O presente trabalho teve por objetivo modelar as séries de concessão de crédito bancário às pessoas físicas, às pessoas jurídicas e para financiamento de atividades rurais, bem como realizar previsões a cerca dos comportamentos destas séries. A metodologia utilizada foi de Auto- Regressão Vetorial. A propriedade de co-integração entre as variáveis foi considerada no trabalho, sendo que foram estimados modelos de Auto-Regressão Vetorial com Correção de Erro – VEC. Os resultados mostram que o produto, a taxa de juros cobrada nos empréstimos, as exportações e as vendas no varejo podem auxiliar na geração de previsões satisfatórias das concessões de crédito às pessoas jurídicas e às pessoas físicas. Para o modelo de previsão das concessões de crédito para financiamento de atividades rurais, utilizaram-se variáveis referentes à produção de fertilizantes, vendas de tratores e colheitadeiras, produção de leite e produção de carnes bovina, suínas e de aves, sendo que as previsões geradas pelo modelo apresentaram performance adequada, dada a dificuldade da modelagem.; The aim of this study was to model the series of banking credit concessions to individuals, to firms and for rural activities financing...

Nos últimos anos a sociedade brasileira tem criticado os lucros alcançados pelos bancos, por considerá-los excessivamente elevados. Tal situação tem, inclusive, incentivado medidas, por parte do governo federal, para proteger o consumidor em relação às tarifas e aos juros cobrados pelas instituições financeiras. Por sua vez, a sociedade parece enxergar o setor de forma homogênea, sem atentar para as diferenças existentes entre seus integrantes. Este estudo tem o intuito de explicitar eventuais diferenças, relativas à rentabilidade, existentes no setor, de forma a fomentar uma visão mais crítica e menos superficial do segmento bancário, podendo, eventualmente, contribuir na elaboração de políticas para o setor. Para tanto, avaliou-se a uniformidade dos resultados dos bancos em relação a origem de capital, tamanho e nível de operações de crédito, a partir de uma base de dados, que compreendeu o período entre 1996 e 2006. O intervalo de tempo total foi dividido em três partes, de 1996 a 1998, denominado 1º período; de 1999 a 2002, 2º período; e, de 2003 a 2006, 3º período. Com esta divisão é possível identificar alterações nas relações entre as categorias das variáveis de um período para outro...

Este estudo está organizado em três capítulos, independentes entre si e que possuem em comum o fato de serem trabalhos aplicados de microeconometria bancária e de utilizarem dados desagregados do Banco Central do Brasil. Os dois primeiros estão relacionados com crédito e o terceiro com os submercados de agências bancárias. Os determinantes da demanda por financiamento de automóveis é o tema central do primeiro capítulo. Usando dados da Central de Risco de Crédito do Banco Central, estima-se as elasticidades da demanda por empréstimo com respeito à taxa de juros e à duração. Os tomadores respondem tanto a uma variável quanto a outra, indicando que não somente a duração, mas a taxa de juros também é importante na decisão de financiamento de automóveis. O segundo capítulo também usa os dados da Central de Risco (na modalidade capital de giro) e trata da relação entre a taxa de juros e a garantia, e da importância do tempo de relacionamento nos contratos de crédito. As estimativas fornecem evidências de que a taxa de juros e a garantia são negativamente relacionadas, e este resultado é consistente com a literatura que dá suporte ao sorting-by-private information paradigm. Adicionalmente, um tempo de relacionamento mais longo contribui para mitigar os efeitos da assimetria informacional. No terceiro capítulo...

Esta tese trata de crédito, não da análise dos demonstrativos financeiros, e sim a partir do momento em que o resultado de uma análise criteriosa e competente é colocada à disposição do comitê para decidir pela concessão ou não do crédito. A decisão de crédito é nosso enfoque principal. A tese está dividida em quatro partes. Na primeira parte fazemos uma revisão bibliográfica sobre crédito, dos fundamentos históricos à aplicação de modelos sofisticados de administração de carteiras (o Creditmetrics), passando pelo Estado da Arte das técnicas de credit scoring. A segunda parte trata dos fundamentos da teoria da análise da decisão, onde discutimos e analisamos o comportamento político e racional nas organizações, e os principais problemas decorrentes de atitudes indesejáveis como escalation, groupthink e bandwagon. A terceira parte discorre, inicialmente, sobre a pesquisa e sua metodologia, apresentando as hipóteses a serem testadas. Na seqüência, com base em dezoito entrevistas com diretores das principais entidades bancárias do país, descrevemos o processo geral para a concessão de crédito para grandes corporações e analisamos sete casos de concessões de crédito malsucedidas. Finalmente, com uma amostra de 54 bancos...

A presente pesquisa buscou verificar se a atribuição de rating por parte dos analistas de crédito é influenciada pelo grau de evidenciação contábil das empresas fechadas brasileiras e se os problemas referentes ao disclosure e qualidade das informações contábeis das empresas fechadas no Brasil afetam a captação de recursos no mercado bancário no Brasil (principal fonte) através do aumento da percepção de risco dessas empresas. Também foi verificado se o nível de conhecimento dos analistas de crédito em contabilidade impacta o processo de avaliação de risco das empresas fechadas, bem como a percepção dos analistas de crédito em relação ao papel do contador nesse processo. A pesquisa foi direcionada a um grupo de analistas que avaliam crédito de empresas fechadas, ou seja, sem obrigatoriedade de divulgação das demonstrações contábeis com faturamento entre R$ 300 milhões e R$ 1 bilhão (usualmente categorizada pelos bancos como carteira Corporate). Através da aplicação de um questionário a uma amostra intencional de analistas contendo assertivas baseadas na Escala Likert, foi possível coletar dados relativos à percepção e atitude de 64 analistas de crédito com variados níveis de experiência em avaliação de crédito. Esses dados foram analisados utilizando-se a estatística descritiva e cluster. Dentre os resultados da estatística descritiva...

Esta pesquisa examina a relação entre a adoção do padrão contábil internacional pelas pequenas e médias empresas no Brasil com o custo de crédito concedido pelas instituições financeiras. A literatura teórica discute a regulação contábil como resposta à existência de ambientes com assimetria informacional, e a Teoria da Divulgação estuda o fenômeno da evidenciação contábil, sob o ponto de vista de suas causas e efeitos. O IASB, entre outras razões, propõe um padrão contábil com maior qualidade de informações em razão de ele reduzir o custo de captação de empresas de menor porte. Desse modo, o presente trabalho teve como objetivo principal investigar se adoção do padrão contábil internacional provocou efeito no custo de crédito bancário. A investigação foi conduzida por uma abordagem teórico-empírica, suportada por avaliações qualitativas, associadas a técnicas quantitativas. As análises estatísticas envolveram uma amostra de 179 empresas, em que foram realizadas análises descritivas, testes de médias amostrais e análise de dados em painel, com dados de demonstrações contábeis referentes a três anos (2009 a 2011). Para mensurar o nível de qualidade das informações contábeis, utilizou-se de índice de disclosure formado com base nas demonstrações contábeis das empresas da amostra e verificação de evidenciação do padrão contábil com base no CPC. Foram obtidas evidências de relações estatisticamente significativas entre as medidas de qualidade da informação contábil (disclosure e evidenciação da adoção do padrão contábil baseado no CPC) e o custo de crédito bancário dessas empresas. No entanto...

In this paper, we analyse the link between the macroeconomic developments and the banking credit risk in a particular group of countries – Greece, Ireland, Portugal, Spain and Italy (GIPSI) – recently affected by unfavourable economic and financial conditions and to which, on this matter, the literature has not given a particular attention yet. Employing dynamic panel data approaches to these five countries over the period 1997q1-2011q3, we conclude that the banking credit risk is significantly affected by the macroeconomic environment: the credit risk increases when GDP growth and the share price indices decrease and rises when the unemployment rate, interest rate, and credit growth increase; it is also positively affected by an appreciation of the real exchange rate; moreover, we observe a substantial increase in the credit risk during the recent financial crisis period. Several robustness tests with different estimators have also confirmed these results.; Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia (FCT); CEMPRE; QREN; FEDER

This article aims to analyse the evolution of the corporate banking credit market in Brazil during the recent cycle (january 2003 to june 2009) from a Keynesian theoretical reference point. The article focuses on the dynamics of the six major segments of this market (industry, commerce, services, infrastructure, real estate and rural sector), highlighting their main similarities and differences concerning the cyclical dynamics, the participation in the total corporate banking credit, the origin of resources, the composition of capital ownership and the performance of public and private banks.

The Czech Republic had experienced a credit boom similar to those in other converging economies in the pre-crisis years. Nevertheless, the consequences of this credit boom were limited as was the impact of the global crisis on domestic financial institutions. This paper describes the developments in the Czech banking sector and explains how the tough macroeconomic environment in the Czech Republic acted as a strong tool of macroprudential policy. It concludes that although it is difficult to tame credit booms in small converging economies, a concerted set of microprudential and macroprudential measures, including monetary and fiscal ones, may ensure some success.

The objective of this paper is to analyze the industry structure of banking services in Brazil in order to shed light on financial performance and its drivers at a disaggregated level. The study illustrates how differences across market segments - which tend to be averaged out in aggregate analysis - need to be taken into account when analyzing performance and designing public policy for the banking sector. In particular, retail banking is found to be less sensitive to price competition and to exhibit considerably higher returns than corporate banking. The authors identify and discuss the factors underlying revenues, costs, and risks in each market segment, and conclude with policy implications.

While the theoretical and empirical finance literature has focused almost exclusively on enterprise credit, about half of credit extended by banks to the private sector in a sample of 45 developing and developed countries is to households. The share of household credit in total credit increases as countries grow richer and financial systems develop. Cross-country regressions, however, suggest a positive and significant impact on gross domestic product per capita growth only of enterprise but not household credit. These two findings together partly explain why previous studies have found a small or insignificant effect of finance on growth in high-income countries. In addition, countries with a lower share of manufacturing, a higher degree of urbanization, and more market-oriented financial systems have a higher share of household credit. It is thus mostly socio-economic trends that determine credit composition, while policies influencing banking market structure and regulatory policies are not robustly related to credit composition.

This paper examines the impact of the recent banking crises in Europe and Central Asia with an emphasis on household income and consumption patterns. The analysis is based on the 2010 wave of the Life in Transition Survey, which covers 12,704 households in eleven countries that experienced a banking crisis between 2008 and 2011. It finds that households in middle-income crisis countries are more than twice as likely to be hit by an income shock as households in high-income crisis countries. The labor market channel is the predominant source of income shocks, with wage reductions more widespread than job-losses. In reaction to income shocks, households reallocate spending from non-essential goods to staple foods. Reductions in staple-food consumption are, however, prevalent among low-income households. The paper examines potential crisis mitigators and finds that at the macro level a flexible monetary regime is associated with fewer cutbacks in household consumption. At the meso level, it finds no evidence that foreign bank ownership amplified the transmission of banking crises to households in Europe. With respect to micro-level mitigators, the analysis finds that diversified income sources as well as stocks of non-financial and financial assets help households to cushion income shocks. Access to informal and formal credit also mitigates the impact of income shocks on household consumption...

This paper takes stock of the current state of banking systems across Sub-Saharan Africa and discusses recent developments including innovations that might help Africa leapfrog more traditional banking models. Using an array of different data, the paper documents that African banking systems are shallow but stable. African banks are well capitalized and over-liquid, but lend less to the private sector than banks in non-African developing countries. African enterprises and households are less likely to use financial services than their peers in other developing countries. The paper also describes a number of financial innovations across the continent that can help overcome different barriers to financial inclusion and have helped to expand the bankable and the banked population.

The general principles for credit reporting were issued by the World Bank in September 2011. Since then, the World Bank and the international committee on credit reporting (ICCR) have been leading efforts towards the implementation of the general principles worldwide. This report is one of the concrete outputs of the work following the general principles. It addresses one of the most significant problems that limit the ability of most small and medium enterprises (SMEs) around the world to obtain adequate external financing to underpin their productive activities: information asymmetries. Creditors assess the creditworthiness of credit and loan applicants based on two basic criteria: ones financial capacity or ability to repay a loan, and ones willingness to repay the loan. A credit reporting system s (CRS) basic objective is to address information asymmetries, which is crucial for determining repayment capacity and repayment willingness. Credit reporting can therefore be extremely valuable to creditors for enhanced...

This paper is about the importance of the information in Public Credit Registries (PCRs) for supporting and improving banking sector regulation and supervision, particularly in the light of the new approach embodied in Basel III. Against the backdrop of the financial crisis and the existence of information data gaps, the importance of complete, accurate and timely credit information in the financial system is evident. Both in normal times and during crises, authorities need a device that allows them to look at the universe of credits in a detailed and readily way. And more importantly, they need to develop tools that exploit as much as possible the information therein contained. PCR databases contain individual credit information on borrowers and their credits which makes it possible to implement advanced techniques that measure banks' credit risk exposure. It allows optimizing the prudential regulation ensuring that provisioning and capital requirements are properly calibrated to cover expected and unexpected losses respectively. It also permits validating banks' internal rating systems...

Banking the Poor presents new data collected from two sources: central banks, and leading commercial banks in each surveyed country. It explores associations between countries' banking policies and practices, and their levels of financial access measured in terms of the numbers of bank accounts per thousand adults. It builds on the previous work of measuring financial access through information obtained from regulators, banks, and household surveys. It explores associations between countries' banking policies and practices, and their levels of financial access, measured in terms of the numbers of bank accounts per thousand adults. The extent to which people are banked depends primarily on how wealthy they are. Even in the poorest countries, rich urban customers get access to good banking. Although there are a range of financial services used by the poorest, these are usually provided outside the formal banking system. Banks are used by those above this threshold, usually by salaried employees who have the steady income. Naturally banks are more likely to seek out users with a steady, predicatable income. Expanding credit for enterprises leads to the creation of a salaried class that wants to bank: this is the primary way to increase bank access. While bank clients make up the largest part of those using financial services in most countries...

This dissertation investigates agency problems within risk transfer contracts. We pay particular attention to the consequences of credit risk transfer in the context of banking. The first two chapters provide an introduction and literature review. We then analyze the effect of counterparty risk on financial insurance contracts in the following two chapters, and uncover a new moral hazard problem on the part of the insurer. If the insurer believes it is unlikely that a claim will be made, it is advantageous for them to invest in assets which earn higher returns, but may not be readily available if needed. We find that counterparty risk can create an incentive for the insured to reveal superior information about the risk of their "investment". In particular, a unique separating equilibrium may exist even in the absence of any signalling device. This constitutes a first example in which the separation of types can be achieved without a costly signalling device. Our research suggests that regulators should be wary of risk being offloaded to other, possibly unstable parties, especially in financial markets such as that of credit derivatives. The fifth chapter models loan sales and loan insurance (e.g. credit default swaps) as two key instruments of risk transfer within the banking environment. Recent empirical evidence suggests that the asymmetric information problem is as relevant in loan insurance as it is in loan sales. Contrary to previous literature...

This study contributes to the understanding of the causality between banking credit and economic activity in the Metropolitan Region of São Paulo (MRSP). Questions have been raised as to the prevailing Granger-causality for national economies, and a local approach that has not yet been followed in the empirical literature is pursued here. It is dealt with the relationship between several banking credit modalities and an indicator of economic activity in the MRSP from January 1992 to December 2003, with a bivariate Autoregressive Vector model having found a birectional causality.; Este artigo contribui para o entendimento da causalidade entre crédito bancário e atividade econômica na Região Metropolitana de São Paulo (RMSP). Questões têm sido levantadas quanto à direção da causalidade, à Granger, prevalecente em economias nacionais, e uma ênfase local ainda não contemplada na literatura é dada aqui. Analisa-se a relação entre diferentes modalidades de crédito bancário e um indicador de atividade econômica na RMSP entre janeiro de 1992 e dezembro de 2003, com um modelo de Vetores Auto-regressivos bivariado tendo detectado uma causalidade bidirecional.

This article discusses the impacts of the international crisis on the Brazilian economy, with emphasis on the virtual paralysis of the domestic banking credit market that has occurred since September 2008. It argues that the dynamics of banking competition led to the emergence of high-risk practices. The destabilizing potential of these practices came to light when the aggravation of the international financial crisis and its contagion in peripheral countries such as Brazil caused a reversal of expectations. Generalized conservative behavior by banks during the retraction phase was exacerbated in Brazil by the relatively short credit cycle and by the liquidity, profitability and low-risk of public bonds, allowing a rapid recomposition of portfolios. The Central Bank, sticking to its mandate as the guardian of price stability, failed to move to mitigate the deceleration of productive activities that resulted from the contraction of credit.; O artigo procura discutir os impactos da crise internacional na economia brasileira, com ênfase na virtual paralisia do mercado de crédito bancário doméstico a partir de setembro de 2008. Sustenta-se que a dinâmica concorrencial bancária conduziu à emergência de práticas de alto risco, cujo potencial desestabilizador veio à tona quando da reversão das expectativas ante o agravamento da crise financeira internacional e seus efeitos-contágio sobre as economias periferias...

This research study focuses upon Credit Cards and a proposed verification method to reduce the risk of fraudulent use. It is anticipated that the proliferation and growing use of credit cards will require the use of security concepts offering built-in point of use protection that is automatic and reliable. A suggested concept is the use of a combined electronic credit card and a memory device. The proposed verification technique combines a user electronic credit card and memory number along with a simple imprinter which would be operated by the person accepting the credit card. Credit cards have become a widely accepted instrument of credit in the United States, and are a prime mover in the trend toward a "cashless society". It is estimated that there are 300 million cards in use today; growing at a rate of about 20 percent per year. Their increased usage and acceptance portends considerable change in credit instruments of many segments of the business world. It is also anticipated that the problem of theft and unauthorized use will increase in proportion equal to or greater than the card growth. Thus, credit card user verification will become a most important factor in the trend toward a cashless society. In anticipation of the credit card user verification problem...