In light of the proliferation of exceptionally large fiscal stimuli to ward off the recession triggered by the 2008 global economic and financial crisis in most advanced economies, this paper revisits the fiscal adjustment and growth nexus in Sub-Saharan Africa. Using transfer functions, it quantifies expected losses in terms of aggregate output largely attributed to a systematic implementation of pro-cyclical expenditure switching and reducing policies to achieve low deficit targets throughout the decades of adjustments. The results consistently highlight a much higher predicted aggregate output under the hypothesized counter-cyclical fiscal expansion option. This consistent outcome suggests that the output gap would have been significantly smaller in the region if countries had drawn on stop-and-go policies of fiscal expansion to sustainably raise the stock of capital investments.

This book assembles methodologies and techniques to evaluate the poverty impact of macroeconomic policies. It takes as a departure point a companion volume, the impact of economic policies on poverty and income distribution: evaluation techniques and tools. This volume was primarily a review of microeconomic techniques aimed at assessing policies that are directly concerned with the welfare of poor households or individuals such as changing the level of cash transfers to the poorest households, increasing price subsidies for basic consumer goods, and the like. In addition, the second part of that earlier publication introduced basic techniques to deal with the poverty impact of macroeconomic policies that by definition are not targeted and affect the whole population. This volume presents a comprehensive array of macro-micro modeling frameworks. It begins by highlighting the limitation of macroeconomic models that use representative household groups to link macroeconomic policies and microeconomic data. It then moves to more complexes...

This paper develops a general equilibrium model to analyze the marginal and joint impacts that alternative macroeconomic, education, and social protection policies have on the dynamics of employment and unemployment by skill level. The model introduces a disaggregated treatment of the labor market that incorporates an informal sub-sector in every sector of the economy. The analysis explicitly models the distribution of skills in the labor force by following over time sex-age cohorts across various levels of the education system and in the labor market. And it integrates a module that projects the revenues and expenditures of the pension system. The model is applied to the case of Morocco. Simulations show that even under positive assumptions regarding economic growth, unemployment rates are likely to remain close to current levels in the next decade. The paper argues that only an integrated package of policies that affect the macro-economy, the investment climate, and the education and social protection systems would allow sustainable creation of enough "good quality" jobs.

Inevitable as structural adjustment has been, and successful as it might be, the engagement with poverty in Africa is going to be a long-term affair. If growth does not restart, the reverse trickle-down may further jeopardize the most vulnerable groups in the population, involving high transitional costs of adjustment. Those costs arise from the reduction in real incomes engendered by tighter monetary and fiscal policies, from increased unemployment resulting from lags in supply responses, from price adjustment in product and factor markets, and from reduced availability of social services following the contraction of public expenditures. The Social Dimensions of Adjustment (SDA) program is to be reviewed as a strategic reaction to that nascent concern about the position of the poor in the process of structural adjustment. It is seen as a catalyst of effective action aimed at poverty reduction in the framework of structural adjustment programs. SDA delineated four components: analytical research, information gathering...

Green growth policies confront firms and workers with adjustments that may create welfare costs for different segments of the population and cause reductions in near-term actual versus potential gross domestic product. There is little evidence on the cost of adjustment to climate change measures, and only limited evidence for more general environmental policies, especially in developing countries. Therefore, this paper canvasses the research on adjustment costs to trade policies to draw analogies and highlight differences compared with the potential impacts of green growth policies. Trade policies affect prices and work directly on technology choice. In the presence of adjustment costs, firms may experience impacts on wages, employment, and incentives to adopt alternative technologies. Both types of trade policy impacts may be amplified by technology availability and credit constraints. Many green growth policies are likely to work via the same mechanisms, that is, taxes on emissions or changes in technology requirements. However...

The author studies the links between macroeconomic adjustment and poverty. First, he summarizes some of the recent evidence on poverty in the developing world. Second, he reviews the various channels through which macroeconomic policies affect the poor. Third, the author emphasizes the role of the labor market. He develops an analytical framework that captures some of the main features of the urban labor market in developing countries and studies the effects of fiscal adjustment on wages, employment, and poverty. Fourth, he presents cross-country regressions linking various macroeconomic and structural variables to poverty. The author finds that output growth and real exchange rate depreciations tend to lower poverty, while illiteracy, income inequality, and macroeconomic volatility tend to increase poverty. In addition, the impact of growth on poverty appears to be asymmetric, and to result from a significant relationship between episodes of increasing poverty and negative growth rates.

The author presents an internally consistent macroeconomic framework that could be used as a first step toward a more comprehensive, quantitative and qualitative assessment of the adjustment alternatives facing Uzbekistan. The three-gap framework focuses on the major imbalances of the economy for evaluating policy choices facing Uzbekistan. It emphasizes the domestic, and external factors that determine economic outcomes, and welfare. The author attempts to quantify two policy scenarios-gradual as against an accelerated policy implementation strategy. He finds that an aggressive adjustment policy would indeed improve most performance, and welfare indicators. Two major ingredients of such an aggressive adjustment strategy are the unification of the exchange rate, and implementation of current account convertibility in the balance of payments. The author also draws attention to the relative importance of external financing, and the sustainability of the balance of payments under alternative structural adjustment paths facing Uzbekistan.

The authors present a dynamic, quantitative macroeconomic framework designed for analyzing the impact of adjustment policies and exogenous shocks on poverty and income distribution. They emphasize the role of labor market segmentation, urban informal activities, the impact of the composition of public expenditure on supply and demand, and credit market imperfections. Numerical simulations for a prototype low-income country highlight the importance of accounting for the various channels through which poverty alleviation programs and debt relief may ultimately affect the poor.

This report analyzes the paths by which developing country labor markets adjust to permanent trade-related shocks. Trade shocks can bring about reallocation of labor between industries, but the presence of labor mobility costs implies economy-wide losses because they extend the period of economic adjustment. This report focuses primarily on the adjustment costs faced by workers after a trade shock, because of magnitude and welfare implications and policy relevance. From a policy viewpoint, understanding the relative magnitudes of labor mobility and adjustment costs can help policymakers design trade policies that are consistent with employment objectives, can be complemented by labor policies, or support programs to facilitate labor transitions, or both. To complement and validate the analysis based on structural choice models, the study designed a distinct empirical approach using reduced-form econometric estimation strategies. This approach examines the impact of structural reforms and worker displacement on labor market outcomes. This makes it possible to estimate the time required to adjust to a trade-related shock...

Degree of market integration has often been used as a gauge of the success of market liberalisation and structural adjustment policies in developing countries. China is both an emerging economy and the world’s largest transitional economy. The target of its economic reform is the formation of an efficient market-oriented economy. Since it provides a wealth of evidence of the workings of a transitional economy, the performance of China’s market is of great interest to transitional economists. There are two reasons to believe that market integration must be tested if the progress of economic reform in China is to be determined. The first reason relates to debates about assessment of market performance. On the one hand, China has been praised for facilitating market competition amongst state-owned, collective and private sectors. On the other hand, Young argues that, despite market-oriented reform, segments of the Chinese economy freed from central control tend to exploit rent-seeking opportunities implicit in distortions of the economy. As Young puts it, ‘distortions beget distortion’. It is possible China’s ongoing reform will stimulate sustained economic growth. If Young’s prediction is accurate, however, China’s markets have been getting less rather than more integrated and sustained economic growth in the future is unlikely. It is necessary...

This note presents the lessons from the assessments that are likely to be most useful to country directors, and task teams preparing new adjustment operations. The five adjustment loans (two in Argentina, and one each in Korea, Malaysia, and Russia) show that applying basic lessons is not always straightforward, however, and, sometimes involves making tradeoffs among Bank objectives. It is stipulated policy objectives are more likely to be achieved, if there is substantial borrower ownership. To this end, support for new policies should be established, towards generating broad political ownership, including engaging key players in incoming administrations, to help build ownership of reforms. Moreover, combined, the Bank's country knowledge and global expertise, can generate quality operations, that forge local partnerships, draws on prior experience, and maintains a minimum knowledge base. This is to say, setting priorities, and sequencing reforms should be carefully included during the design phase, with particular attention to avoid excessively broad conditionality...

The authors show that labor market policies and institutions affect the effectiveness of economic reform programs. They compare annual growth rates across 119 countries, using data from 449 World Bank adjustment credits and loans between 1980 and 1996. The results indicate that countries with relatively rigid labor markets experienced deeper recessions before adjustment and slower recoveries afterward. The results also disentangle the mechanisms through which labor market rigidity operates. They find that minimum wages and mandatory benefits do not hurt growth. But the relative size of organized labor (in government and elsewhere) appears to matter. Labor market rigidity seems to be relevant more for political reasons than for economic reasons. The authors' findings suggest that not enough attention has been paid to vocal groups (urban, middle-class groups) that stand to lose from economic reform. The implications of the findings for policymakers: There should be less focus on deregulating the labor market and more on defusing the opposition of (vocal) losers. The results are robust to changes in measurement...

In this paper, developed as part of the World Bank's Poverty Reduction Strategy Sourcebook, the authors examine how to implement trade liberalization as part of a strategy for alleviating poverty in developing countries. They discuss trade policy instruments, institutions, complementary policies, sector issues, adjustment policies, and safety nets in an integrated approach to trade policy as a tool for poverty alleviation. The authors examine the patterns or models of trade policy that have been successful in alleviating poverty. They discuss the role of tariffs, nontariff barriers, contingent protection (such as safeguards and antidumping), special import regimes (such as duty drawback), export taxes, export subsidies, and trade-related institutions (such as standards, marketing, export finance, customs clearance, and regional trade arrangements). The authors also discuss policies that complement successful trade reform, including macroeconomic stability, a competitive exchange rate, flexible labor markets...

The authors use a panel of manufacturing firms to analyze the adjustment process in capital blue collar and white collar employment in Uruguay during a period of trade liberalization when average tariff protection fell from 43 to 14 percent. They calculate the desired factor levels arising from a counterfactual profit maximization in the absence of adjustment costs, generating a measure of factor shortages or surpluses. The average estimated output gap for 1982-95 is 2 percent. The authors' policy analysis shows that trade openness affected the adjustment functions of all three factors of production. Highly protected sectors adjust less when creating jobs (reducing labor shortages) than sectors with low protection. This may be due to fears of policy reversal in highly protected sectors. Also, highly protected sectors adjust more easily (than low protection sectors) when destroying jobs (reducing labor surpluses), especially in the case of blue collar labor. This suggests that trade protection may in fact destroy rather than create jobs within industries, as firms in highly protected sectors are more reluctant to hire and more ready to fire than firms in sectors with low protection. The results for capital are qualitatively similar but quantitatively smaller...

The authors focus on policies facilitating firm adjustment to globalization. They briefly review the effects of trade and investment liberalization on firms, focusing on within-industry effects. They postulate that governments' role in supporting the process is to (1) ensure that firms face "right" incentives to adjust, and (2) intervene in areas where market failures are present. Their main message is that while many policies could be adopted to address market failures, they need to be carefully designed and implemented in a stable macroeconomic environment. An institutional infrastructure that supports the functioning of modern markets is most important. Proactive support policies of whatever stripe should be subject to cost-benefit analysis, based on the existence of an identified market failure, and monitored for performance and cost effectiveness. Transparency and accountability are critical in ensuring that interventions accomplish their intended objectives rather than being vehicles for rent seeking.

Using data collected during several missions, the author finds that the principal reasons for low revenue mobilization are (1) the adverse fiscal impact of trade liberalization, (2) the defiscalization of agriculture in the 1970s, (3) the collapse of the uranium boom in the 1980s, and (4) the poor record of the VAT in mobilizing revenue. The large reduction in tariffs during the 1980s and 1990s in the context of structural adjustment programs and West African regional integration initiatives had adverse effects on trade tax revenue during the period 1980 2003. But higher import levels after 1994 succeeded in partially mitigating the revenue losses. The experience of Niger shows that without accompanying macroeconomic policies, parallel improvements in tax and customs administration, and success in mobilizing domestic taxes, most notably the VAT, trade reform can have adverse fiscal consequences. Using a SMART model partial equilibrium analysis developed by UNCTAD for researchers and negotiators at multilateral trade rounds, the author simulated three different tariff shocks to test the fiscal and trade implications of additional trade liberalization in Niger. First, the preferred tariff regime in terms of overall fiscal and job creation impact was the harmonized Swiss formula in contrast to a 10 and 15 percent uniform tariff. Second...

This study reviews the Bank's experience with adjustment lending to Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), from FY80 to FY96. During this period, a total of 163 adjustment operations, for $15 billion have been approved to 37 countries. Of these, a total of 121 have already been evaluated at completion. The study is based on information from all the operations, both completed and ongoing. It focuses on the performance, outcomes, and impact at the country level. Performance is measured first in terms of compliance with conditionality in adjustment lending, and then an overall compliance rating is constructed for each country. The compliance rating is used to classify the countries into three groups: those with good, weak and poor compliance records. Design issues, most notably insufficient attention to borrower ownership, were already identified in the 1993 OED report on adjustment in SSA. The present study revisited and quantified the design issues identified in all of the 121 evaluations at completion. The detailed analysis of compliance with conditionality allows us to look at which types of policy reforms are more frequently included in adjustment operations...

This article addresses the increasing influence of economic rationalities in global health over the past 30 years by examining the genealogy of one economic strategy – taxation – that has become central to international anti-smoking initiatives in the global South. It argues that this genealogy sits uncomfortably with the usual story about economics and global health, which reduces the economisation of international health to neoliberal structural adjustment policies aimed at stabilisation, liberalisation and privatisation and laments their detrimental effect on health. While not disputing these policies' importance and damaging impact, the genealogy of tobacco taxes outlined in this article shows that the economisation of global health is not only about neoliberal structural adjustment policies but also about sin taxes, market failures and health economics. By stressing how changes in health like the global South's epidemiological transition can impact on economics and how beneficial taxation can be for health, it also shows that the relation between economics and health is not always unidirectional and detrimental to the latter. In doing so, the article contributes to the critique of the often mechanical use of neo-liberalism to explicate change and calls for other stories about the economisation of global health to be told.

Ao ajuste estrutural que se seguiu à crise da dívida no Terceiro Mundo, no início dos anos 80 - e ainda persiste como um ajuste permanente -, parece ter ocorrido um correspondente" ajuste urbano". Em ambos os casos, o Banco Mundial e, na América Latina, o BID, tiveram ação decisiva, em parceria com as elites e tecnocracias locais. As estratégias de ação dessas duas instituições financeiras, apesar de sua forte interferência nas políticas públicas dos países em desenvolvimento, constituem um tema novo e ainda pouco abordado pela pesquisa acadêmica. Em nosso caso, o objetivo foi desvendar o modelo de cidade que tem sido por elas defendido e qual seu significado. Na dissertação que realizei pela FAUUSP, constatei que os empréstimos do Banco Mundial e do BID - que aparecem aos gestores públicos como" tábuas de salvação" em tempos de crise -, não são" neutros" e carregam consigo uma agenda afirmativa: pretendem modelar um determinado padrão de uso do recurso público e de organização do Estado. As duas instituições difundem políticas públicas que seguem critérios empresariais de rentabilidade e um modelo de gestão estatal terceirizada, à mercê de um corpo técnico privado - formado por gerenciadoras de projeto...

Research on the effects of Structural Adjustment Policies (SAPs), implemented in Third World countries since the early 1980s, has been dominated, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa, by the analysis of quantitative, national-level data. The relationship between gender and SAPs at the household level has been largely neglected. This thesis examines the above relationship in Harare, Zimbabwe where the government's recent adoption of the Economic Structural Adjustment Programme, ESAP (1991-95) has allowed a study of the processes of change at the household level following changes in macro-economic and social policies. Quantitative and qualitative research methods were used to provide an integrated picture of changes in the lives of women and men in a random sample of 100 households in one typical high-density suburb in Harare. A base-line study was carried out in mid-1991 and the same households followed up in mid-1992. Gender-specific changes in employment and income, household expenditure, domestic work and involvement in social organisations were investigated as well as responses to the dramatic rises in the cost of living following measures implemented under ESAP. The research shows that almost all households have been negatively affected by ESAP...