Esta dissertação versa sobre o controle do endividamento dos Estados, do Distrito Federal e dos Municípios, analisando as questões jurídicas daí decorrentes em face da sua autono-mia. São examinados em primeiro lugar conceitos e classificações relacionados à dívida pública. Posteriormente, é exposta a relevância do endividamento para a atividade finan-ceira dos entes subnacionais, e as razões que tornam necessário o seu controle pela União, a fim de preservar a estabilidade econômica. Noutro giro, são analisados os quatro métodos de controle do endividamento dos entes subnacionais vigentes em diferentes países, com o aprofundamento dos métodos vigentes no Brasil. Por fim, após incursão histórica na evolu-ção da dívida dos entes subnacionais, analisam-se dispositivos da Lei de Responsabilidade Fiscal cuja constitucionalidade é discutível por ferir a autonomia dos Estados, do Distrito Federal e dos Municípios.; This dissertation is about the control of borrowing of the States, Federal District and Mu-nicipalities and analyses legal issues arising therefrom in light of their autonomy. Firstly, concepts and classification related to the public debt are analyzed. Later, the relevance of borrowing for the financial activity of subnational governments and the reasons that make its control by the Federal government necessary in order to preserve economic stability are exposed. In another turn...

Language evolution is traditionally described in terms of family trees with ancestral languages splitting into descendent languages. However, it has long been recognized that language evolution also entails horizontal components, most commonly through lexical borrowing. For example, the English language was heavily influenced by Old Norse and Old French; eight per cent of its basic vocabulary is borrowed. Borrowing is a distinctly non-tree-like process—akin to horizontal gene transfer in genome evolution—that cannot be recovered by phylogenetic trees. Here, we infer the frequency of hidden borrowing among 2346 cognates (etymologically related words) of basic vocabulary distributed across 84 Indo-European languages. The dataset includes 124 (5%) known borrowings. Applying the uniformitarian principle to inventory dynamics in past and present basic vocabularies, we find that 1373 (61%) of the cognates have been affected by borrowing during their history. Our approach correctly identified 117 (94%) known borrowings. Reconstructed phylogenetic networks that capture both vertical and horizontal components of evolutionary history reveal that, on average, eight per cent of the words of basic vocabulary in each Indo-European language were involved in borrowing during evolution. Basic vocabulary is often assumed to be relatively resistant to borrowing. Our results indicate that the impact of borrowing is far more widespread than previously thought.

Despite the scale of the global financial crisis, to date it has not resulted in a sovereign debt crisis among emerging market countries. Two significant factors in this outcome are the improved macroeconomic management and public debt management in these countries over the past decade. This paper reviews the improvements in macroeconomic fundamentals and the composition of public debt portfolios in emerging market countries prior to the crisis and concludes that the policies and strategies pursued by governments provided them with a buffer when the crisis hit. Nevertheless, with the international capital markets effectively closed for over three months and domestic borrowing in many cases impacted by extreme risk aversion, government debt managers were required to adapt their strategies to rapidly changing circumstances. The paper reviews the impact of the crisis and the responses of debt managers to the drying up of international capital, decreased liquidity in markets, and sharply increased term premia. Three categories of response are identified: (i) funding from other sources to reduce pressure on market borrowing; (ii) adapting funding programs to changes in demand in the different types of securities; and (iii) implementing liability management operations to support the market. Most governments were willing to accept temporarily greater risk in their portfolios...

This report reviews the need for long-term loans for regional governments, assesses the capacity of regional governments to repay long-term loans, identifies existing constraints to long-term borrowing by the regions, and recommends options for removing or mitigating existing constraints. The Government of Indonesia issued a government regulation on regional borrowing and unlike its legal predecessor, the newer regulation allows regional governments to borrow long term for public infrastructure projects that are indirectly revenue-generating, such as roads and flood control systems. Until the late 1990s, a major portion of long-term loans to regional governments was financed by international financial institutions, mainly the Asian Development Bank and the World Bank. In view of the need to increase investments in public infrastructure, and the absence of a domestic market for long-term financing, Government of Indonesia is currently considering re-opening this window by establishing a Municipal Development Fund in the Ministry of Finance.

A World Bank mission visited Kazakhstan from July 15-23, 2010, to undertake a comprehensive assessment of debt management operations using the Debt Management Performance Assessment tool (DeMPA). The DeMPA report provides an overview of strengths and weaknesses in government debt management in Kazakhstan, as evaluated at end-July, 2010. The scores demonstrate that areas of strength clearly outnumber areas where policies and practices fall short of minimum standards for effective debt management. Areas of strength include the legal framework, governance, and operational risk management, coordination with fiscal and monetary policies, as well as debt recording and reporting. Such strengths are impressive, taking into account the relatively low debt level and modest recourse to both domestic and external borrowing. However, many areas displaying relatively low scores would benefit from attention and reform. This need is most pressing in the context of developing a medium-term debt management strategy, which would involve outlining the preferred composition of debt based on cost-risk analyses...

From February 19 to 28, 2009, a World Bank team undertook a debt management performance assessment (DeMPA) mission to Honiara, Solomon Islands. The objective was to undertake a comprehensive assessment of debt management functions applying the DeMPA tool. The assessment reveals that the Solomon Islands meets the minimum requirements for effective debt management performance as specified by the DeMPA tool on the legal framework, coordination with monetary policy, and debt reporting. While taking note of substantial efforts to improve performance in a number of areas, the assessment also found that the Solomon Islands does not meet the minimum requirements for the indicators assessing the debt management strategy, managerial structure, coordination with fiscal policy, domestic borrowing, cash flow forecasting and cash balance management, debt records, and debt recording. The mission also identified the following areas that require improvement and could be considered priorities for capacity building and reform: evaluation of debt management operations; auditing; external borrowing; loan guarantees...

The DeMPA is a methodology for assessing public debt management performance through a comprehensive set of indicators spanning the full range of government debt management functions. The DeMPA tool presents debt performance indicators along with a scoring methodology. This report pertains to a debt management performance assessment of Nigeria in 2012. Areas with very high scores include the managerial set-up, evaluation of debt management operations, as well as domestic and external borrowing practices. There have been substantial improvements in management of operational risks, demonstrated by the availability of procedures manuals and data security and back-ups, and in debt reporting.

The seven countries of South Eastern Europe (Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, FYR Macedonia, Romania, and Serbia and Montenegro) are in the process of transition, undertaking significant fiscal adjustment as they seek to move to a path of sustainable growth. Previous high debt has been reduced and/or restructured for most countries, which have committed to a path of fiscal responsibility as one of the key ingredients in the recovery process. Fiscal consolidation is also necessary in order to prepare the ground for future entry into the European Union (EU), including for being in a position to incur expenditures arising from the obligations of future EU membership. A significant amount of new borrowing for infrastructure investment is being contemplated by these countries, often based on bilateral and multilateral funding. This short approach paper seeks to set out the key issues that will need to be kept in mind when evaluating the proposed borrowing and investments. While the note is indicative...

The authors examine the extent to which permanent terms-of-trade shocks have an asymmetric effect on private savings. Using a simple three-period model, they show that if households expect to face binding constraints on borrowing in bad states of nature (when the economy is in a long trough rather than a sharp peak). Savings rates will respond asymmetrically to favorable movements in the permanent component of the terms of trade - in contrast with the predictions of conventional consumption-smoothing models. They test the asymmetric effects of terms-of-trade disturbances using an econometric model that controls for various standard determinants of private savings. The results - based on panel data for non-oil commodity exporters of Sub-Saharan Africa for 1980-96 (a group of countries for which movements in the terms of trade have traditionally represented a key source of macroeconomic shocks) - indicate that increases in the permanent component of the terms of trade (measured using three alternative filtering techniques) indeed tend to be associated with higher rates of private savings.

Government debt continues to expand, reaching over all 872 billion, approximately 62 percent of gross domestic product (GDP), as of end-September 2013. Domestic debt grew sharply in the first half of 2013, emanating largely from poor tax revenue performance, together with the accumulation of a large stock of unpaid bills and arrears. External debt creditors comprise multilaterals, bilateral creditors, and private creditors. The concentrated nature of the investor base and the high domestic debt stock limit the choices available to debt management, particularly with regards to extending the maturity of the domestic debt. Public debt management in Albania follows an organized process but will benefit from a number of technical changes. The domestic borrowing plan has been revised frequently due to unexpected flows in the treasury account. In an environment of volatile treasury balances, cash flows safety nets or minimum cash buffers should be implemented. A number of initiatives are recommended to improve the transmission of price signals in the primary market - overall this will provide incentives for secondary market development. To support the development of the secondary market the General Directorate of public debt management should modify its issuance program and focus on key maturities on the yield curve. It is suggested that the issuance program takes a small step in this direction by limiting the number of tenors and focusing on for example...

The note highlights the importance of sound intergovernmental fiscal relations, and proper regulation for successful sub-national borrowing, and illustrates the potential macroeconomic hazards of decentralizing borrowing powers, arguing that the impact of a possible moral hazard problem, namely, the access to financial markets by sub-national governments, may generate unplanned liabilities for central governments. Yet academia, and country experiences do not suggest adverse links between decentralized borrowing powers, and the central government's ability to maintain fiscal discipline, and macroeconomic stability. Rather the key seems to lie in the design of fiscal decentralization, particularly the regulatory framework under which borrowing powers are decentralized. The note outlines the reasons why sub-national governments require access to financial markets: to finance capital spending, and foster political accountability, which can be achieved through direct borrowing by central government, through a public financial intermediary...

The reform plan pillars outlined in this report build on the findings of the 2013 World Bank Debt Management Performance Assessment (DeMPA) for Madagascar and the discussions held during this mission with the central government representatives. Recent presidential elections and envisaged inauguration of the new government provides an enabling environment for engaging into broad economic and institutional reforms. Improvement of the governance practices and continuation of the public finance management reforms are among priorities stipulated in the President's reform agenda. It is important to mention that during the last two years MoFB's Treasury undertook a number of initiatives to improve government debt management. The Public Debt Directorate (DDP) was reorganized in 2012 and additional staff was hired during the last calendar year. Improvement of existing legal framework was initiated by the DDP in close cooperation with legal advisers of the Treasury. The main areas of reforms identified include: (i) improvement of the legal framework...

Since 1991 the share of sub-national outlays in total government spending has increased, reflecting their active role in service delivery and greater autonomy in policy-making and implementation. As a result, sub-national economic policies have taken on an increasingly important role in ensuring macroeconomic stability. The rising share of sub-national finance, including sub-national Governments (SNGs) debt as a share of general public debt abundantly reflects this trend of greater devolution of spending responsibilities, revenue - raising authority and the capacity to incur debt. The growing importance of SNG finances and the recognition that the trend can pose dangers to macroeconomic stability have informed different institutional responses to the difficulties of decentralized decision-making, especially addressing the need to improve policy coordination across levels of government and contain sub-national borrowing. The purpose of this paper is to articulate some issues in SNG borrowing arising from the peculiarities of the Nigerian situation. To this end...

It is easy to say that the International Monetary Fund should not resort to financial rescue for countries in crisis; this is hard to do when there is no alternative. That is where collective action clauses come in. Collective action clauses are designed to facilitate debt restructuring by the principals - borrowers, and lenders - with minimal intervention by international financial institutions. Despite much discussion of this option, there has been little action. Issues of bonds fear that collective action clauses would raise borrowing costs. The authors update earlier findings about the impact of collective action clauses on borrowing costs. It has been argued that only in the past year or so, have investors focused on the presence of these provisions, and that, given the international financial institutions' newfound resolve to "bail in" investors, they now regard these clauses with trepidation. Extending their data to 1999, the authors find no evidence of such changes, but rather the same pattern as before: Collective action clauses raise the costs of borrowing for low-rated issuers...

Using the World Bank Enterprise Survey covering 6,800 firms across 43 developing countries, this paper investigates the prevalence and determinants of collateralized borrowing. It focuses on the following two aspects: (1) whether firms' loans from financial institutions require collateral (the extensive margin) and (2) the collateral value relative to the loan value (the intensive margin). On the first aspect, it finds that collateral borrowing is prevalent. On average, 73 percent of loans from financial institutions require collateral. Firms that are small or sell domestically are significantly less likely to pledge collateral. Shorter loans and loans from non-bank financial institutions are also less often associated with collateral. On the second aspect, it finds that on average the loan value is at least 72 percent of the collateral value. The only robust and significant determinants of the collateral value are the type of assets used for collateral. The analysis also checks whether countries' income and institutions affect collateralized borrowing. It finds that firms in countries with higher income and better institutions and credit information are significantly less likely to pledge collateral. These factors...

This paper analyzes the status of public debt management performance in 17 small states through the findings of the Debt Management Performance Assessment reports. Empirical evidence indicates that the higher the quality of a country's policies and institutions, the better is its capacity to carry debt and withstand exogenous shocks. Borrowing for productive purposes can be an important element in boosting growth of gross domestic product but, conversely, excessive borrowing or poorly structured debt in terms of maturity, currency, or interest rate composition can quickly offset the positive impact, deter new foreign and domestic investment, compromise reform programs, depress growth of gross domestic product, exacerbate the challenge of meeting debt service obligations, and may induce or propagate economic crises. Arguments in favor of sound debt management are especially compelling for small states that must mitigate the particular risks to which their economies are exposed. Against this backdrop, the paper identifies aspects of debt management where small states do relatively well and those where they perform poorly...

Most emerging markets do not borrow much internationally in their own currency, although doing that has been argued as an attractive insurance mechanism. This phenomenon, commonly labeled "the original sin", has mostly been interpreted as evidence of the countries' inability to borrow in domestic currency from abroad. This paper provides a novel explanation for that phenomenon: not that countries are unable to borrow abroad in their currency, they might not need to do so. In the model, the small prevalence of external borrowing in domestic currency arises as an equilibrium outcome, despite the absence of exogenous frictions or limits on market participation. The equilibrium outcome is driven by the fact that domestic and foreign lenders have differential consumption baskets. In particular, a large part of domestic lenders' consumption basket is denominated in domestic currency whereas all of foreign lenders' is in dollars. A depreciation of domestic currency, which tends to occur in bad times, is therefore less harmful to domestic savers than to foreign investors. This makes domestic lenders require a lower premium than foreign lenders on domestic currency debt. For plausible calibrations...

This paper explores the building blocks of an institutional framework to govern borrowing by subnational entities to finance infrastructure investment. The framework should help in achieving sustainable financing of development needs and sound management of fiscal risks. Based on international experience, the authors suggest a minimum set of indicators for monitoring fiscal and debt developments. Recognizing the different nature and operations of the subnational entities, they propose specific indicators for special purpose vehicles and the government's general budget. The paper outlines an analytical framework to inform policy decisions concerning subnational debt limits, which are country-specific and should not be mechanically applied. Basic notions underpinning medium-term macro-fiscal frameworks and debt sustainability analyses provide effective guidance for identifying prudent levels of subnational debt. The authors argue that developing fiscal and debt indicators and setting borrowing limits should be part of a broader strategy to put in place an adequate fiscal architecture to coordinate and monitor the budgetary and borrowing policies conducted by individual subnational governments. Consistent with this general principle, they explore several areas of subnational public finance and management that need to be addressed with adequate governance structures and policy choices.

Cette thèse comporte trois essais en macroéconomie en économie ouverte et commerce international. Je considère tour à tour les questions suivantes: sous quelles conditions est-il optimal pour un pays de former une union économique? (essai 1); l'augmentation de la dispersion transversale des avoirs extérieurs nets des pays est-elle compatible avec une dispersion relativement stable des taux d'investissement? (essai 2); le risque de perte de marché à l'exportation du fait de l'existence des zones de commerce préférentiel joue t-il un rôle dans la décision des pays exclus de négocier des accords commerciaux à leur tour? (essai 3). Le premier essai examine les conditions d'optimalité d'une union économique. Il s'intéresse à une motivation particulière: le partage du risque lié aux fluctuations du revenu. Dans la situation initiale, les pays ont très peu d'opportunités pour partager le risque à cause des frictions: les marchés financiers internationaux sont incomplets et il n'y pas de mécanisme pour faire respecter les contrats de crédit entre pays. Dans ce contexte, une union économique apparait comme un arrangement qui pallie à ces frictions entre les pays membres seulement. Cependant, l'union dans son ensemble continue de faire face à ces frictions lorsqu'elle échange avec le reste du monde. L'arbitrage clé dans le modèle est le suivant. D'un coté...

Incomplete markets and non-default borrowing constraints increase the volatility of pricing kernels and are helpful when addressing assetpricing puzzles. However, ruling out default when markets are in complete is suboptimal. This paper endogenizes borrowing constraints as an intertemporal incentive structure to default. It mo deIs an infinitehorizon economy, where agents are allowed not to pay their liabilities and face borrowing constraints that depend on the individual history of default. Those constraints trade off the economy's risk-sharing possibilities and incentives to prevent default. The equilibrium presents stationary properties, such as an invariant distribution for the assets' solvency rate.