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‣ Changes in the distribution of income and the New Economic Model in Jamaica

Handa, Sudhanshu; King, Damien
Fonte: ECLAC Publicador: ECLAC
Português
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Includes bibliography; Introduction The last two decades have witnessed the implementation of liberal economic reforms throughout the developing world, but particularly in Latin American and the Caribbean. It is now a stylized fact of reform programs that income distribution worsens in the immediate aftermath of the implementation of such reforms (Cornia, et. al., 1987; Morley, 1995; Beccaria, 1998). In 11 of 14 Latin American countries included in his survey, Morely (1994) found that inequality had worsened in all but four of them during the 1980s when reform programs were implemented. In that regard, Jamaica has been a paradox. Handa and King (1997) date economic reform as taking place mostly since 1989. Throughout the 1990s, however, the income distribution has consistently narrowed, despite periods of both rising and falling poverty levels during this time. The decline in inequality in Jamaica is unusual for another reason as well. While economic growth may on occasion be accompanied by declining inequality, witness Brazil in the 1980s, the preponderance of evidence from the Latin American/Caribbean region suggests that inequality is strongly countercyclical (Psacharopolous, et al., 1997; Morley, 1994). During the 1980s, Argentina...

‣ Knowing, When You Do Not Know : Simulating the Poverty and Distributional Impacts of an Economic Crisis

Narayan, Ambar; Sánchez-Páramo, Carolina
Fonte: World Bank Publicador: World Bank
Português
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Economists have long sought to predict how macroeconomic shocks will affect individual welfare. Macroeconomic data and forecasts are easily available when crises strike. But policy action requires not only understanding the magnitude of a macro shock, but also identifying which households or individuals are being hurt by (or benefit from) the crisis. Moreover, in many cases, impacts on the ground might be already occurring as macro developments become known, while micro level evidence is still unavailable because of paucity of data. Because of these reasons, a comprehensive real-time understanding of how the aggregate changes will translate to impacts at the micro level remains elusive. This problem is particularly acute when dealing with developing countries where household data is sporadic or out of date. This volume outlines a more comprehensive approach to the problem, showcasing a micro simulation model, developed in response to demand from World Bank staff working in countries and country governments in the wake of the global financial crisis of 2008-09. During the growing catastrophe in a few industrialized countries...

‣ Assessing Poverty and Distributional Impacts of the Global Crisis in the Philippines : A Microsimulation Approach

Habib, Bilal; Narayan, Ambar; Olivieri, Sergio; Sanchez-Paramo, Carolina
Fonte: Banco Mundial Publicador: Banco Mundial
Português
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As the financial crisis has spread through the world, the lack of real-time data has made it difficult to track its impact in developing countries. This paper uses a micro-simulation approach to assess the poverty and distributional effects of the crisis in the Philippines. The authors find increases in both the level and the depth of aggregate poverty. Income shocks are relatively large in the middle part of the income distribution. They also find that characteristics of people who become poor because of the crisis are different from those of both chronically poor people and the general population. The findings can be useful for policy makers wishing to identify leading monitoring indicators to track the impact of macroeconomic shocks and to design policies that protect vulnerable groups.

‣ Distributions in Motion : Economic Growth, Inequality, and Poverty Dynamics

Ferreira, Francisco H.G.
Fonte: Banco Mundial Publicador: Banco Mundial
Português
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37.75147%
The joint determination of aggregate economic growth and distributional change has been studied empirically from at least three different perspectives. A macroeconomic approach that relies on cross-country data on poverty, inequality, and growth rates has generated some interesting stylized facts about the correlations between these variables, but has not shed much light on the underlying determinants. "Meso-" and microeconomic approaches have fared somewhat better. The microeconomic approach, in particular, builds on the observation that growth, changes in poverty, and changes in inequality are simply different aggregations of information on the incidence of economic growth along the income distribution. This paper reviews the evolution of attempts to understand the nature of growth incidence curves, from the statistical decompositions associated with generalizations of the Oaxaca-Blinder method, to more recent efforts to generate "economically consistent" counterfactuals, drawing on structural, reduced-form...

‣ Analyzing the Distributional Impact of Reforms : A Practitioner’s Guide to Pension, Health, Labor Markets, Public Sector Downsizing, Taxation, Decentralization, and Macroeconomic Modeling, Volume 2

Coudouel, Aline; Paternostro, Stefano
Fonte: Washington, DC: World Bank Publicador: Washington, DC: World Bank
Português
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37.816697%
The analysis of the distributional impact of policy reforms on the well-being or welfare of different stakeholder groups, particularly on the poor and vulnerable, has an important role in the elaboration and implementation of poverty reduction strategies in developing countries. In recent years this type of work has been labeled as Poverty and Social Impact Analysis (PSIA) and is increasingly implemented to promote evidence-based policy choices and foster debate on policy reform options.

‣ Accounting for Mexican Income Inequality during the 1990s

De Hoyos, Rafael E.
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Português
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The author implements several inequality decomposition methods to measure the extent to which total household income disparities can be attributable to sectoral asymmetries and differences in skill endowments. The results show that at least half of total household inequality in Mexico is attributable to incomes derived from entrepreneurial activities, an income source rarely scrutinized in the inequality literature. He shows that education (skills) endowments are unevenly distributed among the Mexican population, with positive shifts in the market returns to schooling associated with increases in inequality. Asymmetries in the allocation of education explain around 20 percent of overall household income disparities in Mexico during the 1990s. Moreover, the proportion of inequality attributable to education endowments increases during stable periods and reduces during the crisis. This pattern is explained by shifts in returns to schooling rather than changes in the distribution of skills. Applying the same techniques to decompose within-sector income differences...

‣ A Micro-Decomposition Analysis of the Macroeconomic Determinants of Human Development

Lambert, Sylvie; Ravallion, Martin; van de Walle, Dominique
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Português
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This paper shows how differences in aggregate human development outcomes over time and space can be additively decomposed into a pure economic-growth component, a component attributed to differences in the distribution of income, and components attributed to "non-income" factors and differences in the model linking outcomes to income or non-income characteristics. The income effect at the micro level is modeled non-parametrically, so as to flexibly reflect distributional changes. The paper illustrates the decomposition using data for Morocco and Vietnam, and the results offer some surprising insights into the observed aggregate gains in schooling attainments. A user friendly STATA program is available to implement the method in other settings.

‣ Measuring the Pro-Poorness of Income Growth within an Elasticity Framework

Essama-Nssah, B.; Lambert, Peter J.
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Português
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Poverty reduction has become a fundamental objective of development, and therefore a metric for assessing the effectiveness of various interventions. Economic growth can be a powerful instrument of income poverty reduction. This creates a need for meaningful ways of assessing the poverty impact of growth. This paper follows the elasticity approach to propose a measure of pro-poorness defined as a weighted average of the deviation of a growth pattern from the benchmark case. The measure can help assess pro-poorness both in terms of aggregate poverty measures, which are members of the additively separable class, and at percentiles. It also lends itself to a decomposition procedure, whereby the overall pattern of income growth can be unbundled, and the contributions of income components to overall pro-poorness identified. An application to data for Indonesia in the 1990s reveals that the amount of poverty reduction achieved over that period remains far below what would have been achieved under distributional neutrality. This conclusion is robust to the choice of a poverty measure among members of the additively separable class, and can be tracked back to changes in expenditure components.

‣ The Poverty and Distributional Impact of Macroeconomic Shocks and Policies : A Review of Modeling Approaches

Essama-Nssah, B.
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Português
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The importance of distributional issues in policymaking creates a need for empirical tools to assess the social impact of economic shocks and policies. This paper reviews some of the modeling approaches that are currently in use at the World Bank and other international financial institutions. The specification of these models is dictated by the issues at stake, the knowledge about the nature of the process involved, and the availability and reliability of relevant data. Furthermore, shocks and policies have macroeconomic, structural, and distributional implications. This creates interdependence between such policy issues. Finally, the distributional impact of shocks and policies hinges on the heterogeneity of socioeconomic agents with respect to endowments and behavior. In the end, each modeling approach should be judged on how well it handles the interdependence between policy issues and the heterogeneity of the stakeholders, given other constraints.

‣ Economic Growth and Equality of Opportunity

Peragine, Vito; Palmisano, Flaviana; Brunori, Paolo
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Português
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The paper proposes an approach to understand the relationship between inequality and economic growth obtained by shifting the analysis from the space of final achievements to the space of opportunities. To this end, it introduces a formal framework based on the concept of the Opportunity Growth Incidence Curve. This framework can be used to evaluate the income dynamics of specific groups of the population and to infer the role of growth in the evolution of inequality of opportunity over time. The paper shows the relevance of the introduced framework by providing two empirical analyses, one for Italy and the other for Brazil. These analyses show the distributional impact of the recent growth experienced by Brazil and the recent crisis suffered by Italy from both the income inequality and opportunity inequality perspectives.

‣ Decomposing Distributional Changes in Pakistan

Inchauste, Gabriela; Winkler, Hernan
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Português
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This paper quantifies the contributions to distributional changes observed in Pakistan over the last decade. In contrast to methods that focus on aggregate summary statistics, the method adopted in this paper generates entire counterfactual distributions to account for the contributions of demographics, labor and non-labor incomes in explaining poverty reduction. The results show that the most important contributor was the growth in income. Moreover, this growth in income seems to be driven by returns to individual and household endowments, pointing to productivity increases as the driving force behind poverty reduction. Lower dependency ratios, transfers and remittances also contributed to poverty reduction, albeit to a smaller extent. Growth in productivity, particularly between 2001-02 and 2005-06 is consistent with estimates from aggregate accounts, which points to productivity growth led by movements of labor force away from agriculture and into industry and services. If the objective is to reach similar or accelerated poverty reduction and productivity growth going forward...

‣ Understanding Changes in Poverty

Inchauste, Gabriela; Azevedo, João Pedro; Essama-Nssah, B.; Olivieri, Sergio; Van Nguyen, Trang; Saavedra-Chanduvi, Jaime; Winkler, Hernan
Fonte: World Bank Group, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank Group, Washington, DC
Português
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Understanding Changes in Poverty brings together different methods to decompose the contributions to poverty reduction. A simple approach quantifies the contribution of changes in demographics, employment, earnings, public transfers, and remittances to poverty reduction. A more complex approach quantifies the contributions to poverty reduction from changes in individual and household characteristics, including changes in the sectoral, occupational, and educational structure of the workforce, as well as changes in the returns to individual and household characteristics. Understanding Changes in Poverty implements these approaches and finds that labor income growth that is, growth in income per worker rather than an increase in the number of employed workers was the largest contributor to moderate poverty reduction in 21 countries experiencing substantial reductions in poverty over the past decade. Changes in demographics, public transfers, and remittances helped, but made relatively smaller contributions to poverty reduction. Further decompositions in three countries find that labor income grew mainly because of higher returns to human capital endowments...

‣ The developing world's bulging (but vulnerable) "middle class"

Ravallion, Martin
Fonte: Banco Mundial Publicador: Banco Mundial
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper
Português
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The "developing world's middle class" is defined here as those who are not poor when judged by the median poverty line of developing countries, but are still poor by US standards. The "Western middle class" is defined as those who are not poor by US standards. Although barely 80 million people in the developing world entered the Western middle class over 1990-2002, economic growth and distributional shifts allowed an extra 1.2 billion people to join the developing world's middle class. Four-fifths came from Asia, and half from China. Most of the new entrants remained fairly close to poverty, with incomes now bunched up just above $2 a day. The vulnerability of this new middle class to aggregate economic contractions is evident in the fact that one in six people in the developing world live between $2 and $3 per day. Over time, the developing world has become more sharply divided between countries with a large middle class and those with a relatively small one, with Africa prominent in the latter group. Poor people in countries with smaller middle classes may well be more exposed to slowing economic growth.

‣ Global Income Distribution and Poverty in the Absence of Agricultural Distortions

Bussolo, Maurizio; De Hoyos, Rafael; Medvedev, Denis
Fonte: Banco Mundial Publicador: Banco Mundial
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper
Português
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This paper assesses the potential impacts of the removal of agriculture trade distortions using a newly developed dataset and methodological approach for evaluating the global poverty and inequality effects of policy reforms. It finds that liberalization of agriculture and food could increase global extreme poverty (US$1 a day) by 0.2 percent and lower moderate poverty (US$2 a day) by 0.3 percent. Beneath these small aggregate changes, most countries witness a substantial reduction in poverty while South Asia-where half of the world's poor reside-experiences an increase in extreme poverty incidence due to high rates of protection afforded to unskilled-intensive agricultural sectors. The distributional changes are likely to be mild, but exhibit a strong regional pattern. Inequality is likely to fall in regions such as Latin America, which are characterized by high initial inequality, and rise in regions like South Asia, characterized by low initial inequality.

‣ Household Welfare Impacts of China's Accession to the World Trade Organization

Chen, Shaohua; Ravallion, Martin
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper; Publications & Research
Português
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The authors use China's national household surveys for rural and urban areas to measure and explain the welfare impacts of the changes in goods and factor prices attributed to WTO accession. Price changes are estimated separately using a general equilibrium model to capture both direct and indirect effects of the initial tariff changes. The welfare impacts are first-order approximations based on a household model incorporating own-production activities and are calibrated to the household-level data imposing minimum aggregation. The authors find negligible impacts on inequality and poverty in the aggregate. However, diverse impacts emerge across household types and regions associated with heterogeneity in consumption behavior and income sources, with possible implications for compensatory policy responses.

‣ Distributional Implications of Climate Change in India

Jacoby, Hanan; Rabassa, Mariano; Skoufias, Emmanuel
Fonte: Banco Mundial Publicador: Banco Mundial
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper
Português
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Global warming is expected to heavily impact agriculture, the dominant source of livelihood for the world's poor. Yet, little is known about the distributional implications of climate change at the sub-national level. Using a simple comparative statics framework, this paper analyzes how changes in the prices of land, labor, and food induced by modest temperature increases over the next three decades will affect household-level welfare in India. The authors predict a substantial fall in agricultural productivity, even allowing for farmer adaptation. Yet, this decline will not translate into a sharp drop in consumption for the majority of rural households, who derive their income largely from wage employment. Overall, the welfare costs of climate change fall disproportionately on the poor. This is true in urban as well as in rural areas, but, in the latter sector only after accounting for the effects of rising world cereal prices. Adaptation appears to primarily benefit the non-poor, since they own the lion's share of agricultural land. The results suggest that poverty in India will be roughly 3-4 percentage points higher after thirty years of rising temperatures than it would have been had this warming not occurred.

‣ Global Growth and Distribution : Are China and India Reshaping the World?

Bussolo, Maurizio; De Hoyos, Rafael E.; Medvedev, Denis; van der Mensbrugghe, Dominique
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper; Publications & Research
Português
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37.724307%
Over the past 20 years, aggregate measures of global inequality have changed little even if significant structural changes have been observed. High growth rates of China and India lifted millions out of poverty, while the stagnation in many African countries caused them to fall behind. Using the World Bank's LINKAGE global general equilibrium model and the newly developed Global Income Distribution Dynamics (GIDD) tool, this paper assesses the distribution and poverty effects of a scenario where these trends continue in the future. Even by anticipating a deceleration, growth in China and India is a key force behind the expected convergence of per-capita incomes at the global level. Millions of Chinese and Indian consumers will enter into a rapidly emerging global middle class-a group of people who can afford, and demand access to, the standards of living previously reserved mainly for the residents of developed countries. Notwithstanding these positive developments, fast growth is often characterized by high urbanization and growing demand for skills...

‣ Assessing the Distributional Impact of Public Policy

Essama-Nssah, B.
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper; Publications & Research
Português
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37.633345%
Economic development necessarily changes the welfare of socioeconomic groups to various degrees, depending on differences in their social arrangements. The challenge for policymakers is to select the changes that will be most socially desirable. The author demonstrates the usefulness of distributional analysis for social evaluation and, more specifically, for welfare evaluation, using data from the 1994 Integrated Household Survey in Guinea. Because the international community has declared poverty eradication a fundamental objective of development, the author uses a poverty-focused approach to social evaluation based on the maximum principle. This principle offers a unifying framework for analyzing the socioeconomic impact of public policy by using a wide variety of evaluation functions, inequality indicators (like the extended Gini coefficient), and poverty indices (such as Sen's index and the members of the Foster-Greer-Thorbecke family). The author also examines, within the context of commodity taxation, how to identify socially desirable policy options using both the dominance criterion and abbreviated social welfare functions. He includes computer routines for calculating various welfare indices and for plotting the relevant concentration curves.

‣ Analyzing the Distributional Impact of Reforms : A Practioner's Guide to Trade, Monetary and Exchange Rate Policy, Utility Provision, Agricultural Markets, Land Policy and Education, Volume 1

Coudouel, Aline; Paternostro, Stefano
Fonte: Washington, DC: World Bank Publicador: Washington, DC: World Bank
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Publication; Publications & Research :: Publication
Português
Relevância na Pesquisa
37.816697%
The analysis of the distributional impact of policy reforms on the well-being or welfare of different stakeholder groups, particularly on the poor and vulnerable, has an important role in the elaboration and implementation of poverty reduction strategies in developing countries. In recent years this type of work has been labeled as Poverty and Social Impact Analysis (PSIA) and is increasingly implemented to promote evidence-based policy choices and foster debate on policy reform options.

‣ Distributional changes in the gender wage gap

Kassenboehmer, Sonja C.; Sinning, Mathias
Fonte: Cornell University Press Publicador: Cornell University Press
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica
Português
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Using Panel Study of Income Dynamics (PSID) data, the authors analyze changes in wage differentials between white men and women over time and across the entire wage distribution. The authors decompose distributional changes in the gender wage gap to asses