu-repo/semantics/submittedVersion; info:eu-repo/semantics/article; info:eu-repo/semantics/conferenceObject Formato: application/pdf
Publicado em //2012 Português
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Recientemente, motivados por la expansión de internet y la aparición de las Redes Sociales Web (RSW), han surgido gran cantidad de problemas y retos asociados con la privacidad. Uno de los problemas principales es el diseño y la implementación de sistemas que posibiliten a los usuarios la gestión del control de acceso. A este respecto, pero en el contexto de las RSW, se han identificado una serie de requisitos. Sin embargo, en la literatura, los trabajos existentes sólo satisfacen parcial o completamente algunos de ellos. En este artículo, se propone primero un modelo de control de acceso, SoNeUCONABC, el cual extiende el modelo UCONABC, junto con la especificación de un mecanismo que lo implementa. En segundo lugar, se proporcionan directrices para el establecimiento de mecanismos que, desplegados sobre SoNeUCONABC, satisfagan todos los requisitos. Palabras; Proceeding of: XII Reunión Española sobre Criptología y Seguridad de la Información (RECSI 2012), Donostia-San Sebastián, Spain, 4-7 sept. 2012

‣ Rockets and Feathers : Asymmetric Petroleum Product Pricing in Developing Countries

Bacon, Robert; Kojima, Masami
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Working Paper; Publications & Research
Português
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This paper aims to provide those working in developing countries with a review of the issues that can help address the four questions: 1) are petroleum product margins excessively high at certain times?; 2) Does asymmetry of price responses to cost changes exist and, if so, what are the possible reasons that could account for it?; 3) If there is asymmetry of petroleum product price responsiveness, how large is the cost to consumers compared with symmetric pricing?; And 4) what policies can combat excessive petroleum product margins? The discussion focuses mainly on liberalized markets, because, in markets subject to price control, the pattern of responses of prices to cost changes will be determined partially or largely by the Government. Chapter one describes asymmetric pricing and the structure of the oil market, focusing in particular on the links between the retail sector and the rest of the chain of supply. The chapter next briefly reviews types of legislation that exist in liberalized markets to protect consumers from monopolistic or collusive behavior in petroleum products pricing. Chapter two describes different types of firms' pricing behavior...

‣ Energy Policies and the Mexican Economy

World Bank
Fonte: Washington, DC Publicador: Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: ESMAP Paper; Publications & Research
Português
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The report looks at energy policies in Mexico (both a major energy producer, and consumer) within its economic context, how the energy sector is managed, and how it performs, and at the implications for economic growth and public finances, and by extension, for broader social policies which depend heavily on federal funding. The energy sector finds itself in a vicious circle - reduced budget and borrowing capacity are leading to insufficient sector investment - resulting in declines in future production, hence government revenue. Breaking this vicious circle is a major challenge, given that attracting finance for energy sector investment on a major scale, without government support, lies at the heart of the problem. The report reviews the choices to increase efficiency, and electricity subsidies, as well as those for efficiently expanding oil and gas output. Three key areas for reform are discussed: a) achieving permanent gains in operational efficiency of the power and hydrocarbons sectors, to lower costs and improve service quality; b) restructuring electricity subsidies...

‣ Evaluating Sliding and Sticky Target Policies by Measuring Temporal Drift in Acyclic Walks Through a Web Archive

Ainsworth, Scott G.; Nelson, Michael L.
Fonte: Universidade Cornell Publicador: Universidade Cornell
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica
Publicado em 21/09/2013 Português
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When a user views an archived page using the archive's user interface (UI), the user selects a datetime to view from a list. The archived web page, if available, is then displayed. From this display, the web archive UI attempts to simulate the web browsing experience by smoothly transitioning between archived pages. During this process, the target datetime changes with each link followed; drifting away from the datetime originally selected. When browsing sparsely-archived pages, this nearly-silent drift can be many years in just a few clicks. We conducted 200,000 acyclic walks of archived pages, following up to 50 links per walk, comparing the results of two target datetime policies. The Sliding Target policy allows the target datetime to change as it does in archive UIs such as the Internet Archive's Wayback Machine. The Sticky Target policy, represented by the Memento API, keeps the target datetime the same throughout the walk. We found that the Sliding Target policy drift increases with the number of walk steps, number of domains visited, and choice (number of links available). However, the Sticky Target policy controls temporal drift, holding it to less than 30 days on average regardless of walk length or number of domains visited. The Sticky Target policy shows some increase as choice increases...

‣ Macroeconomic implications of customer-supplier and worker-employer relationships.

Yip, Paul Sau-Leung
Fonte: London School of Economics and Political Science Thesis Publicador: London School of Economics and Political Science Thesis
Tipo: Thesis; NonPeerReviewed Formato: application/pdf
Publicado em //1991 Português
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This thesis investigates a few examples of customer-supplier and worker-employer relationships which are thought to be important to macroeconomic analysis. Among the literature on sticky price, we suggest that the theory of mark-up pricing and the theory of customer-supplier relationships advocated by Okun (1981), deserve more attention. We also suggest that there are at least three hypotheses implicit in the mark-up equation: (1) a sticky pricing response to demand shocks; (2) a relatively fast pricing response to cost shocks; and (3) 1 % change in average cost will cause an equiproportionate rise in price. In Chapter 2, a reputation cost of changing price is used to summarize Okun's discussion on suppliers' tendency to pledge the constancy of price for some reasonably long period (a type of customer-supplier relationship). A microfoundation model is then built to investigate the three hypothesis in details. With regard to the first hypothesis, it is shown that (a) the reputation cost of changing price; (b) uncertainties about the persistence and generality of an observed demand shock; and (c) their interactions can jointly account for an extensive degree of price stickiness. We also explain that such a modelling of price stickiness could be more convincing than that by the Menu Cost Hypothesis. With regard to the second and third hypotheses...