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‣ Programas de descentralização de gastos públicos no sistema municipal de ensino fundamental de São Paulo; Decentralization programs of public spending in municipal elementary schools of São Paulo

Rocha, Vanderson Amadeu da
Fonte: Biblioteca Digitais de Teses e Dissertações da USP Publicador: Biblioteca Digitais de Teses e Dissertações da USP
Tipo: Dissertação de Mestrado Formato: application/pdf
Publicado em 14/03/2011 Português
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Nas últimas décadas diversas reformas no financiamento da educação foram realizadas no Brasil e no exterior, além da adoção de políticas públicas de transferências de recursos, almejando melhorar o desempenho dos alunos e a qualidade da educação. O objetivo deste trabalho é avaliar o impacto dos programas de descentralização de gasto público na educação, sobre a variação do desempenho obtido na Prova Brasil entre os anos de 2005 e 2007, pelas escolas públicas da rede de ensino fundamental da Prefeitura do Município de São Paulo. Analisamos o Programa Dinheiro Direto na Escola (PDDE), criado pelo governo federal em 1995, além do Programa de Transferência de Renda Financeira (PTRF), implantado no final de 2005 pela Prefeitura do Município de São Paulo. Esses programas transferem recursos financeiros diretamente para as escolas, que tem o poder de decidir como utilizar esses repasses. Os dois programas possuem múltiplos pontos de corte, conforme o número de matrículas, para efeito de determinação do valor das transferências de recursos. Em uma primeira abordagem, são calculadas as médias da variação da nota das escolas em torno dos pontos de corte. Para o PTRF são observadas melhores variações de nota...

‣ Electoral rules, political competition and fiscal spending: regression discontinuity evidence from brazilian municipalities

Chamon, Marcos; M. P. De Mello, João; Firpo, Sergio Pinheiro
Fonte: Fundação Getúlio Vargas Publicador: Fundação Getúlio Vargas
Tipo: Trabalho em Andamento
Português
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We exploit a discontinuity in Brazilian municipal election rules to investigate whether political competition has a causal impact on policy choices. In municipalities with less than 200,000 voters mayors are elected with a plurality of the vote. In municipalities with more than 200,000 voters a run-off election takes place among the top two candidates if neither achieves a majority of the votes. At a first stage, we show that the possibility of runoff increases political competition. At a second stage, we use the discontinuity as a source of exogenous variation to infer causality from political competition to fiscal policy. Our second stage results suggest that political competition induces more investment and less current spending, particularly personnel expenses. Furthermore, the impact of political competition is larger when incumbents can run for reelection, suggesting incentives matter insofar as incumbents can themselves remain in office.

‣ The impact of mayor leadership on education: evidence from Brazil

Barbosa, Mariana Carvalho
Fonte: Fundação Getúlio Vargas Publicador: Fundação Getúlio Vargas
Tipo: Dissertação
Português
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What are the impacts of female mayors on education? It is well known that in Brazil, like in many other countries around the globe, women are underrepresented in political posts. Understanding the impacts of this discrepancy on policy choice and redistribution across many areas of inquiry is, therefore, an important research endeavor. Extant literature shows a strong link between women and the economic development of the areas they govern, specifically that they provide public goods relevant to the needs of women constituents. However, despite the efforts to explore the impacts of gender political leaders, we still do not know what is the consequence of gender on policy outcomes. Exploring a rich dataset on Brazilian municipalities, I intend to enrich the literature on the role of female politicians on politics. I employ a regression discontinuity design using Brazilian elections and indicators on education based on the basic education development index (IDEB), education expenditures and local policies. I find that municipalities where a woman enters into power do not perform better on education and do not present more investments or policies to improve education.

‣ Ensaios sobre o seguro desemprego no Brasil : teorias e evidências

Teixeira, Gibran da Silva
Fonte: Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul Publicador: Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul
Tipo: Tese de Doutorado Formato: application/pdf
Português
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A presente tese de doutorado estuda duas questões referentes ao programa brasileiro de Seguro Desemprego: o impacto do benefício sobre o salário de reinserção dos trabalhadores beneficiados, bem como sobre o tempo de procura por emprego. No primeiro ensaio são apresentados alguns fatos estilizados referente ao problema de pesquisa, entre os quais destacam-se: i) Descrição Jurídica e os principais objetivos do Programa brasileiro de Seguro Desemprego; ii) O Status Quo do Programa Seguro Desemprego; iii) O Perfil do Trabalhador Beneficiado pelo Programa; iv) Salário de reinserção de trabalhadores contemplados e não contemplados pelo programa (2006-2009) com tempo de permanência no trabalho anterior entre um mês e onze meses; e v) Procura por emprego de trabalhadores contemplados e não contemplados pelo programa (2006-2010) com tempo de permanência no trabalho anterior entre um mês e onze meses. No segundo ensaio, avalia-se o impacto do benefício Seguro Desemprego sobre o salário de reinserção de seu público alvo, utilizando-se as Teorias de Job Search e do Capital Humano. Na estratégia empírica, utilizaram-se informações da Pesquisa Nacional por Amostra de Domicílio - PNAD no período de 2006 a 2009, bem como o método de regressão com descontinuidade. Os resultados indicaram que para o período avaliado...

‣ The Effect of Alcohol Consumption on Mortality: Regression Discontinuity Evidence from the Minimum Drinking Age†

Carpenter, Christopher; Dobkin, Carlos
Fonte: PubMed Publicador: PubMed
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica
Publicado em 01/01/2009 Português
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We estimate the effect of alcohol consumption on mortality using the minimum drinking age in a regression discontinuity design. We find large and immediate increases in drinking at age 21, including a 21 percent increase in recent drinking days. We also find a discrete 9 percent increase in the mortality rate at age 21, primarily due to motor vehicle accidents, alcohol-related deaths, and suicides. We estimate a 10 percent increase in the number of drinking days for young adults results in a 4.3 percent increase in mortality. Our results suggest policies that reduce drinking among young adults can have substantial public health benefits. (JEL I12, I18)

‣ The Effects of Early Grade Retention on Student Outcomes over Time: Regression Discontinuity Evidence from Florida

Schwerdt, Guido; West, Martin Raymond
Fonte: Harvard University Publicador: Harvard University
Tipo: Research Paper or Report
Português
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A growing number of American states and school districts require students to meet basic performance standards in core academic subjects at key transition points in order to be promoted to the next grade. We exploit a discontinuity in the probability of third grade retention under a Florida test-based promotion policy to study the causal effect of retention on student outcomes over time. Regression discontinuity estimates indicate large short-term gains in achievement among retained students and a sharp reduction in the probability of retention in subsequent years. The achievement gains from retention fade out gradually over time, however, and are statistically insignificant after six years. Despite this fade out, our results suggest that previous evidence that early retention leads to adverse academic outcomes is misleading due to unobserved differences between retained and promoted students. They also imply that the educational and opportunity costs associated with retaining a student in the early grades are substantially less than a full year of per pupil spending and foregone earnings.

‣ Regression Discontinuity Designs in Epidemiology: Causal Inference Without Randomized Trials

Bor, Jacob; Moscoe, Ellen; Mutevedzi, Portia; Newell, Marie-Louise; Bärnighausen, Till
Fonte: Lippincott Williams & Wilkins Publicador: Lippincott Williams & Wilkins
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica
Português
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When patients receive an intervention based on whether they score below or above some threshold value on a continuously measured random variable, the intervention will be randomly assigned for patients close to the threshold. The regression discontinuity design exploits this fact to estimate causal treatment effects. In spite of its recent proliferation in economics, the regression discontinuity design has not been widely adopted in epidemiology. We describe regression discontinuity, its implementation, and the assumptions required for causal inference. We show that regression discontinuity is generalizable to the survival and nonlinear models that are mainstays of epidemiologic analysis. We then present an application of regression discontinuity to the much-debated epidemiologic question of when to start HIV patients on antiretroviral therapy. Using data from a large South African cohort (2007–2011), we estimate the causal effect of early versus deferred treatment eligibility on mortality. Patients whose first CD4 count was just below the 200 cells/μL CD4 count threshold had a 35% lower hazard of death (hazard ratio = 0.65 [95% confidence interval = 0.45–0.94]) than patients presenting with CD4 counts just above the threshold. We close by discussing the strengths and limitations of regression discontinuity designs for epidemiology.

‣ L’arbre de régression multivariable et les modèles linéaires généralisés revisités : applications à l’étude de la diversité bêta et à l’estimation de la biomasse d’arbres tropicaux

Ouellette, Marie-Hélène
Fonte: Université de Montréal Publicador: Université de Montréal
Tipo: Thèse ou Mémoire numérique / Electronic Thesis or Dissertation
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En écologie, dans le cadre par exemple d’études des services fournis par les écosystèmes, les modélisations descriptive, explicative et prédictive ont toutes trois leur place distincte. Certaines situations bien précises requièrent soit l’un soit l’autre de ces types de modélisation ; le bon choix s’impose afin de pouvoir faire du modèle un usage conforme aux objectifs de l’étude. Dans le cadre de ce travail, nous explorons dans un premier temps le pouvoir explicatif de l’arbre de régression multivariable (ARM). Cette méthode de modélisation est basée sur un algorithme récursif de bipartition et une méthode de rééchantillonage permettant l’élagage du modèle final, qui est un arbre, afin d’obtenir le modèle produisant les meilleures prédictions. Cette analyse asymétrique à deux tableaux permet l’obtention de groupes homogènes d’objets du tableau réponse, les divisions entre les groupes correspondant à des points de coupure des variables du tableau explicatif marquant les changements les plus abrupts de la réponse. Nous démontrons qu’afin de calculer le pouvoir explicatif de l’ARM, on doit définir un coefficient de détermination ajusté dans lequel les degrés de liberté du modèle sont estimés à l’aide d’un algorithme. Cette estimation du coefficient de détermination de la population est pratiquement non biaisée. Puisque l’ARM sous-tend des prémisses de discontinuité alors que l’analyse canonique de redondance (ACR) modélise des gradients linéaires continus...

‣ Essays in labor and public economics

Béland, Louis-Philippe
Fonte: Université de Montréal Publicador: Université de Montréal
Tipo: Thèse ou Mémoire numérique / Electronic Thesis or Dissertation
Português
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Dans ma thèse, je me sers de modèles de recherche solides pour répondre à des questions importantes de politique publique. Mon premier chapitre évalue l’impact causal de l’allégeance partisane (républicain ou démocrate) des gouverneurs américains sur le marché du travail. Dans ce chapitre, je combine les élections des gouverneurs avec les données du March CPS pour les années fiscales 1977 à 2008. En utilisant un modèle de régression par discontinuité, je trouve que les gouverneurs démocrates sont associés à de plus faibles revenus individuels moyens. Je mets en évidence que cela est entrainée par un changement dans la composition de la main-d’oeuvre à la suite d’une augmentation de l’emploi des travailleurs à revenus faibles et moyens. Je trouve que les gouverneurs démocrates provoquent une augmentation de l’emploi des noirs et de leurs heures travaillées. Ces résultats conduisent à une réduction de l’écart salarial entre les travailleurs noir et blanc. Mon deuxième chapitre étudie l’impact causal des fusillades qui se produisent dans les écoles secondaires américaines sur les performances des éléves et les résultats des écoles tels que les effectifs et le nombre d’enseignants recruté...

‣ Compensatory advantage as a mechanism of educational inequality : a regression discontinuity based on month of birth

BERNARDI, Fabrizio
Fonte: Sage Publications Inc Publicador: Sage Publications Inc
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica
Português
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Compensatory advantage is a mechanism of social stratification that complements cumulative advantage and path dependence. In this article, I first discuss the theoretical foundations of the compensatory advantage and path dependence mechanisms and the methodological challenges that complicate identification of their effects. Next, I present a practical demonstration of the use of the compensatory advantage theoretical framework, with a regression discontinuity design estimating the probability of being continuously promoted throughout primary education in France. Results indicate that students born just before the cutoff date for primary school entry, who are consequently the youngest in the class when starting school, face a larger risk of grade repetition. In line with theoretical predictions of the compensatory advantage model, the risk is much smaller for students born to highly educated parents compared to students whose parents have lower educational attainment.

‣ Descontinuidade política, rotatividade de diretores e desempenho dos alunos: efeitos adversos de novos prefeitos na educação municipal; Political discontinuity, principals\' turnover and students development: adverse effects of new mayors on municipalities\' education

Miranda, Jéssica Gagete
Fonte: Biblioteca Digitais de Teses e Dissertações da USP Publicador: Biblioteca Digitais de Teses e Dissertações da USP
Tipo: Dissertação de Mestrado Formato: application/pdf
Publicado em 14/07/2015 Português
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O presente estudo investiga o impacto da rotatividade dos diretores de escolas públicas municipais sobre o desempenho educacional de um município. Para tanto, foi utilizada uma metodologia de regressão descontínua, onde exploramos a alta correlação entre descontinuidade política no município (isto é, a troca do prefeito governante) e rotatividade dos diretores naquela localidade. Como resultados, encontramos que a rotatividade dos diretores tem um impacto negativo sobre o desempenho dos alunos, especialmente sobre o crescimento do IDEB de 2007 a 2009, que chega a ser 2.60 p.p. menor em cidades de alta rotatividade (ou seja, de 78%, valor igual a média das cidades que experimentaram descontinuidade política). Investigando os mecanismos de transmissão através dos quais esse impacto ocorre, verificamos que os diretores apontados pelos novos prefeitos são menos experientes no cargo de gestor escolar. Além disso, aqueles que cedem seus lugares aos novos diretores tinham, por vezes, um tempo longo de casa nas escolas, sendo que sua saída pode ter gerado maiores instabilidades.; The present study investigates the impact of principals\' turnover in Brazilian public schools on the municipalities\' educational performance. In order to perform such investigation...

‣ A Bayesian Nonparametric Causal Model for Regression Discontinuity Designs

Karabatsos, George; Walker, Stephen G.
Fonte: Universidade Cornell Publicador: Universidade Cornell
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica
Português
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For non-randomized studies, the regression discontinuity design (RDD) can be used to identify and estimate causal effects from a "locally-randomized" subgroup of subjects, under relatively mild conditions. However, current models focus causal inferences on the impact of the treatment (versus non-treatment) variable on the mean of the dependent variable, via linear regression. For RDDs, we propose a flexible Bayesian nonparametric regression model that can provide accurate estimates of causal effects, in terms of the predictive mean, variance, quantile, probability density, distribution function, or any other chosen function of the outcome variable. We illustrate the model through the analysis of two real educational data sets, involving (resp.) a sharp RDD and a fuzzy RDD.; Comment: 3 figures

‣ A Bayesian Nonparametric Hypothesis Testing Approach for Regression Discontinuity Designs

Karabatsos, George; Walker, Stephen G.
Fonte: Universidade Cornell Publicador: Universidade Cornell
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica
Publicado em 08/02/2014 Português
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The regression discontinuity (RD) design is a popular approach to causal inference in non-randomized studies. This is because it can be used to identify and estimate causal effects under mild conditions. Specifically, for each subject, the RD design assigns a treatment or non-treatment, depending on whether or not an observed value of an assignment variable exceeds a fixed and known cutoff value. In this paper, we propose a Bayesian nonparametric regression modeling approach to RD designs, which exploits a local randomization feature. In this approach, the assignment variable is treated as a covariate, and a scalar-valued confounding variable is treated as a dependent variable (which may be a multivariate confounder score). Then, over the model's posterior distribution of locally-randomized subjects that cluster around the cutoff of the assignment variable, inference for causal effects are made within this random cluster, via two-group statistical comparisons of treatment outcomes and non-treatment outcomes. We illustrate the Bayesian nonparametric approach through the analysis of a real educational data set, to investigate the causal link between basic skills and teaching ability.

‣ Provable Smoothing Approach in High Dimensional Generalized Regression Model

Han, Fang; Wang, Honglang
Fonte: Universidade Cornell Publicador: Universidade Cornell
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica
Português
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The generalized regression model is an important semiparametric generalization to the linear regression model. It assumes there exist unknown monotone increasing link functions connecting the response $Y$ to a single index $X^T\beta^*$ of explanatory variables $X\in\mathbb{R}^d$. The generalized regression model covers a lot of well-exploited statistical models. It is appealing in many applications where regression models are regularly employed. In low dimensions, rank-based M-estimators are recommended, giving root-$n$ consistent estimators of $\beta^*$. However, their applications to high dimensional data are questionable. This is mainly due to the discontinuity of the loss function $\hat{L}(\cdot)$: (i) computationally, because of $\hat{L}(\cdot)$'s non-smoothness, the optimization problem is intractable; (ii) theoretically, the discontinuity of $\hat{L}(\cdot)$ renders difficulty for analysis in high dimensions. In contrast, this paper suggests a simple, yet powerful, smoothing approach for rank-based estimators. A family of smoothing functions is provided, and the amount of smoothing necessary for efficient inference is carefully calculated. We show the resulting estimators are scaling optimal, i.e., they are consistent estimators of $\beta^*$ as long as $(n...

‣ Simultaneous Selection of Optimal Bandwidths for the Sharp Regression Discontinuity Estimator

Arai, Yoichi; Ichimura, Hidehiko
Fonte: Universidade Cornell Publicador: Universidade Cornell
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica
Português
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A new bandwidth selection rule that uses different bandwidths for the local linear regression estimators on the left and the right of the cut-off point is proposed for the sharp regression discontinuity estimator of the mean program impact at the cut-off point. The asymptotic mean squared error of the estimator using the proposed bandwidth selection rule is shown to be smaller than other bandwidth selection rules proposed in the literature. An extensive simulation study shows that the proposed method's performances for the sample sizes 500, 2000, and 5000 closely match the theoretical predictions.

‣ Optimal inference in a class of regression models

Armstrong, Timothy B.; Kolesár, Michal
Fonte: Universidade Cornell Publicador: Universidade Cornell
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica
Publicado em 18/11/2015 Português
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We consider the problem of constructing confidence intervals (CIs) for a linear functional of a regression function, such as its value at a point, the regression discontinuity parameter, or a regression coefficient in a linear or partly linear regression. Our main assumption is that the regression function is known to lie in a convex function class, which covers most smoothness and/or shape assumptions used in econometrics. We derive finite-sample optimal CIs and sharp efficiency bounds under normal errors with known variance. We show that these results translate to uniform (over the function class) asymptotic results when the error distribution is not known. When the function class is centrosymmetric, these efficiency bounds imply that minimax CIs are close to efficient at smooth regression functions. This implies, in particular, that it is impossible to form CIs that are tighter using data-dependent tuning parameters, and maintain coverage over the whole function class. We specialize our results to inference in a linear regression, and inference on the regression discontinuity parameter, and illustrate them in an empirical application.; Comment: 54 pages plus supplementary materials

‣ Valuing school quality using boundary discontinuity

Gibbons, Stephen; Machin, Stephen; Silva, Olmo
Fonte: Elsevier Publicador: Elsevier
Tipo: Article; PeerReviewed Formato: application/pdf
Publicado em 16/11/2013 Português
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Existing research shows that house prices respond to local school quality as measured by average test scores. However, higher test scores could signal better quality teaching and academic value-added, or higher ability, sought-after intakes. In our research, we show decisively that value-added drives households' demand for good schooling. However, prior achievement - linked to the background of children in school - also matters. In order to identify these effects, we improve the boundary discontinuity regression methodology by matching identical properties across admissions authority boundaries; by allowing for boundary effects and spatial trends; by re-weighting our data towards transactions that are closest to district boundaries; by eliminating boundaries that coincide with major geographical features; and by submitting our estimates to a number of novel falsification tests. Our results survive this battery of experiments and show that a one-standard deviation change in either school average value-added or prior achievement raises prices by around 3%.

‣ To leave or not to leave?: a regression discontinuity analysis of the impact of failing high school exit exam

Ou, Dongshu
Fonte: Centre for the Economics of Education, London School of Economics and Political Science Publicador: Centre for the Economics of Education, London School of Economics and Political Science
Tipo: Monograph; NonPeerReviewed Formato: application/pdf
Publicado em /08/2009 Português
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The high school exit exam (HSEE) is rapidly becoming a standardized assessment procedure for educational accountability in the United States. I use a unique state-specific dataset to identify the effect of failing the HSEE on the likelihood that a student drops out early based on a Regression Discontinuity design. It shows that students who barely fail the exam are more likely to exit than those who barely pass despite being offered retest opportunities. The discontinuity amounts to a large proportion of the dropout probability of barely-failers, particularly for minority and low-income students, suggesting that the potential benefit of raising educational standards might come at the cost of increasing inequalities in the educational system.

‣ To leave or not to leave? A regression discontinuity analysis of the impact of failing the High School exit exam

Ou, Dongshu
Fonte: Centre for Economic Performance, London School of Economics and Political Science Publicador: Centre for Economic Performance, London School of Economics and Political Science
Tipo: Monograph; NonPeerReviewed Formato: application/pdf
Publicado em //2009 Português
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The high school exit exam (HSEE) is rapidly becoming a standardized assessment procedure for educational accountability in the United States. I use a unique state-specific dataset to identify the effect of failing the HSEE on the likelihood that a student drops out early based on a Regression Discontinuity design. It shows that students who barely fail the exam are more likely to exit than those who barely pass despite being offered retest opportunities. The discontinuity amounts to a large proportion of the dropout probability of barely-failers, particularly for minority and low-income students, suggesting that the potential benefit of raising educational standards might come at the cost of increasing inequalities in the educational system.

‣ Empirical likelihood for regression discontinuity design

Otsu, Taisuke; Matsushita, Yukitoshi; Xu, Ke-Li
Fonte: The London School of Economics and Political Science, Suntory and Toyota International Centres for Economics and Related Disciplines Publicador: The London School of Economics and Political Science, Suntory and Toyota International Centres for Economics and Related Disciplines
Tipo: Monograph; NonPeerReviewed Formato: application/pdf
Publicado em /02/2014 Português
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This paper proposes empirical likelihood based inference methods for causal effects identified from regression discontinuity designs. We consider both the sharp and fuzzy regression discontinuity designs and treat the regression functions as nonparametric. The proposed inference procedures do not require asymptotic variance estimation and the confidence sets have natural shapes, unlike the conventional Wald-type method. These features are illustrated by simulations and an empirical example which evaluates the effect of class size on pupils’ scholastic achievements. Furthermore, for the sharp regression discontinuity design, we show that the empirical likelihood statistic admits a higher-order refinement, so-called the Bartlett correction. Bandwidth selection methods are also discussed.