Climate change is believed to represent a serious challenge to poverty reduction efforts around the globe. This paper conducts an up-to-date review of three main strands of the literature analyzing the poverty impacts of climate change : (i) economy-wide growth models incorporating climate change impacts to work out consistent scenarios for how climate change might affect the path of poverty over the next decades; (ii) studies focusing on the poverty impacts of climate change in the agricultural sector; and (iii) studies exploring how past climate variability impacts poverty. The analysis finds that the majority of the estimates of the poverty impacts tend to ignore the effect of aggregate economic growth on poverty and household welfare. The empirical evidence available to date suggests that climate change will slow the pace of global poverty reduction, but the expected poverty impact will be relatively modest and far from reversing the major decline in poverty that is expected to occur over the next 40 years as a result of continued economic growth. The studies focusing on the sector-specific channels of impacts of climate change suggest that the estimated impacts of climate change on agricultural yields are generally a poor predictor of the poverty impacts of climate change at the national level due to heterogeneity in the ability of households to adapt. It also appears that the impacts of climate change are generally regressive...

This report, Building Response Strategies to Climate Change in Agricultural Systems in Latin America, reports the results of action research to identify and prioritize stakeholder driven, locally relevant response options to climate change in Latin American agriculture. The study has three primary objectives. The first is to develop and apply a pilot methodology for assessing agricultural vulnerability to climate change and for formulating adaptation response strategies to inform private and public sector decisions in the Latin America region. The study is principally concerned with adaptation responses to climate change, rather than mitigation. The second objective is to formulate recommendations for investments in each of the selected agro-ecosystems in a range of areas including agricultural technology adaptation, infrastructure investments, public and private sector support activities, and institutional and policy changes. The final objective is to disseminate the study results in the Latin America region and other parts of the world to help increase understanding of the impacts of climate change and alternative adaptation response strategies. This methodology can be used by the Bank to support client countries in defining response strategies...

The report is part of a broader study, the Economics of Adaptation to Climate Change (EACC), which has two objectives: (a) to develop a global estimate of adaptation costs for informing international climate negotiations; and (b) to help decision makers in developing countries assess the risks posed by climate change and design national strategies for adapting to it. This paper is one of a series of country-level studies, where national data were disaggregated to more local and sector levels, helping to understand adaptation from a bottom-up perspective. Ethiopia is heavily dependent on rainfed agriculture. Its geographical location and topography in combination with low adaptive capacity entail a high vulnerability to the impacts of climate change. Historically the country has been prone to extreme weather variability. Rainfall is highly erratic, most rain falls with high intensity, and there is a high degree of variability in both time and space. Since the early 1980s, the country has suffered seven major droughts five of which have led to famines in addition to dozens of local droughts. Major floods also occurred in different parts of the country in 1988...

The Economics of Adaptation to Climate Change (EACC) study estimates that it will cost $75 - $100 billion each year for developing countries to adapt to climate change from 2010 to 2050 (World Bank 2009a). The study funded by the governments of the Netherlands, United Kingdom, and Switzerland has two specific objectives. The first is to develop a global estimate of adaptation coststo inform the international community s efforts on how to tailor adequate and sustainable support regarding new and additional resources to help vulnerable developing countries meet adaptation costs. The second objective is to support decision makers in developing countries to better evaluate and assess the risks posed by climate change and to better design strategies to adapt to climate change. The EACC study includes a global track to meet the first study objective and a case study track to meet the second objective. The country track comprises seven countries: Ethiopia, Mozambique, Ghana, Bangladesh, Vietnam, The Plurinational State of Bolivia...

The report is organized as follows. The next section puts the study into context by briefly discussing the global EACC study and the EACC methodology, which was applied in this study at a more disaggregated level. The section highlights the differential impacts of climate change among different regions of the world, including Africa. Chapter three presents an overview of the methodology used, including the key assumptions. An effort has been made to present this information in nontechnical language where possible. The more technical aspects of the study can be found in the annexes. The sector results are contained in chapter four. The chapter begins with an overview of the Ghanaian economy, followed by the climate projections for Ghana and the overall economic impacts. Next, the results for each sector are presented in three parts: climate change impacts, the adaptation options, and the adaptation costs. The final chapter concludes with a summary and policy implications.

Philippines currently experience and will continue to face significant impacts from climate change. To ensure climate resilience, build a low-carbon economy, and increase its role in the global climate change dialogue, the Philippine government has launched strong climate policy and institutional and financing reforms, supported by a clear rationale for no-regrets action. However, transformative progress toward a more climate resilient society and low carbon economy remains limited. Carried out at mid-term of the first phase of the National Climate Change Action Plan (NCCAP), the Philippine Development Plan (2011-2016) and the current Administration, this review is an opportunity, and comes early enough, to ensure that first phase reforms are finalized and the groundwork for the second and third phases put in place. Recommendations consolidate the strategic direction of the NCCAP and set the stage for scaling up action over the next two phases. Specific activities are proposed to support eight objectives organized around three pillars: (i) strengthening the planning...

The Africa energy unit (AFTEG) of the World Bank has obtained financing from the trust fund for environmentally and socially sustainable development (TFESSD) funded by Finland and Norway for work towards understanding the impact of climate change on hydropower: the case of Cameroon. The development objective of this activity is: (i) to develop tools for assessing climate change impacts on the operation of hydraulic infrastructure such as regulating dams and hydropower plants in the Sanaga river basin, and (ii) to take steps towards an institutional framework for climate resilient water resources management in Cameroon. The aim of this initiative is to build resilience to climate risks into water management in general and hydropower development in Cameroon in particular. The study includes three components: (i) develop suitable climate change scenarios for the Sanaga basin, support the electricity development corporation (EDC) of Cameroon to develop a reliable hydrological model for the Sanaga river basin...

Indigenous peoples across Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) already perceive and experience negative effects of climate change and variability. Although the overall economic impact of climate change on gross domestic product (GDP) is significant, what is particularly problematic is that it falls disproportionately on the poor including indigenous peoples, who constitute about 6.5 percent of the population in the region and are among its poorest and most vulnerable (Hall and Patrinos 2006). This book examines the social implications of climate change and climatic variability for indigenous communities in LAC and the options for improving their resilience and adaptability to these phenomena. By social implications, the authors mean direct and indirect effects in the broad sense of the word social, including factors contributing to human well-being, health, livelihoods, human agency, social organization, and social justice. This book, much of which relies on new empirical research, addresses specifically the situation of indigenous communities because our research showed them to be among the most vulnerable to the effects of climate change. A companion book (Verner 2010) provides information on the broader social dimensions of climate change in LAC and on policy options for addressing them. This book will help to place these impacts higher on the climate-change agenda and guide efforts to enhance indigenous peoples' rights and opportunities...

This report evaluates the requirements for an assessment of climate change impacts on agriculture to guide policy makers on investment priorities and phasing. Because agriculture is vital for national food security and is a strong contributor to Brazil's GDP growth, there is growing concern that Brazilian agriculture is increasingly vulnerable to climate variability and change. To meet national development, food security, climate adaptation and mitigation, and trade goals over the next several decades, Brazil will need to significantly increase per area productivity of food and pasture systems while simultaneously reducing deforestation, rehabilitating millions of hectares of degraded land, and adapting to climate change. There is inadequate data to accurately model projected climate challenges facing Brazil. The report concludes that key integrated and linked interventions are needed in the short term to significantly improve currently available assessments of climate change impact on Brazilian agriculture and to guide policy makers with the priorities and phasing of needed investments.

This report evaluates the requirements for an assessment of climate change impacts on agriculture to guide policy makers on investment priorities and phasing. Because agriculture is vital for national food security and is a strong contributor to Brazil's GDP growth, there is growing concern that Brazilian agriculture is increasingly vulnerable to climate variability and change. To meet national development, food security, climate adaptation and mitigation, and trade goals over the next several decades, Brazil will need to significantly increase per area productivity of food and pasture systems while simultaneously reducing deforestation, rehabilitating millions of hectares of degraded land, and adapting to climate change. There is inadequate data to accurately model projected climate challenges facing Brazil. The report concludes that key integrated and linked interventions are needed in the short term to significantly improve currently available assessments of climate change impact on Brazilian agriculture and to guide policy makers with the priorities and phasing of needed investments.

This Economics of Climate Change in the Arab World is presents detailed case studies on the impacts of climate change in the Syrian Arab Republic, Tunisia, and the Republic of Yemen that were summarized. The Arab region is already being impacted by climate change through more frequent cyclones, floods, and prolonged droughts. Thousands of rural producers have seen their crops and herds devastated by extreme conditions, and have been forced to abandon their traditional way of life and migrate to crowded urban areas. Those who stay behind in rural areas struggle to cope with shortages of food and water. Climate change affects countries' economies and households through a variety of channels. Rising temperatures and changes in rainfall patterns affect agricultural yields of both rainfed and irrigated crops, and thus global and local food markets. Adaptation is a process that will take place over decades as new information makes policy makers reevaluate their climate vulnerabilities. Still, by seizing the opportunity to act now and act together...

The framework provided a road map for climate action for the World Bank Group (WBG) over fiscal years 2009-11, setting out the WBG's objectives, principles, areas of focus, and major initiatives in the field of climate change. The framework was organized around six action areas: 1) supporting climate actions in country-led development processes; 2) mobilizing additional concessional and innovative finance; 3) facilitating the development of market-based financing mechanisms; 4) leveraging private sector resources; 5) supporting accelerated development and deployment of new technologies; and 6) stepping up policy research, knowledge, and capacity building. Climate change is one of the multiple stressors that affect the environment and impact on income and welfare. Further, its impact is worsened by other environmental damages. Looking ahead, strategies to combat climate change have to account for the continued need for rapid growth in developing countries. In this context, the World Bank is now looking at climate change in a holistic manner...

Like other regions, Eastern Europe and Central Asia is vulnerable to climate change and its potential socioeconomic impacts. While all countries are facing warmer temperatures, a changing hydrology, and more extreme events (for example, floods and droughts) and are concerned about the level of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, they differ in their financial and institutional capacities to respond. Therefore, especially for the most vulnerable countries in the region (for example, those in Central Asia and southern Europe), adapting to climate risk adds a new dimension to the challenges of development, but also provides an opportunity to revisit priorities and accelerate reforms. The Europe and Central Asia (ECA) Region of the World Bank has been actively working on climate-related projects and has advanced a number of initiatives in response to climate change since the 1990s. Nevertheless, up until a few years ago the region's focus was mainly on emissions reduction (mitigation), rather than on helping countries respond to existing or expected impacts from climate change through adjustments in natural or human systems. But more recently...

Financing projects and programs to mitigate impacts of, and adapt to, the climate change is a matter of necessity not choice. This green expenditure policy note looks at factors facilitating the access to international financial instruments for Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) countries that support mitigation of and adaptation to climate change. This policy note explores two questions: (i) does the quality of government institutions matter for enabling action aimed at mitigation or adaptation to the climate change?; and (ii) what financial instruments are available to governments in addition to own resources to address climate change challenges? This policy note aims to present them with advice on how to achieve greater access to international financing or co-financing of projects supporting renewable and alternative energy generation for transport, agriculture, housing, preservation of unique ecosystems, and other projects supporting sustainable development. This policy note describes the climate challenges facing the LAC region and then discusses the various climate financing flows. It discusses the factors affecting LAC countries' access to climate financing...

The objective of this economic sector work (ESW) is to address these gaps by piloting a methodology capable of quickly and cost-effectively introducing into adaptation planning processes an appreciation of the significance of climate change impacts for poor people in informal urban settlements. Specifically in the two case study sites (Mombasa in Kenya and Esteli in Nicaragua) sought to: a) make visible climate change impacts of various kinds on poor people; b) illustrate what poor households, small businesses and groups in communities are doing to cope with such climate change impacts (experienced as increasingly variable and capricious weather patterns); and c) identify how policy and institutional systems can best build on local realities to develop pro-poor urban climate change adaptation actions, particularly relating to resilience. The report introduces an asset-based framework to analyze the vulnerability of urban poor people to severe weather events whose frequency or intensity climate change may be increasing...

Climate change is widely acknowledged as foremost among the formidable challenges facing the international community in the 21st century. It poses challenges to fundamental elements of our understanding of appropriate goals for social and economic policy, such as the connection of prosperity, growth, equity, and sustainable development. This volume seeks to establish an agenda for research and action built on an enhanced understanding of the relationship between climate change and the key social dimensions of vulnerability, social justice, and equity. The volume is organized as follows. This introductory chapter first sets the scene by framing climate change as an issue of social justice at multiple levels, and by highlighting equity and vulnerability as the central organizing themes of an agenda on the social dimensions of climate change. Chapter two leads off with a review of existing theories and frameworks for understanding vulnerability, drawing out implications for pro-poor climate policy. Understanding the multilayered causal structure of vulnerability then can assist in identifying entry points for pro-poor climate policy at multiple levels. Building on such analytical approaches...

Within any economy, agriculture is the sector that is most sensitive to climate change. In Armenia, however, the risks are even more pronounced because the majority of the rural population depends on agriculture for their livelihoods. This publication outlines the policy options available to Armenia, based on a rigorous evaluation of the impacts of climate change on agricultural systems. It provides a solid foundation for taking strategic and, in many cases, immediate action to implement climate-smart agriculture in the country. Specifically, this report provides a menu of options for climate change adaptation in the agricultural and water resources sectors, along with specific recommended actions that are tailored to distinct agricultural regions within Armenia. These recommendations reflect the results of three inter-related activities, conducted jointly by the expert team and local partners: (1) quantitative economic modeling of baseline conditions and the effects of certain adaptation options; (2) qualitative analysis conducted by the expert team of agronomists...

The climate is changing, and the Eastern Europe and Central Asia (ECA) region is vulnerable to the consequences. Many of the region's countries are facing warmer temperatures, a changing hydrology, and more extremes, droughts, floods, heat waves, windstorms, and forest fires. This book presents an overview of what adaptation to climate change might mean for Eastern Europe and Central Asia. It starts with a discussion of emerging best-practice adaptation planning around the world and a review of the latest climate projections. It then discusses possible actions to improve resilience organized around impacts on health, natural resources (water, biodiversity, and the coastal environment), the 'unbuilt' environment (agriculture and forestry), and the built environment (infrastructure and housing). The last chapter concludes with a discussion of two areas in great need of strengthening given the changing climate: disaster preparedness and hydro-meteorological services. This book has four key messages: a) contrary to popular perception...

This paper constitutes the third and final volume of a series of assessments of the World Bank Group's engagement with climate change issues. The first focused on World Bank involvement in policy issues related to greenhouse gas mitigation. It was mainly concerned with the potential for energy price reform and energy efficiency policies to yield dividends in growth, fiscal savings, and climate change mitigation. The second volume examined project-level lessons related to greenhouse gas mitigation. This volume draws lessons from World Bank and International Finance Corporation (IFC) engagement in climate change adaptation. Like its predecessors, but to an even greater extent, this evaluation has a strong focus on learning, as the Bank Group explores a newly defined agenda. Climate change adaptation has only recently captured widespread policy attention. In strong contrast to climate mitigation, whose progress can be tracked along a single global metric (the atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases), adaptation takes many forms, is intensely local, and resists easy definition and measurement. To a much greater extent even than climate change mitigation, adaptation is intertwined with development. Thus this evaluation looks not only at activities explicitly labeled 'climate adaptation' but also at a selection of those that might be expected to be adaptive...

In countries such as Georgia, the risks of climate change for the agricultural sector are a particularly immediate and important problem because the majority of the rural population depends either directly or indirectly on agriculture for their livelihoods. The most effective plans for adapting the sector to climate change will involve both human capital and physical capital enhancements; however, many of these investments can also enhance agricultural productivity right now, under current climate conditions. Recommendations, such as improving the accessibility to farmers of agriculturally relevant weather forecasts, will yield benefits as soon as they are implemented and provide a means for farmers to autonomously adapt their practices as climate changes. In response to these challenges, the World Bank and the Government of Georgia embarked on a joint study to identify and prioritize options for climate change adaptation of the agricultural sector, with explicit consideration of greenhouse gas emission reduction potential of these options. The study was conducted in three stages: awareness raising; quantitative and qualitative analysis; and finalization of the analysis and menu of adaptation options. This report provides a menu of options for climate change adaptation in the agricultural and water resources sectors...