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‣ Emerging Economies in the 2000s : Real Decoupling and Financial Recoupling
Fonte: Banco Mundial
Publicador: Banco Mundial
Português
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#ABSOLUTE VALUE#ABSOLUTE VALUES#ADVANCED COUNTRIES#ADVANCED ECONOMIES#ANNUAL GROWTH#ANNUAL GROWTH RATES#AR#ARBITRAGE#ASSET CLASS#ASSET HOLDINGS#ASSET MANAGER
The paper documents an intriguing
development in the emerging world in the 2000s: a decoupling
from the business cycle of advanced countries, combined with
the strengthening of the co-movements in the main emerging
market assets that predates the synchronized sell-off during
the crisis. In addition, the paper tests the hypothesis that
financial globalization, to the extent that it creates a
common, global investor base for emerging markets, could
lead to a tighter asset correlation despite the weaker
economic ties. While an examination of the impact of
alternative financial globalization proxies does not yield
conclusive results, a closer look at global emerging market
equity and bond funds shows that the latter indeed foster
financial recoupling during downturns, reflecting the fact
that they trade near their respective benchmarks and respond
to withdrawals by liquidating holdings across the board.
Link permanente para citações:
‣ How Resilient Were Emerging Economies to the Global Crisis?
Fonte: Banco Mundial
Publicador: Banco Mundial
Português
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#ACCESS TO FUNDS#ADVANCED COUNTRIES#ADVANCED ECONOMIES#ASSET PRICES#ASSET VALUES#ASSETS#BALANCE SHEET#BALANCE SHEETS#BANK CLAIMS#BANK LOANS#BANKRUPTCY
This paper studies the cross-country
incidence of the 2008-2009 global crisis and documents a
structural break in the way emerging economies responded to
the global shock. Contrary to popular perceptions, emerging
market economies suffered growth collapses comparable, or
even larger, to those experienced by advanced economies
during the crisis. With such large financial and real shock,
most of the world economy came to a halt when the crisis
hit, with most countries resuming their pre-crisis growth
rates afterwards. While emerging economies were not able to
avoid the crisis collapse, they grew at a higher rate during
the post crisis, relative to before and, as usual, to
advanced countries. Moreover, emerging economies initiated
their recovery sooner. Breaking with the past, emerging
economies were able to conduct countercyclical policies, and
became more similar to developed countries in softening the
impact of the crisis and in their ability to pursue
expansionary policies.
Link permanente para citações:
‣ Banking Flows and Financial Crisis : Financial Interconnectedness and Basel III Effects
Fonte: Banco Mundial
Publicador: Banco Mundial
Português
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#ADVANCED COUNTRIES#ADVANCED ECONOMIES#ADVANCED ECONOMY#AGENCY PROBLEMS#AMOUNT OF CAPITAL#AMOUNT OF LOANS#ASSET PRICES#ASYMMETRIC INFORMATION#BALANCE OF PAYMENTS#BALANCE SHEET#BALANCE SHEETS
This paper examines the factors that
determine banking flows from advanced economies to emerging
markets. In addition to the usual determinants of capital
flows in terms of global push and local pull factors, it
examines the role of bilateral factors, such as growth
differentials and economic size, as well as contagion
factors and measures of the depth in financial
interconnectedness between lenders and borrowers. The
analysis finds profound differences across regions. In
particular, in spite of the severe impact of the global
financial crisis, banking flows in emerging Europe stand out
as a more stable region than is the case in other developing
regions. Assuming that the determinants of banking flows
remain unchanged in the presence of structural changes, the
authors use these results to explore the short-term
implications of Basel III capital regulations on banking
flows to emerging markets.
Link permanente para citações:
‣ Global Fiscal Adjustment and Trade Rebalancing : Global Fiscal Adjustment and Trade Rebalancing
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC
Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Português
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#ACCOUNTING#ADJUSTMENT COSTS#ADVANCED COUNTRIES#ADVANCED COUNTRY#ADVANCED ECONOMIES#ADVANCED ECONOMY#AFFILIATED ORGANIZATIONS#AGGREGATE CONSUMPTION#AGGREGATE DEMAND#AGGREGATE INVESTMENT#AGRICULTURE
The emergence of substantial fiscal
deficits and a large build up of government debt in major
advanced economies will inevitably lead to a period of
fiscal consolidation in coming years. In an earlier paper,
McKibbin and Stoeckel (2010) explored the effects of this
fiscal adjustment in advanced economies on the global
economic outlook. This paper focuses on the differences
between the impacts of fiscal policy in advanced versus
emerging economies. In particular, the need for more fiscal
spending on infrastructure in emerging economies and the
need for fiscal consolidation in advanced economies leads
naturally to the question of what this asymmetric fiscal
adjustment might do to global trade balances as well as
global economic growth over the coming decades. The
adjustment needed in both regions is substantial and the
asymmetry of the adjustment implies important consequences
for trade and capital flows between regions as well as asset
price adjustments within and between regions.
Link permanente para citações:
‣ From Political to Economic Awakening in the Arab World : The Path of Economic Integration - Deauville Partnership Report on Trade and Foreign Direct Investment, Volume 1. Overview Report
Fonte: Washington, DC
Publicador: Washington, DC
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
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#ACCESS TO INFORMATION#ADVANCED ECONOMIES#ADVERSE CONSEQUENCES#AGREEMENT ON TRADE#AGRICULTURE#BARRIERS#BENEFITS#BILATERAL TRADE#BONDS#BUDGETARY SUPPORT#BUSINESS CLIMATE
The forces unleashed by the Arab
political awakening have the power to be transformational.
One critical parameter of success will be whether the Arab
political awakening is accompanied by a concurrent economic
awakening. Economic integration through increased trade and
foreign direct investment (FDI) is one key means available
in the short to medium term to policy makers to put the
Partnership countries on a higher path of sustainable
economic growth and in a position to decisively tackle the
problem of unemployment, especially youth unemployment. To
be sure, skepticism abounds in the region over the merits of
trade and FDI and the integrity of the private sector in
light of "crony capitalism," where the benefits of
past policies are perceived to have accrued only to a
well-connected few. Leadership is needed in both Partnership
countries and Deauville partners to provide a credible
long-term vision and explain the mutual benefits of economic
integration. One such powerful vision could be the pursuit
of a partnership aimed at gradually promoting four key
freedoms in the Mediterranean and beyond: the free movement
of goods...
Link permanente para citações:
‣ From Political to Economic Awakening : The Path of Economic Integration - Deauville Partnership Report on Trade and Foreign Direct Investment, Volume 2. Main Report
Fonte: Washington, DC
Publicador: Washington, DC
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
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#ADVANCED ECONOMIES#ADVERSE CONSEQUENCES#AGREEMENT ON TRADE#AGRICULTURE#BALANCE OF PAYMENTS#BILATERAL TRADE#BUDGETARY SUPPORT#BUSINESS CLIMATE#BUSINESS ENVIRONMENT#CAPACITY BUILDING#CAPITAL ACCUMULATION
The forces unleashed by the Arab
political awakening have the power to be transformational.
One critical parameter of success will be whether the Arab
political awakening is accompanied by a concurrent economic
awakening. Economic integration through increased trade and
foreign direct investment (FDI) is one key means available
in the short to medium term to policy makers to put the
Partnership countries on a higher path of sustainable
economic growth and in a position to decisively tackle the
problem of unemployment, especially youth unemployment. To
be sure, skepticism abounds in the region over the merits of
trade and FDI and the integrity of the private sector in
light of "crony capitalism," where the benefits of
past policies are perceived to have accrued only to a
well-connected few. Leadership is needed in both Partnership
countries and Deauville partners to provide a credible
long-term vision and explain the mutual benefits of economic
integration. One such powerful vision could be the pursuit
of a partnership aimed at gradually promoting four key
freedoms in the Mediterranean and beyond: the free movement
of goods...
Link permanente para citações:
‣ Monetary Policy and Macroprudential Regulation : Whither Emerging Markets
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC
Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Português
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#ACCUMULATION OF RESERVES#ADVANCED ECONOMIES#AGGREGATE DEMAND#ARBITRAGE#ASSET PRICE#ASSET PRICE BOOMS#ASSET PRICES#ASSETS#BANKING SECTOR#BANKING SYSTEM#BILL
Confidence in combining
inflation-targeting-cum-flexible-exchange-rate regimes with
isolated microprudential regulation as a means to guarantee
both macroeconomic and financial stability has been
shattered by the scale and synchronization of asset price
booms and busts that preceded the current global financial
crisis. This paper has a two-fold purpose. On the one hand,
it explores the implications and challenges of acknowledging
the need for coordination between monetary policies and
macroprudential regulation. On the other, it points out
specific challenges currently faced by central bankers in
emerging economies, as they cope with policy and regulatory
coordination in a context of debt overhang and
unconventional monetary policies in advanced economies.
Link permanente para citações:
‣ Post-Crisis Growth in Developing Countries : A Special Report of the Commission on Growth and Development on the Implications of the 2008 Financial Crisis
Fonte: Washington, DC: World Bank
Publicador: Washington, DC: World Bank
Português
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In May 2008, the Commission released the growth report: strategies for sustained growth and inclusive development. At that time, the financial systems of the United States and Europe were under stress. Commodity prices were also spiking, posing particular difficulties for developing countries because of the impact on the poor and on potential future inflation. But no one foresaw the full magnitude of the crisis that erupted in the fall of 2008, more than a year ago. The crisis was a destructive malfunction of the financial sectors of the advanced economies, which spread rapidly to the real economy and to the rest of the globe. Even countries far from the source of the crisis had to cope with capital volatility, tight credit, and rapidly falling trade. At the request of several members of the Commission, Commission held a workshop on the crisis and its implications for developing countries. Commission followed standard procedure of asking for help and insight from a distinguished group of scholars, analysts, and practitioners. This report is an outgrowth of that process. It is an attempt to look at the crisis and its aftermath from the point of view of developing countries. Commission wanted to assess the impact of these events, and determine if the growth strategies recommended needed major revision...
Link permanente para citações:
‣ Chasing the Shadows : How Significant is Shadow Banking in Emerging Markets?
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC
Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
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#ACCESS TO CREDIT#ACCOUNTING#ADVANCED COUNTRIES#ADVANCED ECONOMIES#ALTERNATIVE FUNDING#ALTERNATIVE SOURCES OF FINANCING#ARBITRAGE#ASSET BACKED SECURITIES#ASSET MANAGERS#ASSET PRICES#ASSET VALUES
Broadly defined as credit intermediation
involving entities and activities outside the regular
banking system, shadow banking raises important policy
concerns. Given significant challenges with data
availability, the size, nature and significance of shadow
banking in emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs)
are even less discussed and understood. Shadow banking in
EMDEs generally does not involve long, complex, opaque
chains of intermediation, as is often the case in advanced
economies. Nonetheless, it can pose systemic risks, both
directly, as its importance in the total financial system
grows (with the concomitant credit, market, and liquidity
risks that its participants undertake), and indirectly
through its interconnectedness with the regulated banking
system. At the same time, shadow banks also play an
important role in channeling alternative funding sources to
EMDEs, especially as deleveraging pressures from European
banks continue. This suggests that policy makers need to
manage trade-offs carefully to ensure that shadow banks
provide alternative but safe sources of funding to the
private sector without generating additional systemic risks.
Based on a snapshot of selected EMDEs in East Asia and in
Central and Eastern Europe...
Link permanente para citações:
‣ Emerging Players in Global Mining
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC
Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Português
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#ACCESS TO CAPITAL#ACQUISITION#ACQUISITIONS#ADVANCED ECONOMIES#AFFILIATED ORGANIZATIONS#ALUMINUM#BALANCE SHEETS#BANK BORROWING#BANKING SYSTEMS#BANKS#BASE METALS
Companies from the emerging economies
are a growing feature of the global mining industry. This
document looks at who these companies are and the factors
behind their growth. The contribution of the emerging
economies to the global supply of minerals since 2000 is
striking. With their growth in production exceeding that of
the advanced economies in almost every commodity, the share
of these countries in global mineral production mounted
steadily. Several factors have combined to provide a boost
to the role and fortunes of emerging economy companies in
mining over recent years. Five of the most important are:
(i) market liberalization and privatization of state-owned
companies; (ii) privileged access of local companies to
significant and underdeveloped local resources; (iii) strong
financial positions due to the mining boom of 2003-2008;
(iv) drive for geographic and commodity diversification, at
times with tacit support of respective home governments; and
(v) strategic expansion, usually to ensure raw material
supplies for their metallurgical operations. The role of the
emerging economy countries...
Link permanente para citações:
‣ The Post-Crisis Growth Slowdown in Emerging Economies and the Role of Structural Reforms
Fonte: World Bank Group, Washington, DC
Publicador: World Bank Group, Washington, DC
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
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#ACCESS TO CREDIT#ACCESS TO FINANCE#ACCOUNTING#ADVANCED ECONOMIES#ADVANCED ECONOMY#AFFILIATED ORGANIZATIONS#AGRICULTURE#BANK POLICY#BANKING SYSTEMS#BUSINESS CLIMATE#BUSINESS ENVIRONMENT
This paper constructs indicators of
structural bottlenecks arising from barriers to open
markets, obstacles to business operations, and constraints
to access to finance. Empirical evidence from a sample of 30
emerging economies indicates that barriers to open markets
and access to finance are significantly associated with
differences in total factor productivity growth in the
post-global financial crisis period compared with the
pre-crisis period -- with countries with fewer barriers
showing stronger recovery and resilience. Barriers to access
to finance are also associated with differences in the
performance of private investment. Reforms to improve the
policy framework in these areas, up to the level of the
best-ranking countries, could offset the recently observed
growth slowdown in emerging economies. These reforms would
revitalize potential growth and mitigate the risks from
external shocks associated with the global environment in
the transition from the global financial crisis.
Link permanente para citações:
‣ Financial Inclusion, Productivity Shocks, and Consumption Volatility in Emerging Economies
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC
Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Trabalho em Andamento
Português
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#GROWTH RATES#MONETARY POLICY#DEPOSIT#FINANCIAL SERVICES#FOREIGN CAPITAL#FOREIGN DEBT#DEPOSITS#CAPITAL ACCUMULATION#STOCK#STRUCTURAL CHANGE#DISPOSABLE INCOME
How does access to finance impact
consumption volatility? Theory and evidence from advanced
economies suggests that greater household access to finance
smooths consumption. Evidence from emerging markets, where
consumption is usually more volatile than income, indicates
that financial reform further increases the volatility of
consumption relative to output. This puzzle is addressed in
the framework of an emerging economy model in which
households face shocks to trend growth rate, and a fraction
of them are financially constrained, with no access to
financial services. Unconstrained households can respond to
shocks to trend growth by raising current consumption more
than the rise in current income. Financial reform increases
the share of such households, leading to greater relative
consumption volatility. Calibration of the model for pre-
and post-financial reform in India provides support for the
model’s key predictions.
Link permanente para citações:
‣ How to Avoid Middle-Income Traps?
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC
Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Brief
Português
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#ACCOUNTING#ADVANCED ECONOMIES#AGRICULTURE#BALANCE OF PAYMENTS#BUSINESS INNOVATIONS#BUSINESS SERVICES#CAPABILITIES#CAPITAL ACCUMULATION#CAPITAL MARKETS#CITIES#COLLATERAL
Malaysias structural transformation from
low to middle income has made it one of the most prominent
manufacturing exporters in the world. However, in the
competitive global economy, like many other middle-income
economies, it is sandwiched between low-wage economies on
one side and more innovative advanced economies on the
other. What can Malaysia do? Does Malaysia need a new growth strategy?
Link permanente para citações:
‣ How to Avoid Middle Income Traps : Evidence from Malaysia
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, D.C.
Publicador: World Bank, Washington, D.C.
Português
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Malaysia's structural transformation from low to middle income is a success story, making it one of the most prominent manufacturing exporters in the world. However, like many other middle income economies, it is squeezed by the competition from low-wage economies on the one hand, and more innovative advanced economies on the other. What can Malaysia do? Does Malaysia need a new growth strategy? This paper emphasizes the need for broad structural transformation; that is, moving to higher productivity production in both goods and services. This paper examines productivity growth for Malaysia at the sectoral level, and constructs several measures of the sophistication of goods and services trade, and puts these comparisons in a global context. The results indicate that Malaysia has further opportunities for growth in the services sector in particular. Modernizing the services sector may provide a way out of the middle income trap, and serve as a source of growth for Malaysia into the future.
Link permanente para citações:
‣ Ascent after Decline : Regrowing Global Economies after the Great Recession
Fonte: World Bank
Publicador: World Bank
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Publication; Publications & Research :: Publication
Português
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#ADVANCED COUNTRIES#ADVANCED ECONOMIES#AGGREGATE DEMAND#ARBITRAGE#ASSET PRICES#ASSETS#BALANCE SHEETS#BANK CREDIT#BANK GOVERNORS#BANKING SECTOR#BANKING SYSTEMS
This volume combines the analyses of
leading experts on the various elements affecting economic
growth and the policies required to spur that growth. Ascent
after Decline: Regrowing Global Economies after the Great
Recession identifies the main challenges to the economic
recovery, such as rising debt levels, reduced trade
prospects, and global imbalances, as well as the obstacles
to growth posed by fiscal conundrums and lagging
infrastructure. It also examines the way forward, beginning
with the role of the state and then covering labor markets,
information technology, and innovation. The common thread
throughout the book is the view that economic re-growth will
depend in large measure on smart policy choices and that the
role of government has never been more crucial than at any
time since the great depression. As members of the World
Bank community, these issues are of particular importance to
us, since without a resurrection of strong economic growth
in major economies, the likelihood of rapid economic
development in poorer developing countries is dampened. This
is troubling because we have seen progress in many parts of
the globe in the past decade...
Link permanente para citações:
‣ Capital Account Liberalization : Does Advanced Economy Experience Provide Lessons for China?
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC
Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Brief; Publications & Research
Português
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#ADVANCED COUNTRIES#ADVANCED COUNTRY#ADVANCED ECONOMIES#ADVANCED ECONOMY#BASKET COMPOSITION#BOND#BOND MARKET#BORDER CAPITAL FLOWS#CAPITAL ACCOUNT#CAPITAL ACCOUNT CONVERTIBILITY#CAPITAL ACCOUNT LIBERALIZATION
The initial post World War II pursuit of
capital account liberalization (CAL) by advanced economies
was Europe-centric, with roots in a broader political rather
than economic agenda of greater European integration. In
continental Europe, CAL was addressed mostly through the
adoption of multilateral instruments and codes. In contrast,
CAL by the United States and United Kingdom was pursued
unilaterally, motivated by their status as global reserve
currency issuers and global financial centers. China's
situation is fundamentally different. China today has no
equivalent to the European political motivation for CAL or
the domestically driven financial motivation of the United
States or the United Kingdom. And while China may have
long-term aspirations to be a global reserve currency
issuer, the extent to which it internationalizes its
currency is constrained by powerful domestic economic and
political interests that continue to benefit from an
export-led growth model underpinned by a pegged and
undervalued exchange rate...
Link permanente para citações:
‣ Toward a Switchover of Locomotives in the Global Economy
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC
Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Brief; Publications & Research
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
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#ADVANCED COUNTRIES#ADVANCED COUNTRY#ADVANCED ECONOMIES#ADVERSE IMPACT#ASSET PRICES#BALANCE SHEETS#COMMODITIES#COMMODITY#COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGIES#COMPLEMENTARY FACTORS#CONSUMER SPENDING
The recovery in advanced economies is
now exhibiting several signs of fragility and the
medium-term growth prospects for these economies also look
difficult. Could developing economies 'switch
over' to become locomotives in the global economy,
providing a countervailing force against downward trends?
The view taken here says, yes, as long as appropriate
domestic policies and reforms are pursued in developing countries.
Link permanente para citações:
‣ East Asia and Pacific Economic Update, November 2009 : Transforming the Rebound into Recovery
Fonte: World Bank
Publicador: World Bank
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Publication
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
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#ACCOUNTING#ADVANCED COUNTRIES#ADVANCED ECONOMIES#ADVERSE CONSEQUENCES#AGRICULTURE#ASSET PRICE#ASSET PRICES#BALANCE SHEETS#BANK CREDIT#BANK LENDING#BANK LOANS
A vigorous economic rebound is under way
in East Asia since the second quarter of 2009, following the
sharp impact from the financial crisis and the global
recession that began in late 2008. As much as the reduction
in exports and industrial production across the region in
the fourth quarter of 2008 and the first quarter of 2009 was
unexpectedly swift and deep, so is the strength of the
rebound, with doubts about green shoots dispelled in a
matter of months and replaced by near-consensus views of a
synchronized global rebound led by emerging East Asia. The
robust rebound is due to a combination of timely and large
fiscal and monetary stimulus in most countries in East Asia,
notably in China, and a powerful process of inventory
restocking that began after mid-2009. Globally, the advanced
economies joined the rebound trend in the third quarter of
2009, and their contributions to global industrial
production notably driven by inventory accumulation have
begun to outpace the contribution from the East Asia region.
These developments are set against a background of solid
macroeconomic fundamentals...
Link permanente para citações:
‣ The New Financial Landscape : What It Means for Emerging Market Economies
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC
Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Brief; Publications & Research
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
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#ADVANCED ECONOMIES#ASSET CLASS#ASSET PRICING#ASSETS#BAILOUTS#BALANCE SHEETS#BANK BALANCE SHEETS#BANKING SECTOR#BASIS POINTS#BOND FLOWS#CAPITAL ALLOCATION
As the year 2012 unfolds, its main
legacy will be its game changing impact on global financial
markets. Waning global growth along with central banks'
bold monetary easing policies in advanced economies (AEs) to
try to reverse it are changing market dynamics in unexpected
ways, across both AEs and emerging market economies (EMEs).
The combination of monetary stimulus, fiscal austerity and
hesitant structural economic policy reforms in AEs,
particularly in Europe, is taking the global financial
system into increasingly uncharted territory. How the
European Union will address the future of the euro zone,
including uncertainties over its banking sector, as well as
how the United States handles its Fiscal Cliff, will weigh
heavily on economic balances across all economies worldwide.
This seems to be a significant point of inflection on the
speed of the rebalancing of economic relevance of AEs in
favor of EMEs taking place over the last 12 years. Under
this scenario, the ability of EMEs to handle their own
fiscal...
Link permanente para citações:
‣ World Bank East Asia and Pacific Economic Update 2010, Volume 1 : Emerging Stronger from the Crisis
Fonte: World Bank
Publicador: World Bank
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Publication
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
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#ACCESS TO FUNDS#ADVANCED COUNTRIES#ADVANCED ECONOMIES#AGRICULTURAL OUTPUT#AGRICULTURE#ANTI-COMPETITIVE PRACTICES#ASSET PRICE#ASSET PRICES#BALANCE SHEETS#BANK LENDING#BANK OFFICES
East Asia has recovered from the
economic and financial crisis. Largely thanks to China, the
region's output, exports and employment have mostly
returned to the levels before the crisis. Leading the global
economy, real gross domestic product (GDP) growth in
developing East Asia is poised to rise to 8.7 percent in
2010 after slowing from 8.5 percent in 2008 to 7.0 percent
in 2009. This report also identifies two common regional
agenda items for the medium term. First, the process of
regional integration, driven by Association of South East
Asian Nations (ASEAN) commitments to creating a single
economic area, will need to continue. Deeper regional
economic integration is now even more important, given
prospects for slower growth in advanced economies.
Behind-the-border trade barriers must be lowered, even in
the face of incipient protectionist pressures around the
world, including in the region. Deeper integration will
encourage agglomeration economies and intra-industry trade,
support sustainable urbanization...
Link permanente para citações: