Cette thèse s’articule autour de trois chapitres indépendants qui s’inscrivent dans les champs de la macroéconomie, de l’économie monétaire et de la finance internationale. Dans le premier chapitre, je construis un modèle néo-keynesien d’équilibre général sous incertitude pour examiner les implications de la production domestique des ménages pour la politique monétaire. Le modèle proposé permet de reconcilier deux faits empiriques majeurs: la forte sensibilité du produit intérieur brut aux chocs monétaires (obtenue à partir des modèles VAR), et le faible degré de rigidité nominale observé dans les micro-données. Le deuxième chapitre étudie le role de la transformation structurelle (réallocation de la main d’oeuvre entre secteurs) sur la volatilité de la production aggregée dans un panel de pays. Le troisième chapitre quant à lui met en exergue l’importance de la cartographie des échanges commerciaux pour le choix entre un régime de change fixe et l’arrimage à un panier de devises. "Household Production, Services and Monetary Policy" (Chapitre 1) part de l’observation selon laquelle les ménages peuvent produire à domicile des substituts aux services marchands...

Economists have long sought to predict how macroeconomic shocks will affect individual welfare. Macroeconomic data and forecasts are easily available when crises strike. But policy action requires not only understanding the magnitude of a macro shock, but also identifying which households or individuals are being hurt by (or benefit from) the crisis. Moreover, in many cases, impacts on the ground might be already occurring as macro developments become known, while micro level evidence is still unavailable because of paucity of data. Because of these reasons, a comprehensive real-time understanding of how the aggregate changes will translate to impacts at the micro level remains elusive. This problem is particularly acute when dealing with developing countries where household data is sporadic or out of date. This volume outlines a more comprehensive approach to the problem, showcasing a micro simulation model, developed in response to demand from World Bank staff working in countries and country governments in the wake of the global financial crisis of 2008-09. During the growing catastrophe in a few industrialized countries...

In light of the proliferation of exceptionally large fiscal stimuli to ward off the recession triggered by the 2008 global economic and financial crisis in most advanced economies, this paper revisits the fiscal adjustment and growth nexus in Sub-Saharan Africa. Using transfer functions, it quantifies expected losses in terms of aggregate output largely attributed to a systematic implementation of pro-cyclical expenditure switching and reducing policies to achieve low deficit targets throughout the decades of adjustments. The results consistently highlight a much higher predicted aggregate output under the hypothesized counter-cyclical fiscal expansion option. This consistent outcome suggests that the output gap would have been significantly smaller in the region if countries had drawn on stop-and-go policies of fiscal expansion to sustainably raise the stock of capital investments.

This paper explores how developmental and regulatory impediments to resource reallocation limit the ability of developing countries to adopt new technologies. An efficient economy innovates quickly; but when the economy is unable to redeploy resources away from inefficient uses, technological adoption becomes sluggish and growth is reduced. The authors build a model of heterogeneous firms and idiosyncratic shocks, where aggregate long-run growth occurs through the adoption of new technologies, which in turn requires firm destruction and rebirth. After calibrating the model to leading and developing economies, the authors analyze its dynamics in order to clarify the mechanism based on firm renewal. The analysis uses the steady-state characteristics of the model to provide an explanation for long-run output gaps between the United States and a large sample of developing countries. For the median less-developed country in the sample, the model accounts for more than 50 percent of the income gap with respect to the United States...

In contrast with a growing literature on the drivers of aggregate volatility in developing countries, its consequences in terms of individual incomes have received less attention. This paper looks at the impact of cyclical output fluctuations and extreme output events (crises) on unemployment, poverty, and inequality. The authors find robust evidence that aggregate volatility has a regressive, asymmetric, and non linear impact, as reflected in the strong influence of extreme output drops. The findings show that, in addition to the mitigating role of personal wealth, public expenditure and labor protection exert a similar benign effect. These findings are in line with the income substitutions view of social safety nets, and cast a new light on the value of social programs and labor market regulation in crisis prone developing countries.

China has seen a huge reduction in the incidence of extreme poverty since the economic reforms that started in the late 1970s. Yet, the growth process has been highly uneven across sectors and regions. The paper tests whether the pattern of China´s growth mattered to poverty reduction using a new provincial panel data set constructed for this purpose. The econometric tests support the view that the primary sector (mainly agriculture) has been the main driving force in poverty reduction over the period since 1980. It was the sectoral unevenness in the growth process, rather than its geographic unevenness, that handicapped poverty reduction. Yes, China has had great success in reducing poverty through economic growth, but this happened despite the unevenness in its sectoral pattern of growth. The idea of a trade-off between these sectors in terms of overall progress against poverty in China turns out to be a moot point, given how little evidence there is of any poverty impact of non-primary sector growth, controlling for primary-sector growth. While the non-primary sectors were key drivers of aggregate growth...

With the global financial crisis hitting many countries, policymakers around the world have been weighing different countercyclical policies to support aggregate demand and restore growth. The analysis in this paper estimates a Structural Vector Error Correction model for Tunisia in order to identify the impact of fiscal policy shocks on real output. The authors find that public investment has a small impact on output in the short run but is an important medium-term growth-enhancing countercyclical instrument that has a robust impact on growth. Raising public investment by 1 dinar yields 0.12 dinar the first year, 0.30 dinar the second year, half a dinar the third year, and 1.08 dinars the sixth year. An increase in recurrent expenditure has a smaller but positive and persistent impact on real output. For Tunisia to obtain a larger short-term impact of public spending on output, procurement processes should be made faster and simpler. Finally, the analysis finds a countercyclical pattern of real public investment vis-à-vis real output and a relative rigidity/inelasticity of recurrent expenditures to output fluctuations.

The authors examine empirically how domestic structural characteristics related to openness and product- and factor-market flexibility influence the impact that terms-of-trade shocks can have on aggregate output. For this purpose, they apply an econometric methodology based on semi-structural vector auto-regressions to a panel of 90 countries with annual observations for the period 1974-2000. Using this methodology, the authors isolate and standardize the shocks, estimate their impact on GDP, and examine how this impact depends on the domestic conditions outlined above. They find that larger trade openness magnifies the output impact of external shocks, particularly the negative ones, while improvements in labor market flexibility and financial openness reduce their impact. Domestic financial depth has a more nuanced role in stabilizing the economy. It helps reduce the impact of external shocks particularly in environments of high exposure-that is, when trade and financial openness are high, firm entry is unrestricted, and labor markets are rigid.

The Poverty Analysis Macroeconomic Simulator (PAMS) is a model that links standard household surveys with macro frameworks. It allows users to assess the effect of macroeconomic policies-in particular, those associated with Poverty Reduction Strategies papers-on sectoral employment and income, the incidence of poverty, and income distribution. PAMS (in Excel) has three interconnected components: (1) A standard aggregate macro-framework that can be taken from any macro-consistency model (for example, RMSM-X, 123) to project GDP, national accounts, the national budget, the BoP, price levels, and so on, in aggregate consistent accounts. (2) A labor market model breaking down labor categories by skill level and economic sectors whose production total is consistent with that of the macro framework. Individuals from the household surveys are grouped in representative groups of households defined by the labor category of the head of the household. For each labor category, labor demand depends on sectoral output and real wages. Wage income levels by economic sector and labor category can thus be determined. In addition...

In a data set for developing, and transition economies, the author finds that private consumption per capita, based on national accounts, deviates on average from mean household income, or expenditure based on national sample surveys. Growth rates also differ systematically, so that the ratio of the survey mean to the national accounts mean, tends to fall over time. But there are revealing exceptions to these general findings. The aggregate difference in the levels is due more to income surveys, than to expenditure surveys. And there are strong regional effects; for example, the severe data problems in the transition economies of Eastern Europe, and Central Asia, means that there is negligible correlation in that region, between growth rates from national accounts, and those from household surveys.

Countries with more developed financial sectors, experience fewer fluctuations in real per capita output, consumption, and investment growth. But the manner in which the financial sector develops matters. The relative importance of banks in the financial system is important in explaining consumption, and investment volatility. The proportion of credit provided to the private sector, best explains volatility of consumption, and output. The authors generate their main results using fixed-effects estimates with panel data from seventy countries for the years 1956-98. Their general findings suggest that the risk management, and information processing provided by banks, maybe especially important in reducing consumption, and investment volatility. The simple availability of credit to the private sector, probably helps smooth consumption, and GDP.

The authors estimate social rates of return to electricity-generating capacity and paved roads, relative to the return on general capital, by examining the effect on aggregate output and comparing that effect with the costs of construction. They find that both types of infrastructure capital are highly complementary with other physical capital and human capital, but have rapidly diminishing returns if increased in isolation. The complementarities on the one hand, and diminishing returns on the other, point to the existence of an optimal mix of capital inputs, making it very easy for a country to have too much - or too little - infrastructure. For policy purposes, the authors compare the rate of return for investing in infrastructure with the estimated rate of return to capital. The strong complementarity between physical and human capital, and the lower prices of investment goods in industrial economies, means that the rate of return to capital as a whole is just as high in rich countries as in the poorest countries but is highest in the middle-income (per capita) countries. In most countries the rates of return to both electricity-generating capacity and paved roads are on a par with...

The research and development (R&D) sector is considered one of the main driving forces of sustainable growth in the long run. The sector, however, also shows excessive volatility which raises interesting questions regarding the sources of this volatility as well as the nature of the relation between the sector and aggregate fluctuations. Using data from the United States Bureau of Economic Analysis and National Science Foundation, we show that technology innovations are the main source of fluctuations in R&D investment while R&D technology shocks are important in driving aggregate output fluctuations. After taking nominal innovations into consideration, such as shocks in monetary policy and inflation, capital investment-specific shocks explain 70 percent of fluctuations of R&D investment, while R&D technology shocks explain 30 percent of the variation in the output of the non-R&D sector. Technology innovations jointly explain most of the variation of output in the R&D sector and 78 percent of the variation of output in the rest of the economy.

Empirical observations raise interesting questions regarding the sources of the excessive volatility in the R&D sector as well as the nature of the relation between the sector and aggregate fluctuations. Using US data for the period 1959–2007, we identify sectoral technology and capital investment-specific shocks by employing a Vector Autoregression. The identifying assumptions are motivated by a two-sector dynamic general equilibrium model. Controlling for real and nominal factors, we find that capital investment-specific shocks explain 70 percent of fluctuations of R&D investment, while R&D technology shocks explain 30 percent of the variation of aggregate output, net of R&D investment. Technology shocks jointly explain almost all the variation of output in the R&D sector and 78 percent of the variation of output in the rest of the economy. They also constitute the main factor of the procyclicality of R&D investment.

This paper estimates the effect of income inequality on real gross domestic product per capita using a panel of 104 countries during the period 1970–2010. The empirical analysis addresses endogeneity issues by using instrumental variables estimation and controlling for country and time fixed effects. The analysis finds that, on average, income inequality has a significant negative effect on transitional gross domestic product per capita growth and the long-run level of gross domestic product per capita. However, the impact varies by the level of economic development, so much so that in poor countries income inequality has a significant positive effect on gross domestic product per capita.

The correlation of Australian output with that of the OECD, and the United States in particular, has been well documented. This paper explores foreign linkages by looking at the production side of the national accounts for Australia and the United States, which is often characterised as the country at the technological frontier. Industrial structures in the two countries are broadly similar, and about two-thirds of Australian output is found to be linked to that of the United States. The US links in the agricultural and mining sectors seem to be related to aggregate demand in the United States, in both the short and long run. But in manufacturing – and notably in goods for which production is technology intensive and changing over time – there are persistent, long-run links with the corresponding sector in the United States. Combined with other evidence, the conjecture is that the US links in manufacturing are driven by the supply-side: technological change, innovation and new products are transmitted from the United States and elsewhere to Australia, mostly within two to three years. Domestic demand seems to dominate service sectors, although US aggregate demand can be relevant, as, for example, in the finance and property sector. While links with the United States are pervasive...

Cross-national data show no association between increases in human capital attributable to the rising educational attainment of the labor force and the rate of growth of output per worker. This implies that the association of educational capital growth with conventional measures of total factor production is large, strongly statistically significant, and negative. These are 'on average' results, derived from imposing a constant coefficient. However, the development impact of education varied widely across countries and has fallen short of expectations for three possible reasons. First, the institutional/governance environment could have been sufficiently perverse that the accumulation of educational capital lowered economic growth. Second, marginal returns to education could have fallen rapidly as the supply of educated labor expanded while demand remained stagnant. Third, educational quality could have been so low that years of schooling created no human capital. The extent and mix of these three phenomena vary from country to country in explaining the actual economic impact of education...

Sub-Saharan Africa's dismal development outcomes -- growth collapse and declining real income -- are often used to highlight its sharp development contrast with other regions of the developing world. Drawing on a large cross-section analysis, this paper shows that Africa's underlying dismal records can also be largely accounted for by the skewed distribution of growth in the post-independence era. In particular, structurally low investment rates in a context of high political risk and uncertainty undermined growth prospects in the region. However, counterfactual simulations based on a variation of neoclassical growth models and under the hypothetical equalization of political risk profile alternative result in large economic returns, reflected in the significantly higher level of aggregate output and income in the subset of conflict-affected countries. Income gets even higher when the hypothetical reduction of political risks alternative is accompanied by sustained increases in capital accumulation.

The author provides sectoral evidence that sheds new light on the current debate regarding the sources of growth of the East Asian miracle. The author tests both the productivity-driven and endowment-driven hypotheses using Hong Kong's sectoral data. The results show that most of the growth in the services sector is driven by the rapidly accumulating capital endowments, and not by productivity growth. In addition, productivity growth in the manufacturing sector is also unimpressive. The manufacturing sector is more labor intensive and its growth is hindered by the reallocation of resources into the services sector as a result of the growth of capital endowments and imports. Overall, sectoral evidence supports the endowment-driven hypothesis for Hong Kong's aggregate growth.

This paper investigates the leading sources of inflationary pressure and output variations in the Mexican economy. To this end, we make use of a multivariate error-correction model, which is consistent with a small open economy with a floating exchange rate system. As our object is to let the data expose the key determinants of prices and output, we resort to a broad aggregate demand-aggregate supply model consisting of three markets: goods, money, and labor. Taken as a whole, the empirical evidence suggests that monetary expansions are basically accommodated through a higher price level, rather than a higher economic activity. In the short run, real exchange rate depreciations produce a moderate effect on inflation and an insignificant effect on output. In the long run, however, an undervalued currency results in production losses. In addition, we find that i) both inertial inflation and inflationary expectations are among the driving forces of price instability, and ii) shocks to nominal wages are recessionary at impact and this negative effect is persistent over time. Lastly, nominal wages are a positive function of capacity utilization and the expected rate of inflation, thereby suggesting a forward-looking wage adjustment process. As we shall see...