Originally presented as the Richard T. Ely Lecture at the Annual Meetings of the American Economic Association, Chicago, IL, January 3, 1998. Also published as: American Economic Review v88, n2 (May 1998): 1-14.; I will sketch the history of the so-called turnpike theorems and describe some interesting recent developments regarding them. I will also discuss the attempt to apply the ideas of turnpike theorems in the literature of optimal capital accumulation to the theory of competitive equilibrium over time. Finally I will make some remarks on the relations of this literature to some recent developments in the theory of economic growth which are often referred to comprehensively as the New Growth Theory. Of course the New Growth Theory like the Old Growth Theory is not concerned directly with optimal capital accumulation, but with the actual course of events in markets, which indeed need not be perfectly competitive.

This paper examines the growth patterns of emerging Europe and the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) countries prior to the global financial crisis. The aim is to draw lessons on what policies can best position these countries going forward to enjoy growth without a buildup in macro and financial vulnerability. Cluster analysis is used to classify these countries across the growth and vulnerability dimensions; namely, a classification into low or high growth outcomes, each of which may occur with low or high vulnerability features. The vulnerability indicators used are multifaceted, covering both the domestic and the external dimensions that have been identified in previous studies as being good indicators of likelihood of crisis -- itself understood as multidimensional. Based on multinomial logit regressions, the initial conditions and the economic policies that might affect the probabilities of being in each of the four possible cluster combinations are examined. Many (if not most) of the countries in the sample experienced very large capital inflows relative to their gross domestic product prior to the crisis...

The returns to schooling or the skill premium is a key parameter in various literatures, including globalization and inequality and international migration. This paper explores the skill premium and its link to exports in Latin America, thus linking the skill premium to the emerging literature on the structure of trade and development. Using data on employment and wages for over five million workers in sixteen Latin American economies, the authors estimate national and industry-specific skill premiums and study some of their determinants. The evidence suggests that both country and industry characteristics are important in explaining skill premiums. The analysis also suggests that the incidence of exports within industries, the average income per capita within countries, and the relative abundance of skilled workers are related to the underlying industry and country characteristics that explain skill premiums. In particular, higher sectoral exports are positively linked with the skill premium at the industry level...

Latin America is together with Sub-Saharan Africa the most unequal region of the world. This paper documents recent inequality trends in the Latin American region, going beyond traditional measures of income inequality. The paper also reviews some of the explanations that have been put forward to understand the current situation, and discusses why reducing income inequality should be an important policy priority. In particular, the authors discuss channels through which inequality can affect growth and output volatility. On the whole, the analysis suggests a two-pronged approach to reduce inequality in the region that combines policies aimed at improving the distribution of assets (especially education) with elements aimed at improving the capacity of the state to redistribute income through taxes and transfers.

Latin American countries are generally characterized as displaying high income and earnings inequality overall along with high inequality by gender, race, and ethnicity. However, the latter phenomenon is not a major contributor to the former phenomenon. Using household survey data from four Latin American countries (Bolivia, Brazil, Guatemala, and Guyana) for which stratification by race or ethnicity is possible, this paper demonstrates (using Theil index decompositions as well as Gini indices, and 90/10 and 50/10 percentile comparisons) that within-group earnings inequality rather than between-group earnings inequality is the main contributor to overall earnings inequality. Simulations in which the relatively disadvantaged gender and/or racial/ethnic group is treated as if it were the relatively advantaged group tend to reduce overall earnings inequality measures only slightly and in some cases have the effect of increasing earnings inequality measures.

The social discount rate measures the rate at which a society would be willing to trade present for future consumption. As such it is one of the most critical inputs needed for cost-benefit analysis. This paper presents estimates of the social discount rates for nine Latin American countries. It is argued that if the recent track record in terms of growth in the region is indicative of future performance, estimates of the social discount rate would be in the 3-4 percent range. However, to the extent that the region improves on its past performance, the social discount rate to be used in the evaluation of projects would increase to the 5-7 percent range. The paper also argues that if the social planner gives a similar chance to the low and high growth scenario, the discount rate should be dependent on the horizon of the project, declining from 4.4 percent for a 25-year horizon to less than 4 percent for a 100-year horizon.

This paper complements the cross-country approach by examining the correlates of growth acceleration in per capita gross domestic product around "significant" public expenditure episodes by reorganizing the data around turning points, or events. The authors define a growth event as an increase in average per capita growth of at least 2 percentage points sustained for 5 years. A fiscal event is an increase in the annual growth rate of primary fiscal expenditure of approximately 1 percentage point sustained for 5 years and not accompanied by an aggravation of the fiscal deficit beyond 2 percent of gross domestic product. These definitions of events are applied to a database of 140 countries (118 developing countries) for 1972-2005. After controlling for the growth-inducing effects of positive terms-of-trade shocks and of trade liberalization reform, probit estimates indicate that a growth event is more likely to occur in a developing country when surrounded by a fiscal event. Moreover, the probability of occurrence of a growth event in the years following a fiscal event is greater the lower is the associated fiscal deficit...

Capital in the Twenty-First Century by Thomas Piketty provides a unified theory of the functioning of the capitalist economy by linking theories of economic growth and functional and personal income distributions. It argues, based on the long-run historical data series, that the forces of economic divergence (including rising income inequality) tend to dominate in capitalism. It regards the twentieth century as an exception to this rule and proposes policies that would make capitalism sustainable in the twenty-first century.

High-quality institutions -- reflected in such factors as rule of law, bureaucratic quality, freedom from government expropriation, and freedom from government repudiation of contracts -- mitigate the adverse economic effects of ethnic fractionalization identified by Easterly and Levine (1997) and others. Ethnic diversity has a more adverse effect on economic policy and growth when a government's institutions are poor. But poor institutions have an even more adverse effect on growth and policy when ethnic diversity is high. In countries where the institutions are good enough, however, ethnic diversity does not lessen growth or worsen economic policies. Good institutions also reduce the risk of wars and genocides that might otherwise result from ethnic fractionalization. However, these forms of violence are not the channel through which ethnic fragmentation and its interaction with institutions affect economic growth. Ethnically diverse nations that want to endure in peace and prosperity must build good institutions.

East Asia has experienced a dramatic decrease in output growth volatility over the past 20 years. This is good news, as output growth volatility affects poor households because of coping strategies that have long-term, harmful consequences, and the overall economy through its negative impact on economic growth. This paper investigates the factors behind this long decline in volatility, and derives lessons about ways to mitigate renewed upward pressure in face of the financial crisis. The authors show that if, on the one hand, high trade openness has sustained economic growth in the past several decades, on the other hand, it has made countries more vulnerable to external fluctuations. Although less frequent terms of trade shocks and more stable growth rates of trading partners have helped to reduce volatility in the past, the same external factors are now putting renewed pressure on volatility. The way forward seems therefore to be to counterbalance the external upward pressure on volatility by improving domestic factors. Elements under domestic control that can help countries deal with high volatility include more accountable institutions...

In an earlier paper, the authors presented a mathematical exposition of a theory that demonstrated that mass privatization without institutions to limit asset-stripping may not lead to a demand for the rule of law ["After the Big Bang? Obstacles to the Emergence of the Rule of Law in Post-Communist Societies," American Economic Review 94(3), June 2004, pages 753-63]. This report makes the same argument in terms of simple diagrams. The central idea is that economic actions (to build value or strip assets) and political positions of individuals are interdependent. "Big bang" privatization may give individuals an interest in taking what they can quickly, rather than waiting for the establishment of property rights protection that would permit them to build more valuable assets. Asset stripping gives some of these individuals an interest in prolonging the absence of the rule of law so that they can enjoy the fruits of stripping without the constraint of government enforcement of property rights. Each individual...

An abundance of natural resources is intuitively expected to be a blessing. Nonetheless, it has been argued for some decades that large endowments of natural resources oil, gas, and minerals in particular may actually become more of a curse, often leading to slow economic growth and redistributive struggles (including armed conflict). Over the years, vast empirical literature has addressed this "paradox." The literature has had to rely on proxies for natural resource abundance because of the lack of appropriate data, generating doubt on whether results would be similar if direct measures of natural wealth were available. This gap is now starting to be filled with the data series released by the World Bank (1997, 2006, 2011) on natural capital and other forms of countries' wealth. This note presents an analysis of these data to revisit some of the conclusions reached in the literature on the relationship between natural resource abundance and economic growth. The findings are in alignment with the view that there is no clear deterministic evidence of natural resource abundance as a curse or a blessing; therefore...

This paper examines how different establishments performed during the recent global financial crisis, focusing on the role of foreign ownership. The paper investigates how foreign ownership affected establishments' responses to negative economic shocks, using a cross-country panel dataset with detailed information on operation, location and industry for more than 12 million establishments from 2005-2008. The evidence shows that multinational subsidiaries on average fared better than local counterfactuals with similar economic characteristics. Among multinational subsidiaries, establishments with stronger production and financial linkages with parent companies showed greater resilience. Finally, in contrast to the crisis period, the impact of foreign ownership and linkages on an establishment's performance was insignificant in non-crisis years.

Low and highly volatile growth define Africa's growth experience. But there is no evidence that growth volatility is associated to long term economic performance. This result may be misleading if it suggests that volatility is not important for economic and social progress. In this paper we use a variant of the method developed by Hausmann, Pritchett, and Rodrik (2005) to identify both growth acceleration and deceleration episodes in Africa between 1975 and 2005. The authors find that Africa has had numerous growth acceleration episodes in the last 30 years, but also nearly a comparable number of growth collapses, offsetting most of the benefits of growth. Had Africa avoided its growth collapses, it would have grown 1.7 percent a year instead of 0.7 percent, and its GDP per capita would have been more than 30 percent higher in 2005. The authors also find that growth accelerations and decelerations have an asymmetric impact on human development outcomes. Finally, our results suggest that it is easier to identify the likely institutional and policy origins of growth decelerations than of growth accelerations.

This paper evaluates the degree of consumption insurance enjoyed by Latin American and Caribbean countries, with respect to various reference areas, by estimating a parameter expressing the sensitivity of a country's consumption growth to a measure of idiosyncratic shocks to income. The paper surveys common econometric implementations of "consumption insurance tests." The author proposes some econometric procedures in order to detect the actual presence of international risk sharing, as well as to assess the relative impact of idiosyncratic versus aggregate shocks. The evidence suggests that Latin American and Caribbean economies have been hit by non-diversifiable income shocks, that idiosyncratic risk is relatively more important than aggregate risk, and that some countries in the region appear to enjoy a certain amount of international risk diversification. The paper also identifies some macroeconomic factors that may be responsible for a higher or lower degree of risk pooling (such as international openness...

In a recent issue of "The American Economic Review (1983), William Frazer and Lawrence Boland present Milton Friedman's methodology as instrumentalism. The purpose of article is not to question Frazer and Boland's interpretation of Friedman; rather it is to question their accompanying assertion that instrumentalism is a sound methodology for short-run, practical policy purposes. According to Frazer and Boland, Friedman's essay calls "attention to the great relevance of positive economics for normative economics. The question was which policy should be selected. The promise of instrumentalism to Frazer and Boland is that it provides an effective method for answering this question. It does so by dissolving or ignoring the problem of induction and is as a method free from logical errors. Boland uses conventionalist criteria (for Friedman simplicity and fruitfulness) to select a theory to use for a particular occasion. This theory is free from logical error. It is alogical; the first two steps ensure that logic is barely relevant to it.

The dynamics of a linear (or linearized) dynamic stochastic economic model can be expressed in terms of matrices (A,B,C,D) that define a state space system. An associated state space system (A,K,C,Sigma) determines a vector autoregression for observables available to an econometrician. We review circumstances under which the impulse response of the VAR resembles the impulse response associated with the economic model. We give four examples that illustrate a simple condition for checking whether the mapping from VAR shocks to economic shocks is invertible. The condition applies when there are equal numbers of VAR and economic shocks.

Contracting for research is often infeasible because research inputs are unobservable and research outcomes cannot be verified by a court. Sponsoring a research tournament can resolve these problems. A model is presented in which contestants compete to find the innovation of highest value to the tournament sponsor. The winner receives a prespecified prize. The tournament game has a unique subgame-perfect equilibrium. Free entry is not optimal because equilibrium effort by each researcher decreases in the number of contestants. An optimally designed research tournament balances the probability of overshooting the first-best quality level against the probability of falling short. Copyright 1995 by American Economic Association.

This paper presents estimates of the effects that terms of trade volatility has on growth of real gross domestic product per capita. Based on five-year non-overlapping panel data comprising 175 countries during 1980–2010, the paper finds that: (i) in model specifications that do not include country fixed effects, terms of trade volatility has a significant negative average effect on economic growth; (ii) once country fixed effects are included in the model, the average effect of terms of trade volatility on economic growth is not significantly different from zero; (iii) robust to the inclusion of country fixed effects, terms of trade volatility has significantly adverse effects on economic growth in countries with pro-cyclical fiscal policy; and (iv) in model specifications that do not include country fixed effects, financial development is a significant mediating factor with regard to the effect that terms of trade volatility has on economic growth, however, the significance of this effect vanishes once country fixed effects are included in the model. The paper also explores these relationships for the Organization of Eastern Caribbean States region. A key conclusion from the research is that countercyclical fiscal policy and deeper financial markets will have particularly high payoffs in reducing the adverse growth effects of terms of trade volatility in the Organization of Eastern Caribbean States region.

"The Economic War Against Cuba." Salim Lamrani. Monthly Review Press. April 2013. --- Salim Lamrani aims to explains some of the essential background to the U.S. economic sanctions against Cuba: their origins, their provisions, how they contravene international law, and how they affect the lives of Cubans. Although not detailed enough for an academic audience, this book does offer a short chronicle and discussion of some of the key events and consequences of more than fifty years of American economic sanctions against Cuba, writes Paul Wingrove.