Esta pesquisa investiga o comportamento de determinação de preços na cidade de São Paulo. São analisadas mais de seis milhões de cotações do índice de preços ao consumidor da FIPE. Os principais resultados são: (i) a freqüência média de mudança dos preços é de 32,35% ao mês; (ii) os preços duram em média 2,56 meses; (iii) há grande heterogeneidade entre produtos quanto ao comportamento de mudança dos preços; (iv) 40% das mudanças de preço são para baixo; (v) as mudanças de preço possuem magnitude considerável; (vi) a freqüência de mudança dos preços exibe padrões sazonais em alguns grupos; (vii) a freqüência de mudança dos preços respondeu às incertezas eleitorais de 2002 em alguns grupos; (viii) as funções de risco comum são decrescentes e apresentam picos na duração correspondente a doze meses para alguns subgrupos, e (ix) o risco de mudança dos preços responde ao índice inflacionário para aproximadamente 70% dos subgrupos.; This research investigates the price-setting behavior in São Paulo city. We analyze more than six millions of consumer price index quotes produced by FIPE. The main results are: (i) the average frequency of price change is 32,35% per month; (ii) the prices remain unchanged on average for 2...

Introdução: A análise das principais tendências sobre consumo de alimentos tem apontado para a diminuição do consumo de alimentos in natura e o aumento do consumo de produtos industrializados. Este padrão de consumo pode levar à deficiências nutricionais e propiciar o surgimento de doenças crônicas não transmissíveis como a obesidade, dislipidemias e hipertensão. Os hábitos de consumo alimentar são afetados por uma grande variedade de fatores em que se destacam os econômicos, como preços relativos de alimentos e renda da população. Analisar a evolução dos preços relativos pode nos fornecer subsídios que possibilitam visualizar as tendências da relação entre os grupos alimentares. Objetivos: Analisar a evolução dos preços relativos dos grupos de alimentos a partir da elaboração dos números-índices dos preços relativos para o período de 1939 a 2010 com a utilização do banco de dados do Índice de Preços ao Consumidor da Fundação Instituto de Pesquisas Econômicas (IPC/FIPE). Metodologia: Para analisar a evolução dos preços relativos, foram utilizados o banco de preços da FIPE e as estruturas de ponderação da FIPE (1939-1988) e do IBGE (1989-2010), desagregadas por classe de renda a partir de 1972. O banco de preços foi organizado...

Este trabalho compara modelos de séries temporais para a projeção de curto prazo da inflação brasileira, medida pelo Índice de Preços ao Consumidor Amplo (IPCA). Foram considerados modelos SARIMA de Box e Jenkins e modelos estruturais em espaço de estados, estimados pelo filtro de Kalman. Para a estimação dos modelos, foi utilizada a série do IPCA na base mensal, de março de 2003 a março de 2012. Os modelos SARIMA foram estimados no EVIEWS e os modelos estruturais no STAMP. Para a validação dos modelos para fora da amostra, foram consideradas as previsões 1 passo à frente para o período de abril de 2012 a março de 2013, tomando como base os principais critérios de avaliação de capacidade preditiva propostos na literatura. A conclusão do trabalho é que, embora o modelo estrutural permita, decompor a série em componentes com interpretação direta e estudá-las separadamente, além de incorporar variáveis explicativas de forma simples, o desempenho do modelo SARIMA para prever a inflação brasileira foi superior, no período e horizonte considerados. Outro importante aspecto positivo é que a implementação de um modelo SARIMA é imediata, e previsões a partir dele são obtidas de forma simples e direta.; This paper compares time series models to forecast short-term Brazilian inflation measured by Consumer Price Index (IPCA). Were considered SARIMA Box-Jenkins models and structural models in state space...

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) of the Bureau of Labor Statistics is an index which measures the price changes of 300 goods and services. Among these 300 items are several which reflect price changes for selected health care and medical care services. These comprise the medical care index and physician fee index, depending on what services are being measured.

This article examines the conceptually desirable attributes of a fully quality-adjusted prescription drug price index. It provides an understanding of how the Consumer Price Index for prescription drugs and medical supplies treats quality changes in prescription drugs and, in particular, quality changes associated with the introduction of new drugs.

Food price inflation not only threatens macroeconomic stability but also decreases the welfare levels of most households, especially the poorer ones, for whom food consumption constitutes a relatively large share of total expenditures. This report analyzes the causes and effects of food price inflation in South Asia during the period 2007?08 and beyond; simulates the impact of food price increases on household welfare and the potential of adjustments in consumer and producer behavior for mitigating the negative impact on welfare; and assesses the potential impact of regional trade liberalization on food prices. The appendixes describe the policy reactions of individual governments to the increases in food prices against the background of their respective domestic food policies. The focus is on wheat and rice, which are the main food staples in South Asia and together account for an important part of food expenditures of the poor. By analyzing the household?level impacts of the food crisis and taking stock of the policy responses of national governments...

The spike in food prices between 2005 and the first half of 2008 has highlighted the vulnerabilities of poor consumers to higher prices of agricultural goods and generated calls for massive policy action. This paper provides a formal assessment of the direct and indirect impacts of higher prices on global poverty using a representative sample of 63 to 93 percent of the population of the developing world. To assess the direct effects, the paper uses domestic food consumer price data between January 2005 and December 2007--when the relative price of food rose by an average of 5.6 percent --to find that the implied increase in the extreme poverty headcount at the global level is 1.7 percentage points, with significant regional variation. To take the second-order effects into account, the paper links household survey data with a global general equilibrium model, finding that a 5.5 percent increase in agricultural prices (due to rising demand for first-generation biofuels) could raise global poverty in 2010 by 0.6 percentage points at the extreme poverty line and 0.9 percentage points at the moderate poverty line. Poverty increases at the regional level vary substantially...

The Egyptian pound depreciated sharply between 2000 and 2005, declining by 26 percent in nominal trade-weighted terms. The author investigates the effect of the large depreciation on household welfare operating through exchange rate-induced changes in consumer prices. He estimates exchange rate pass-through regressions using disaggregated monthly consumer price indices to isolate the impact of the exchange rate changes on consumer prices. Then he uses household-level data from the 2000 and 2005 Egyptian household surveys to quantify the welfare effects of these consumer price changes at the household level. The average welfare loss due to exchange rate-induced price increases was equivalent to 7.4 percent of initial expenditure. Stronger estimated exchange rate pass-through for food items imply that this effect disproportionately affected poorer households.

Consumption baskets vary across households and inflation rates vary across goods. As a result, standard consumer price index (CPI) inflation may provide a misleading measure of the inflation actually faced by poor households, more so the more unequal the distribution of aggregate consumption across households. Likewise, changes in observed nominal consumption inequality may be very different from those in true inequality, that is, that measured using household-specific CPIs. The authors explore empirically these issues using household data covering nine episodes from four Latin American countries (Brazil, Colombia, Mexico, and Peru). They find that in these countries standard CPI inflation typically reflects the inflation rate faced by a rich consumer located in the 80 to 90 percentile of the distribution of consumption expenditure. In most episodes the authors also find that inflation was anti-rich-that is, the inflation faced by the richest consumers was higher than the inflation faced by the poorest consumers. As a result of this bias, the observed increases in nominal inequality generally exceed the actual changes in real inequality. These results are robust to correcting for quality change bias in the CPI, to the use of alternative price indices...

This paper presents new estimates of pass-through coefficients from international to domestic food prices by country in the Middle East and North Africa. The estimates indicate that, despite the use of food price subsidies and other government interventions, a rise in global food prices is transmitted to a significant degree into domestic food prices in many countries in the Middle East and North Africa, although cross-country variation is significant. In nearly all countries, domestic food prices are highly downwardly rigid. The finding of asymmetric price transmission suggests that not only international food price levels matter, but also food price volatility. High food pass-through tends to increase inflation pressures, where food consumption shares are high. Domestic factors, often linked to storage, logistics, and procurement, have also played a major role in explaining high food inflation in the majority of countries in the region.

Lao PDR economic performance has continued to improve during 2006. Real GDP grew at 7.0 percent in 2005 and is now expected to be slightly higher at 7.3 percent in 2006. This growth is in large part due to foreign investment inflows in mining and hydro-power and growing mineral exports, but the share of non-mining contributions has increased this year, reaching 4.9 out of 7.3 percent. Agriculture, manufacturing and services sectors are expected to sustain growth, due to rising FDI in agriculture, manufacturing, and increasing trend in services (especially tourism). Inflation (of Consumer Price Index) has continued to remain in single digits: after rising early this year it has dropped remarkably during the last few months, to 5.5 percent in September and 3.7 percent in October 2006. This paper includes the following headings: introduction; part 1 recent economic developments -- the macroeconomic situation, elaboration and implementation of the Poverty Reduction Strategy; part 2 structural reforms -- public expenditure policy and management...

Introduction: The measurement of regional differences in consumer price levels is important to policy makers in business, government and academics as well as to individual citizens faced with decisions on where to live. Estimates of the magnitude of regional price differences are needed in comparisons of real income, levels of living or consumer expenditure patterns across regions. In large Federal countries such as India and the US, with considerable heterogeneity in preferences, quality of items and household characteristics between regions, the calculation of regional price differentials, hence, acquires considerable importance. There is, therefore, a significant literature, mostly based on US data, on the measurement of regional cost of living [see, for example, Moulton (1995), Kokoski, Moulton and Zeischang (1999), Koo, Phillips and Sigalla (2000)]. The literature on multilateral price index numbers is mostly concerned with the construction of PPP’s/exchange rates from item/group-wise price and quantity/expenditure/ share data available at the level of region/country. There is no reference to the use of microlevel data (for example, household level data on commodity prices/unit values available from countrywide consumer expenditure surveys) for estimation of multilateral price index numbers reflecting regional price differentials. However...

Este artículo expone los aspectos básicos de la elaboración de un nuevo y auténtico Índice de Precios de Consumo de España para el período 1830-1936. Los distintos apartados en que está organizado se dedican a definir el campo de observación y el ámbito analizados, las fuentes empleadas y la metodología utilizada, así como las similitudes y diferencias con otros índices actualmente disponibles. Contiene, asimismo, un primer y breve análisis de los resultados. La característica más sobresaliente desde la perspectiva de las tendencias de largo plazo del nuevo IPC es una gran estabilidad, quebrada de forma importante, tan sólo, durante los años 1914-1920 bajo la influencia de la Primera Guerra Mundial. La tasa de crecimiento para el conjunto del período no alcanzó siquiera el 1 por cien anual, pese al cambio de nivel registrado en aquel breve brote inflacionista.; This paper exposes the main issues involved in the development of a new and authentic Spain Consumer Price Index for the period of 1830 to 1936. The different sections in which it is arranged are focused on defining the field of study and scope to be analyzed, the sources and methodology used, as well as the similarities and differences in respect of other currently available indexes. It also contains a first and brief analysis of the results. The most outstanding characteristic of the new CPI from a long term perspective is its high stability...

The primary purpose of this study is to produce household specific price indexes for consumer units or households living in the United States in the early 1990s. This paper is a report on how these household specific indexes were created. With household specific indexes, households are assumed to have nonhomothetic preferences, so changes in prices involve relative price changes between different sets of commodities and the resulting indexes will differ systematically between different households. We examine several different approaches to construct these indexes. Our indexes are based on internal U.S. Consumer Expenditure Survey (CEX) data for 1990-91 and Bureau of Labor Statistics Consumer Price Index (CPI) data from winter 1981, 1987, and 1991. Our base period is 1990-91. Using these data we produce Paasche type household specific indexes. In addition we propose an alternative definition of total expenditures, based on the CPI market basket commodity space, to be used for welfare analysis. Our underlying motivation for conducting this study was to compare real welfare inequality in Spain and the U.S. in the 1980s for another study (Garner et al. forthcoming 1997). Because of this comparison, we were somewhat restricted in our approach. CEX data are used to calculate CPI market basket item budget shares for each interviewed household. Price indexes are merged with the household budget data at various levels of geographic and market basket item aggregation...

Income growth in emerging economies has often been cited as a key driver of the past decade’s com-modity price boom—the longest and broadest boom since World War II. This paper shows that income has a negative and highly significant effect on real food commodity prices, a finding that is consistent with Engel’s Law and Kindleberger’s thesis, the predecessors of the Prebisch-Singer hypothe-sis. The paper also shows that, in the long run, income influences real food prices mainly through the manufacturing price channel (the deflator), hence weakening the view that income growth exerts strong upward pressure on food prices. Other (short-term) drivers of food prices include energy costs, inventories, and monetary conditions.

The CPI compares the cost of acquiring a reference quantity vector at current and base prices. Such reference vector is the vector of mean quantities actually bought by a reference population, whose consumption patterns are investigated during a period t prior to the index base period 0. In this paper we show that unless one takes into account the price change between these two dates, the CPI ceases to be a proper statistical price index of the Laspeyres type. Among several negative consequences, the most important is that this omission produces a bias in the measurement of inflation which we call the `Laspeyres bias.' Using Spanish data, we estimate that, e.g., from 1992 to 1998, the size of the Laspeyres bias is -0.061 per cent per year, or about 6 per cent (in absolute terms) of the positive bias estimated by the Boskin commission for the U.S., which is equal to 1.1 per cent per year. The Laspeyres bias in shorter time periods reached -0.122, and -0.108 per cent per year in 1992, and 1997, respectively

The Report into How Military Superannuation Pensions are Indexed Compared to Social Security Age Pensions was produced to show reasonable cause as to why military pensions should be indexed to the Consumer Price Index or the Male Total Average Weekly Earnings, whichever one is greater, than its current indexation of the Consumer Price Index. Social Security age pensions are currently indexed to the higher of the two, Consumer Price Index or Male Total Average Weekly Earnings. The Consumer Price Index has been and continues to fall behind that of other indexation methods, specifically that of the Male Total Average Weekly Earnings. The adjustments are made to military pensions in line with the movements of the Consumer Price Index twice yearly in March and September of every year. Age pensions are adjusted with the changes in the Consumer Price Index or the Male Total Average Weekly Earnings, alternations will be made to the pensions depending on which indicator is. higher. Adjustments and enhancements have occurred towards the Defence Force Retirement Benefits Act 194&, the Defence Force Retirement and Death Benefits Act 1972, and the Military Superannuation and Benefits Scheme; no alternations have taken place with their indexation of pensions. The Government has had Review Teams look into changing the indexation of military superannuation schemes and numerous recommendations for exservice associations have been submitted during these reviews about changing the indexation but nothing has developed from these actions pertaining to the modifying the indexation. This report looks into how age pensions are obtaining a higher quality of indexation and potentially a more desirable standard of living than military personnel. Members of the Australian Defence Force do not have a job or work environment comparable to that of a civilian. Soldiers have a 'unique nature of military service' which should be acknowledged and they should be compensated for putting their lives in jeopardy for their country. Members of the Australian Defence Force who contribute to their compulsory superannuation scheme and their pensions have been decreasing over the years as a result of being tied to the Consumer Price Index. As a result of the research and comprehension of the difference between military and age pensions...

Macroeconomic stability in Vietnam is improving, underpinned by moderating inflation and strengthening external accounts. Headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation has stabilized, aided by subdued credit growth and easing of food price increases. The decline in core inflation has been more gradual. Pressure on the Vietnamese currency has also eased substantially. A sustained recovery in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth remains hampered however by slow-moving structural reforms and global uncertainty. With rising pressures on the budget, the government is faced with some crucial fiscal policy choices, as it seeks to balance the objectives of economic expansion and macroeconomic stability. This paper explores crucial issues such as trade facilitation, competitiveness and growth, poverty and inequality, corruption and economic growth in Vietnam, the external economic environment, and recent economic developments in Vietnam.

This paper aims to identify the nexus between the excess of liquidity in the United States and commodity prices over the 1983-2006 period. In particular, it assesses whether commodity prices react more powerfully than consumer goods' prices to changes in real money balances. Within a cointegrated vector autoregressive framework, the author investigates whether consumer prices and commodity prices react to excess liquidity, and if the different price elasticities of supply for goods and commodities allow for differences in the dynamic paths of price adjustment to a liquidity shock. The results show a positive relationship between real money and real commodity prices and provide empirical evidence for a stronger response of commodity prices with respect to consumer goods' prices. This could imply that, if the magnitude of the reaction is due the fact that consumer goods' prices are slower to react, then their long-run value can be predicted with the help of commodity prices. The findings support the view that the latter should be considered as a valid monetary indicator.

Poverty reduction is an important goal for governments of many developing countries. This goal is synonymous with economic development and achieving a higher quality of life for all population groups. Thus, monitoring the dynamics of poverty and inequality is implicit in the monitoring of progress in societal development. As the vast literature shows, development progress to a large extent depends on economic and social policies and economic growth. Thus, identifying the relationship between relevant economic variables and poverty and inequality indicators may provide policy guidance on what has furthered the country's progress. The report consists of two main parts. The first part discusses poverty and inequality for 2009 and, thus, from a static perceptive. So, the first section describes and discusses the main features and correlates of the poor. The goal is to provide a brief overview of poverty in the Kyrgyz Republic and describe the characteristics of households and the poor. This is achieved by considering the poverty incidence among households and individuals differentiated by such characteristics as age...