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## ‣ Estimation of the agricultural probability of loss: evidence for soybean in Paraná state

Fonte: Sociedade Brasileira de Economia e Sociologia Rural
Publicador: Sociedade Brasileira de Economia e Sociologia Rural

Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica
Formato: text/html

Publicado em 01/03/2014
Português

Relevância na Pesquisa
36.22934%

In any agricultural insurance program, the accurate quantification of the probability of the loss has great importance. In order to estimate this quantity, it is necessary to assume some parametric probability distribution. The objective of this work is to estimate the probability of loss using the theory of the extreme values modeling the left tail of the distribution. After that, the estimated values will be compared to the values estimated under the normality assumption. Finally, we discuss the implications of assuming a symmetrical distribution instead of a more flexible family of distributions when estimating the probability of loss and pricing the insurance contracts. Results show that, for the selected regions, the probability distributions present a relative degree of skewness. As a consequence, the probability of loss is quite different from those estimated supposing the Normal distribution, commonly used by Brazilian insurers.

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## ‣ U.S. Naval Officer accession sources: promotion probability and evaluation of cost; U.S. Naval Officer accession sources: promotion probability and evaluation of cost

Fonte: Monterey, California: Naval Postgraduate School
Publicador: Monterey, California: Naval Postgraduate School

Tipo: Tese de Doutorado

Português

Relevância na Pesquisa
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#naval officer accession#promotion#probability#cost#naval officer accession#promotion#probability#cost

Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited; This thesis explores the promotion probability to lieutenant commander (O-4) and commander (O-5) of major naval officer accession sources. This is important because there have been few studies to analyze the possible correlation of promotion relating to accession source and cost effectiveness. I used multivariate regression to examine the possibility of promotion of naval officers from the United States Naval Academy (USNA), Naval Reserve Officer Training Corps, and Officer Candidate School (OCS) who commissioned between fiscal years 1990 and 2000. My results showed OCS officers, on average, had a higher probability of promotion to O-4 and USNA officers, on average, had a higher probability of promotion to O-5. My regression also showed officers with graduate degrees, on average, had an increased probability of promotion in comparison to those who did not. OCS officer accessions had lower marginal costs due to shortened training timelines and post-commissioning training costs were similar for all three sources.; This thesis explores the promotion probability to lieutenant commander (O-4) and commander (O-5) of major naval officer accession sources. This is important because there have been few studies to analyze the possible correlation of promotion relating to accession source and cost effectiveness. I used multivariate regression to examine the possibility of promotion of naval officers from the United States Naval Academy (USNA)...

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## ‣ Risk communication in genetic counselling - A discursive approach to probability

Fonte: Sage Publications Ltd
Publicador: Sage Publications Ltd

Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica

Publicado em //2006
Português

Relevância na Pesquisa
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#cancer genetics#discourse analysis#genetic counselling#ontological frameworks#probability#propensities#risk#risk communication

This paper argues for and demonstrates a language-based treatment of probability. The study was motivated by an observation that there is ambiguity in the use of probabilistic terminology in risk communication in genetic counselling. In particular, it was found that terms such as ‘risk’ and ‘probability’ were founded upon different ontological constructs. Most philosophical approaches to probability do not adequately explain this phenomenon. In spite of much variation in theoretical views on probability, one common element is that probability is viewed as an ‘object’ about which knowledge can be obtained. In contrast, a discursive approach to probability offers a way to understand risk communication (and probabilistic discourse more generally) that involves a focus on the function of probability statements in language. In this paper Toulmin's view of probability is used as a foundation for a discursive analysis of probability. Such an analysis is illustrated in transcripts from genetic counselling sessions.; Copyright © 2006 by SAGE Publications

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## ‣ Alguns tópicos em probabilidade geométrica; Some topics in geometric probability

Fonte: Biblioteca Digital da Unicamp
Publicador: Biblioteca Digital da Unicamp

Tipo: Dissertação de Mestrado
Formato: application/pdf

Publicado em 28/02/2011
Português

Relevância na Pesquisa
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#Probabilidades geométricas#Distribuição (Probabilidades)#Geometria#Geometric probabilities#Distribution (Probability theory)#Geometric

Ao nosso entender, a Probabilidade Geométrica quantifica a probabilidade de ocorrer alguns fenômenos associados a entes geométricos. O primeiro estudo, talvez o mais famoso, a ser realizado neste sentido é o problema das agulhas de Buffon. A idéia deste estudo é simples. Traçadas duas retas paralelas a uma distância d, qual é a probabilidade de uma agulha de tamanho l tocar uma das retas? Neste trabalho nos dedicamos, inicialmente, a estudar este problema e sua resolução. Um segundo tópico do nosso trabalho foi baseado no seguinte problema: Suponha que uma antena transmissora de algum sinal, por exemplo, de celular, emite seus sinais uniformemente a uma distância a, em um plano. Se estou num ponto P do plano, qual a probabilidade de entrar na zona de emissão de sinal da antena se me deslocar até um raio b? Para a resolução deste problema nós utilizamos probabilidade contínua, coordenadas polares e integração de várias variáveis. Como aplicações deste estudo temos os casos das distribuições de probabilidade uniforme e normal. Um terceiro problema tratado foi o seguinte: no espaço tridimensional temos uma fonte de emissão T, por exemplo, algum gerador de campo magnético, a qual distribui uniformemente sua energia até um raio a. Suponha...

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## ‣ The modulation of simple reaction time by the spatial probability of a visual stimulus

Fonte: Associação Brasileira de Divulgação Científica
Publicador: Associação Brasileira de Divulgação Científica

Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica
Formato: text/html

Publicado em 01/07/2003
Português

Relevância na Pesquisa
36.26227%

Simple reaction time (SRT) in response to visual stimuli can be influenced by many stimulus features. The speed and accuracy with which observers respond to a visual stimulus may be improved by prior knowledge about the stimulus location, which can be obtained by manipulating the spatial probability of the stimulus. However, when higher spatial probability is achieved by holding constant the stimulus location throughout successive trials, the resulting improvement in performance can also be due to local sensory facilitation caused by the recurrent spatial location of a visual target (position priming). The main objective of the present investigation was to quantitatively evaluate the modulation of SRT by the spatial probability structure of a visual stimulus. In two experiments the volunteers had to respond as quickly as possible to the visual target presented on a computer screen by pressing an optic key with the index finger of the dominant hand. Experiment 1 (N = 14) investigated how SRT changed as a function of both the different levels of spatial probability and the subject's explicit knowledge about the precise probability structure of visual stimulation. We found a gradual decrease in SRT with increasing spatial probability of a visual target regardless of the observer's previous knowledge concerning the spatial probability of the stimulus. Error rates...

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## ‣ On Markov chains induced by partitioned transition probability matrices

Fonte: Universidade Cornell
Publicador: Universidade Cornell

Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica

Português

Relevância na Pesquisa
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Let S be a denumerable state space and let P be a transition probability
matrix on S. If a denumerable set M of nonnegative matrices is such that the
sum of the matrices is equal to P, then we call M a partition of P. Let K
denote the set of probability vectors on S. To every partition M of P we can
associate a transition probability function on K defined in such a way that if
p in K and m in M are such that ||pm|| > 0, then, with probability ||pm|| the
vector p is transferred to the vector pm/||pm||. Here ||.|| denotes the
l_1-norm. In this paper we investigate convergence in distribution for Markov
chains generated by transition probability functions induced by partitions of
transition probability matrices. An important application of the convergence
results obtained is to filtering processes of partially observed Markov chains.; Comment: Version 2 consists of 37 pages, Version 1 of 73 pages. Section 12 of
Version 1 is removed. Most proofs in Version 2 are shorter. Some are even
omitted. Version 2 is accepted by Acta Math. Sin. (Engl. Ser.)

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## ‣ Surprisingly Rational: Probability theory plus noise explains biases in judgment

Fonte: Universidade Cornell
Publicador: Universidade Cornell

Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica

Português

Relevância na Pesquisa
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#Physics - Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability#Computer Science - Artificial Intelligence#Statistics - Applications

The systematic biases seen in people's probability judgments are typically
taken as evidence that people do not reason about probability using the rules
of probability theory, but instead use heuristics which sometimes yield
reasonable judgments and sometimes systematic biases. This view has had a major
impact in economics, law, medicine, and other fields; indeed, the idea that
people cannot reason with probabilities has become a widespread truism. We
present a simple alternative to this view, where people reason about
probability according to probability theory but are subject to random variation
or noise in the reasoning process. In this account the effect of noise is
cancelled for some probabilistic expressions: analysing data from two
experiments we find that, for these expressions, people's probability judgments
are strikingly close to those required by probability theory. For other
expressions this account produces systematic deviations in probability
estimates. These deviations explain four reliable biases in human probabilistic
reasoning (conservatism, subadditivity, conjunction and disjunction fallacies).
These results suggest that people's probability judgments embody the rules of
probability theory, and that biases in those judgments are due to the effects
of random noise.; Comment: 64 pages. Final preprint version. In press...

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## ‣ Splitting of liftings in products of probability spaces

Fonte: Universidade Cornell
Publicador: Universidade Cornell

Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica

Publicado em 01/09/2005
Português

Relevância na Pesquisa
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We prove that if (X,\mathfrakA,P) is an arbitrary probability space with
countably generated \sigma-algebra \mathfrakA, (Y,\mathfrakB,Q) is an arbitrary
complete probability space with a lifting \rho and \hat R is a complete
probability measure on \mathfrakA \hat \otimes_R \mathfrakB determined by a
regular conditional probability {S_y:y\in Y} on \mathfrakA with respect to
\mathfrakB, then there exist a lifting \pi on (X\times Y,\mathfrakA \hat
\otimes_R \mathfrakB,\hat R) and liftings \sigma_y on (X,\hat \mathfrakA_y,\hat
S_y), y\in Y, such that, for every E\in\mathfrakA \hat \otimes_R \mathfrakB and
every y\in Y, [\pi(E)]^y=\sigma_y\bigl([\pi(E)]^y\bigr). Assuming the absolute
continuity of R with respect to P\otimes Q, we prove the existence of a regular
conditional probability {T_y:y\in Y} and liftings \varpi on (X\times
Y,\mathfrakA \hat \otimes_R \mathfrakB,\hat R), \rho' on (Y,\mathfrakB,\hat Q)
and \sigma_y on (X,\hat \mathfrakA_y,\hat S_y), y\in Y, such that, for every
E\in\mathfrakA \hat \otimes_R \mathfrakB and every y\in Y,
[\varpi(E)]^y=\sigma_y\bigl([\varpi(E)]^y\bigr) and \varpi(A\times
B)=\bigcup_{y\in\rho'(B)}\sigma_y(A)\times{y}\qquadif A\times
B\in\mathfrakA\times\mathfrakB. Both results are generalizations of Musia\l...

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## ‣ The Linking Probability of Deep Spider-Web Networks

Fonte: Universidade Cornell
Publicador: Universidade Cornell

Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica

Publicado em 14/02/2005
Português

Relevância na Pesquisa
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We consider crossbar switching networks with base $b$ (that is, constructed
from $b\times b$ crossbar switches), scale $k$ (that is, with $b^k$ inputs,
$b^k$ outputs and $b^k$ links between each consecutive pair of stages) and
depth $l$ (that is, with $l$ stages). We assume that the crossbars are
interconnected according to the spider-web pattern, whereby two diverging paths
reconverge only after at least $k$ stages. We assume that each vertex is
independently idle with probability $q$, the vacancy probability. We assume
that $b\ge 2$ and the vacancy probability $q$ are fixed, and that $k$ and $l =
ck$ tend to infinity with ratio a fixed constant $c>1$. We consider the linking
probability $Q$ (the probability that there exists at least one idle path
between a given idle input and a given idle output). In a previous paper it was
shown that if $c\le 2$, then the linking probability $Q$ tends to 0 if
$0

1$. This is done by using generating functions and complex-variable techniques to estimate the second moments of various random variables involved in the analysis of the networks.; Comment: i+21 pp

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## ‣ Uniquely determined uniform probability on the natural numbers

Fonte: Universidade Cornell
Publicador: Universidade Cornell

Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica

Português

Relevância na Pesquisa
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In this paper, we address the problem of constructing a uniform probability
measure on $\mathbb{N}$. Of course, this is not possible within the bounds of
the Kolmogorov axioms and we have to violate at least one axiom. We define a
probability measure as a finitely additive measure assigning probability $1$ to
the whole space, on a domain which is closed under complements and finite
disjoint unions. We introduce and motivate a notion of uniformity which we call
weak thinnability, which is strictly stronger than extension of natural
density. We construct a weakly thinnable probability measure and we show that
on its domain, which contains sets without natural density, probability is
uniquely determined by weak thinnability. In this sense, we can assign uniform
probabilities in a canonical way. We generalize this result to uniform
probability measures on other metric spaces, including $\mathbb{R}^n$.; Comment: We added a discussion of coherent probability measures and some
explanation regarding the operator we study. We changed the title to a more
descriptive one. Further, we tidied up the proofs and corrected and
simplified some minor issues

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## ‣ Probability Bracket Notation: the Unified Expressions of Conditional Expectation and Conditional Probability in Quantum Modeling

Fonte: Universidade Cornell
Publicador: Universidade Cornell

Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica

Publicado em 07/11/2009
Português

Relevância na Pesquisa
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After a brief introduction to Probability Bracket Notation (PBN), indicator
operator and conditional density operator (CDO), we investigate probability
spaces associated with various quantum systems: system with one observable
(discrete or continuous), system with two commutative observables (independent
or dependent) and a system of indistinguishable non-interacting many-particles.
In each case, we derive unified expressions of conditional expectation (CE),
conditional probability (CP), and absolute probability (AP): they have the same
format for discrete or continuous spectrum; they are defined in both Hilbert
space (using Dirac notation) and probability space (using PBN); and they may be
useful to deal with CE of non-commutative observables.

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## ‣ Improving Ranking Using Quantum Probability

Fonte: Universidade Cornell
Publicador: Universidade Cornell

Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica

Publicado em 27/08/2011
Português

Relevância na Pesquisa
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#Computer Science - Information Retrieval#Computer Science - Emerging Technologies#Computer Science - Learning#Physics - Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability

The paper shows that ranking information units by quantum probability differs
from ranking them by classical probability provided the same data used for
parameter estimation. As probability of detection (also known as recall or
power) and probability of false alarm (also known as fallout or size) measure
the quality of ranking, we point out and show that ranking by quantum
probability yields higher probability of detection than ranking by classical
probability provided a given probability of false alarm and the same parameter
estimation data. As quantum probability provided more effective detectors than
classical probability within other domains that data management, we conjecture
that, the system that can implement subspace-based detectors shall be more
effective than a system which implements a set-based detectors, the
effectiveness being calculated as expected recall estimated over the
probability of detection and expected fallout estimated over the probability of
false alarm.

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## ‣ Probability Bracket Notation: Probability Space, Conditional Expectation and Introductory Martingales

Fonte: Universidade Cornell
Publicador: Universidade Cornell

Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica

Português

Relevância na Pesquisa
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In this paper, we continue to explore the consistence and usability of
Probability Bracket Notation (PBN) proposed in our previous articles. After a
brief review of PBN with dimensional analysis, we investigate probability
spaces in terms of PBN by introducing probability spaces associated with random
variables (R.V) or associated with stochastic processes (S.P). Next, we express
several important properties of conditional expectation (CE) and some their
proofs in PBN. Then, we introduce martingales based on sequence of R.V or based
on filtration in PBN. In the process, we see PBN can be used to investigate
some probability problems, which otherwise might need explicit usage of Measure
theory. Whenever applicable, we use dimensional analysis to validate our
formulas and use graphs for visualization of concepts in PBN. We hope this
study shows that PBN, stimulated by and adapted from Dirac notation in Quantum
Mechanics (QM), may have the potential to be a useful tool in probability
modeling, at least for those who are already familiar with Dirac notation in
QM.; Comment: 37 pages, 5 figures

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## ‣ Bell as the Copernicus of Probability

Fonte: Universidade Cornell
Publicador: Universidade Cornell

Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica

Português

Relevância na Pesquisa
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Our aim is to emphasize the role of mathematical models in physics,
especially models of geometry and probability. We briefly compare developments
of geometry and probability by pointing to similarities and differences: from
Euclid to Lobachevsky and from Kolmogorov to Bell. In probability Bell played
the same role as Lobachevsky in geometry. In fact, violation of Bell's
inequality implies the impossibility to apply the classical probability model
of Kolmogorov (1933) to quantum phenomena. Thus quantum probabilistic model
(based on Born's rule) is an example of non-Kolmogorovian model of probability,
similarly to the Lobachevskian model -- the first example of non-Euclidean
model of geometry. We also discuss coupling of the classical probabilistic
model with classical (Boolean) logic. The Kolmogorov model of probability is
based on the set-theoretic presentation of the Boolean logic. In this framework
violation of Bell's inequality implies the impossibility to use the Boolean
structure of events for quantum phenomena; instead of it, events have to be
represented by linear subspaces. This is the "probability model" interpretation
of violation of Bell's inequality. We also criticize the standard
interpretation -- an attempt to add to rigorous mathematical probability models
additional elements such as (non)locality and (un)realism. Finally...

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## ‣ Negative probability in the framework of combined probability

Fonte: Universidade Cornell
Publicador: Universidade Cornell

Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica

Publicado em 30/05/2013
Português

Relevância na Pesquisa
36.325383%

Negative probability has found diverse applications in theoretical physics.
Thus, construction of sound and rigorous mathematical foundations for negative
probability is important for physics. There are different axiomatizations of
conventional probability. So, it is natural that negative probability also has
different axiomatic frameworks. In the previous publications (Burgin, 2009;
2010), negative probability was mathematically formalized and rigorously
interpreted in the context of extended probability. In this work, the axiomatic
system that synthesizes conventional probability and negative probability is
constructed in the form of combined probability. In a mathematically rigorous
way, both theoretical concepts - combined probability and extended probability
- stretch conventional probability so that it can takes negative values. After
introducing axioms for combined probability, we study its properties, as well
as relations to extended probability and conventional probability.

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## ‣ Mean exit time and escape probability for dynamical systems driven by Levy noise

Fonte: Universidade Cornell
Publicador: Universidade Cornell

Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica

Publicado em 29/01/2012
Português

Relevância na Pesquisa
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The mean first exit time and escape probability are utilized to quantify
dynamical behaviors of stochastic differential equations with non-Gaussian
alpha-stable type Levy motions. Both deterministic quantities are characterized
by differential-integral equations(i.e.,differential equations with non local
terms) but with different exterior conditions. The non-Gaussianity of noises
manifests as nonlocality at the level of mean exit time and escape probability.
An objective of this paper is to make mean exit time and escape probability as
efficient computational tools, to the applied probability community, for
quantifying stochastic dynamics. An accurate numerical scheme is developed and
validated for computing the mean exit time and escape probability. Asymptotic
solution for the mean exit time is given when the pure jump measure in the Levy
motion is small.
From both the analytical and numerical results, it is observed that the mean
exit time depends strongly on the domain size and the value of alpha in the
alpha-stable Levy jump measure. The mean exit time can measure which of the two
competing factors in alpha-stable Levy motion, i.e. the jump frequency or the
jump size, is dominant in helping a process exit a bounded domain. The escape
probability is shown to vary with the underlying vector field(i.e....

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## ‣ Homotopy Theory of Probability Spaces I: Classical independence and homotopy Lie algebras

Fonte: Universidade Cornell
Publicador: Universidade Cornell

Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica

Publicado em 28/10/2015
Português

Relevância na Pesquisa
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#Mathematics - Probability#High Energy Physics - Theory#Mathematics - Algebraic Topology#Mathematics - Quantum Algebra#Primary 55P43, 60A05

This is the first installment of a series of papers whose aim is to lay a
foundation for homotopy probability theory by establishing its basic principles
and practices. The notion of a homotopy probability space is an enrichment of
the notion of an algebraic probability space with ideas from algebraic homotopy
theory. This enrichment uses a characterization of the laws of random variables
in a probability space in terms of symmetries of the expectation. The laws of
random variables are reinterpreted as invariants of the homotopy types of
infinity morphisms between certain homotopy algebras. The relevant category of
homotopy algebras is determined by the appropriate notion of independence for
the underlying probability theory. This theory will be both a natural
generalization and an effective computational tool for the study of classical
algebraic probability spaces, while keeping the same central limit. This
article is focused on the commutative case, where the laws of random variables
are also described in terms of certain affinely flat structures on the formal
moduli space of a naturally defined family attached to the given algebraic
probability space. Non-commutative probability theories will be the main
subject of the sequels.
(This work is a spin-off from the author's program to characterize path
integrals of quantum field theory in terms of the symmetries of the quantum
expectation which should satisfy a certain coherence with a particular weight
filtration generated by the Planck constant $\hbar$. A similar idea is adopted
here in a simplified form...

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## ‣ Phantom Probability

Fonte: Universidade Cornell
Publicador: Universidade Cornell

Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica

Português

Relevância na Pesquisa
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Classical probability theory supports probability measures, assigning a fixed
positive real value to each event, these measures are far from satisfactory in
formulating real-life occurrences. The main innovation of this paper is the
introduction of a new probability measure, enabling varying probabilities that
are recorded by ring elements to be assigned to events; this measure still
provides a Bayesian model, resembling the classical probability model.
By introducing two principles for the possible variation of a probability
(also known as uncertainty, ambiguity, or imprecise probability), together with
the "correct" algebraic structure allowing the framing of these principles, we
present the foundations for the theory of phantom probability, generalizing
classical probability theory in a natural way. This generalization preserves
many of the well-known properties, as well as familiar distribution functions,
of classical probability theory: moments, covariance, moment generating
functions, the law of large numbers, and the central limit theorem are just a
few of the instances demonstrating the concept of phantom probability theory.; Comment: 41 pages, 2 figures

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## ‣ Random fractals and Probability metrics

Fonte: Applied Probability Trust
Publicador: Applied Probability Trust

Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica

Português

Relevância na Pesquisa
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#Keywords: Approximation theory#Boundary conditions#Convergence of numerical methods#Fractals#Iterative methods#Probability distributions#Theorem proving#Iterative function system#Minimal metric#Monge-Kantorovich metric#Probability metrics

New metrics are introduced in the space of random measures and are applied, with various modifications of the contraction method, to prove existence and uniqueness results for self-similar random fractal measures. We obtain exponential convergence, both in distribution and almost surely, of an iterative sequence of random measures (defined by means of the scaling operator) to a unique self-similar random measure. The assumptions are quite weak, and correspond to similar conditions in the deterministic case. The fixed mass case is handled in a direct way based on regularity properties of the metrics and the properties of a natural probability space. Proving convergence in the random mass case needs additional tools, such as a specially adapted choice of the space of random measures and of the space of probability distributions on measures, the introduction of reweighted sequences of random measures and a comparison technique.

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## ‣ Scoring probability forecasts for point processes: the entropy score and information gain

Fonte: Applied Probability Trust
Publicador: Applied Probability Trust

Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica

Português

Relevância na Pesquisa
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The entropy score of an observed outcome that has been given a probability forecast p is defined to be -log p. If p is derived from a probability model and there is a background model for which the same outcome has probability π, then the log ratio log(p

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