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‣ Programas de estabilização e o consumo de bens duráveis; Stabilization plans and durable goods consumption

Jardim, Eduardo Ferreira
Fonte: Biblioteca Digitais de Teses e Dissertações da USP Publicador: Biblioteca Digitais de Teses e Dissertações da USP
Tipo: Dissertação de Mestrado Formato: application/pdf
Publicado em 22/07/2010 Português
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Este trabalho desenvolve um modelo para explicar a expansão de consumo que freqüentemente sucede planos de estabilização baseados em congelamento de preços ou câmbio. A perspectiva adotada centra no consumo de bens duráveis e na dificuldade dos domicílios de proteger seus ativos da inflação. Uma redução repentina da inflação leva a uma queda do preço efetivo do bem de consumo durável, o que gera a expansão de consumo. O modelo é calibrado para o Brasil do período do plano Cruzado e são realizadas simulações supondo uma estabilização de preços permanente, uma com duração de 10 meses e outra de 3 meses. As duas primeiras apresentam uma expansão próxima, mas superior ao observado nos dados. A terceira simulação, porém, mostra uma expansão em torno de um quarto do observado. Também são discutidas variações no tempo médio de poupança para aquisição do bem durável e no consumo de bens não-duráveis.; This thesis presents a model to explain consumption booms after inflation stabilization plans centered on price and exchange rate controls. The focus is directed to durable goods and the difficulty for households to protect themselves from inflation. A sudden decrease in the inflation rate reduces durable goods effective price of consumption...

‣ Quality differentiation of durable goods in secondary markets

Saito,Richard
Fonte: Fundação Getúlio Vargas Publicador: Fundação Getúlio Vargas
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica Formato: text/html
Publicado em 01/06/2003 Português
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This paper presents a framework to study how changes in exogenous parameters, such as quality levels of new and used durables, affect the composition of durable good stocks. Our model extends the previous literature by including the endogeneity of prices and qualities. Our results could be applied to evaluate policies for controlling the externality level associated with the use and quality of durable goods in the long-term. We studied the characterization of the demand under a special situation: the consumer can choose the operation and/or maintenance level in the period the durable goods are new, which determines the quality levels for the subsequent periods. Comparative statics is performed to analyze the effects of exogenous variable change on the composition of durable stocks, and thus its impact on the externality level associated with each quality level. Contrary to most expectations, we provide an example in which the regulator imposes stricter quality standards for new durables to decrease negative externality associated with the use of durables. In this example, the comparative static results show that policies focusing only on new durable externality control may turn out to increase total externality, since stocks of older vintages may increase.

‣ Financial Literacy and the Financial Crisis

Klapper, Leora; Lusardi, Annamaria; Panos, Georgios A.
Fonte: Banco Mundial Publicador: Banco Mundial
Português
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The ability of consumers to make informed financial decisions improves their chances of having sound personal finance. This paper uses a panel dataset from Russia, where consumer loans grew at an astounding rate -- from about US$10 billion in 2003 to over US$170 billion in 2008 -- to examine the importance of financial literacy and its relationship with behavior. The survey asked questions on financial literacy, consumer borrowing (formal and informal), and spending behavior. The paper studies the consequences of greater financial literacy on the use of financial products and financial planning. Even though consumer borrowing rose rapidly in Russia, only 41 percent of the survey respondents understood how interest compounding worked and only 46 percent could answer a simple question about inflation. Financial literacy is positively related to participation in financial markets and negatively related to the use of informal sources of borrowing. Individuals with higher rates of financial literacy are significantly more likely to report having more unspent income at the end of the month and higher spending capacity. The relationship between financial literacy and the availability of unspent income is more evident during the financial crisis...

‣ Measures of Investor and Consumer Confidence and Policy Actions in the Current Crisis

Dailami, Mansoor; Masson, Paul
Fonte: Banco Mundial Publicador: Banco Mundial
Português
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The current financial crisis has highlighted the danger that declines in confidence can have a self-fulfilling effect on economic activity. In this paper, the authors consider ways of measuring investor and consumer confidence, and try to explain the evolution of confidence using measures of financial volatility, investment performance, macroeconomic outcomes, and policy actions. They identify a link between investor and consumer confidence. Finally, they show that liquidity provision and easing of interest rates had only a limited effect on financial market spreads during the crisis, arguing for additional measures to address the loss of confidence. The paper focuses on the need for financial regulatory reform, and shows how the incentives to cooperate in this area are stimulated by a common shock to confidence.

‣ Does the Village Fund Matter in Thailand?

Boonperm, Jirawan; Haughton, Jonathan; Khandker, Shahidur R.
Fonte: Banco Mundial Publicador: Banco Mundial
Português
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This paper evaluates the impact of the Thailand Village and Urban Revolving Fund on household expenditure, income, and assets. The revolving fund was launched in 2001 when the Government of Thailand promised to provide a million baht (about $22,500) to every village and urban community in Thailand as working capital for locally-run rotating credit associations. The money about $2 billion in total was quickly disbursed to locally-run committees in almost all of Thailand s 74,000 villages and more than 4,500 urban (including military) communities. By May 2005, the committees had lent a total of about $8 billion, with an average loan of $466. Using data from the Thailand Socioeconomic Surveys of 2002 and 2004, each of which surveys almost 35,000 households, the authors find that the borrowers were disproportionately poor and agricultural. A propensity score matching model finds that Fund borrowing in 2004 was associated with, on average, 1.9 percent more income, 3.3 percent more expenditure, and about 5 percent more ownership of durable goods. These results are broadly consistent with the results from instrumental variables models (where the identifying instrument was the inverse of village size)...

‣ Migrant Labor Markets and the Welfare of Rural Households in the Developing World : Evidence From China

de Brauw, Alan; Giles, John
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Português
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In this paper, the authors examine the impact of reductions in barriers to migration on the consumption of rural households in China. The authors find that increased migration from rural villages leads to significant increases in consumption per capita, and that this effect is stronger for poorer households within villages. Household income per capita and non-durable consumption per capita both increase with out-migration, and increase more for poorer households. The authors also establish a causal relationship between increased out-migration and investment in housing and durable goods assets, and these effects are also stronger for poorer households. The authors do not find robust evidence, however, to support a connection between increased migration and investment in productive activity. Instead, increased migration is associated with two significant changes for poorer households: increases both in the total labor supplied to productive activities and in the land per capita managed by the household. In examining the effect of migration...

‣ Assessing Asset Indices

Filmer, Deon; Scott, Kinnon
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Português
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This paper compares how results using various methods to construct asset indices match results using per capita expenditures. The analysis shows that inferences about inequalities in education, health care use, fertility, child mortality, as well as labor market outcomes are quite robust to the specific economic status measure used. The measures-most significantly per capita expenditures versus the class of asset indices-do not, however, yield identical household rankings. Two factors stand out in predicting the degree of congruence in rankings between per capita expenditures and an asset index. First is the extent to which per capita expenditures can be explained by observed household and community characteristics. In settings with small transitory shocks to expenditure, or with little measurement error in expenditure, the rankings yielded by the alternative approaches are most similar. Second is the extent to which expenditures are dominated by individually consumed goods such as food. Asset indices are typically derived from indicators of goods which are effectively public at the household level...

‣ Croatia - Living Standards Assessment : Volume 2. Promoting Social Inclusion and Regional Equity

World Bank
Fonte: Washington, DC Publicador: Washington, DC
Português
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The paper describes the main methodological issues underlying the estimation of poverty rates for Croatia. Volume one focuses on the construction of the consumption aggregate as a summary measure of living standards which is the summary measure used to proxy living standards. Special attention is devoted to the estimation of the consumption flow from durable goods. Volume two focuses on the estimation of the (absolute) poverty line. Both elements are at the core of the poverty measurement exercises carried out in two companion papers in this volume. This paper is organized into three sections with the first dealing with the construction of the consumption aggregate. The second section describes the choice of the equivalence scale used to adjust the consumption aggregate for differences in household composition, and the third section details the procedure used to estimate the poverty line.

‣ Innocent Bystanders : How Foreign Uncertainty Shocks Harm Exporters

Taglioni, Daria; Zavacka, Veronika
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Português
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The failure of trade economists to anticipate the extreme drop in trade post Lehman Brothers bankruptcy suggests that the behavior of trade in exceptional circumstances may still be poorly understood. This paper explores whether uncertainty shocks have explanatory power for movements in trade. VAR estimations on United States data suggest that domestic uncertainty is a strong predictor of movements in imports, but has little effect on exports. Guided by these results, the paper estimates a bilateral model with focus on the impact of importer uncertainty on foreign suppliers. It finds that there is a strong negative relationship between uncertainty and trade and that this relationship is non-linear. Uncertainty matters most when its levels are exceptionally high. The paper does not find evidence of learning from past turmoils, suggesting that prior experience with major uncertainty shocks does not reduce the effect on trade. In line with the expectations, the negative effect of uncertainty shocks on trade is higher for trade relationships more intensive in durable goods. Surprisingly...

‣ Croatia : Diagnostic Review of Consumer Protection and Financial Literacy, Volume 1. Key Findings and Recommendations

World Bank
Fonte: Washington, DC Publicador: Washington, DC
Português
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As financial markets develop and deepen, one of the key issues for a fair, open and efficient market is effective consumer protection and financial literacy. The European Union takes the approach that an effective regime of financial consumer protection should allow consumers to have access to: sufficient information to make informed decisions about their financial choices; cost-effective recourse mechanisms to redress violations of financial service contracts; and programs of consumer education and financial literacy that empower them to understand their financial rights and obligations. This review has found that the quality of consumer protection in financial services in Croatia has improved in recent years. In particular, the approval of the 2007 Consumer Protection Act incorporated many of the EU Directives related to financial consumer protection. In addition, the National Council on Consumer Protection was established in 2008 to advise the Government on its national strategy for consumer protection in the coming years. A nation-wide baseline survey of financial literacy would provide useful information in designing programs in financial education and consumer awareness. As pioneered in the United Kingdom...

‣ The Surprising Effects of the Great Recession : Losers and Winners in Thailand in 2008-2009

Khandker, Shahidur R.; Haughton, Jonathan
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Português
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In 2009, buffeted by the great recession, Thai gross domestic product fell by 2.3 percent. Using monthly data from the socio-economic surveys of 2007-2010, this paper finds, after controlling for household variables, that real consumption per capita rose in 2009 relative to 2008 for most groups, including the poor, urban and rural households, men, women, and children. The losers were residents of Bangkok, especially those aged 20-29, and those working in sales and services. During the recession year of 2009, school enrollment rates did not fall, and durable goods purchases actually rose; households probably reduced their savings, and also benefitted from the lower food prices that prevailed in 2009. A simulation exercise based on the slowdown in growth of gross domestic product would have missed these effects, as would models based solely on readily-available data series. This points to the importance of country-specific policy analysis, rooted in timely local evidence, including household survey data.

‣ Durable Goods and Poverty Measurement

Amendola, Nicola; Vecchi, Giovanni
Fonte: World Bank Group, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank Group, Washington, DC
Português
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The paper focuses on durable goods and their role in the measurement of living standards. The paper reviews the theoretical underpinnings of the methods available to estimate the value of the services flowing from consumer durable goods. It also provides a unified framework that encompasses the acquisition approach, the rental equivalent approach, and the user cost approach. The pros and cons of each method are discussed in the context of poverty and inequality analysis and it is argued that the user cost should receive the highest consideration.

‣ Consumer Behaviour and International Trade in the Western Mediterranean: South-Eastern Spain in a trans-national perspective (1730/1808)

PÉREZ-GARCÍA, Manuel
Fonte: Instituto Universitário Europeu Publicador: Instituto Universitário Europeu
Tipo: Tese de Doutorado Formato: application/pdf; digital
Português
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How to focus the analysis of the birth of mass consumption society has been a scholarly obsession over the last few decades. This thesis suggests that an analytical approach must be taken in studies on consumption paying special attention to the socio-cultural and economic transfers which occur when different commodities are introduced to territories with diverse socio-cultural values and identities. Therefore one of the key questions of such an analysis is to examine the role of merchants, who have a very important influence on consumer decisions. This thesis describes the new necessities created by merchants, as “vicarious consumers”, inserted in local, national and international market circuits in the Western Mediterranean area. The increase in the consumption of new goods during the eighteenth century in south-eastern Spain, especially during the second half of the century, entailed changes in household economies through some improvements in everyday life. The systematic analysis of probate inventories demonstrates potential shifts in the consumption of new durable and semi-durable goods in urban and rural families. Certainly, in south-eastern Spain, there was an interest in consuming new, exotic and foreign goods. The desires...

‣ Optimal replacement: An extension to consumer durables

Whipple, David Richard; Terasawa, Katsuaki
Fonte: Monterey, California. Naval Postgraduate School Publicador: Monterey, California. Naval Postgraduate School
Tipo: Relatório
Português
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The problem of determining the optimal procedure for the replacement of capital or military equipment has been the subject of numerous studies. However, having been conceived and developed in conjunction with investment and inventory, the study of optimal replacement has never been effectively extended to the area of consumer durable goods. The primary objective of this paper is to study such a problem within the inter-temporal utility maximization framework in which a consumer has a finite, fixed time horizon and derives satisfaction from the consumption of both durable and non-durable goods. In particular, family housing is used to illustrate the choice process

‣ From Pawn Shops to Banks : The Impact of Formal Credit on Informal Households

Ruiz, Claudia
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper; Publications & Research
Português
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This paper examines the effects of expanding access to credit on the decisions and welfare of households. It focuses on the entry of Banco Azteca, the first bank in Mexico targeting households from the informal sector. Panel data suggest that informal households in municipalities with Banco Azteca branches experienced several changes in their saving, credit and consumption patterns. In order to estimate the impact of Azteca's entry, the paper develops a dynamic model of household choices in which the bank is endogenously selecting the municipalities for branch openings. The analysis finds that in municipalities in which the bank entered, households were better able to smooth their consumption and accumulate more durable goods even though the overall proportion of households that save went down by 6.6 percent. These results suggest that the use of savings as a buffer on income fluctuations declines once formal credit is available. What is more, these effects vary across households. Among informal households...

‣ The Earnings Effects of Multilateral Trade Liberalization : Implications for Poverty

Hertel, Thomas W.; Ivanic, Maros; Preckel, Paul V.; Cranfield, John A.L.
Fonte: Washington, DC: World Bank Publicador: Washington, DC: World Bank
Tipo: Journal Article; Publications & Research :: Journal Article; Publications & Research
Português
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Most researchers examining poverty and multilateral trade liberalization have had to examine average, or per capita effects, suggesting that if per capita real income rises, poverty will fall. This inference can be misleading. Combining results from a new international cross-section consumption analysis with earnings data from household surveys, this article analyzes the implications of multilateral trade liberalization for poverty in Indonesia. It finds that the aggregate reduction in Indonesia's national poverty headcount following global trade liberalization masks a more complex set of impacts across groups. In the short run the poverty headcount rises slightly for self-employed agricultural households, as agricultural profits fail to keep up with increases in consumer prices. In the long run the poverty headcount falls for all earnings strata, as increased demand for unskilled workers lifts incomes for the formerly self-employed, some of whom move into the wage labor market. A decomposition of the poverty changes in Indonesia associated with different countries' trade policies finds that reform in other countries leads to a reduction in poverty in Indonesia but that liberalization of Indonesia's trade policies leads to an increase. The method used here can be readily extended to any of the other 13 countries in the sample.

‣ Africa's Pulse, October 2012 : An Analysis of Issues Shaping Africa's Economic Future

World Bank
Fonte: Washington, DC Publicador: Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Newsletter; Publications & Research
Português
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This Africa's pulse newsletter includes the following headings: Sub-Saharan African countries continue to grow at a steady pace; the region's decade-long economic expansion appears sustainable; and for newly resource-rich countries, strong governance will be key to harnessing resource wealth for development.

‣ Malawi - Poverty and Vulnerability Assessment : Investing in Our Future

World Bank
Fonte: Washington, DC Publicador: Washington, DC
Tipo: Economic & Sector Work :: Poverty Assessment; Economic & Sector Work
Português
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This study builds a profile of the status of poverty and vulnerability in Malawi. Malawi is a small land-locked country, with one of the highest population densities in Sub-Saharan Africa, and one of the lowest per capita income levels in the world. Almost 90 percent of the population lives in rural areas, and is mostly engaged in smallholder, rain-fed agriculture. Most people are therefore highly vulnerable to annual rainfall volatility. The majority of households cultivate very small landholdings, largely for subsistence. As a result, poverty is pervasive and not merely the situation of the lowest economic groups. Therefore, while this report focuses on the least-well-off sections of the population, the analysis provides valuable information to accelerate wealth creation and economic growth for the whole of Malawi. This synthesis report presents the main findings and policy recommendations stemming from the analysis. Due to the length and detail of this study, the 'full report' presenting the detailed analysis and results underpinning these policy recommendations is available as a separate publication. This report highlights some of the key characteristics and causes of poverty in Malawi...

‣ Evolutionary Model of a Anonymous Consumer Durable Market

Kaldasch, Joachim
Fonte: Universidade Cornell Publicador: Universidade Cornell
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica
Publicado em 14/06/2013 Português
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An analytic model is presented that considers the evolution of a market of durable goods. The model suggests that after introduction goods spread always according to a Bass diffusion. However, this phase will be followed by a diffusion process for durable consumer goods governed by a variation-selection-reproduction mechanism and the growth dynamics can be described by a replicator equation. Describing the aggregate sales as the sum of first, multiple and replacement purchase the product life cycle can be derived. Replacement purchase causes periodic variations of the sales determined by the finite lifetime of the good (Juglar cycles). The model suggests that both, Bass- and Gompertz diffusion may contribute to the product life cycle of a consumer durable. The theory contains the standard equilibrium view of a market as a special case. It depends on the time scale, whether an equilibrium or evolutionary description is more appropriate. The evolutionary framework is used to derive also the size, growth rate and price distribution of manufacturing business units. It predicts that the size distribution of the business units (products) is lognormal, while the growth rates exhibit a Laplace distribution. Large price deviations from the mean price are also governed by a Laplace distribution (fat tails). These results are in agreement with empirical findings. The explicit comparison of the time evolution of consumer durables with empirical investigations confirms the close relationship between price decline and Gompertz diffusion...

‣ The Limits of Planned Obsolescence for Conspicuous Durable Goods

Agrawal, Vishal V.; Kavadias, Stylianos; Toktay, L. Beril
Fonte: INFORMS Publicador: INFORMS
Tipo: Article; accepted version
Português
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This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from INFORMS via http://dx.doi.org/10.1287/msom.2015.0554; An extensive body of literature argues for the benefits of planned obsolescence, the strategy of designing products with low durability to induce repeat purchases from the consumers, and allow the firm to sell a larger volume. Yet, several firms avoid planned obsolescence and instead offer products with high durability. In this paper, we offer a demand-side rationale for a high-durability product design strategy: the exclusivity-seeking consumer behavior associated with conspicuous consumption. In the presence of consumers who value exclusivity, we find that firms benefit from designing products with higher durability in conjunction with a high-price, low-volume introduction strategy. A higher durability in such a context leads to greater resale value, allowing the firm to charge a higher price and lower the sales volume to achieve the product exclusivity valued by the consumers. This contrasts with the planned obsolescence strategy that capitalizes on the high sales volume achieved by setting a low new product price. We also show that offering higher durability and charging a higher price are complementary levers to respond to consumers who value exclusivity. Our analysis unearths insights regarding the effect of exclusivity-seeking behavior on a firm's demand and pricing. We show that firms' durability choice may explain the joint increase in price and demand for conspicuous goods.