The National Research Council recommended both a risk- and performance-based multipollutant approach to air quality management. Specifically, management decisions should be based on minimizing the exposure to, and risk of adverse effects from, multiple sources of air pollution and that the success of these decisions should be measured by how well they achieved this objective. We briefly describe risk analysis and its application within the current approach to air quality management. Recommendations are made as to how current practice could evolve to support a fully risk- and performance-based multipollutant air quality management system. The ability to implement a risk assessment framework in a credible and policy-relevant manner depends on the availability of component models and data which are scientifically sound and developed with an understanding of their application in integrated assessments. The same can be said about accountability assessments used to evaluate the outcomes of decisions made using such frameworks. The existing risk analysis framework, although typically applied to individual pollutants, is conceptually well suited for analyzing multipollutant management actions. Many elements of this framework, such as emissions and air quality modeling...

We examine the effects of total suspended particulates (TSPs) air pollution on infant health using the air quality improvements induced by the 1970 Clean Air Act Amendments (CAAA). This legislation imposed strict regulations on industrial polluters in "nonattainment" counties with TSPs concentrations exceeding the federal ceiling. We use nonattainment status as an instrumental variable for TSPs changes to estimate their impact on infant mortality changes in the first year that the 1970 CAAA was in force. TSPs nonattainment status is associated with sharp reductions in both TSPs pollution and infant mortality from 1971 to 1972. The greater reductions in nonattainment counties near the federal ceiling relative to the ₃attainment₄ counties narrowly below the ceiling suggest that the regulations are the cause. We estimate that a one percent decline in TSPs results in a 0.5 percent decline in the infant mortality rate. Most of these effects are driven by a reduction in deaths occurring within one month of birth, suggesting that fetal exposure is a potential biological pathway. The results imply that roughly 1,300 fewer infants died in 1972 than would have in the absence of the Clean Air Act.

The main objective of the Country Environmental Analysis (CEA) in Nepal is to identify opportunities for enhancing the overall performance of select environmental management systems through improvements in the effectiveness of institutions, policies, and processes. CEA has been built upon the following three primary study components: (a) an examination of the environmental issues associated with infrastructure development, focusing on the Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) process in priority growth sectors; (b) an analysis of environmental issues linked to rapid urbanization, focusing on the growing problems of solid waste, poor air quality, and industrial pollution, and the resulting impacts on environmental health; and (c) an analysis of the policy and institutional underpinnings related to key environmental management systems at the national and local levels. This report provides the basis for a discussion of the challenges and options facing Nepal in regard to improving the performance of key environmental management systems and institutions to support its growth and poverty alleviation agenda.

The main objective of the Country Environmental Analysis (CEA) in Nepal is to identify opportunities for enhancing the overall performance of select environmental management systems through improvements in the effectiveness of institutions, policies, and processes. CEA has been built upon the following three primary study components: (a) an examination of the environmental issues associated with infrastructure development, focusing on the Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) process in priority growth sectors; (b) an analysis of environmental issues linked to rapid urbanization, focusing on the growing problems of solid waste, poor air quality, and industrial pollution, and the resulting impacts on environmental health; and (c) an analysis of the policy and institutional underpinnings related to key environmental management systems at the national and local levels. This report provides the basis for a discussion of the challenges and options facing Nepal in regard to improving the performance of key environmental management systems and institutions to support its growth and poverty alleviation agenda.

The Sub-Saharan Africa Refinery Study evaluates the effects of improved fuel specifications on refiningoperations and air quality in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). The improved fuel specifications would reduce the levels of certain pollutants in fuels, in turn reducing human exposure to these pollutants in ambient air. The health study estimates the health impacts and associated monetary benefits associated with the proposed improvements in fuel quality. The estimated monetary benefits will be compared to the costs to the refining industry associated with a change in fuel specifications, by region, as presented in Volume II,the Refinery Study

The Latin America and Caribbean (LAC) region has a unique mix of qualities and challenges when it comes to the environment. It is exceptionally endowed with natural assets, with globally significant biodiversity and valuable crops, and also harbors the world s greatest carbon sink in the Amazon. The purpose of the series is to contribute to the global knowledge exchange on innovation in environmental and water resources management and the pursuit of greener and more inclusive growth. The series addresses issues relevant to the region s environmental sustainability agenda from water resources management to environmental health, natural resource management, biodiversity conservation, environmental policy, pollution management, environmental institutions and governance, ecosystem services, environmental financing, irrigation and climate change and their linkages to development and growth. The author presents three successful case studies. The first case study describes how Colombia designed and implemented an air quality management program based on public awareness...

Through a survey the authors study willingness to pay for improvements in air quality in Sofia, Bulgaria. Using a stochastic payment car approach - asking respondents the likelihood that they would agree to pay a series of prices - they estimate the distribution of willingness to pay various prices. They find that people in Sofia are willing to pay up to about 4.2 percent of their income for a program to improve air quality. The income elasticity of willingness to pay for air quality improvements is about 27 percent. For comparison, they also used the referendum contingent valuation approach. Results from that approach yielded a higher estimate of willingness to pay.

Reducing emissions from heating and cooking are part of the Mongolian Government and Ulaanbaatar Municipality’s multi-year, multi-sector strategy to improve air quality in Ulaanbaatar. The achievements and investments are at risk for a number of factors discussed in this report. The risks are sufficiently serious that they could even reverse hard-won air quality improvements.

Air quality, especially in urban areas, deteriorated with the industrial revolution and the following centuries. It is only during the last 60 years, following e.g. the infamous London smog (1952), that the health impacts of air pollution have been recognised and acted upon. In the developed world, abatement strategies and closure of major industries have led to significant air quality improvements (Harrison, 2004; Lamarque et al., 2010; Monks et al., 2009; Smith et al., 2011). Even so, the evaluation of current research within the Clean Air for Europe (CAFE) process has clearly shown that, even today, investments in further air quality improvements will have a beneficial return financially, in terms of population health, environmental improvements and in quality of life (EEA, 2007; Stern, 2006). The measurement of air quality changed dramatically during the last century reflecting the concurrent knowledge about the adverse effects of air pollution, as well as the technological developments. The earliest measurement methods were often labour intensive, needed long analysis times and had a low time resolution. Routine measurements of air quality can be traced back to the Montsouris Manuscript Click here to download Manuscript: AMT_AtmosEnv_NewDirection_19_09_2013.docx Click here to view linked References 2 Observatory in Paris...

States rely upon photochemical models to predict the impacts of air quality attainment strategies, but the performance of those predictions is rarely evaluated retrospectively. State implementation plans (SIPs) developed to attain the 1997 U.S. standard for fine particulate matter (PM2.5; denoting particles smaller than 2.5 microns in diameter) by 2009 provide the first opportunity to assess modeled predictions of PM2.5 reductions at the state level. The SIPs were the first to rely upon a speciated modeled attainment test methodology recommended by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency to predict PM2.5 concentrations and attainment status. Of the 23 eastern U.S. regions considered here, all but one achieved the 15 μg/m3 standard by 2009, and the other achieved it the following year, with downward trends sustained in subsequent years. The attainment tests predicted 2009 PM2.5 design values at individual monitors with a mean bias of 0.38 μg/m3 and mean error of 0.68 μg/m3, and were 95% accurate in predicting whether a monitor would achieve the standard. All of the errors were false alarms, in which the monitor observed attainment after a modeled prediction of an exceedance; in these cases, the states used weight-of-evidence determinations to argue that attainment was likely. Overall...

This thesis focuses on evaluating atmospheric chemistry and transport models’ capability in simulating the chemistry and dynamics of power plant plumes, evaluating their strengths and weaknesses in predicting air quality trends at regional scales, and exploring air quality trends in an urban area. First, the Community Mutlti-scale Air Quality (CMAQ) model is applied to simulate the physical and chemical evolution of power plant plumes (PPPs) during the second Texas Air Quality Study (TexAQS) in 2006. SO2 and NOy were observed to be rapidly removed from PPPs on cloudy days but not on cloud-free days, indicating efficient aqueous processing of these compounds in clouds, while the model fails to capture the rapid loss of SO2 and NOy in some plumes on the cloudy day. Adjustments to cloud liquid water content (QC) and the default metal concentrations in the cloud module could explain some of the SO2 loss while NOy in the model was insensitive to QC. Second, CMAQ is applied to simulate the ozone (O3) change after the NOx SIP Call and mobile emission controls in the eastern U.S. from 2002 to 2006. Observed downward changes in 8-hour O3 concentrations in the NOx SIP Call region were under-predicted by 26%–66%. The under-prediction in O3 improvements could be alleviated by 5%–31% by constraining NOx emissions in each year based on observed NOx concentrations while temperature biases or uncertainties in chemical reactions had minor impact on simulated O3 trends. Third...

The ambient permit system proposed in the literature for cost-effective pollution reduction is difficult to implement and may result in lower net benefits than using another instrument. The article develops a model for comparing the environmental net benefits of three policy instruments for Santiago, Chile, when the policy problem is to meet a given ambient quality standard. Two market-based instruments—the ambient permit system and a simpler emission permit system—are examined along with an emission standard, a command and control instrument usually favored by regulators. Both emission permit system and emission standard are costlier than the ambient permit system, sometimes in large part because they improve ambient emission concentrations beyond the required target in much of the city, but the ambient permit system requires a lower degree of control to comply with the standard. The somewhat costlier emission permit system and emission standard provide much higher net benefits than the ambient permit system when the health benefits of their "excessive" air quality improvements are taken into account. These benefits are different from the fact that an ambient permit system is administratively costlier to implement.

This sector note presents the results of the World Bank-led study on the development of a strategy of the government of the Arab Republic of Egypt to respond to air quality problems in Greater Cairo. The Greater Cairo Metropolitan Area (GCMA) is the largest urban and industrial center in Egypt, which, in 2009, was ranked eighth among the world's top urban agglomerations. Twenty million people live and work in Greater Cairo, which is surrounded by major heavy industries to the north and the south, including large, as well as small and medium enterprises. As in many megacities in the world, air pollution has been a chronic problem in Greater Cairo. The persistent air quality problem represents a serious hurdle to the competitiveness that is a key to the socioeconomic development of Greater Cairo and therefore the nation. An action plan has prepared for the implementation of the main sectorial policies. This action plan will have to be developed and changed where required because it can only be implemented within a coherent framework of environmental...

Combating pollution needs to be based on standards supported by enforced regulatory, and physical infrastructure, not always in place in countries in transition from central planning to a market economy. Policymakers in the Central Asia and the Caucus region, however, are recognizing the need for such steps against pollution, demonstrated by their commitment to phase out lead from gasoline. To support these efforts, the Bank undertook a regional study on cleaner transport fuels for urban quality improvement in the region, recognizing that fuel quality improvements should be linked to broader air quality management, to ensure cost-effectiveness, and in addressing these issues, it is therefore possible to build on economies of scale, avoid duplications, allow the transfer of experience, and facilitate intra-regional trade in petroleum products. This lead to this study's observations, and recommendations. The establishment of continuous monitoring of the "classical" pollutants, should permit comparison with international standards...

A 2013 scientific assessment of black carbon emissions and impacts found that black carbon is second to carbon dioxide in terms of its climate forcing. High concentrations of black carbon in the atmosphere can change precipitation patterns and reduce the amount of radiation that reaches the Earth's surface, which affects local agriculture. Acute and chronic exposures to particulate matter are associated with a range of diseases, including chronic bronchitis and asthma, as well as premature deaths from cardiopulmonary disease, lung cancer, and acute lower respiratory infections. The transportation sector accounted for approximately 19 percent of global black carbon emissions in the year 2000. This report aims to inform efforts to control black carbon emissions from diesel-based transportation in developing countries. It presents a summary of emissions control approaches from developed countries, while recognizing that developing countries face a number of on-the-ground implementation challenges. This study applies a new cost-benefit analysis methodology to four simulated diesel black carbon emissions control projects - diesel retrofit in Istanbul...

This document was devloped as it initiated a pilot project - dubbed Guangzhou Green Trucks Pilot Project in support of Guangzhou's efforts to improve air quality in preparation for the 2010 Asian Games. The goal of this project was to develop a proof of concept for a truck program in Guangdong Province, and possibly China, that aims to: Enhance the fuel economy of the truck fleet, Reduce black carbon and other air pollutants from trucks and consequently obtain GHG emission savings.The project was implemented by the Clean Air Initiative for Asian Cities Center (CAI-Asia Center), in cooperation with Cascade Sierra Solutions, US EPA and World Bank, and with support from Guangzhou Environmental Protection Bureau (GEPB), Guangzhou Transport Committee (GTC), and Guangzhou Project Management Office (PMO) for the World Bank.The pilot project aims to contribute to addressing three problems related to trucks in Guangzhou and the wider Guangdong province simultaneously: (a) fuel costs and security; (b) air pollution and associated health impacts...

The World Bank (WB) initiated a pilot project - dubbed "Guangzhou Green Trucks Pilot Project" in support of Guangzhou's efforts to improve air quality in preparation for the 2010 Asian Games. The goal of this project was to develop a proof of concept for a truck program in Guangdong Province and China that aims to: Enhance the fuel economy of the truck fleet, reduce black carbon and other air pollutants from trucks and consequently obtain GHG emission savings. The following strategies were applied during the technology pilot on HDTs: Cab roof fairing, which is an integrated air deflector mounted on the top of the cab and reduces the gap between the tractor and the trailer. Fairings of the brand DongGuan CAIJI were used in the pilot. Nose cone, which is installed on the front of the trailer and reduces air turbulence. Nose cones were purchased from a Guangdong-based supplier, DongGuan CAIJI. Skirts, which are panels that hang down from the bottom of a trailer to enclose the open space between the rear wheels o the tractor and the rear wheels of the trailer. Skirts reduce the amount of wind underneath the trailer and...

Executive Summary Abstract: A study of methods for sulfate air quality control strategy design has been conducted. Analytical tools developed were tested within a case study of the nature and causes of the high sulfate concentrations observed in the Los Angeles area. A principal objective was to investigate the least costly means for sulfate air quality improvement in that locale. A long-run average emissions to air quality model was derived which computes pollutant concentrations from Lagrangian marked particle statistics based on the time sequence of measured wind speed, wind direction, and inversion base motion. Physical assumptions drawn from analysis of existing air quality and meteorological data were used to adapt this model to a specific application -- sulfate air quality prediction in Los Angeles. An energy and sulfur balance on the fate of energy resources containing sulfur was developed to test the consistency of a sulfur oxides emissions inventory for that air basin. Then material balance arguments were used to trace sulfur flows within that regional energy economy through the air quality model which also conserves sulfur mass. Sulfate air quality model predictions were compared to historical observations over the years 1972 through 1974. 'The sulfate air quality impact of individual emission source classes was estimated at a large number of air monitoring sites. A hybrid theoretical-empirical model was constructed which explains the relationship between sulfate air quality and prevailing visibility at Los Angeles. An estimate was made of the visibility improvement which would have accured if Los Angeles sulfate concentrations were reduced by 50 percent on each past day of record. Then two emissions control strategy example calculations were performed to illustrate the means by which the air quality model results could be used to evaluate the cost of attaining such an air quality improvement. Volume 2 Abstract: Particulate sulfate air pollutants contribute to visibility deterioration and are of current public health concern. This study develops the technical understanding needed for sulfate air quality control strategy design. Methods which link sulfate air quality and air quality impacts on visibility to the cost of controlling sulfur oxides air pollutant emissions are presented. These techniques are tested by application to the Los Angeles Basin over the years 1972 through 1974. An air quality simulation model is developed which directly calculates long-term average sulfate concentrations under unsteady meteorological conditions. Pollutant concentrations are estimated from Lagrangian marked-particle statistics based on the time sequence of historical measured wind speed...

The Clean Air Act requires the use of complex photochemical models to predict future ozone concentrations and the impact of current and future regulations. In many instances uncertainty in the data input parameters used to operate these models results in uncertainty in the prediction of future air quality. The degree of this uncertainty is often greater than the degreee of air quality improvements proposed by regulations. This study evaluates the sensitivity of a photochemical model to predict future ozone air quality with respect to the uncertainty of several critical input parameters. These parameters are: Transported ozone (ozone aloft) Biogenic emissions (naturally occurring in nature) and anthropogenic (man-made) emissions of oxides of nitrogen (NOx), volatile organic compounds (VOCs) and carbon monoxide (CO). Global sensitivity analyses were done using the United States Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) Empirical Kinetic Modeling Approach (EKMA) photochemical model to assess the sensitivity in predictions of past (1990), present (1999), and future year (2010) air quality downwind of New York City. Our results show that for present and future years, the uncertainty in the model's prediction of future air quality, (a consequence of the uncertainty in biogenic emissions and ozone aloft) is significantly greater than the difference in emissions as a result of different control strategies proposed by industry and the regulatory agencies for mobile source emissions. The model therefore is not accurate enough to be used to predict changes in air quality that are driven by the proposed more stringent regulations.

In recent years there has been considerable advancement in our scientific understanding of the linkages and interactions between climate change and air quality. A warmer, evolving climate is likely to have severe consequences for air quality due to impacts on pollution sources and meteorology. Climate-induced changes to sources of tropospheric ozone precursor gases and to atmospheric circulation are likely to lead to changes in both the concentration and dispersion of near-surface ozone that could act to offset improvements in air quality. The control of air pollutants through air quality management is also likely to impact on climate change, with reductions in ozone, particulate matter and sulphur dioxide being of particular interest. The improved understanding of the relationship between air quality and climate change provides a scientific basis for policy interventions. After a review of the scientific linkages, the potential to include climate change considerations in air quality management planning processes in South Africa was examined.