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‣ Evolução dos preços relativos e da estrutura de gastos com alimentos no município de São Paulo: uma aplicação do banco de dados do IPC-FIPE de 1939 a 2010; Evolution of relative price of food and structure of food spending in the city of São Paulo: an application of IPC-FIPE´s database from 1939 to 2010

Yuba, Tania Yuka
Fonte: Biblioteca Digitais de Teses e Dissertações da USP Publicador: Biblioteca Digitais de Teses e Dissertações da USP
Tipo: Dissertação de Mestrado Formato: application/pdf
Publicado em 03/11/2011 Português
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Introdução: A análise das principais tendências sobre consumo de alimentos tem apontado para a diminuição do consumo de alimentos in natura e o aumento do consumo de produtos industrializados. Este padrão de consumo pode levar à deficiências nutricionais e propiciar o surgimento de doenças crônicas não transmissíveis como a obesidade, dislipidemias e hipertensão. Os hábitos de consumo alimentar são afetados por uma grande variedade de fatores em que se destacam os econômicos, como preços relativos de alimentos e renda da população. Analisar a evolução dos preços relativos pode nos fornecer subsídios que possibilitam visualizar as tendências da relação entre os grupos alimentares. Objetivos: Analisar a evolução dos preços relativos dos grupos de alimentos a partir da elaboração dos números-índices dos preços relativos para o período de 1939 a 2010 com a utilização do banco de dados do Índice de Preços ao Consumidor da Fundação Instituto de Pesquisas Econômicas (IPC/FIPE). Metodologia: Para analisar a evolução dos preços relativos, foram utilizados o banco de preços da FIPE e as estruturas de ponderação da FIPE (1939-1988) e do IBGE (1989-2010), desagregadas por classe de renda a partir de 1972. O banco de preços foi organizado...

‣ Food Price Increases in South Asia : National Responses and Regional Dimensions

World Bank
Fonte: World Bank Publicador: World Bank
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
59.069404%
Food price inflation not only threatens macroeconomic stability but also decreases the welfare levels of most households, especially the poorer ones, for whom food consumption constitutes a relatively large share of total expenditures. This report analyzes the causes and effects of food price inflation in South Asia during the period 2007?08 and beyond; simulates the impact of food price increases on household welfare and the potential of adjustments in consumer and producer behavior for mitigating the negative impact on welfare; and assesses the potential impact of regional trade liberalization on food prices. The appendixes describe the policy reactions of individual governments to the increases in food prices against the background of their respective domestic food policies. The focus is on wheat and rice, which are the main food staples in South Asia and together account for an important part of food expenditures of the poor. By analyzing the household?level impacts of the food crisis and taking stock of the policy responses of national governments...

‣ The Role of Inventory Adjustments in Quantifying Factors Causing Food Price Inflation

Hochman, Gal; Rajagopal, Deepak; Timilsina, Govinda; Zilberman, David
Fonte: Banco Mundial Publicador: Banco Mundial
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
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The food commodity price increases beginning in 2001 and culminating in the food crisis of 2007/08 reflected a combination of several factors, including economic growth, biofuel expansion, exchange rate fluctuations, and energy price inflation. To quantify these influences, the authors developed an empirical model that also included crop inventory adjustments. The study shows that, if inventory effects are not taken into account, the impacts of the various factors on food commodity price inflation would be overestimated. If the analysis ignores crop inventory adjustments, it indicates that prices of corn, soybean, rapeseed, rice, and wheat would have been, respectively, 42, 38, 52, and 45 percent lower than the corresponding observed prices in 2007. If inventories are properly taken into account, the contributions of the above mentioned factors to those commodity prices are 36, 26, 26, and 35 percent, respectively. Those four factors, taken together, explain 70 percent of the price increase for corn, 55 percent for soybean...

‣ Poverty Effects of Higher Food Prices : A Global Perspective

De Hoyos, Rafael E.; Medvedev, Denis
Fonte: Banco Mundial Publicador: Banco Mundial
Português
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The spike in food prices between 2005 and the first half of 2008 has highlighted the vulnerabilities of poor consumers to higher prices of agricultural goods and generated calls for massive policy action. This paper provides a formal assessment of the direct and indirect impacts of higher prices on global poverty using a representative sample of 63 to 93 percent of the population of the developing world. To assess the direct effects, the paper uses domestic food consumer price data between January 2005 and December 2007--when the relative price of food rose by an average of 5.6 percent --to find that the implied increase in the extreme poverty headcount at the global level is 1.7 percentage points, with significant regional variation. To take the second-order effects into account, the paper links household survey data with a global general equilibrium model, finding that a 5.5 percent increase in agricultural prices (due to rising demand for first-generation biofuels) could raise global poverty in 2010 by 0.6 percentage points at the extreme poverty line and 0.9 percentage points at the moderate poverty line. Poverty increases at the regional level vary substantially...

‣ The Welfare Effects of a Large Depreciation : The Case of Egypt, 2000-05

Kraay, Aart
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Português
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The Egyptian pound depreciated sharply between 2000 and 2005, declining by 26 percent in nominal trade-weighted terms. The author investigates the effect of the large depreciation on household welfare operating through exchange rate-induced changes in consumer prices. He estimates exchange rate pass-through regressions using disaggregated monthly consumer price indices to isolate the impact of the exchange rate changes on consumer prices. Then he uses household-level data from the 2000 and 2005 Egyptian household surveys to quantify the welfare effects of these consumer price changes at the household level. The average welfare loss due to exchange rate-induced price increases was equivalent to 7.4 percent of initial expenditure. Stronger estimated exchange rate pass-through for food items imply that this effect disproportionately affected poorer households.

‣ Getting Real about Inequality : Evidence from Brazil, Colombia, Mexico, and Peru

Servén, Luis; López, Humberto; Goñi, Edwin
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Português
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59.443164%
Consumption baskets vary across households and inflation rates vary across goods. As a result, standard consumer price index (CPI) inflation may provide a misleading measure of the inflation actually faced by poor households, more so the more unequal the distribution of aggregate consumption across households. Likewise, changes in observed nominal consumption inequality may be very different from those in true inequality, that is, that measured using household-specific CPIs. The authors explore empirically these issues using household data covering nine episodes from four Latin American countries (Brazil, Colombia, Mexico, and Peru). They find that in these countries standard CPI inflation typically reflects the inflation rate faced by a rich consumer located in the 80 to 90 percentile of the distribution of consumption expenditure. In most episodes the authors also find that inflation was anti-rich-that is, the inflation faced by the richest consumers was higher than the inflation faced by the poorest consumers. As a result of this bias, the observed increases in nominal inequality generally exceed the actual changes in real inequality. These results are robust to correcting for quality change bias in the CPI, to the use of alternative price indices...

‣ Sugar Prices, Labor Income, and Poverty in Brazil

Krivonos, Ekaterina; Olarreaga, Marcelo
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Português
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This paper assesses the impact that a potential liberalization of sugar regimes in OECD countries could have on household labor income and poverty in Brazil. The authors first estimate the extent of price transmission from world markets to 11 Brazilian states to capture the fact that some local markets may be relatively more isolated from changes in world prices. They then simultaneously estimate the impact that changes in domestic sugar prices have on regional wages and employment depending on worker characteristics. Finally, they measure the impact on household income of a 10 percent increase in world sugar prices. Results suggest that workers in the sugar sector and in sugar-producing regions have better employment opportunities and experience larger wage increases. More interestingly, households at the top of the income distribution experience larger income gains due to higher wages, whereas households at the bottom of the distribution experience larger income gains due to movements out of unemployment.

‣ Implications of WTO Agreements and Unilateral Trade Policy Reforms for Poverty in Bangladesh : Short versus Long-Run Impacts

Annabi, Nabil; Khondker, Bazlul; Raihan, Selim; Cockburn, John; Decaluwe, Bernard
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Português
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The authors examine the effects of WTO agreements and domestic trade policy reforms on production, welfare, and poverty in Bangladesh. They use a sequential dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model, which takes into account accumulation effects, allowing for long-run analysis. The study is based on the 2000 Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) of Bangladesh including 15 production sectors, four factors of production (skilled and unskilled labor, agricultural and nonagricultural capital), and nine household groups (five in rural areas and four in urban areas). To examine the link between the macroeconomic effects and microeconomic effects in terms of poverty, the authors use the representative household approach with actual intra-group income distributions. The study presents five simulations for which the major findings are: (1) The Doha scenario has negative implications for the overall macroeconomy, household welfare, and poverty in Bangladesh. Terms of trade deteriorate and consumer prices, particularly food prices, increase more than nominal incomes, especially among poor households. (2) Free world trade has similar, but larger, impacts. (3) Domestic trade liberalization induces an expansion of agricultural and light manufacturing sectors...

‣ Durable Goods and Poverty Measurement

Amendola, Nicola; Vecchi, Giovanni
Fonte: World Bank Group, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank Group, Washington, DC
Português
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49.03075%
The paper focuses on durable goods and their role in the measurement of living standards. The paper reviews the theoretical underpinnings of the methods available to estimate the value of the services flowing from consumer durable goods. It also provides a unified framework that encompasses the acquisition approach, the rental equivalent approach, and the user cost approach. The pros and cons of each method are discussed in the context of poverty and inequality analysis and it is argued that the user cost should receive the highest consideration.

‣ The influence of demographics and household specific price indices on consumption based inequality and welfare : a comparison of Spain and the United States

Garner, Thesia I.; Ruiz-Castillo, Javier; Sastre, Mercedes
Fonte: Universidade Carlos III de Madrid Publicador: Universidade Carlos III de Madrid
Tipo: Trabalho em Andamento Formato: application/pdf
Publicado em /05/2002 Português
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58.323223%
Previous research suggests that income inequality is lower in Spain than in the U.S. This paper studies whether this ranking remains the same when household consumption expenditures are used as a proxy for household welfare. Both inequality and social welfare, as components of economic well-being, are examined. Total household expenditures from each country’s 1990-91 consumer expenditure survey are used as the basis for the analysis. For tractability, equivalence scales depend only on the number of people in the household and not any other demographic characteristic. Household specific price indices are used to express the 1990-91 expenditure distributions at winter of 1981 and winter of 1991 prices. Decomposable measurement instruments are used both for the inequality and social welfare analyses. Bootstrap methods are used to produce confidence intervals for all estimates. When consumption expenditures are substituted for income as the measure of economic well-being, the ranking of Spain and the U.S. varies as both household size and the equivalence scale adjustment change. When focusing on household size alone, inequality and welfare comparisons are drastically different for smaller and larger households. The income inequality ranking can only be maintained for expenditure distributions when economies of scale are assumed to be small or non-existent. However...

‣ Analyzing Food Price Trends in the Context of Engel’s Law and the Prebisch-Singer Hypothesis

Baffes, John; Etienne, Xiaoli L.
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Working Paper; Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper; Publications & Research
Português
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Income growth in emerging economies has often been cited as a key driver of the past decade’s com-modity price boom—the longest and broadest boom since World War II. This paper shows that income has a negative and highly significant effect on real food commodity prices, a finding that is consistent with Engel’s Law and Kindleberger’s thesis, the predecessors of the Prebisch-Singer hypothe-sis. The paper also shows that, in the long run, income influences real food prices mainly through the manufacturing price channel (the deflator), hence weakening the view that income growth exerts strong upward pressure on food prices. Other (short-term) drivers of food prices include energy costs, inventories, and monetary conditions.

‣ The influence of demographic and household specific price indices on expenditure based inequality and welfare: a comparison of Spain and the United States

Garner, Thesia I.; Ruiz-Castillo, Javier; Sastre, Mercedes
Fonte: Universidade Carlos III de Madrid Publicador: Universidade Carlos III de Madrid
Tipo: Trabalho em Andamento Formato: application/pdf
Publicado em /07/1999 Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
58.53913%
The purpose of this research is to examine the role of household size and household specific price indices on inequality and welfare measurement in Spain and the O.S. Total household expenditures from each countries' 1990-91 consumer expenditure surveys, with adjustments to reflect more accurately households' current consumption, are used as the basis for the analysis. Household size scale factors are used to produce adjusted expenditures. Household specific price indices are used to expresss the 1990-91 expenditure distribution at winter of 1981 and winter of 1991 prices. Decomposable measurement instruments are used both for the inequality and social welfare analyses. Our results show that wide differences in household size can be very important in international comparisons. Inequality and welfare comparisons are drastically different for smaller and larger households. For both countries we find that from the point of view of winter 1981, the amount of expenditures that we would need to give to richer households to compensate them for inflation, over the 1981 to 1991 period, would be greater than the amount that we would need to give to poorer households for them to be able to acquire the same bundle of goods. Our inequality comparisons are robust to the choice of the reference price vector.

‣ Are International Food Price Spikes the Source of Egypt's High Inflation?

Al-Shawarby, Sherine; Selim, Hoda
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper; Publications & Research
Português
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This paper examines whether domestic inflation spikes in Egypt during 2001-2011 were primarily the result of external food price shocks. To estimate the pass-through of international food price inflation to domestic price inflation, two different methodologies are used: a two-step regression model estimates the pass-through in the long run, and a vector autoregression model provides the short-run estimates. The empirical evidence confirms that pass-through is high in the short term, but not in the long run. More precisely, the results show that (i) long-run pass-through to domestic food inflation is relatively low, lying between 13 and 16 percent, while the long-term spill-over from domestic food inflation to core inflation is moderate, lying around 60 percent; (ii) in the short term, pass-through is relatively high, estimated around 29 percent after 6 months and around two-thirds after a year, but the spill-over effect to core inflation is limited; (iii) international food price shocks explain only a small portion of domestic inflation shocks in both the short and long terms; and (iv) international price inflation has asymmetric effects on domestic prices.

‣ Integrating Central American and International Food Markets : An Analysis of Food Price Transmission in Honduras and Nicaragua

Arias, Diego; De Franco, Mario A.
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Working Paper; Publications & Research
Português
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49.07956%
In 2004 the Central American countries of Nicaragua, Honduras, Guatemala, El Salvador, Costa Rica, and the Dominican Republic signed the Dominican Republic-Central America Free Trade Agreement (DR-CAFTA) with the United States and are currently negotiating another agreement with the European Union and others. This study examines the dynamics among international and domestic food markets by assessing the transmission of international prices to domestic prices of key agriculture commodities in Honduras and Nicaragua. It analyzes to what degree, if at all, a change in the international price of a given food product influences the domestic price of that same good, at the level of the consumer and producer and in different regions in each country. This analysis provides important evidence of the price dynamics that guide public policy recommendations for a complementary agenda of agriculture trade liberaliza-tion in the region. There are two methods for analyzing the relationship between international and domestic prices. The first is to conduct a price wedge analysis-to evaluate the difference between international and domestic prices. The second method is to conduct a price transmission analysis by analyzing the variation in the percent growth of international versus domestic prices. Evidence from Nicaragua suggests that for most of the agriculture supply chains studied (except for beans) there is little competition in the country's domestic market structure. A few Nicaraguan companies own the majority share of the market...

‣ Handbook on Residential Property Prices Indices

Eurostat
Fonte: Luxembourg: Publications Office of the European Union Publicador: Luxembourg: Publications Office of the European Union
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Publication; Publications & Research
Português
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69.90245%
Residential property is both a source of wealth and, insofar as property owners live in or on their property, an important determining factor in their cost of living. The price of a house is something different from the cost of dwelling services it provides, though the two concepts are obviously interlinked. The need for property price indices that are fit-for-purpose was recognized at a conference organized jointly by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) in Washington DC, October 2003. As a result, a chapter on residential property price indices was added to the IMF's "compilation guide of financial soundness indicators". The idea of a more detailed handbook dates back to a workshop organized by the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) and the IMF on real estate price indices in Paris, November 2006. The aim of this handbook is to facilitate the setting-up of residential property price indices in countries where these are still missing and the improvement of existing price indices where this is deemed necessary. It is designed to give practical guidance on the compilation of house price indices...

‣ Oil Price Volatility, Economic Growth and the Hedging Role of Renewable Energy

Rentschler, Jun E.
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper; Publications & Research
Português
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58.720796%
This paper investigates the adverse effects of oil price volatility on economic activity and the extent to which countries can hedge against such effects by using renewable energy. By considering the Realized Volatility of oil prices, rather than following the standard approach of considering oil price shocks in levels, the effects of factor price uncertainty on economic activity are analyzed. Sample countries represent developed and developing, oil importing and exporting and service/industry-based economies (United States, Japan, Germany, South Korea, India, and Malaysia) and thus complement the standard literature's analysis of Western OECD countries. In a vector auto-regressive setting, Granger causality tests, impulse response functions, and variance decompositions show that oil price volatility has more-adverse effects in all sample countries than oil price shocks alone can explain. The paper finds that the sensitivity to oil price volatility varies widely across countries and discusses various factors which may determine the level of sensitivity (such as sectoral composition and the energy mix). This implies that the standard approach of solely considering net oil importer-exporter status is not sufficient. Simulations of volatility shocks in hypothetical energy mixes (with increased renewable shares) illustrate the potential economic benefits resulting from efforts to disconnect the macroeconomy from volatile commodity markets. It is concluded that expanding renewable energy can in principle reduce an economy's vulnerability to oil price volatility...

‣ Global Economic Prospects : Commodity Markets Outlook, July 2014

Baffes, John
Fonte: World Bank Group, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank Group, Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Working Paper; Publications & Research
Português
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49.013286%
Geopolitical concerns in Iraq and Ukraine/Russia earlier in the year put upward pressure on oil prices during the second quarter. As tensions moderate, oil prices are expected to decline in 2015. Metal prices eased during the 2014Q2 due to supply response from earlier investments and weakening demand, especially by China. Weather concerns (often linked to likely El Niño) induced price increases in some grains earlier in the year but recently prices have weakened as supplies for the upcoming, 2014/15, season are deemed adequate to keep stocks at reasonable levels. Agricultural prices are expected to decline slightly in 2015. The key commodity price indices have been broadly stable during 2014Q2. Energy and agricultural prices increased 1 percent each, on geopolitical and weather-related concerns, respectively; while metal prices declined 1 percent on signs of Chinese demand weakness. The increase in beverage prices was driven by a rally in coffee prices due to dry weather in Brazil world's largest coffee supplier. Precious metal prices changed little while fertilizer prices declined 6.5 percent due to weakness in natural gas prices.

‣ Rent Imputation for Welfare Measurement : A Review of Methodologies and Empirical Findings

Balcazar, Carlos Felipe; Ceriani, Lidia; Olivieri, Sergio; Ranzani, Marco
Fonte: World Bank Group, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank Group, Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper; Publications & Research
Português
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59.052686%
As well acknowledged in the literature, housing is often the dominant consumption good for most households. As such, it should be included in a comprehensive welfare aggregate to measure people's living standards accurately. However, assigning a value to the flow of the dwelling for homeowners and nonmarket tenants is problematic. Over the last decades several estimation techniques have been proposed and implemented by practitioners covering from very simple to sophisticated approaches. This paper provides an extensive review of different methods to impute rent, commonly used for welfare analysis. It also gives an overview of how this problem has been addressed by other economic domains, namely national accounts, price indices, purchasing power parities, and taxation. Finally, after setting up a theoretical framework, the paper summarizes the empirical findings about the distributional impact of including imputed rents in welfare aggregates.

‣ Cote d’Ivoire : Competitiveness, Cocoa, and the Real Exchange Rate

Bogetic, Zeljko; Espina, Carlos; Noer, John
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper; Publications & Research
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
49.226685%
This paper explores competitiveness of Cote d'Ivoire's economy over a long period of 1960-2003 and its link with cocoa prices. The main conclusions are as follows. First, using four measures of real effective exchange rate (REER) for the 1960-2002 period, we track the evolution of REER and conclude, inter alia, that until 2003, REER remained well below its 1994 level. Second, we find that based on our measure of the multilateral REER with dynamic weights, which covers most recorded trade, France no longer dominates Cote d'Ivoire's trade. Instead, Cote d'Ivoire has diversified its set of trading partners. Unfortunately, it has also specialized in one export product, raw cocoa. This paper aims to contribute to the question to what extent do cocoa prices affect Cote d'Ivoire's competitiveness in world trade? Third, the answer to this question is that cocoa prices are an important determinant of Cote d'Ivoire's competitiveness. Similar to the case of a classic "Dutch Disease," increases in the real world price of a "natural resource" (i.e....

‣ Chain indices of the cost of living and the path-dependence problem: an empirical solution

Oulton, Nicholas
Fonte: Centre for Economic Performance, London School of Economics and Political Science Publicador: Centre for Economic Performance, London School of Economics and Political Science
Tipo: Monograph; NonPeerReviewed Formato: application/pdf
Publicado em /05/2007 Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
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This paper proposes an empirically feasible method for correcting the path-dependence bias of chain indices of the cost of living. Chain indices are discrete approximations to Divisia indices and it is well known that the latter are path-dependent: the level of a Divisia index is affected not just by the level of prices at the two endpoints but also by the path between the endpoints. It is also well-known that a Divisia index of the cost of living is path-independent if and only if all income elasticities are equal to one, a restriction that is decisively rejected by studies of consumer demand. In theory, the true cost of living index (or Konüs price index) could be derived by estimating the expenditure function. But this seems impractical due to data limitations: the number of independent parameters rises roughly in proportion to the square of the number of commodities and consumer price indices contain hundreds of items. This paper shows how this problem can in fact be overcome empirically using a flexible model of demand like the “Quadratic Almost Ideal Demand System”. The proposed method requires data only on prices, aggregate budget shares and aggregate expenditure. The method is applied to estimate Konüs price indices for 70 products covering nearly all the UK’s Retail Prices Index over 1974-2004...