O objetivo desta tese é expor, avaliar e aplicar a abordagem metodológica do realismo crítico para a ciência econômica. O realismo crítico em economia propõe-se como uma alternativa os pólos do falseacionismo popperiano e ao relativismo das abordagens construtivistas. O ponto a ressaltar é que o realismo crítico dá precedência às questões ontológicas (a natureza do que existe na realidade econômica e das práticas científicas) sobre as questões epistemológicas (o status das diversas teorias como veículos do conhecimento aceito). Ao defender que o método de investigação ou inferência deve ser adequado ao objeto de análise (que neste caso é algum item da realidade sócio-econômica), o realismo crítico aponta diversas razões para o insucesso das teorias econômicas ortodoxas como instrumentos de previsão e controle dessa realidade. Ao supor uma realidade social que é complexa, diferenciada, estruturada, sistêmica, aberta, sempre em mudança e radicalmente incerta, além de internamente relacionada, essa abordagem coloca-se também como um fundamento metodológico para as correntes heterodoxas em economia. Após discutir o conteúdo dessa abordagem, bem como a concepção ontológica particular sobre a qual é sustentada...

Artigo sobre o estado da arte do problema da indução: como justificar a conclusão de que ‘todos os Fs são Gs’ a partir da premissa de que ‘todos os Fs observados são Gs’. Análise e discussão das teorias mais salientes na literatura filosófica contemporânea, tais como: indutivismo, fiabilismo, perspectiva das leis da natureza, racionalismo, falsificacionismo, teoria material da indução e abordagens probabilísticas, segundo Carnap, Reichenbach e o bayesianismo. No final, discute-se o novo problema da indução de Goodman, levantado pelo predicado verdul.; Abstract: State of the art paper on the problem of induction: how to justif y the conclusion that ‘all F s are G s’ from the premise that ‘all observed F s are G s’. The most prominent theories of contemporary philosophic al literature are discussed and analysed, such as: inductivis m, reliabilism, perspective of laws of nature, rationalism, falsificationism , the ma- terial theory of induction and probabilistic approaches, ac cording to Carnap, Reichenbach and Bayesianism. In the end, we discuss t he new problem of induction of Goodman, raised by the grue predicate.

In this essay, I argue that someone who adopted a falsificationism of the sort that I have attributed to Nietzsche would be attracted to the doctrine of eternal recurrence. For Nietzsche, to think the becoming revealed through the senses means falsifying it through being. But the eternal recurrence offers the possibility of thinking becoming without falsification. I then argue that someone who held Nietzsche's falsificationism would see in human agency a conflict between being and becoming similar to that in empirical judgment. In the light of this conflict only the eternal recurrence would offer the possibility of truly affirming life. I end by discussing how this reading of the eternal recurrence solves a number of puzzles that have bedeviled interpreters.

Destacando o comportamento dos indivíduos como o aspecto metodológico central na construção teórica de uma ciência social, o escopo deste estudo é definir as diferentes percepções acerca da racionalidade econômica entre o mainstream, aqui representado pela Economia Neoclássica, e a perspectiva evolucionária, por meio da Economia Institucional-evolucionária. Para tanto é necessário atentarmos à importância da legitimidade do conhecimento, o que torna indispensável a análise do desenvolvimento da filosofia da ciência com vistas ao método a ser utilizado na ciência econômica: do indutivismo até o falsificacionismo de Popper e a mudança de foco de Kuhn e Lakatos. Assim sendo, a noção de evolução ganha terreno no domínio científico e sinaliza que a razão humana é histórica, isto é, social e culturalmente determinada.; Emphasizing the behavior of individuals as the central methodological aspect in the theoretical construction of a social science, the aims of this study is to define the different perceptions about the economic rationality of the mainstream, here represented by Neoclassical Economics, and evolutionary perspective, through the Institutional Economics-evolutionary. For this one must to pay attention the significance of the legitimacy of knowledge...

The argument from naturalness is widely employed in contemporary quantum field theory. Essentially a formalized aesthetic criterion, it received a meaning in the debate on the Higgs mechanism, which goes beyond aesthetics. We follow the history of technical definitions of fine tuning at the scale of electroweak symmetry breaking. It is argued that they give rise to a special interpretation of probability, which we call Gedankenfrequency. By extension of its original meaning, the argument from naturalness is used to compare different models beyond the Standard Model. We show that in this case naturalness cannot be defined objectively. Rather, it functions as socio-historical heuristics in particle physics and it contributes to the advent of a probabilistic version of Popper's falsificationism.; Comment: 22 pages, 2 figures

Multiverse scenarios in cosmology assume that other universes exist "beyond" our own universe. They are an exciting challenge both for empirical and theoretical research as well as for philosophy of science. They could be necessary to understand why the big bang occurred, why (some of) the laws of nature and the values of certain physical constants are the way they are, and why there is an arrow of time. This essay clarifies competing notions of "universe" and "multiverse"; it proposes a classification of different multiverse types according to various aspects how the universes are or are not separated from each other; it reviews the main reasons for assuming the existence of other universes: empirical evidence, theoretical explanation, and philosophical arguments; and, finally, it argues that some attempts to criticize multiverse scenarios as "unscientific", insisting on a narrow understanding of falsification, is neither appropriate nor convincing from a philosophy of science point of view. -- Keywords: big bang, universe, multiverse, cosmic inflation, time, quantum gravity, string theory, laws of nature, physical constants, fine-tuning, anthropic principle, philosophy of science, metaphysics, falsificationism; Comment: 14 pages...

In this paper I argue that aim-oriented empiricism (AOE), a conception of natural science that I have defended at some length elsewhere, is a kind of synthesis of the views of Popper, Kuhn and Lakatos, but is also an improvement over the views of all three. Whereas Popper's falsificationism protects metaphysical assumptions implicitly made by science from criticism, AOE exposes all such assumptions to sustained criticism, and furthermore focuses criticism on those assumptions most likely to need revision if science is to make progress. Even though AOE is, in this way, more Popperian than Popper, it is also, in some respects, more like the views of Kuhn and Lakatos than falsificationism is. AOE is able, however, to solve problems which Kuhn's and Lakatos's views cannot solve.; Comment: 1 figure

Testing hypotheses is an issue of primary importance in the scientific research, as well as in many other human activities. Much clarification about it can be achieved if the process of learning from data is framed in a stochastic model of causes and effects. Formulated with Poincare's words, the "essential problem of the experimental method" becomes then solving a "problem in the probability of causes", i.e. ranking the several hypotheses, that might be responsible for the observations, in credibility. This probabilistic approach to the problem (nowadays known as the Bayesian approach) differs from the standard (i.e. frequentistic) statistical methods of hypothesis tests. The latter methods might be seen as practical attempts of implementing the ideal of falsificationism, that can itself be viewed as an extension of the proof by contradiction of the classical logic to the experimental method. Some criticisms concerning conceptual as well as practical aspects of na\"\i ve falsificationism and conventional, frequentistic hypothesis tests are presented, and the alternative, probabilistic approach is outlined.; Comment: 17 pages, 4 figures (V2 fixes some typos and adds a reference). Invited talk at the 2004 Vulcano Workshop on Frontier Objects in Astrophysics and Particle Physics...

Neste artigo, algumas questões epistemológicas, ontológicas e sociológicas concernentes à significância estatística de hipóteses precisas na pesquisa científica são investigadas dentro do arcabouço fornecido pelo construtivismo cognitivo e do FBST - o teste completo de significância bayesiana. O arcabouço construtivista é contrastado com o da teoria da decisão e o do falsificacionismo, os cenários epistemológicos tradicionais para a estatística bayesiana ortodoxa e para a estatística freqüentista.; In this paper, some epistemological, ontological, and sociological issues are investigated, concerning the statistical significance of sharp hypotheses in scientific research, within the framework offered by cognitive constructivism and FBST - the full Bayesian significance test. The constructivist framework is contrasted to those furnished by decision theory and falsificationism, the traditional epistemological approaches to orthodox Bayesian statistics and to frequentist statistics.

O problema da predição racional, lançado por Wesley Salmon, é sem dúvida o calcanhar de Aquiles do método crítico preconizado por Popper. Neste artigo, avalio a resposta que tanto Popper quanto o popperiano Alan Musgrave deram a este problema. Ambas as respostas são inadequadas e, assim, a conclusão de Salmon é reforçada: sem apelar à indução, não há como fazer da predição prática uma ação racional. Além disso, o método crítico precisa ser vindicado se se pretende que a sua aplicação seja adequada para a preferência de hipóteses. Argumento que a natureza desta vindicação é tal que ela também pode ser aplicada à indução. Assim, ser um popperiano é uma boa razão para ser também um indutivista. Abstract:The problem of rational prediction, launched by Wesley Salmon, is without doubt the Achilles heel of the critical method defended by Popper. In this paper, I assess the response given both by Popper and by the popperian Alan Musgrave to this problem. Both responses are inadequate and thus the conclusion of Salmon is reinforced: without appeal to induction, there is no way to make of the practical prediction a rational action.Furthermore, the critical method needs to be vindicated if one pretends that its application be suitable for the preference of hypothesis.I argue that the nature of this vindication is such that it may be applied also to induction. Thus...

http://dx.doi.org/10.5007/1808-1711.2014v18n1p1In this paper I will discuss the rationality of reasoning about the future. There are two things that we might like to know about the future: which hypotheses are true and what will happen next. To put it in philosophical language, I aim to show that there are methods by which inferring to a generalization (selecting a hypothesis) and inferring to the next instance (singular predictive inference) can be shown to be normative and the method itself shown to be rational, where this is due in part to being based on evidence (although not in the same way) and in part on a prior rational choice. I will also argue that these two inferences have been confused, being distinct not only conceptually (as nobody disputes) but also in their results (the value given to the probability of the hypothesis being not in general that given to the next instance) and that methods that are adequate for one are not by themselves adequate for the other. A number of debates over method founder on this confusion and do not show what the debaters think they show.; http://dx.doi.org/10.5007/1808-1711.2014v18n1p1Neste artigo discutirei a racionalidade do raciocínio sobre o futuro. Há duas coisas que gostaríamos de saber acerca do futuro: quais hipóteses são verdadeiras e o que vai acontecer em seguida. Para colocar em linguagem filosófica...

This paper reviews the various aspects of chlorine compounds in the stratosphere, both their roles as reactants and as tracers of dynamical processes. In the stratosphere, reactive chlorine is released from chlorofluorocarbons and other chlorine-containing organic source gases. To a large extent reactive chlorine is then sequestered in reservoir species ClONO2 and HCl. Re-activation of chlorine happens predominantly in polar winter vortices by heterogeneous reaction in combination with sunlight. Catalytic cycles involving Cl, ClO, BrO, Cl2O2, ClO2 and others like NO, NO2, OH, and HO2 remove odd oxygen (ozone and atomic oxygen) from the atmosphere. Under an ozone hole condition, the ClO dimer cycle is particularly important, while in mid-latitudes the short-lived reservoir HOCl has some importance. Solar proton events can also affect stratospheric chlorine chemistry, but whether solar protons effectively activate or deactivate chlorine was shown to depend on illumination conditions. The lifetime of chlorofluorocarbons has an impact on the availability of ozone destructing substances in the stratosphere and depends on the Brewer-Dobson circulation which controls at which altitudes and how long an air parcel is exposed to photochemistry. In turn...

Charges leveled against Evolutionary Theory by Natural Selection (ETNS) of not being falsifiable are not adequately answered, not to mention dispelled, by exhibiting any amount of empirical evidence. Immunity to falsification means that ETNS can assimilate any possible data as a favorable case, and therefore empirical evidence cannot affect ETNS’s truth value. As a consequence, any attempt to provide an answer to such charges can only dwell at a philosophical level of analysis, whereas assessing the quality and quantity of the evidence supporting ETNS (whether such evidence comes from systematics, ecology, ethology, physiology or molecular genetics) belongs in the scientific level. Since ETNS is a central element for the intelligibility of biological science, it is of fundamental importance to pay attention to the philosophical arguments that counsel to mitigate the role of falsifiability as a criterion for good science. The relevant criteria should take into account both that factual theories need empirical content and that historical disciplines should be part of science. The consequences of those arguments for research practice in evolutionary ecology were previously assessed (Marone et al., 2002). Sadly, our attempt was misunderstood by Néspolo (2003)...

A contribuição metodológica de Popper se estende para a aplicação do seu método crítico nas práticas científicas e sociais, ou seja, vai além do falsificacionismo e do diálogo socrático como mostrado nas diferentes interpretações dos metodólogos da economia. Com o objetivo de descrever a prática científica e social de Popper, como resultado de sua ênfase na busca e no crescimento do conhecimento, e investigar se existe alguma analogia entre ela e a lógica da situação na economia, este artigo apresenta: i) a prática científico-social popperiana na forma da análise situacional (seção 1), ii) as discussões de alguns críticos e comentadores que identificam problemas na proposta de Popper (seção 2), iii) argumentos sobre a análise situacional de Popper e a lógica da situação na economia (seção 3) e iv) as considerações finais.Abstract Popper’s methodological contribution could be extended in order to include the use of his critical method in social and scientific practices, that is, it is not related only to falsificationism and socratic dialogue as it has been presented by different economic methodologists. With the aim of describing Popper’s social and scientific practice, as a result of his emphasis on search and growth of knowledge...