Integration of energy crops into agricultural landscapes could promote sustainability if they are placed in ways that foster multiple ecosystem services and mitigate ecosystem disservices from existing crops. We conducted a modeling study to investigate how replacing annual energy crops with perennial energy crops along Wisconsin waterways could affect a variety of provisioning and regulating ecosystem services. We found that a switch from continuous corn production to perennial-grass production decreased annual income provisioning by 75%, although it increased annual energy provisioning by 33%, decreased annual phosphorous loading to surface water by 29%, increased below-ground carbon sequestration by 30%, decreased annual nitrous oxide emissions by 84%, increased an index of pollinator abundance by an average of 11%, and increased an index of biocontrol potential by an average of 6%. We expressed the tradeoffs between income provisioning and other ecosystem services as benefit-cost ratios. Benefit-cost ratios averaged 12.06 GJ of additional net energy, 0.84 kg of avoided phosphorus pollution, 18.97 Mg of sequestered carbon, and 1.99 kg of avoided nitrous oxide emissions for every $1,000 reduction in income. These ratios varied spatially...

In contrast with a growing literature on the drivers of aggregate volatility in developing countries, its consequences in terms of individual incomes have received less attention. This paper looks at the impact of cyclical output fluctuations and extreme output events (crises) on unemployment, poverty, and inequality. The authors find robust evidence that aggregate volatility has a regressive, asymmetric, and non linear impact, as reflected in the strong influence of extreme output drops. The findings show that, in addition to the mitigating role of personal wealth, public expenditure and labor protection exert a similar benign effect. These findings are in line with the income substitutions view of social safety nets, and cast a new light on the value of social programs and labor market regulation in crisis prone developing countries.

This paper evaluates the impact of the Thailand Village and Urban Revolving Fund on household expenditure, income, and assets. The revolving fund was launched in 2001 when the Government of Thailand promised to provide a million baht (about $22,500) to every village and urban community in Thailand as working capital for locally-run rotating credit associations. The money about $2 billion in total was quickly disbursed to locally-run committees in almost all of Thailand s 74,000 villages and more than 4,500 urban (including military) communities. By May 2005, the committees had lent a total of about $8 billion, with an average loan of $466. Using data from the Thailand Socioeconomic Surveys of 2002 and 2004, each of which surveys almost 35,000 households, the authors find that the borrowers were disproportionately poor and agricultural. A propensity score matching model finds that Fund borrowing in 2004 was associated with, on average, 1.9 percent more income, 3.3 percent more expenditure, and about 5 percent more ownership of durable goods. These results are broadly consistent with the results from instrumental variables models (where the identifying instrument was the inverse of village size)...

Income inequality in China has risen rapidly in the past decades across regions, between rural and urban sectors, and within provinces. The dynamics of divergence across these sub-national areas have taken the form of a "race to the top" - meaning that all segments of the population, including the poor with low education in lagging inland rural areas, have experienced gains in average income. The largest gains have been registered by those with higher income and education in leading coastal urban areas. Using the China Economic, Population, Nutrition and Health Survey data of 1989 and 2004, we show that the most important factors explaining overall inequality are differential returns to schooling and sector of employment. A decomposition analysis based on household income determination shows that the increase in returns to education explains two-thirds of income changes in urban areas and one-sixth in rural areas. The widening income gaps are the consequence of higher growth in leading urban and coastal areas and that the skilled population has benefited more from the economic reforms carried out during the last 25 years. The authors argue that rising income inequality can be part of a normal process of development at a certain stage...

This paper summarizes the policy lessons from applications of the Maquette for MDG Simulations (MAMS) model to two low income countries: Ghana and Honduras. Results show that costs of MDGs achievement could reach 10-13 percent of GDP by 2015, although, given the observed low productivity in the provision of social services, significant savings may be realized by improving efficiency. Sources of financing also matter: foreign aid inflows can reduce international competitiveness through real exchange appreciation, while domestic financing can crowd out the private sector and slow poverty reduction. Spending a large share of a fixed budget on growth-enhancing infrastructure may mean sacrificing some human development, even if higher growth is usually associated with lower costs of social services. The pursuit of MDGs increases demand for skills: while this encourages higher educational attainments, in the short term this could lead to increased income inequality and a lower poverty elasticity of growth.

After decades of persistent disparities, inequality in Brazil has fallen steadily over the last fifteen years. This robust rate of decline has surpassed the pace of the Latin American region as a whole, and is taking place as inequality rises in several rapid-growth emerging economies in other regions. This document examines the recent trend in income inequality in Brazil, its key policy drivers and some of the challenges ahead. It aims at capturing some of the lessons behind Brazil?s experience to share with other economies in the region and beyond.

This paper assembles data at the all-India level and for the village of Palanpur, Uttar Pradesh, to document the growing importance, and influence, of the non-farm sector in the rural economy between the early 1980s and late 2000s. The suggestion from the combined National Sample Survey and Palanpur data is of a slow process of non-farm diversification, whose distributional incidence, on the margin, is increasingly pro-poor. The village-level analysis documents that the non-farm sector is not only increasing incomes and reducing poverty, but appears as well to be breaking down long-standing barriers to mobility among the poorest segments of rural society. Efforts by the government of India to accelerate the process of diversification could thus yield significant returns in terms of declining poverty and increased income mobility. The evidence from Palanpur also shows, however, that at the village-level a significant increase in income inequality has accompanied diversification away from the farm. A growing literature argues that such a rise in inequality could affect the fabric of village society...

Is there a "middle income trap"? Theory suggests that the determinants of growth at low and high income levels may be different. If countries struggle to transition from growth strategies that are effective at low income levels to growth strategies that are effective at high income levels, they may stagnate at some middle income level; this phenomenon can be thought of as a "middle income trap." This paper does not find evidence for (unusual) stagnation at any particular middle income level. However, it does find evidence that the determinants of growth at low and high income levels differ. These findings suggest a mixed conclusion: middle-income countries may need to change growth strategies to transition smoothly to high-income growth strategies, but this can be done smoothly and does not imply the existence of a middle income trap.

Income variability explains a significant fraction of the increase in annual income inequality. Chapter 1 considers the impact of variability on tax unit inequality. Using income tax return panel data, I estimate that between a tenth and a quarter of the increase in top one percent income shares between the early 1980s and 2000s was caused by variability. Increased income variability over this period resulted from mean-reverting fluctuations in the bottom quintile and top one percent. Variability in the top of the distribution seems partly driven by permanent income shifting in response to the Tax Reform Act of 1986. Chapter 2 examines the individual earnings distribution. Using Social Security Administration earnings panel data, I estimate that variability explains half of the increase in annual inequality in the bottom half of the distribution between 1973 and 1985. When workers with years of zero earnings are included, increasing earnings variability explains almost all of this group's increase in inequality. The increase in earnings variability appears to be explained by an increased fraction of working age men with years of zero earnings. Annual individual earnings inequality in the bottom half of the distribution not only increased with variability in the 1970s and 1980s...

This annual report covers the period from July 1, 2001, to June 30, 2002, and is prepared by the Executive Directors of both the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development (IBRD) and the International Development Association (IDA). The first of two volumes discusses the World Bank's goals and strategies; overviews Bank activities in fiscal year 2002; examines progress on the Millennium Development Goals and project and loan performance; addresses the social, institutional, and economic dimensions of poverty; presents regional analyses of Bank operations; and provides organizational information. The second volume comprises the complete Management's Discussion and Analysis, audited financial statments of the IBRD and IDA, and appendixes.

This Annual Report covers the period from July 1, 2000, to June 30, 2001, and details the World Bank strategy for meeting the poverty challenge. After the Introduction, Chapter 1 provides an overview of Bank activities in 2001 that focused on multi-dimensional support, improved development effectiveness, increased funding volume, formalized the country business model, evolved country assistance strategies by preparing them in consultation, developed investment vehicles to support low-income countries, created a task force to consider the response to the needs of middle-income countries, developed an innovative IBRD and IDA program and project lending to support strong national programs, assessment of the Strategic Compact, the use of the World Bank Institute to empower through knowledge and setting out a strategic framework for future directions. Chapter 2 describes the role of the Board of Executive Directors. Chapter 3 examines the thematic issues the Bank is tackling, such as addressing the social, institutional...

This Annual Review of Development Effectiveness (ARDE) brings together evaluative evidence from the recent work of the Independent Evaluation Group of the World Bank to address three questions surrounding this results chain in countries, with a particular focus on the Bank's role in the chain: (a) how effectively has economic growth translated into poverty reduction in Bank-assisted countries, and what factors have affected these results? (b) what factors have led to high-quality results in areas that deliver services to the poor? (c) what measures help raise the accountability of public institutions responsible for delivering and sustaining results? The report identifies features that characterize the country experiences and assistance programs that have delivered results: (1) effective programs have a twofold focus: they emphasize both the ingredients of growth and the measures that help the poor share in the growth process; (2) they build on a realistic and well-informed assessment of the political commitment and capacity of the recipient to deliver results...

The paper revisits the site of a large, World Bank-financed, rural development program in China 10 years after it began and four years after disbursements ended. The program emphasized community participation in multi-sectoral interventions (including farming, animal husbandry, infrastructure and social services). Data were collected on 2,000 households in project and nonproject areas, spanning 10 years. A double-difference estimator of the program's impact (on top of pre-existing governmental programs) reveals sizeable short-term income gains that were mostly saved. Only modest gains to mean consumption emerged in the longer term-in rough accord with the gain to permanent income. Certain types of households gained more than others. The educated poor were under-covered by the community-based selection process-greatly reducing overall impact. The main results are robust to corrections for various sources of selection bias, including village targeting and interference due to spillover effects generated by the response of local governments to the external aid.

This annual conference is a global gathering of the world's leading scholars and practitioners. Among the attendees are participants from developing countries, think tanks, NGOs, and international institutions. The papers included in this book concern issues such as: inequality and growth in transition; trade liberalization, inequality and poverty in Latin America and the Caribbean; can economic policy overcome geographic disadvantage in Eastern Europe and the Commonwealth of Independent States; and patterns of spatial convergence and divergence in India and China.

There has been much debate recently about the role of international development institutions, such as the World Bank in middle-income countries. Some observers have suggested that middle-income countries have reached a stage in their economic development that calls into question the rationale for development institutions' continued engagement in these countries. But the authors find that middle-income countries continue to face significant development challenges. The nature of these challenges varies substantially, but all of these countries face an agenda calling for continued partnership with the international development community. Middle-income countries still have high levels of poverty. They are home to more than three-quarters of the world's poor (those living on less than U$S 2 a day). Poverty is pervasive in some middle-income countries, while in others the problem is one of major concentrations of poverty in backward areas. And recent crises have revealed the fragility of some of the gains against poverty in these countries. On the policy front...

The authors investigate recent rends in poverty, and inequality in China, decomposing data on poverty reduction to see who has benefited most from China's economic growth. They find that, by several measures, poverty declined significantly in the 1990s, across a wide range of poverty lines, except that a slight slowdown in China's export, and economic growth in 1997-99 might have hurt the poor. There was a slight increase in the poverty headcount between 1997 and 1999, using lower poverty lines, and a worsening of the poverty gap index. Average per capita consumption declined for farmers, especially those living in poor regions such as Gans, Heilongjiang, Sanxi, and Xinjiang. It is unclear whether this decline was attributable to Asia's economic crisis. Economic growth contributed significantly to poverty reduction, but rising inequality worsened both rural, and urban income distributions - except during the Asian crisis, when the distribution remained relatively stable. The poor benefited far less than the rich from economic growth. Income growth reached...

This paper examines the country-level dynamics of long-run growth in Africa between 1975 and 2005. The authors examine how growth has affected mobility and the distribution of income among countries. They analyze changes in cross-country income structure and convergence, and look for evidence of the formation of country groups or "clubs." Using a novel method of breaking up the growth histories of African economies into medium-term spells of growth accelerations and declines, the authors investigate whether a group of African "leopards" - the regional equivalent of Asia's "tigers" - is beginning to emerge.

Small-scale farmers in the Brazilian Amazon collectively hold tenure over more than 12 million ha of permanent forest reserves, as required by the Forest Code. The trade-off between forest conservation and other land uses entails opportunity costs for them and for the country, which have not been sufficiently studied. We assessed the potential income generated by multiple use forest management for farmers and compared it to the income potentially derived from six other agricultural land uses. Income from the forest was from (i) logging, carried out by a logging company in partnership with farmers? associations; and (ii) harvesting the seeds of Carapa guianensis (local name andiroba) for the production of oil. We then compared the income generated by multiple-use forest management with the income from different types of agrarian systems. According to our calculations in this study, the mean annual economic benefits from multiple forest use are the same as the least productive agrarian system, but only 25% of the annual income generated by the most productive system. Although the income generated by logging may be considered low when calculated on an annual basis and compared to incomes generated by agriculture, the one-time payment after logging is significant (US$5...

This article analyses the experience of middle—class taxpayers regarding the Brazilian Income Tax (“Imposto de Renda”). I concentrate myself mainly on the matter of not paying and also deal with two of its complementary aspects: the importance of personal relations during the process of elaborating the annual income declaration; and the process identified by taxpayers as the modernization of the “Imposto de Renda”, which has certain effects on the strategies of declarating someone's income.; O artigo examina a experiência de contribuintes de camadas médias com o Imposto de Renda. A análise está voltada principalmente para a questão da sonegação, abordando ainda dois aspectos que lhe são complementares: a importância das relações pessoais no processo de elaboração da declaração anual de rendimentos; e o processo identificado pelos contribuintes como a modernização do Imposto de Renda, que se reflete sobre as estratégias de declaração.

In 1973 the Government of Canada and the ten provinces agreed to undertake jointly a complete review of Canada's social security system. The review and development of policy options was scheduled to be completed by 1975 with the implementation of chosen options to take a further two or three years. A prominent and much debated policy option with respect to income security was a guaranteed annual income. In 1974 the Government of Canada and the Province of Manitoba agreed jointly to undertake a guaranteed annual income experiment called the Manitoba Basic Annual Income Experiment. The primary research purpose of the experiment was to provide information respecting the labour supply response of the recipients of a system of guaranteed annual income payments. The experiment officially ended in March, 1979, but did not report on the labour supply response. This study examines the history and fate of the Manitoba Basic Annual Income Experiment. Two major conclusions are drawn. The first conclusion is that the Government of Canada had decided shortly after the experiment had begun that it would not support a one-tiered guaranteed annual income program such as was being tested by the experiment. The second conclusion is that social policy research that requires the use of rigorous and complex social science methodology should be considered an important part of the normal policy-making process...