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‣ Inflation and Budget Deficit: What is the Relationship in Portugal?

Rosa, Agostinho S.
Fonte: ANPEC - Associação Nacional de Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia (Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics) Publicador: ANPEC - Associação Nacional de Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia (Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics)
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica
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The main causes of Portuguese inflation, based on annual data from 1954 to 1995, using the Johansen Method, allows us to conclude that variation in Portuguese inflation is determined essentially by foreign inflation and by variation in the effective exchange rate of the Portuguese Escudo (PTE). In the long-term, the relationship between inflation rate and the growth rate of unit labour costs is almost unitary. However, the response of inflation change to the equilibrium error between inflation rate and changes in unit labour costs is slow and almost insignificant, while the response of unit labour costs to this disequilibrium is fast and significant, what suggests that the direction of causality is much more evident from the inflation rate on unit labour costs, than the reverse. The budget deficit as a percentage of GDP, are not significant in the short-term, in relation to variation in inflation as a dependent variable. However, it is significant in the relation to unit labour costs as a dependent variable, so we can have an indirect positive relation between inflation and lagged budget deficit.

‣ Seychelles - Selected Issues : Social Protection, Labor Market and Public Enterprise Reforms - Public Expenditure Review 2

World Bank
Fonte: World Bank Publicador: World Bank
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Until 2008, Seychelles pursued a state-led economic model of self sufficiency which ultimately proved unsustainable. In 2008, precipitated by rising global commodity prices, Seychelles entered a balance of payments and debt crisis, as international reserves were virtually depleted and external debt service payments were missed. The Government of Seychelles responded quickly by floating the rupee and liberalizing the foreign exchange regime, and agreeing a program with the International Monetary Fund under a 2 year stand-by agreement in November 2008. Although the liberalization of the exchange rate in November 2008 led to initial inflation rates in excess of 60 percent, the relative prices shock was quickly absorbed. Annual inflation fell from a high of positive 63.3 percent in December 2008 to negative 1.0 in August 2010. As the price and foreign exchange controls were lifted, the informal market in foreign currency quickly disappeared. This Public Expenditure Review (PER) also provided the Bank with an analytical basis to inform development policy lending in 2010. The specific objectives of the review are to: (i) provide an update on the macroeconomic stabilization efforts and changes to the fiscal policy for medium term debt sustainability and a more efficient and affordable public sector; (ii) analyze key public enterprise reform issues...

‣ The Role of Inventory Adjustments in Quantifying Factors Causing Food Price Inflation

Hochman, Gal; Rajagopal, Deepak; Timilsina, Govinda; Zilberman, David
Fonte: Banco Mundial Publicador: Banco Mundial
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The food commodity price increases beginning in 2001 and culminating in the food crisis of 2007/08 reflected a combination of several factors, including economic growth, biofuel expansion, exchange rate fluctuations, and energy price inflation. To quantify these influences, the authors developed an empirical model that also included crop inventory adjustments. The study shows that, if inventory effects are not taken into account, the impacts of the various factors on food commodity price inflation would be overestimated. If the analysis ignores crop inventory adjustments, it indicates that prices of corn, soybean, rapeseed, rice, and wheat would have been, respectively, 42, 38, 52, and 45 percent lower than the corresponding observed prices in 2007. If inventories are properly taken into account, the contributions of the above mentioned factors to those commodity prices are 36, 26, 26, and 35 percent, respectively. Those four factors, taken together, explain 70 percent of the price increase for corn, 55 percent for soybean...

‣ Inflation Dynamics and Food Prices in an Agricultural Economy : The Case of Ethiopia

Loening, Josef L.; Durevall, Dick; Birru, Yohannes A.
Fonte: Banco Mundial Publicador: Banco Mundial
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Ethiopia has experienced a historically unprecedented increase in inflation, mainly driven by cereal price inflation, which is among the highest in Sub-Saharan Africa. Using monthly data from the past decade, the authors estimate error correction models to identify the relative importance of several factors contributing to overall inflation and its three major components, cereal prices, food prices, and non-food prices. The main finding is that, in a longer perspective, over three to four years, the main factors that determine domestic food and non-food prices are the exchange rate and international food and goods prices. In the short run, agricultural supply shocks and inflation inertia strongly affect domestic inflation, causing large deviations from long-run price trends. Money supply growth does affect food price inflation in the short run, although the money stock itself does not seem to drive inflation. The results suggest the need for a multi-pronged approach to fight inflation. Forecast scenarios suggest monetary and exchange rate policies need to take into account cereal production...

‣ Reform and Inequality During the Transition : An Analysis Using Panel Household Survey Data, 1990-2005

Milanovic, Branko; Ersado, Lire
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
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Using for the first time household survey data from 26 post-Communist countries, covering the period 1990-2005, this paper examines correlates of unprecedented increases in inequality registered by most of the economies. The analysis shows, after controlling for country fixed effects and type of survey used, that economic reform is strongly negatively associated with the income share of the bottom decile, and positively with the income shares of the top two deciles. However, breaking economic reform into its component parts, the picture is more nuanced. Large-scale privatization and infrastructure reform (mostly consisting of privatization and higher fees) are responsible for the pro-inequality effect; small-scale privatization tends to raise the income shares of the bottom deciles. Acceleration in growth is also pro-rich. But democratization is strongly pro-poor, as is lower inflation. Somewhat surprisingly, the analysis finds no evidence that greater government spending as share of gross domestic income reduces inequality.

‣ Getting Real about Inequality : Evidence from Brazil, Colombia, Mexico, and Peru

Servén, Luis; López, Humberto; Goñi, Edwin
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
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Consumption baskets vary across households and inflation rates vary across goods. As a result, standard consumer price index (CPI) inflation may provide a misleading measure of the inflation actually faced by poor households, more so the more unequal the distribution of aggregate consumption across households. Likewise, changes in observed nominal consumption inequality may be very different from those in true inequality, that is, that measured using household-specific CPIs. The authors explore empirically these issues using household data covering nine episodes from four Latin American countries (Brazil, Colombia, Mexico, and Peru). They find that in these countries standard CPI inflation typically reflects the inflation rate faced by a rich consumer located in the 80 to 90 percentile of the distribution of consumption expenditure. In most episodes the authors also find that inflation was anti-rich-that is, the inflation faced by the richest consumers was higher than the inflation faced by the poorest consumers. As a result of this bias, the observed increases in nominal inequality generally exceed the actual changes in real inequality. These results are robust to correcting for quality change bias in the CPI, to the use of alternative price indices...

‣ Annual World Bank Conference on Development Economics 1999

Pleskovic, Boris; Stiglitz, Joseph E.
Fonte: Washington, DC: World Bank Publicador: Washington, DC: World Bank
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The 1999 Annual World Bank Conference on Development Economics, the eleventh anniversary, was held at the Bank on April 28-30, 1999. The discussions focused on three trends of development: 1) the emerging international financial architecture; 2) challenges to social development; and 3) lessons from a decade of transition. Twelve papers were presented on a variety of topics including corporate governance, short-term capital flows, and the relationships between crime, violence, and inequitable development. The keynote addresses by Noble Laureate Kenneth Arrow, Secretary of the US Treasury Lawrence Summers, and Joseph E. Stiglitz, senior vice president, Development Economics and chief economist at the World Bank and former chair of the US Council of Economic Advisors, broach many of the topics that were central to the conference. They examine technological knowledge and innovation and global integration and look back at the arduous process of transition in the former Soviet Union.

‣ From Monetary Targeting to Inflation Targeting : Lessons from the Industrialized Countries

Mishkin, Frederic S.
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
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The author examines changes in monetary policy in industrial countries by evaluating, and providing case studies of monetary targeting, and inflation targeting. Inflation targeting has successfully controlled inflation, with some qualifications. It weakens the effects of inflationary shocks, as examples from Canada, Sweden, and the United Kingdom show. It can promote growth, and does not lead to increased fluctuations in output. But inflation targets do not necessarily reduce the cost of reducing inflation. The key to success of inflation targeting, is its stress on transparency, and communication with the public. Inflation targeting increases accountability, which helps ameliorate the time-inconsistency trap (in which the central bank tries to expand output, and employment in the short run, by pursuing overly expansionary monetary policy). Time-inconsistency is more likely to come from political pressures on the central bank, to engage in overly expansionary monetary policy. A key advantage of inflation targeting...

‣ Inflation and Indivisible Investment in Developing Economies

Eden, Maya; Nguyen, Ha
Fonte: World Bank Group, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank Group, Washington, DC
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In countries with limited access to finance, firms accumulate retained earnings to finance indivisible investment projects. McKinnon (1973) illustrates that when cash is used as a primary store of value, inflation may discourage investment as it increases the cost of accumulating retained earnings. This paper formalizes this argument in a dynamic framework and provides a simple calibration of the model that suggests sizable effects of inflation on investment. The mechanism is particularly relevant for small firms, as firms with lower cash flows must accumulate retained earnings for longer periods of time to meet the price of indivisible investment goods. Consistent with the model, empirical evidence suggests that inflation disproportionately reduces investment in small firms.

‣ Mergers during the first and second phase of globalization: Success, insider trading, and the role of regulation; Fusionen in der ersten und zweiten Phase der Globalisierung: Erfolg, Insider Handel und die Bedeutung von Regulierungen

Kling, Gerhard
Fonte: Universidade de Tubinga Publicador: Universidade de Tubinga
Tipo: Dissertação
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The merger wave that took place during the first phase of globalization, which lasted from 1895 to 1914, changed the industrial structure in Europe and the U.S. remarkably. Therefore, it is of great importance to assess whether mergers were successful during this period. Noteworthy, studies that evaluate the success of mergers during the first phase of globalization are still lacking for Germany. One may argue that this statement is false and could refer to Huerkamp (1979). However, he defined as success that a firm is able to stay among the 100 largest companies. Hence, shareholder value destroying mergers driven by `empire building´ that increase the firm size are seen as successful investments. Consequently, I totally disagree with his view. In contrast, I try to quantify the market response due to mergers and, hence, focus on the change in shareholder value. This imagination is in line with studies on the success of mergers for the United States and Great Britain. Generally, for the German case, economic historians concentrated on debates about the interrelation between the expansion of large scale enterprises, external growth, and mergers. Maintaining size and survivorship were seen as major factors of success. But also `traditional´ cross-country studies showed that the large German enterprise was a main guarantee for superior economic development in the pre-World-War I period. After reviewing new statistical material...

‣ Forecasting Annual Inflation with Seasonal Monthly Data: Using Levels versus Logs of the Underlying Price Index

LUETKEPOHL, Helmut; XU, Fang
Fonte: Instituto Universitário Europeu Publicador: Instituto Universitário Europeu
Tipo: Trabalho em Andamento Formato: application/pdf; digital
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This paper investigates whether using natural logarithms (logs) of price indices for forecasting inflation rates is preferable to employing the original series. Univariate forecasts for annual inflation rates for a number of European countries and the USA based on monthly seasonal consumer price indices are considered. Stochastic seasonality and deterministic seasonality models are used. In many cases the forecasts based on the original variables result in substantially smaller root mean squared errors than models based on logs. In turn, if forecasts based on logs are superior, the gains are typically small. This outcome sheds doubt on the common practice in the academic literature to forecast inflation rates based on differences of logs.

‣ Underlying inflation in the spanish economy: estimation and methodology

Espasa, Antoni; Llanos Matea, Maria de los
Fonte: Universidade Carlos III de Madrid Publicador: Universidade Carlos III de Madrid
Tipo: info:eu-repo/semantics/workingPaper; info:eu-repo/semantics/workingPaper Formato: application/pdf
Publicado em /11/1991 Português
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This paper presents a methodology to analyse the inflationary process in Spain. It is based on forecasts of the Consumer Price Index using quantitative models to obtain a measure of underlying inflation and the expected medium-term value of the annual price growth rate, which is called inertia in the paper. Every time a new observation becomes available, the study of the underlying inflation and inertia allows to be performed a systematic analysis of the inflationary process. The estimation of underlying inflation and inertia has also proven useful to improve the measurement of some important economic indicators such as inflation differentials and ex-ante real interest rates.

‣ Lao Economic Monitor, April 2015; Towards Restoring Macroeconomic Stability and Building Inclusive Growth

Phimmahasay, Keomanivone
Fonte: World Bank, Vientiane Publicador: World Bank, Vientiane
Tipo: Report; Economic & Sector Work; Economic & Sector Work :: Economic Updates and Modeling
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Based on preliminary estimates, the Lao People's Democratic Republic (PDR) economy grew by 7.5 percent in 2014, compared to an average of 8 percent over 2011-13. Looking forward, real gross domestic product (GDP) growth is projected to slow further in 2015 before accelerating in the medium term. Average annual inflation in 2014 decelerated to 4.2 percent from 6.4 percent a year earlier, driven primarily by slower growth in food prices and a decline in fuel prices. In response to a widened fiscal deficit in FY2012-13, the government embarked on much needed fiscal corrective measures in FY2013-14 and FY2014-15. Foreign exchange reserves coverage remains low as compared with prudential benchmarks. While the nominal exchange rate remained relatively stable within the band set by the Bank of Laos (BOL), the real exchange rate continued to appreciate. Indications in 2014 are that bank credit growth is slowing down sharply compared to its previous rapid pace over several years. In order to grasp new opportunities and enjoy the benefits of regional integration...

‣ Annual World Bank Conference on Development Economics 2003 : The New Reform Agenda

Pleskovic, Boris; Stern, Nicholas
Fonte: Washington, DC: World Bank and Oxford University Press Publicador: Washington, DC: World Bank and Oxford University Press
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Publication; Publications & Research :: Publication
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The Annual World Bank Conference on Development Economics seeks to expand the flow of ideas among development policy researchers, academics, and practitioners from around the world. It is a premier forum for World Bank and other experts to exchange ideas, challenge one another's findings, and expand theoretical and practical knowledge of development. Each year the topics selected for the conference represent new matters of concern or areas that will benefit from a review of what we know and from the identification of what still needs to be explored and expanded. This year's conference, held at the World Bank on April 29-30, 2002, addressed four themes: trade and poverty, Africa's future in terms of industrial and/or agricultural development, education and empowerment, and investment climate and productivity, with Andrew Berg and Anne Krueger, Paul Collier, Simeon Djankov, Rafael La Porta, Florencio Lopez-De-Silanes, and Andrei Schleifer, Ravi Kanbur, Carmen M. Reinhart and Kenneth S. Rogoff, L. Alan Winters...

‣ The Gambia - Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper Annual Progress Report and Joint IDA-IMF Staff Advisory Note

World Bank
Fonte: World Bank Publicador: World Bank
Tipo: Economic & Sector Work :: Other Urban Study
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The Gambian authorities completed the 2007 poverty reduction strategy paper (PRSP) annual progress report (APR) in October 2008. This is the first APR for the country's second PRSP, which covers the years 2007 to 2011.' The overall strategic priorities of the PRSP are: (i) macroeconomic stability and effective public resource management; (ii) promotion of pro-poor growth and employment through private sector development; (iii) improved basic social services; (iv) strengthened local communities and civil society organizations (CSOs); and (v) mainstreamed multisectoral programs on gender, environment, nutrition, and population. The PRSP incorporates programs focused on the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs). The APR is complemented by a 2008 report on progress towards the MDGs and a report which analyzes poverty related public expenditures in 2007. The APR analyzes key elements of the PRSP implementation, including macroeconomic performance, public sector reform, real sector performance such as agriculture and tourism...

‣ Financial Globalization and the Russian Crisis of 1998

Pinto, Brian; Ulatov, Sergei
Fonte: Banco Mundial Publicador: Banco Mundial
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper
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Russia had more-or-less completed the privatization of its manufacturing and natural resource sectors by the end of 1997. And in February 1998, the annual inflation rate at last dipped into the single digits. Privatization should have helped with stronger micro-foundations for growth. The conquest of inflation should have cemented macroeconomic credibility, lowered real interest rates, and spurred investment. Instead, Russia suffered a massive public debt-exchange rate-banking crisis just six months later, in August 1998. In showing how this turn of events unfolded, the authors focus on the interaction among Russia's deteriorating fiscal fundamentals, its weak micro-foundations of growth and financial globalization. They argue that the expectation of a large official bailout in the final 10 weeks before the meltdown played an important role, with Russia's external debt increasing by $16 billion or 8 percent of post-crisis gross domestic product during this time. The lessons and insights extracted from the 1998 Russian crisis are of general applicability...

‣ Annual World Bank Conference on Development Economics--Regional 2007 : Beyond Transition

Bourguignon, François; Pleskovic, Boris
Fonte: Washington, DC: World Bank Publicador: Washington, DC: World Bank
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Publication; Publications & Research :: Publication
Português
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This annual conference is a global gathering of the world's leading scholars and practitioners. Among the attendees are participants from developing countries, think tanks, NGOs, and international institutions. The papers included in this book concern issues such as: inequality and growth in transition; trade liberalization, inequality and poverty in Latin America and the Caribbean; can economic policy overcome geographic disadvantage in Eastern Europe and the Commonwealth of Independent States; and patterns of spatial convergence and divergence in India and China.

‣ Price Dispersion and Optimal Inflation: the Spanish Case

Caraballo; María Ángeles; Dabús, Carlos Darío
Fonte: Elsevier Publicador: Elsevier
Tipo: info:eu-repo/semantics/article; info:ar-repo/semantics/artículo; info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion Formato: application/pdf
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This paper studies the relation between inflation and relative price variability (RPV) in Spain during the 1987-2009 period. We find that this relation presents a U-shape profile, and that the optimal annual inflation rate (defined as the one that minimizes RPV) is around 4%, higher than the 2% inflation target proposed by the European Monetary Union. More importantly, this result does not depend on whether the monetary regime is before or after the euro. Hence, the main policy implication is that disinflation efforts to achieve the 2% inflation target result in welfare losses. The key link between inflation and RPV is unexpected inflation, whose optimal level is around zero. This suggests that monetary policy matters: the welfare costs associated with higher RPV can be minimized with a credible and predictable inflation targeting policy set at the appropriate level.; Fil: Caraballo; María Ángeles. Universidad de Sevilla; España;; Fil: Dabús, Carlos Darío. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Cientí­ficas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico - CONICET - Bahía Blanca. Instituto de Investigaciones Económicas y Sociales del Sur; Argentina; Universidad Nacional del Sur; Argentina;

‣ The Inflation-Growth Nexus in India: an Empirical Analysis

Kalirajan, K P; Singh, Kanhaiya
Fonte: Elsevier Publicador: Elsevier
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica
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Given the growing concern, particularly in the EMU area that excessively low inflation threshold may hurt economic growth, the objective of this study is to examine whether a developing countries perspective is different. The empirical analysis is done using the annual data from India for the period of 1971-1998. A specific question that is addressed in this paper is what is the threshold inflation rate for India. The findings clearly suggest that the increase in inflation from any level has negative effect on economic growth and substantial gains can be obtained by focusing the monetary policy towards maintaining price stability.

‣ Modelação e previsão da taxa de inflação de Angola

Pereira, Vera Margarida Vieira Palma
Fonte: Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestão Publicador: Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestão
Tipo: Dissertação de Mestrado
Publicado em //2015 Português
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Mestrado em Econometria Aplicada e Previsão; O objectivo deste trabalho consiste em comparar os resultados obtidos da previsão das taxas de inflação mensal e homóloga de Angola, usando diferentes modelos (univariados e multivariados) e estratégias. Nos modelos univariados (ARIMA) adoptaram-se quatro estratégias em que a modelação e previsão foram realizadas sobre: os preços das 12 classes que compõem o IPC, na primeira; as variações mensal e homóloga dos preços das 12 classes que compõem o IPC, na segunda; o IPC, na terceira; as variações mensal e homóloga do IPC, na quarta. Nos modelos multivariados (VAR/VEC) utilizaram-se duas estratégias em que a modelação e previsão foram executadas sobre: o IPC, na primeira e as variações mensal e homóloga do IPC, na segunda. Em ambos os casos, foram incluídas variáveis endógenas (oferta de moeda e taxa de câmbio) e exógenas (preço do petróleo, taxa de juro e dummy sazonal) e criados cenários preditivos para a taxa de inflação de Angola. Com a análise realizada, conclui-se que os modelos ARIMA (estratégia 4) apresentaram melhor ajustamento para a previsão da taxa de inflação mensal, em comparação com a taxa de inflação homóloga cujos melhores resultados foram obtidos com os modelos VAR/VEC (estratégia 1); The main purpose of this document is to compare the predictions obtained on Angola's monthly and homologous (annual) inflation rate...