This paper studies a transmission mechanism through which pro-vulnerable income transfers may affect individual decision-making of non-beneficiaries in an extreme poverty context, leading to labor supply contraction and the so-called dependency syndrome. The argument is based on the distributional distortion this transfer may provoke to the relative quality of leisure, enjoyed by the population in an extreme poverty scenario. Assuming the existence of vulnerable individuals and different income groups based on certain physical, economic, or social characteristics, the author studies their decision processes and, in particular, their reactions to the aid program. The results of this theoretical research provide some insights on the conditions that an optimal pro-poor income transfer should present. A literature review is presented in support of the arguments made in the theoretical part.

This paper empirically investigates whether households affected by income shocks cope by reducing human capital investments. The analysis uses Crisis Response Surveys conducted in Armenia, Bulgaria, Montenegro, Romania, and Turkey during 2009 and 2010. A propensity score matching technique is adopted to compare health and education investment decisions among households that were affected by income shocks to the matched comparison group. The authors find that households affected by income shocks reduced some human capital investments. Interestingly, households in these five countries were more likely to adopt health-related coping strategies as opposed to education-related coping strategies. The results from Armenia, Bulgaria, Montenegro, and Turkey show that households affected by income shocks reduced their visits to doctors and reduced their spending on medicine and medical care significantly more than the matched comparison group. Households affected by income shocks reduced their education investments...

In contrast with a growing literature on the drivers of aggregate volatility in developing countries, its consequences in terms of individual incomes have received less attention. This paper looks at the impact of cyclical output fluctuations and extreme output events (crises) on unemployment, poverty, and inequality. The authors find robust evidence that aggregate volatility has a regressive, asymmetric, and non linear impact, as reflected in the strong influence of extreme output drops. The findings show that, in addition to the mitigating role of personal wealth, public expenditure and labor protection exert a similar benign effect. These findings are in line with the income substitutions view of social safety nets, and cast a new light on the value of social programs and labor market regulation in crisis prone developing countries.

Seasonal poverty in Bangladesh, locally known as monga, refers to seasonal deprivation of food during the pre-harvest season of Aman rice. An analysis of household income and expenditure survey data shows that average household income and consumption are much lower during monga season than in other seasons, and that seasonal income greatly influences seasonal consumption. However, lack of income and consumption smoothing is more acute in greater Rangpur, the North West region, than in other regions, causing widespread seasonal deprivation. The analysis shows that agricultural income diversification accompanied by better access to micro-credit, irrigation, education, electrification, social safety net programs, and dynamic labor markets has helped reduce seasonality in income and poverty in regions other than Rangpur in the recent past. Hence, government policies should promote income diversification through infrastructure investments and provide income transfers to the targeted poor to contain income seasonality and poverty in this impoverished part of Bangladesh.

Health and income are strongly correlated both within and across countries, yet the extent to which improvements in income have a causal effect on health status remains controversial. We investigate whether short-term fluctuations in aggregate income affect infant mortality using an unusually large data set of 1.7 million births in 59 developing countries. We show a large, negative association between per capita GDP and infant mortality. Female infant mortality is more sensitive than male infant mortality to negative economic shocks, suggesting that policies that protect the health status of female infants may be especially important during economic downturns.

Income inequality in China has risen rapidly in the past decades across regions, between rural and urban sectors, and within provinces. The dynamics of divergence across these sub-national areas have taken the form of a "race to the top" - meaning that all segments of the population, including the poor with low education in lagging inland rural areas, have experienced gains in average income. The largest gains have been registered by those with higher income and education in leading coastal urban areas. Using the China Economic, Population, Nutrition and Health Survey data of 1989 and 2004, we show that the most important factors explaining overall inequality are differential returns to schooling and sector of employment. A decomposition analysis based on household income determination shows that the increase in returns to education explains two-thirds of income changes in urban areas and one-sixth in rural areas. The widening income gaps are the consequence of higher growth in leading urban and coastal areas and that the skilled population has benefited more from the economic reforms carried out during the last 25 years. The authors argue that rising income inequality can be part of a normal process of development at a certain stage...

The diffusion of cost-effective life saving technologies has reduced infant mortality in much of the developing world. Income gains may also play a direct, protective role in ensuring child survival, although the empirical findings to date on this issue have been mixed. This paper assembles data from Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) in 59 countries to analyze the relationship between changes in per capita GDP and infant mortality. The authors show that there is a strong, negative association between changes in per capita GDP and infant mortality- in a first-differenced specification the implied elasticity of infant mortality with respect to per capita GDP is approximately -0.56. In addition to this central result, two findings are noteworthy. First, although there is some evidence of changes in the composition of women giving birth during economic upturns and downturns, the observed changes in infant mortality are not a result of mothers with protective characteristics timing fertility to correspond with the business cycle. Second...

Poverty reduction has become a fundamental objective of development, and therefore a metric for assessing the effectiveness of various interventions. Economic growth can be a powerful instrument of income poverty reduction. This creates a need for meaningful ways of assessing the poverty impact of growth. This paper follows the elasticity approach to propose a measure of pro-poorness defined as a weighted average of the deviation of a growth pattern from the benchmark case. The measure can help assess pro-poorness both in terms of aggregate poverty measures, which are members of the additively separable class, and at percentiles. It also lends itself to a decomposition procedure, whereby the overall pattern of income growth can be unbundled, and the contributions of income components to overall pro-poorness identified. An application to data for Indonesia in the 1990s reveals that the amount of poverty reduction achieved over that period remains far below what would have been achieved under distributional neutrality. This conclusion is robust to the choice of a poverty measure among members of the additively separable class, and can be tracked back to changes in expenditure components.

The paper examines the ways in which recent economic growth has been uneven in China and India and what this has meant for inequality and poverty. Drawing on analyses based on existing household survey data and aggregate data from official sources, the authors show that growth has indeed been uneven-geographically, sectorally, and at the household level-and that this has meant uneven progress against poverty, less poverty reduction than might have been achieved had growth been more balanced, and an increase in income inequality. The paper then examines why growth was uneven and why this should be of concern. The discussion is structured around the idea that there are both "good" and "bad" inequalities-drivers and dimensions of inequality and uneven growth that are good or bad in terms of what they imply for both equity and long-term growth and development. The authors argue that the development paths of both China and India have been influenced by, and have generated, both types of inequalities and that while good inequalities-most notably those that reflect the role of economic incentives-have been critical to the growth experience thus far, there is a risk that bad inequalities-those that prevent individuals from connecting to markets and limit investment and accumulation of human capital and physical capital-may undermine the sustainability of growth in the coming years. The authors argue that policies are needed that preserve the good inequalities-continued incentives for innovation and investment-but reduce the scope for bad ones...

This report uses an analytical framework that take into account the effect of natural disasters as well as country size in measuring the serious implications macroeconomic or aggregate volatility (marked period-to-period variations in measures of macroeconomic performance, such as GDP growth) has for individuals and households in Caribbean countries. The report is organized as follows: Chapter 1 reviews the recent economic and social development of the Caribbean. Chapter 2 begins by characterizing volatility of aggregate income and consumption growth and by employing regression analysis to assess the relative importance of the different factors that would be expected to determine macroeconomic volatility in the Caribbean. The chapter also examines factors that might be expected to influence the extent to which macroeconomic volatility is absorbed or amplified-that is, the extent of financial market development, the behavior of remittances, and the size and volatility of external capital flows. Chapter 3 addresses the broad question of how macroeconomic volatility in the Caribbean affects households and their income and consumption...

This paper analyzes the dynamics of poverty and income inequality during the recovery phase of the transition that characterized the Republic of Latvia in the late 1990s. Despite a continued rise in income inequality, empirical evidence suggests an improvement in living standards, owing largely to a significant surge in per capita income growth, particularly in urban areas. In a context of rising income inequality and widening urban-rural income and poverty gaps, the benefits of growth were not equally distributed, and poverty persisted in a number of regions (particularly the regions of Latgale and Vitzeme) and among some socioeconomic groups (particularly households deriving their main income from social benefits). In addition to income inequality and asset endowments, poverty appears to be highly correlated with a number of labor market-related variables, particularly unemployment, suggesting that the labor market could be an important transmission channel from growth to poverty. However, though positive...

Cross-country comparisons of social indicators controlling for income and/or social spending have been widely used to measure and explain "social efficiency" analogously to "technical efficiency" in production. The author argues that these methods are clouded in ambiguities about what exactly is being measured. Standard methods of measuring technical efficiency require assumptions that seem unlikely to hold for social indicators. In the context of a simple parametric model of life expectancy, conditions are identified under which there will be a systematic pattern of bias in estimates of efficient health spending.

Although theoretical models make distinct predictions about the relationship between financial sector development and income inequality, little empirical research has been conducted to compare their relative explanatory power. The authors examine the relation between financial intermediary development and income inequality in a panel data set of 91 countries for the period 1960-95. Their results provide evidence that inequality decreases as economies develop their financial intermediaries, consistent with the theoretical models in Galor and Zeira (1993) and Banerjee and Newman (1993). Moreover, consistent with the insight of Kuznets, the relation between the Gini coefficient and financial intermediary development appears to depend on the sectoral structure of the economy: a larger modern sector is associated with a smaller drop in the Gini coefficient for the same level of financial intermediary development. But there is no evidence of an inverted-U-shaped relation between financial sector development and income inequality...

The study analyzes Chile's strong economic growth, and well directed social programs, a combination that reduced the poverty rate in half, during a period of just eleven years. The previously noted trends in falling poverty, in terms of incidence, depth, and severity, continued into 1998, and the analysis shows there was unambiguously less poverty between 1994, and 1998, observed at all levels of income. Clearly, income poverty is related to, and impacted by a number of important factors, such as level of education, larger families, or families headed by women, and employment opportunities. Evidence shows Chile achieved considerable improvements in key social indicators, i.e., infant mortality, life expectancy, and educational coverage, for the combination of the three social sector deficit measures of poverty - education, health, and housing - with the income poverty measure, reveals that fifty one percent of all households have neither social sector, nor income deficits. Nonetheless, income inequality remained high by international standards...

After Mexico's financial crisis in 1994, the distribution of income, and labor earnings improved. Did inequality increase during the recession, as one would expect, since the rich have more ways to protect their assets than the poor do? After all, labor is poor people's only asset (the labor-hoarding hypothesis). In principle, one could argue that the richest deciles experienced severe capital losses, because of the crisis in 1994-96, and were hurt proportionately more than the poor were. But the facts don't support this hypothesis. As a share of total income, both monetary income (other than wages, and salaries) and financial income, increased during that period, especially in urban areas. Financial income is a growing source of inequality in Mexico. Mexico's economy had a strong performance in 1997. The aggregate growth rate was about 7 percent, real investment grew 24 percent, and exports 17 percent, industrial production increased 9.7 percent, and growth in civil construction (which makes intensive use of less skilled labor) was close to 11 percent. Given those figures, it is not surprising that the distribution of income, and labor earnings improved, but the magnitude, and quickness of the recovery prompted a close inspection of the mechanisms responsible for it. The authors analyze the decline in income inequality after the crisis...

This paper evaluates the degree of consumption insurance enjoyed by Latin American and Caribbean countries, with respect to various reference areas, by estimating a parameter expressing the sensitivity of a country's consumption growth to a measure of idiosyncratic shocks to income. The paper surveys common econometric implementations of "consumption insurance tests." The author proposes some econometric procedures in order to detect the actual presence of international risk sharing, as well as to assess the relative impact of idiosyncratic versus aggregate shocks. The evidence suggests that Latin American and Caribbean economies have been hit by non-diversifiable income shocks, that idiosyncratic risk is relatively more important than aggregate risk, and that some countries in the region appear to enjoy a certain amount of international risk diversification. The paper also identifies some macroeconomic factors that may be responsible for a higher or lower degree of risk pooling (such as international openness...

The paper contains a framework for linking social protection with growth and productivity, an updated review of the literature, new original work filling in gaps in the available evidence, and a discussion of operational implications. The paper demonstrates that there was a shift in the economists' view on social protection, and now they are seen as a force that can make a positive contribution towards economic growth and reduce poverty. The paper looks at pathways in which social protection programs (social insurance and social assistance programs, as well as labor programs) can support better growth outcomes: (i) individual level (building and protecting human capital, and other productive assets, empowering poor individuals to invest or to adopt higher return strategies), (ii) local economy effects (enhancing community assets and infrastructure, positive spillovers from beneficiaries to non-beneficiaries), (iii) overall economy level (acting as stabilizers of aggregate demand, improving social cohesion and making growth?enhancing reforms more politically feasible). Most social protection programs affect growth through all of these pathways. But the evidence is very uneven; and there are knowledge gaps. The paper discusses operational implications for the design and implementation of Social Protection (SP) programs and proposes a work program for addressing knowledge gaps.

Aggregated Social Accounting Matrices (SAMs) will be constructed for the Portuguese economy from 1995 to 2000, based on the country's national accounts statistics. The economic flows associated with households, enterprises, government and other institutions will be analysed, as well as their evolution, whilst accounting multipliers will be calculated to facilitate the study of the effects resulting from changes in household income. Therefore, SAMs are modelled and structural path analysis will be used for the decomposition of the calculated multipliers. At the end, the general guidelines will be established for following the study of income distribution and poverty in Portugal.

Based on the principle that the study of a sector should be carried out under a general equilibrium approach, and moving beyond the context of partial equilibrium, the Social Accounting Matrix, usually referred to as SAM, is one possibility for meeting such needs, in that it provides a complete account of the circular flows in the economy. The economic flows associated with households, enterprises, government and other institutions from 1995 to 2000 will be analysed from aggregated SAMs, based on the country's national accounts statistics. Accounting multipliers will be calculated to facilitate the study of the effects resulting from changes in household income. Therefore, SAMs are modelled, and structural path analysis will be used for the decomposition of the calculated multipliers. At the end, general guidelines will be established for studying income distribution and poverty in Portugal.

30 pages, 1 figure, 5 boxes--; Empirical studies assume that the macro Mincer return on schooling is con- stant across countries. Using a large sample of countries this paper shows that countries with a better quality of education have on average relatively higher macro Mincer coeficients. As rich countries have on average better educational quality, differences in human capital between countries are larger than has been typically assumed in the development accounting literature. Consequently, factor accumulation explains a considerably larger share of income differences across countries than what is usually found.; The support from the Spanish Ministry of Education and Science under project SEJ2005-06357 is gratefully acknowledged. The author acknowledges the support of the Barcelona GSE Research Network and of the Government of Catalonia.; Peer reviewed