As demonstrações contábeis divulgadas pelas empresas têm sido objeto de diversos estudos. Tem-se tentado com as informações contábeis derivar modelos de orientação para investidores e credores, por meio da chamada análise de balanços. Muitos livros foram escritos sobre análise de balanços. O tema transformou-se em disciplinas em cursos de graduação e pós-graduação. E, para alguns, mais do que uma técnica, a análise de balanços, ou ainda, a análise de demonstrações contábeis, é uma arte. Construíram-se indicadores de previsão de insolvência, com base em instrumentos quantitativos sofisticados. ALTMAN (1968) foi precursor da aplicação de métodos quantitativos em informações contábeis com a finalidade de desenvolver modelos de previsão de falência. No Brasil, o estudo pioneiro é de Stephen Charles KANITZ (1974), que originou seu livro Como prever falências. Posteriormente, outros pesquisadores brasileiros desenvolveram modelos semelhantes, utilizando-se de técnicas estatísticas de regressões, análises fatoriais e discriminantes, redes neurais e outras (ELIZABETSKY, 1976; MATIAS, 1978; CORRAR, 1981; PEREIRA DA SILVA, 1982; ALMEIDA, 1993; MATIAS e SIQUEIRA, 1996). E esses mesmos balanços têm sido utilizados em estudos que buscam definir a excelência do desempenho das empresas. Foi também KANITZ que iniciou...

Background: Accurate data on dietary habits are crucial for understanding impacts on disease and informing policy priorities. Nation-specific food balance sheets from the United Nations FAO provided the only available global dietary estimates but with uncertain validity. Objectives: We investigated how FAO estimates compared with nationally representative, individual-based dietary surveys from the Global Dietary Database (GDD) and developed calibration equations to improve the validity of FAO data to estimate dietary intakes. Design: FAO estimates were matched to GDD data for 113 countries across the following 9 major dietary metrics for 30 y of data (1980–2009): fruit, vegetables, beans and legumes, nuts and seeds, whole grains, red and processed meats, fish and seafood, milk, and total energy. Both absolute and percentage differences in FAO and GDD mean estimates were evaluated. Linear regression was used to evaluate whether FAO estimates predicted GDD dietary intakes and whether this prediction varied according to age, sex, region, and time. Calibration equations were developed to adjust FAO estimates to approximate national dietary surveys validated by using randomly split data sets. Results: For most food groups, FAO estimates substantially overestimated individual-based dietary intakes by 74.5% (vegetables) and 270% (whole grains) while underestimating beans and legumes (−50%) and nuts and seeds (−29%) (P < 0.05 for each). In multivariate regressions...

This paper assesses the extent to which debt overhang poses a constraint to economic activity in Emerging Europe, as the region emerges from the recent financial and economic crisis. At the macroeconomic level, it finds that the external imbalance problem for Emerging Europe has been in most cases more one of flows (high current account deficits in the pre-crisis years) rather than large stocks of external debt. A high reliance on equity funding means that net external debt is far lower than net external liabilities. Domestic balance sheets have expanded quite rapidly but sector liabilities remain relatively low compared with advanced economies. With the important exception of Hungary, public debt levels also remain relatively low in Emerging Europe. At the microeconomic level, the potential for debt overhang in the corporate sector is limited to a few countries: Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia, and Slovenia. Due to the low incidence of household debt, hardly any country, except Estonia, seems to face a threat of debt overhang in the household sector. The strong increase in non-performing loans compared with pre-crisis bank profitability suggests that debt overhang in the banking sector is a threat in Ukraine...

The main purpose of this paper is to examine the growing use of derivatives by Danish pension institutions as a risk management tool to hedge embedded options on their balance sheets. Throughout the 1980s and 1990s it was a widespread practice for Danish pension institutions to guarantee a minimum interest rate on new pension policies. With the new millennium global interest rates declined steeply and equity markets came crashing down. Suddenly the guarantees on pension contracts were in the money. The policies already written could not be changed, leaving liabilities and assets mismatched, profits in the red, and capital reserves drained. Out of necessity, and in some cases virtue, Danish pension institutions turned in scale to derivatives, allowing for a more active approach to hedging, asset and liability management, and even profit generation. Through the use of derivatives, pension institutions have avoided the need to renegotiate their guaranteed contracts with policy holders. They have succeeded as an industry in transforming their pay-off curves and have emerged with better matched asset/liability positions and lower exposure to interest rate risk. But the expanded use of derivatives also raises some risk management and regulatory issues...

Project financing of independent power producers (IPPs) may seem the only solution to the intractable problem of getting private credit to the power sector. In the developing world, however, the public-private partnership in project-financed IPP ventures has been slow to produce results. To achieve substantive progress in IPP financing, limited recourse project financing will have to evolve toward structures with greater balance sheet support. First, balance sheet support by the main partners in an IPP financing offers greater security to lenders and provides easier access to long-term debt. Second, balance sheet support by IPP sponsors can open access to public equity markets, which are deeper and generally cheaper. Third, increased corporate balance sheet support is a corollary to the restructuring in the world s power sectors. Greater corporate finance support will make it possible to raise private capital for independent power financing from wider, deeper, and cheaper sources. This Note recommends the following strategies: 1) Encourage the formation of large...

The Californian power crisis appears to have greatly rekindled the latent doubts on moving to more competitive market structures for such an essential service as electricity. The recent collapse of Enron and several other industrial giants, as well as doubts about the reliability of external audits (resulting, in particular, in the collapse of Arthur Anderson) and the slide in the stock values of AES and other companies has eroded the confidence in the institutional pillars of the market, such as corporate disclosure, external audit, and oversight by regulators and Security Exchange Commissions. Major energy investors, at least in North America, seem to be anxious to clean up their balance sheets to eliminate from their portfolio unprofitable and risky investments. Against this backdrop, the objective of this study is to review the experiences in the ECA regio

The author defines a financial crisis as a disruption in financial markets in which adverse selection and moral hazard problems become much worse, so that financial markets are unable to efficiently channel funds to those who have the most productive investment opportunities. As financial markets become unable to function efficiently, economic activity sharply contracts. Factors that promote financial crises include, mainly, a deterioration in financial sector balance sheets, increases in interest rates and in uncertainty, and deterioration in nonfinancial balance sheets because of changes in asset prices. Financial policies in 12 areas could help make financial crises less likely in emerging market economies, says the author. He discusses: Prudential supervision. Accounting and disclosure requirements. Legal and judicial systems. Market-based discipline. Entry of foreign banks. Capital controls. Reduction of the role of state-owned financial institutions. Restrictions on foreign-dominated debt. The elimination of too-big-to-fail practices in the corporate sector. The proper sequencing of financial liberalization. Monetary policy and price stability. Exchange rate regimes and foreign exchange reserves. If the political will to adopt sound policies in these areas grows in emerging market economies...

The East Asian crisis began in Thailand in mid-1997 when an ailing financial sector, a slowdown in exports, and large increases in central bank credit to weak financial institutions, triggered a run on the baht. Then the crisis spread to other countries in the region, as common vulnerabilities, and revaluations of risk in emerging markets, triggered large capital flows. To better understand the impact of different policy responses to financial crises, the authors investigate how stock markets in East Asian countries reacted to the initial policy announcements of bank, and financial restructuring - especially how banking, and non-financial sectors in Indonesia, the Republic of Korea, Malaysia, and Thailand, fared in response to announcements of different restructuring measures. They find that prices of bank stocks, responded positively to announcements about government guarantees of bank liabilities. Non-financial companies gained in value when guarantees were announced, but their stock prices were negatively affected by announcements favoring public re-capitalization schemes...

External financing conditions for developing countries have been remarkably favorable in recent months, reflecting expectations of a more drawn-out period of monetary policy accommodation in high-income countries and some narrowing of external vulnerabilities. Additional easing by the European Central Bank, combined with prospects of modest growth and stable inflation in the United States ( Goldilocks recovery ), helped pull down bond yields and volatility worldwide. These benign conditions currently provide support to capital inflows and activity across developing countries, but could at the same time increase the risk of greater and potentially more abrupt market adjustments ahead. Despite some reduction of current account deficits in several developing countries, many remain vulnerable to sudden shifts in investors sentiment and capital outflows. Following a brief period of market turmoil at the start of the year, global financing conditions have eased consider-ably from March to June. Bond spreads for developing countries (i.e. yield difference with 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds) have narrowed...

Catastrophe exposure in Tanzania is limited and the key perils are drought and flood. These events have minimal impact on GDP but severe impacts on individuals in the agriculture sector, increasing their vulnerability. Thus, while there are merits to developing the agriculture insurance market in Tanzania, less of a case can be made to develop the catastrophe insurance market. Engagement in Tanzania to develop private sector catastrophe risk and agriculture insurance should be seen as a medium to long term engagement. Banking penetration is low, as is insurance and micro-insurance penetration, even when compared to regional countries. In addition, the insurance industry has struggled in recent years with profitability, indicating that insurance technical capacity within the country may be limited. There are low levels of local reinsurance capacity, with the majority of risks being reinsured off-shore. Thus development of catastrophe and agriculture insurance in Tanzania shall involve a multi-year engagement. Initially it is of paramount importance that insurance companies can manage insurance risk correctly (before beginning to think about adding covariate risks to their balance sheets). Expansion of disaster risk insurance into Tanzania could be seen as a second phase of an engagement looking to develop these markets in Eastern Africa...

Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited; The purpose of this research was to analyze the utility of audited financial statements within the Department of Defense (DOD). The authors compared the balance sheet between the commercial and government sectors. First, they examined the differences in the elements of the balance sheets based on the different applicable accounting standards. Second, given those differences, the authors evaluated whether standard industry financial ratios based on balance sheet elements are comparable in government balance sheets. The authors recommended adjustments to ratio formulas where applicable. Third, they evaluated whether corporate ratios are useful when examining government balance sheets. The primary objective of the project was to assess the utility of the balance sheet for DOD users. Because the users of government financial statements need different information than users of corporate statements, the utility naturally varies. Common corporate ratios, with some modification, may provide utility to users of government statements, and federal-specific ratios may be useful. The utility varies depending on the level of aggregation of the data.

Indias economy expanded by 7.3 percent in FY14-15 and 7.0 percent in Q1 FY15-16 (y/y). Industrial growth increased and despite government services slowing down, services expanded. Domestic drivers increased, while exports declined. Private consumption growth stayed strong and investments gained momentum. Gross domestic product is expected to increase gradually to 7.5 percent in FY15-16. The positive outlook is dependent upon the implementation of important domestic reforms which include: boosting the balance sheets of the banking sector through a sustainable solution of the debt overhang of primarily power and road infrastructure firms, continuing to improve the ease of doing business and enacting the crucial Goods and Services Tax, and enhancing capacity of state and local governments to deliver public services as more resources are devolved from the centre.

This report summarizes the main findings and policy recommendations within the context of the Financial Sector Assessment Program (FSAP). Considerable progress has been made in macroeconomic stabilization. Real GDP growth has progressively strengthened, inflation has been subdued, and the overall fiscal deficit and public debt, brought down markedly. However, while macroeconomic stabilization has helped limit vulnerabilities, and improve performance in the financial sector, the outlook remains subject to a number of risks, conducive to future credit quality problems. In addition, a widely anticipated rise in interest rates, and tighter liquidity conditions could adversely impact banks' balance sheets. Finally, a change in the domestic or international political environment, could lead to a drying of remittances, which have been unusually high in recent years. Moreover, to consolidate recent structural reforms and protect the system from future policy reversals, the process of privatization and legal reforms needs to continue. The reform process is not equally advanced across all segments of the financial sector. Insurance penetration is very low relative to other countries at Pakistan's income level, reflecting a number of factors...

Three main features characterize the international financial integration of China and India. First, while only having a small global share of privately-held external assets and liabilities (with the exception of China's foreign direct investment liabilities), these countries are large holders of official reserves. Second, their international balance sheets are highly asymmetric: both are "short equity, long debt." Third, China and India have improved their net external positions over the past decade although, based on their income level, neoclassical models would predict them to be net borrowers. Domestic financial developments and policies seem essential in understanding these patterns of integration. These include financial liberalization and exchange rate policies, domestic financial sector policies, and the impact of financial reform on savings and investment rates. Changes in these factors will affect the international financial integration of China and India (through shifts in capital flows and asset and liability holdings) and...

During a financial crisis, credit provision by international banks may be stymied by three distinct, but related, channels: changes in lending standards as a result of increased economic uncertainty, changes in funding availability from interbank liquidity markets, and changes in solvency due to effects on bank balance sheets. This paper illuminates the manner by which each of these channels independently operated to affect developed-country bank lending in developing countries during the global financial crisis of 2007/09. It quantifies how changes in banks' uncertainty about the value of their asset holdings, access to interbank liquidity, and internal balance sheet considerations altered their supply of credit in the run-up, during, and in the immediate aftermath of the financial crisis, both in terms of their relative magnitudes, as well as the sensitivity of these magnitudes to the crisis.

The newly elected government takes office at a time of stark economic challenges. The outfall of the global economic crisis threatens to undo many of the achievements of the recent past, derail convergence with the European Union (EU), and heighten social vulnerability. The election of a strong government offers a timely opportunity to restore and broaden the economic reform agenda which had been initiated before EU accession and but lost some momentum since 2007. Decisive action could shorten the length and reduce the depth of the crisis by restoring market confidence and improving economic prospects. Restoring the health of the economy and returning to the convergence path requires concerted policy actions to unwind economic imbalances and advance much needed structural reforms. The two-way policy response would aim to: 1) bring about fiscal consolidation and restructure public finances, strengthen financial stability, and mitigate the social impact of the crisis in the short-run; 2) and step up structural reform to address deep seated economic problems which both magnify the impact of the international crisis and hamper longer-term convergence prospects in the medium-run. The World Bank stands ready to support the structural transformation of Bulgaria. The Government is strongly committed to maintaining the currency board with the euro adoption as an exit strategy. Yet...

The Indonesia Economic Quarterly (IEQ) has two main aims. First, it reports on the key developments over the past three months in Indonesia's economy, and places these in a longer term and global context. Based on these developments and on policy changes over the period, the IEQ regularly updates the outlook for Indonesia's economy and social welfare. Second, the IEQ provides a more in-depth examination of selected economic and policy issues, and analysis of Indonesia's medium-term development challenges. It is intended for a wide audience, including policymakers, business leaders, financial market participants, and the community of analysts and professionals engaged in Indonesia's evolving economy. Indonesia's fiscal and monetary policy settings will continue to play a key role in facilitating the adjustments now taking place and in minimizing associated risks. There are, however, trade-offs between the objectives of restraining inflation, supporting growth and adjusting the current account deficit to the tighter financing environment. Monetary policy faces the challenge of calibrating interest and exchange rates so as to guard against rising inflationary pressures as cost pressures rise (such as from the pass-through of the weaker currency or wage increases) while facilitating improvements in the external balances...

To date most private sector water projects have been financed on a limited recourse basis, that is, with project cash flows and assets as the main security for lenders. The move from project to corporate (balance sheet) financing is occurring in stages. Financing project debt from the sponsor company's balance sheet exposes that company to significant risk and thus requires a strong and large balance sheet. Designed in part to shield a company's balance sheet, innovative financing structures and instruments are emerging. Ultimately, the goal is for water utilities to raise debt and equity from capital markets on the basis of their own balance sheets, strengthened by a diversified and stable rate-paying customer base. The authors review the new trends.

This paper provides a comprehensive, global database of deposit insurance arrangements as of 2013. The authors extend their earlier dataset by including recent adopters of deposit insurance and information on the use of government guarantees on banks' assets and liabilities, including during the recent global financial crisis. They also create a Safety Net Index capturing the generosity of the deposit insurance scheme and government guarantees on banks' balance sheets. The data show that deposit insurance has become more widespread and more extensive in coverage since the global financial crisis, which also triggered a temporary increase in the government protection of non-deposit liabilities and bank assets. In most cases, these guarantees have since been formally removed but coverage of deposit insurance remains above pre-crisis levels, raising concerns about implicit coverage and moral hazard going forward.

This is the final version of the article. It first appeared from the American Society for Nutrition via http://dx.doi.org/10.3945/?ajcn.114.087403; Background: Accurate data on dietary habits are crucial for understanding impacts on disease and informing policy priorities. Nation-specific food balance sheets from the United Nations FAO provided the only available global dietary estimates but with uncertain validity. Objectives: We investigated how FAO estimates compared with nationally representative, individual-based dietary surveys from the Global Dietary Database (GDD) and developed calibration equations to improve the validity of FAO data to estimate dietary intakes. Design: FAO estimates were matched to GDD data for 113 countries across the following 9 major dietary metrics for 30 y of data (1980?2009): fruit, vegetables, beans and legumes, nuts and seeds, whole grains, red and processed meats, fish and seafood, milk, and total energy. Both absolute and percentage differences in FAO and GDD mean estimates were evaluated. Linear regression was used to evaluate whether FAO estimates predicted GDD dietary intakes and whether this prediction varied according to age, sex, region, and time. Calibration equations were developed to adjust FAO estimates to approximate national dietary surveys validated by using randomly split data sets. Results: For most food groups...