Climate change is believed to represent a serious challenge to poverty reduction efforts around the globe. This paper conducts an up-to-date review of three main strands of the literature analyzing the poverty impacts of climate change : (i) economy-wide growth models incorporating climate change impacts to work out consistent scenarios for how climate change might affect the path of poverty over the next decades; (ii) studies focusing on the poverty impacts of climate change in the agricultural sector; and (iii) studies exploring how past climate variability impacts poverty. The analysis finds that the majority of the estimates of the poverty impacts tend to ignore the effect of aggregate economic growth on poverty and household welfare. The empirical evidence available to date suggests that climate change will slow the pace of global poverty reduction, but the expected poverty impact will be relatively modest and far from reversing the major decline in poverty that is expected to occur over the next 40 years as a result of continued economic growth. The studies focusing on the sector-specific channels of impacts of climate change suggest that the estimated impacts of climate change on agricultural yields are generally a poor predictor of the poverty impacts of climate change at the national level due to heterogeneity in the ability of households to adapt. It also appears that the impacts of climate change are generally regressive...

Using cross-country and panel regressions, the authors show that financial sector development significantly reduces undernourishment (hunger), largely through gaining farmers and others access to productivity-enhancing equipment, translating into beneficial income and general effects. They show specifically that a deeper financial sector leads to higher agricultural productivity, including higher cereal yields, through increased fertilizer and tractor use. Higher productivity in turn leads to lower undernourishment. The results are robust to various specifications and econometric tests and imply that a 1 percentage point increase in private credit to GDP reduces undernourishment by 0.22-2.45 percentage points, or about one-quarter the impact of GDP per capita.

Tajikistan is highly vulnerable to the adverse impacts of global climate change, as it already suffers from low agricultural productivity, water stress, and high losses from disasters. Public awareness of the multiple consequences of climate change is high, with possible impacts on health, natural disasters, and agriculture of greatest public concern. Climate change can potentially deepen poverty by lowering agricultural yields, raising food prices, and increasing the spread of water-borne diseases as well as the frequency and severity of disasters. Regions with greater dependence on agriculture and lower socioeconomic indicators, particularly the east mountain area of the Region of Republican Subordination (RRS), the Southern Sughd hills, and Khatlon hills and lowlands, are most vulnerable to climate change, with rural areas more at risk than urban locations. Faster socioeconomic development is the best tool for adaptation, since greater income diversification, improved health and education, and better access to services and infrastructure enhance the capacity of households...

One area of weakness in current agricultural policy work in Vietnam is the lack of a clear understanding of both the private profitability of farmers for different crop activities and the social profitability of such activities. Agricultural performance is thus gauged in physical terms (i.e. yields and the volume of aggregate output) rather than in financial or economic terms. This has hampered efforts to compare and contrast the impacts and effectiveness of alternative policy and program measures. Comparative metrics for different crops and farm management systems have been lacking. The main objectives of this paper are: (i) to describe the Policy Analysis Matrix (PAM) methodology and how to interpret key financial and economic indicators; (ii) to document the underlying assumptions used for the analysis; and (iii) to provide a summary and brief interpretation of the main quantitative results and outcome of selected sensitivity tests. As a step towards improved sector planning, this paper utilizes the PAM to analyze various farm management systems for rice...

Many transition and developing economies have reduced direct public involvement in the production and trade of seed and other agricultural inputs. This trend creates opportunities for farmers to realize improved access to inputs, including technology from international private research. Unfortunately, input regulations often derail these opportunities by blocking private entry and the introduction of private technology. This study looks at the experience in Bangladesh, India, Turkey, and Zimbabwe to see whether regulations make a difference in agriculture and input industries in developing economies. In all countries, companies and farmers responded to regulatory reforms by introducing and adopting more new technology and by expanding the production, trade, and use of inputs. The increased use of private technology has brought higher yields and incomes, allowing farmers and consumers to reach higher levels of welfare. These results challenge governments to open their regulatory systems to allow market entry and the introduction of private technology through seeds and other inputs.

The need for countries in Sub-Saharan Africa to build more productive, modern, and market-oriented farming sectors is one of our most pressing development challenges. In coming years, African agriculture will have to increase food production and expand and intensify value chains in order to meet changing demand on the part of a rapidly expanding and urbanizing consumer base. The process of doing this will enable African countries to begin pushing back against their currently growing reliance on food imports. An essential precondition for bringing this transformation to pass is to increase and improve the information on which farmers and agribusinesses base their production and investment decisions, and on which public sector institutions base their policies. The purpose of the Agribusiness Indicators (ABIs) Project is to provide this kind of empirical information in the form of a series of metrics and indicators that can be used to measure change over time and to make direct comparisons between countries, especially policy makers. These indicators will be used to inform policy dialogue...

Agricultural risk management is a central issue that Mozambique faces in development, and multiple stakeholders have analyzed this challenge, sometimes with different terminology and focusing on varying aspects. The government of Mozambique has adopted the strategic plan for agricultural development (PEDSA 2010-19) that focuses on: (i) increasing the availability of food in order to reduce hunger through growth in small producer productivity and emergency response capacity; (ii) enlarging the land area under sustainable management and the number of reliable water management systems; (iii) increasing access to the market through improved infrastructures and interventions in marketing; and (iv) improving research and extension for increased adoption of appropriate technologies by producers and agro-processors. The World Bank’s agriculture sector risk assessment takes a holistic approach and relies on long time-series historical data to arrive at an empirical and objective assessment of agricultural risks and their impacts on Mozambique. This assessment will form the basis of the second step...

The performance of Senegal’s agricultural performance exemplifies the impact of unmanaged risk on productivity among vulnerable smallholder crop producers and pastoralists. The government of Senegal has historically responded to drought and other shocks with direct financial support to farmers as well as general assistance to the rural population. The World Bank, with support from the group of eight (G-8) and the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) and in collaboration with the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Equipment (MARE), commissioned the present study. The objective of this assessment was to assist the government of Senegal to: (1) identify, analyze, quantify, and prioritize principal risks facing the agricultural sector; (2) analyze the impact of these risks; and (3) identify and prioritize appropriate risk management interventions that may contribute to improved stability, reduced vulnerability, and increased resilience of agricultural supply chains in Senegal. This report presents a summary of the assessment’s key findings. Chapter one gives introduction. Chapter two provides an overview of the agricultural sector in Senegal and a discussion of key growth constraints. An assessment of the main agricultural risks is presented in chapter three. Chapter four analyzes the frequency and severity of highlighted risks and assesses their impact. Chapter five presents some stakeholder perceptions of risks and evaluates levels of vulnerability among various livelihood groups. The study concludes in chapter six with an assessment of priorities for risk management and a broad discussion of possible risk management measures that can help to strengthen the resiliency of agricultural supply chains and the livelihoods they support.

Agriculture is the dominant sector of the economy, contributing a third of the country’s gross domestic product (GDP) and about half of Rwanda’s export earnings. The government of Rwanda has therefore made agricultural development a priority and allocated significant resources to improving productivity, expanding the livestock sector, promoting sustainable land management, and developing supply chains and value-added activities. At the same time, Rwanda’s agriculture sector faces a series of challenges. Agriculture is dominated by small-scale, subsistence farming under traditional agricultural practices and rain-fed agriculture. As a result, average crop yields are low compared with potential yields, and exposed to risks such as weather related shocks and pest and disease outbreaks. The purpose of this report is to assess existing risks to the agriculture sector, prioritize them according to their frequency and impacts on the sector, and identify areas of risk management solutions that need deeper specialized attention. Three levels of risks are assessed: production risks...

In the past 50 years, Indian agriculture has undergone a major transformation, from dependence on food aid to becoming a consistent net food exporter. The gradual reforms in the agricultural sector (following the broader macro-reforms of the early 1990s) spurred some unprecedented innovations and changes in the food sector driven by private investment. These impressive achievements must now be viewed in light of the policy and investment imperatives that lie ahead. Agricultural growth has improved in recent years (averaging about 3.5 percent since 2004-05), but at a long-term trend rate of growth of 3 percent, agriculture has underperformed relative to its potential. The pockets of post-reform dynamism that have emerged evidently have not reached a sufficiently large scale to influence the sector's performance. For the vast population that still derives a living directly or indirectly from agriculture, achieving "faster, more inclusive, and sustainable growth', the objectives at the heart of the Twelfth five year plan...

This review's objectives were to examine the structure and performance of the agricultural research and extension systems (public and private) at the central and provincial levels, identify successes as well as constraints to improving the system s effectiveness for fostering innovation, and propose options for further policy and institutional development, drawing on lessons from international experience. The review focused principally on nonplantation crops, although its main recommendations apply across the agricultural sector. This synthesis report summarizes the main findings of the review and builds upon them by adding some new elements. The conflict in Sri Lanka is explicitly recognized. Additionally, the implications of changes in the wider agricultural context for agricultural research and extension are explored, and have led to the adoption of an innovation systems perspective to organize the major findings

The increasing resilience to climate change in the agricultural sector report presents local-level priorities, informed by stakeholder input, to build agricultural resilience in both countries. The objectives of this study were threefold: (1) to improve the understanding of climate change projections and impacts on rural communities and livelihoods in selected regions of Jordan and Lebanon, specifically the Jordan River Valley and Lebanon's Bekaa Valley; (2) to engage local communities, farmers, local experts, and local and national government representatives in a participatory fashion in helping craft agricultural adaptation options to climate change; and (3) to develop local and regional climate change action plans that formulate recommendations for investment strategies and strategic interventions in local agricultural systems. The climate challenges confronting development in the Middle East are particularly stark. This region, and in particular its rural people, face what might be called a "triple threat" from climate change. First...

The agricultural season in Bosnia and Herzegovina (BH) begins earlier than in most European countries, shipping costs are relatively low, and land and labor prices are more favorable than in other southern European countries. As a result, the country's agriculture sector should be well positioned to compete on the export markets. With 20.6 percent of all employed in BH, agriculture remains an important sector for employment, despite a decline in the working-age population in rural areas. Additionally, it will be important for BH to develop well-functioning land institutions, so that the land market can operate more efficiently and thus enable business development. Finally, BH should integrate climate change adaptation and environmental sustainability into agricultural policies, programs, and investments. To succeed in agriculture, producers and governments will have to adapt, and the way to start is to focus on reducing agriculture's vulnerability to current climate variability.

Conventional wisdom holds that Sub-Saharan African farmers use few modern inputs despite the fact that most growth-inducing and poverty-reducing agricultural growth in the region is expected to come largely from expanded use of inputs that embody improved technologies, particularly improved seed, fertilizers and other agro-chemicals, machinery, and irrigation. Yet following several years of high food prices, concerted policy efforts to intensify fertilizer and hybrid seed use, and increased public and private investment in agriculture, how low is modern input use in Africa really? This paper revisits Africa's agricultural input landscape, exploiting the unique, recently collected, nationally representative, agriculturally intensive, and cross-country comparable Living Standard Measurement Study-Integrated Surveys on Agriculture covering six countries in the region (Ethiopia, Malawi, Niger, Nigeria, Tanzania, and Uganda). The study uses data from more than 22,000 households and 62,000 plots to investigate a range of commonly held conceptions about modern input use in Africa...

In the past 50 years, Indian agriculture has undergone a major transformation, from dependence on food aid to becoming a consistent net food exporter. The gradual reforms in the agricultural sector (following the broader macro-reforms of the early 1990s) spurred some unprecedented innovations and changes in the food sector driven by private investment. These impressive achievements must now be viewed in light of the policy and investment imperatives that lie ahead. Agricultural growth has improved in recent years (averaging about 3.5 percent since 2004-05), but at a long-term trend rate of growth of 3 percent, agriculture has underperformed relative to its potential. The pockets of post-reform dynamism that have emerged evidently have not reached a sufficiently large scale to influence the sector's performance. For the vast population that still derives a living directly or indirectly from agriculture, achieving "faster, more inclusive, and sustainable growth', the objectives at the heart of the Twelfth five year plan...

This paper provides evidence on the effects of agricultural productivity on wage rates, labor supply to market oriented activities, and labor allocation between own farming and wage labor in agriculture. To guide the empirical work, this paper develops a general equilibrium model that underscores the role of reallocation of family labor engaged in the production of non-marketed services at home (`home production'). The model predicts positive effects of a favorable agricultural productivity shock on wages and income, but the effect on hired labor is ambiguous; it depends on the strength of reallocation of labor from home to market production by labor surplus and deficit households. Taking rainfall variations as a measure of shock to agricultural productivity, and using subdistrict level panel data from Bangladesh, this paper finds significant positive effects of a favorable rainfall shock on agricultural wages, labor supply to market work, and per capita household expenditure. The share of hired labor in contrast declines substantially in response to a favorable productivity shock...

Agricultural production is inextricably tied to climate, making agriculture one of the most climate-sensitive of all economic sectors. In countries such as the Former Yugoslav Republic (FYR) of Macedonia, the risks of climate change for the agricultural sector are a particularly immediate and important problem because the majority of the rural population depends either directly or indirectly on agriculture for their livelihoods. Climate impacts can therefore undermine progress that has been made in poverty reduction and adversely impact food security and economic growth in vulnerable rural areas. In order to be effective, a plan for adapting the sector to climate change must strengthen both human capital and physical capital in their capacity. The need to adapt to climate change in all sectors is now on the agenda of national governments and development partners. As a result, development partners will continue to have an important role in enhancing the adaptive capacity of the Macedonian agricultural sector. Another key factor for FYR Macedonia's development of an adaptation plan for agriculture is furthering FYR Macedonia's work toward European Union (EU) accession, for which FYR Macedonia has been a candidate since 2005. The Macedonian government has already begun to focus on required EU reforms...

Abstract Adequate estimates of yields under comparable amounts of infiltrated water of different irrigation systems are essential for evaluation and adoption of irrigation decisions. A simulation model, crop evapotranspiration and Young's criteria for subjective probability estimates from objective data were used to simulate water management regimes for pressurized and surface-irrigation systems. Historical climatic data, representative soil series and irrigation technologies for CentralArizona were considered in the simulations. Comparable spatial and average yields for drip, graded furrow, level furrow and level basin systems with similar distribution uniformity of applied water were predicted when each irrigation system infiltrates to the same depth in the low-quarter section of the irrigated field as the average of that quarter, to meet seasonal crop evapotranspiration. This implies that a similar fraction of the field (87·5%) is adequately irrigated in each case. Irrigation reuse systems are advisable to achieve comparable, and high, water application efficiencies with furrow systems. Applied water and simulated yields were influenced by the uniformity distribution of the irrigation technologies showing that the model can be used to explore theimplications of design and management decisions. The applied water and simulated yields can be used as inputs in economic models to aid selection of farm irrigation systems.

This report is comprised of two volumes: (i) volume one: risk assessment; and (ii) volume two: risk management strategy. Volume one continues with chapter one, which characterizes the recent performance of the agriculture sector, including agro-climatic and market conditions. It also identifies the productive systems used for this analysis. Chapter two describes the main risks in the agricultural sector, capturing market, production, and enabling environment risks along the value chains involved in the selected productive system typologies. Chapter three presents the estimations of the aggregate impacts of unmanaged agricultural risk on agricultural losses and production volatility. Chapter four identifies risk profiles for different stakeholders, underlying the different types of risk impacts, and then highlights a vulnerability framework. Finally, chapter five presents a prioritization of risks and proposes a preliminary set of priority risk management measures. A short list of potential solution actions is offered as the starting point for a more in-depth solution analysis to be undertaken during the second phase of the risk assessment. Volume two is composed of four chapters. Chapter one provides a brief discussion on the agricultural risk profile and risk management options (solutions) in Paraiba and an inventory of current programs...

Achieving food security is a challenge for the developed and developing world. These challenges are greater for developing nations such as in Africa because of the severity of the problems. An important aspect of this is poor agricultural productivity. Worldwide, technology is being developed to increase agricultural production. One aspect of this is the development of predictive computer models that enable farmers to optimise crops using management decision based on simulation scenarios. Most African farmers do not have the computer resources or expertise to implement these types of technology. Even extension offices in Africa, who provide much needed advice, can be under resourced in this way. We suggest here that simpler computer models that are cheaper and easier to use need to be developed. As a first step in this process we investigate here which factors are most cost effectively managed using computer simulations in semi-arid conditions pertinent to much of sub-Saharan Africa. Factors known to be important in crop farming are planting date, sowing density, variety, weeding, soils and fertiliser. We use qualitative arguments with simulations and conclude that interactions between rainfall, soil condition and fertiliser can benefitfrom simulations and thus should help in their management.