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‣ Education, Income and Ethnic Differences in Cumulative Biological Risk Profiles in a National Sample of US Adults: NHANES III (1988–1994)

Seeman, Teresa; Merkin, Sharon S; Crimmins, Eileen; Koretz, Brandon; Charette, Susan; Karlamangla, Arun
Fonte: PubMed Publicador: PubMed
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica
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Data from the nationally representative US NHANES III cohort were used to examine the hypothesis that socio-economic status is consistently and negatively associated with levels of biological risk, as measured by nine biological parameters known to predict health risks (diastolic and systolic blood pressure, pulse, HDL and total cholesterol, glycosylated hemoglobin, c-reactive protein, albumin and waist-hip ratio), resulting in greater cumulative burdens of biological risk among those of lower education and/or income. As hypothesized, consistent education and income gradients were seen for biological parameters reflecting cardiovascular, metabolic and inflammatory risk: those with lower education and income exhibiting greater prevalence of high risk values for each of nine individual biological risk factors. Significant education and income gradients were also seen for summary indices reflecting cumulative burdens of cardiovascular, metabolic and inflammatory risks as well as overall total biological risks. Multivariable cumulative logistic regression models revealed that the education and income effects were each independently and negatively associated with cumulative biological risks, and that these effects remained significant independent of age...

‣ Is the Developing World Catching up? Global Convergence and National Rising Dispersion

Bussolo, Maurizio; De Hoyos, Rafael E.; Medvedev, Denis
Fonte: Washington, DC: World Bank Publicador: Washington, DC: World Bank
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The present study uses the GIDD, a CGE-microsimulation model for Global Income Distribution Dynamics, to understand the ex-ante dynamics of global income distribution. Three main robust results emerge. First, under a set of realistic assumptions, there will be a reduction in global income inequality by 2030. This potential reduction can be fully accounted for by the projected convergence in average incomes across countries, with poor and populous countries growing faster than the rest of the world. Second, this convergence process will be accompanied by a widening of income distribution in two-thirds of the developing countries; the main cause being increasing skill premia. Third, a trend that may counter-balance the potential anti-globalization sentiment is the emergence of a global middle class: a group of consumers who demand access to, and have the means to purchase, international goods and services. The results show that the share of these consumers in the global population is likely to more than double in the next 20 years. These ex-ante trends in global income distribution suggest that the mid-1990s could be seen as a turning point after which global inequality began showing a negative tendency.

‣ Implications of Higher Global Food Prices for Poverty in Low-Income Countries

Ivanic, Maros; Martin, Will
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
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In many poor countries, the recent increases in prices of staple foods raise the real incomes of those selling food, many of whom are relatively poor, while hurting net food consumers, many of whom are also relatively poor. The impacts on poverty will certainly be very diverse, but the average impact on poverty depends upon the balance between these two effects, and can only be determined by looking at real-world data. Results using household data for ten observations on nine low-income countries show that the short-run impacts of higher staple food prices on poverty differ considerably by commodity and by country, but, that poverty increases are much more frequent, and larger, than poverty reductions. The recent large increases in food prices appear likely to raise overall poverty in low income countries substantially.

‣ Pro-Poor Growth: A Primer

Ravallion, Martin
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, D.C. Publicador: World Bank, Washington, D.C.
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These days it seems that almost everyone in the development community is talking about "pro-poor growth." What exactly is it, and how can we measure it? Is ordinary economic growth always "pro-poor growth" or is that some special kind of growth? And if it is something special, what makes it happen? The author first reviews alternative approaches to defining and measuring "pro-poor growth." He then analyzes evidence on whether growth is pro-poor, what factors make it more pro-poor (including the role played by both initial inequality and changing inequality), and whether the factors that make the distribution of the gains from growth pro-poor come at a cost to growth. The author identifies some priorities for future research.

‣ Global Income Distribution : From the Fall of the Berlin Wall to the Great Recession

Lakner, Christoph; Milanovic, Branko
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
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The paper presents a newly compiled and improved database of national household surveys between 1988 and 2008. In 2008, the global Gini index is around 70.5 percent having declined by approximately 2 Gini points over this twenty year period. When it is adjusted for the likely under-reporting of top incomes in surveys by using the gap between national accounts consumption and survey means in combination with a Pareto-type imputation of the upper tail, the estimate is a much higher global Gini of almost 76 percent. With such an adjustment the downward trend in the Gini almost disappears. Tracking the evolution of individual country-deciles shows the underlying elements that drive the changes in the global distribution: China has graduated from the bottom ranks, modifying the overall shape of the global income distribution in the process and creating an important global "median" class that has transformed a twin-peaked 1988 global distribution into an almost single-peaked one now. The "winners" were country-deciles that in 1988 were around the median of the global income distribution...

‣ Hidden Impact? Ex-Post Evaluation of an Anti-Poverty Program

Chen, Shaohua; Ravallion, Martin
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
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By the widely used difference-in-difference method, the Southwest China Poverty Reduction Project had little impact on the proportion of people in beneficiary villages consuming less than $1 a day-despite a public outlay of $400 million. Is that right, or is the true impact being hidden somehow? The authors find that impact estimates are quite sensitive to the choice of outcome indicator, the poverty line, and the matching method. There are larger poverty impacts at lower poverty lines. And there are much larger impacts on incomes than consumptions. Uncertainty about the impact probably made it hard for participants to infer the gain in permanent income, so they saved a high proportion of the short-term gain.

‣ Survey Compliance and the Distribution of Income

Mistiaen, Johan A.; Ravallion, Martin
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
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While it is improbable that households with different incomes are equally likely to participate in sample surveys, the lack of data for nonrespondents has hindered efforts to correct for the bias in measures of poverty and inequality. The authors demonstrate how the latent income effect on survey compliance can be estimated using readily available data on response rates across geographic areas. An application using the Current Population Survey for the United States indicates that compliance falls as income rises. Correcting for selective compliance appreciably increases mean income and inequality, but has only a small impact on poverty incidence up to commonly used poverty lines in the United States.

‣ Growth, Inequality, and Social Welfare : Cross-Country Evidence

Dollar, David; Kleineberg, Tatjana; Kraay, Aart
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
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Social welfare functions that assign weights to individuals based on their income levels can be used to document the relative importance of growth and inequality changes for changes in social welfare. In a large panel of industrial and developing countries over the past 40 years, most of the cross-country and over-time variation in changes in social welfare is due to changes in average incomes. In contrast, the changes in inequality observed during this period are on average much smaller than changes in average incomes, are uncorrelated with changes in average incomes, and have contributed relatively little to changes in social welfare.

‣ The Optimal Income Tax When Poverty Is a Public "Bad"

Wane, Waly
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
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The author considers poverty as an aggregate negative externality that affects people in different ways, depending on their aversion to poverty. If society is on average averse to poverty, then the optimal income tax schedule displays negative marginal tax rates, at least for less skilled individuals. Negative marginal tax rates play the role of a Pigouvian earnings subsidy, fostering the supply of poor individuals to provide labor. The result of no distortion at the endpoints, which is therefore violated, can be restored once the focus is shifted from individual to social distortions.

‣ Short-Lived Shocks with Long-Lived Impacts? Household Income Dynamics in a Transition Economy

Lokshin, Michael; Ravallion, Martin
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
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In theory, it is possible that the persistent poverty that has emerged in many transition economies, is attributable to underlying, non-convexities in the dynamics of household incomes - such that a vulnerable household will never recover from a sufficiently large, but short-lived shock to its income. This happens when there are multiple equilibria in household incomes, such that two households with the same characteristics, can have different incomes in the long run. To test the theory, the authors estimate a dynamic, panel data model of household incomes, with non-linear dynamics, and endogenous attrition. Their estimates, using data for Hungary in the 1990s, exhibit non-linearity in the income dynamics. The authors find no evidence of multiple equilibria. In general, households bounce back from transient shocks, although the process is not rapid.

‣ Measuring Inequality from Top to Bottom

Diaz-Bazan, Tania
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Trabalho em Andamento
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This paper presents a new methodology to measure inequality that optimally combines household survey information and tax records to construct a complete income distribution. Combining the two data sources is necessary because, on the one hand, household surveys do not accurately represent the wealthiest segment of the population, while tax records do; on the other hand, the opposite is true for the lower end of the income distribution: tax records only include incomes above a certain threshold. The key innovation of the proposed methodology—and the main difference from the existing literature—is the choice of an optimal income threshold b. The Gini coefficient for the population is then computed combining the conditional income distributions for incomes below b (using household survey data) and above b (using tax records). Central to this methodology is the fact that b is not chosen arbitrarily: it should be determined in such a way as to minimize reliance on household survey data to compute the top of the income distribution. In practice...

‣ The association between socioeconomic position, use of revascularization procedures and five-year survival after recovery from acute myocardial infarction

Rosvall, M.; Chaix, B.; Lynch, J.; Lindstrom, M.; Merlo, J.
Fonte: BioMed Central Ltd. Publicador: BioMed Central Ltd.
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica
Publicado em //2008 Português
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Background: Patients living under better socioeconomic circumstances often receive more active treatments after an acute myocardial infarction (AMI) compared to less affluent patients. However, most previous studies were performed in countries with less comprehensive coverage for medical services. In this Swedish nation-wide longitudinal study we wanted to evaluate long-term survival after AMI in relation to socioeconomic position (SEP) and use of revascularization. Methods: From the Swedish Myocardial Infarction Register we identified all 45 to 84-year-old patients (16,041 women and 30,366 men) alive 28 days after their first AMI during the period 1993 to 1996. We obtained detailed information on the use of revascularization, cumulative household income from the 1975 and 1990 censuses and 5-year survival after the AMI. Results: Patients with the highest cumulative income (adding the values of the quartile categories of income in 1975 and 1990) underwent a revascularization procedure within one month after their first AMI two to three times as often as patients with the lowest cumulative income and had half the risk of death within five years. The socioeconomic differences in the use of revascularization procedures could not be explained by differences in co-morbidity or type of hospital at first admission. Patients who underwent revascularization showed a similar lowered mortality risk in the different income groups...

‣ Cumulative exposure to poor housing affordability and its association with mental heatlh in men and women

Bentley, R.; Baker, E.; Mason, K.
Fonte: British Med Journal Publ Group Publicador: British Med Journal Publ Group
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica
Publicado em //2012 Português
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BACKGROUND: Poor housing affordability affects around 10% of the Australian population and is increasingly prevalent. The authors tested two hypotheses: that cumulative exposure to housing affordability stress (HAS) is associated with poorer mental health and that effects vary by gender. METHODS: The authors estimated the relationship between cumulative exposure to HAS and mental health among 15 478 participants in an Australian longitudinal survey between 2001 and 2009. Individuals were classified as being in HAS if household income was in the lowest 40% of the national distribution and housing costs exceeded 30% of income. Exposure to HAS ranged from 1 to 8 annual waves. Mental health was measured using the Short Form 36 Mental Component Summary(MCS) score. To test the extent to which any observed associations were explained by compositional factors, random-and fixed-effects models were estimated. RESULTS: In the random-effects models, mental health scores decreased with increasing cumulative exposure to HAS (up until 4+ years). This relationship differed by gender, with a stronger dose-response observed among men. The mean MCS score of men experiencing four to eight waves of housing stress was 2.02 points lower than men not in HAS (95% CI _3.89 to _0.16). In the fixed-effects models...

‣ Income-based life-course models of caries in 30-year-old Australian adults.

Brennan, D.S.; Spencer, A.J.
Fonte: Wiley Publicador: Wiley
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica
Publicado em //2015 Português
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OBJECTIVES: To assess income-based life-course models between the age of 13 and 30 years and caries in young adults. METHODS: In 1988-89, n = 7673 South Australian school children aged 13 years were sampled with n = 4604 children (60.0%) and n = 4476 parents (58.3%) returning questionnaires. In 2005-06, n = 632 baseline study participants aged 30 years responded (43.0% of those traced and living in Adelaide). Life-course models representing critical period, cumulative risk and social mobility were constructed using income tertiles at ages 13 and 30 years. Critical period was evaluated by comparing the low tertile with the middle and higher tertiles at age 13. Cumulative risk was evaluated by coding the low tertile as 2, the middle tertile as 1 and highest tertile as 0, and summing to produce a cumulative risk score categorized into lower (score 0-1), moderate (score of 2) and higher risk (scores 3-4). Social mobility was classified using tertiles into stable disadvantaged, downwardly mobile, stable middle income, upwardly mobile and stable advantaged. RESULTS: Models adjusting for sex, visiting and toothbrushing at age 30 showed no association between caries at age 30 and low income at age 13 years (critical period model). Compared to the low cumulative risk group based on income...

‣ Di Bao : A Guaranteed Minimum Income in China’s Cities?

Chen, Shaohua; Ravallion, Martin; Wang, Youjuan
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper; Publications & Research
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Concerns about incentives and targeting naturally arise when cash transfers are used to fight poverty. The authors address these concerns in the context of China's Di Bao program, which uses means-tested transfers to try to assure that no registered urban resident has an income below a stipulated poverty line. There is little sign in the data of poverty traps due to high benefit withdrawal rates. Targeting performance is excellent by various measures. Di Bao appears to be better targeted than any other program in the developing world. However, all but one measure of targeting performance is found to be uninformative, or even deceptive, about impacts on poverty. The authors find that the majority of the poor are not receiving help, even with a generous allowance for measurement errors. While on paper, Di Bao would eliminate urban poverty, it falls well short of that ideal in practice.

‣ Bangladesh, a Middle Income Country by 2021 : What Will it Take in Terms of Poverty Reduction?

Gimenez, Lea; Jolliffe, Dean; Sharif, Iffath
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Economic & Sector Work :: Poverty Assessment
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The vision 2021 plan and the associated perspective plan 2010-2021, adopted by the Government of Bangladesh lay out a series of development targets for 2021. Among the core targets identified to monitor the progress toward the vision 2021 objectives is that of attaining a poverty headcount of 14 percent by 2021. The purpose of this paper is to answer the following question: given Bangladesh's performance in poverty reduction over the last decades, can the author expect the proportion of the country's population living in poverty to be 14 percent by 2022? Using data from the last three household income and expenditures survey, we examine changes in poverty rates during 2000-2010, estimate net elasticity of poverty reduction to growth in per-capita expenditure, and then project poverty headcounts into the future. Our poverty projections based on the last three Household Income and Expenditure Surveys (HIES) surveys suggest that Bangladesh will achieve its Millennium Development Goal, or MDG goal of halving its poverty headcount to 28.5 percent by 2015 significantly ahead of schedule. Attaining the vision 2021 poverty target of 14 percent by 2021...

‣ Global Income Inequality by the Numbers : in History and Now

Milanovic, Branko
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper; Publications & Research
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The paper presents an overview of calculations of global inequality, recently and over the long-run as well as main controversies and political and philosophical implications of the findings. It focuses in particular on the winners and losers of the most recent episode of globalization, from 1988 to 2008. It suggests that the period might have witnessed the first decline in global inequality between world citizens since the Industrial Revolution. The decline however can be sustained only if countries' mean incomes continue to converge (as they have been doing during the past ten years) and if internal (within-country) inequalities, which are already high, are kept in check. Mean-income convergence would also reduce the huge "citizenship premium" that is enjoyed today by the citizens of rich countries.

‣ Global Poverty and Inequality : A Review of the Evidence

Ferreira, Francisco H.G.; Ravallion, Martin
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper; Publications & Research
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Drawing on a compilation of data from household surveys representing 130 countries, many over a period of 25 years, this paper reviews the evidence on levels and recent trends in global poverty and income inequality. It documents the negative correlations between both poverty and inequality indices, on the one hand, and mean income per capita on the other. It points to the dominant role of Asia in accounting for the bulk of the world's poverty reduction since 1981. The evolution of global inequality in the last decades is also described, with special emphasis on the different trends of inequality within and between countries. The statistical relationships between growth, inequality and poverty are discussed, as is the correlation between inequality and the growth elasticity of poverty reduction. Some of the recent literature on the drivers of distributional change in developing countries is also reviewed.

‣ Global Redistribution of Income

Bourguignon, François; Levin, Victoria; Rosenblatt, David
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper; Publications & Research
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The actual distribution of world income across countries is extremely unequal, much higher than the within country inequality faced by most countries. The question studied in this paper is: How do international policies on aid, trade, and factor movements affect the international distribution of income? To begin to answer this question, the authors calculate the impact by decile of the actual level of aid flows and the effect on potential income of merchandise trade restrictions by high-income countries. They find that aid's distributional impact is equality enhancing. While it is extremely small in terms of changes in standard inequality measures, it is of some importance for the lowest decile of the world's income distribution. The authors also find that some of this impact is counteracted by lost potential income in the lower deciles from merchandise trade barriers imposed by high-income countries. In brief, there is a contradiction in international policies where aid's equality-enhancing effect is somewhat offset by protectionism. They also discuss some of the analytical difficulties with extending this analysis of redistribution to other forms of international factor flows-more specifically, migrant worker and profit remittances. The analysis presented is partial and static and ignores within country distribution. As such...

‣ Hunting for Leopards : Long Run Country Income Dynamics in Africa

Arbache, Jorge Saba; Page, John
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper; Publications & Research
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This paper examines the country-level dynamics of long-run growth in Africa between 1975 and 2005. The authors examine how growth has affected mobility and the distribution of income among countries. They analyze changes in cross-country income structure and convergence, and look for evidence of the formation of country groups or "clubs." Using a novel method of breaking up the growth histories of African economies into medium-term spells of growth accelerations and declines, the authors investigate whether a group of African "leopards" - the regional equivalent of Asia's "tigers" - is beginning to emerge.