non-peer-reviewed; This study has been devised to both raise awareness on the topic of risk attitude within risk management, but also to advise practicing organisations on the shortfalls of risk management standards, which may have been consulted in the development of their own individual risk management plans. Within this study, the methodologies outlined for dealing with risk attitude, within three risk management standards; the IRM standard, PRINCE 2 and the PMBOK, are examined. Furthermore the different methods, tools and techniques highlighted by different authors in the field are also amalgamated. From this the critical elements for managing risk attitude are identified and used to determine the effectiveness of the risk management standards in managing risk attitude within decision making. Risk attitude can affect ones decision making both in a positive or negative manner and as all stages of the risk management process are executed by individuals there is need for it to be managed effectively. Moreover many authors have argued that there are significant shortfalls with regards the management of human factors in the risk management process. From this study it was discovered that there is no exact method for managing risk attitude...

This publication aims to complement existing methodologies by establishing a comprehensive framework for the assessment of banks, not only by using financial data, but also by considering corporate governance. It argues that each of the key players in the corporate governance process (such as shareholders, directors, executive managers, and internal and external auditors) is responsible for some component of financial and operational risk management. Following a holistic overview of bank analysis in chapter two, the importance of banking supervision in the context of corporate governance is discussed in chapter three. This chapter also considers the partnership approach and the emerging framework for corporate governance and risk management, as well as the identification and allocation of tasks as part of the risk management process. The framework for risk management is further discussed in chapters four through eleven.

This report addresses the large flood exposures of Central Europe and proposes efficient financial and risk transfer mechanisms to mitigate fiscal losses from natural catastrophes.. The report is primarily addressed to the governments of the region which should build into their fiscal planning, the necessary contingent funding mechanisms, based on their exposures. While there exist pan-European mechanisms such as the EU Solidarity Fund to help EU members fund mega disasters, these only kick in at extremely high loss levels. Given these issues, the Governments of the V-4 countries should consider it a priority to set up risk transfer mechanisms to reduce fiscal volatility following natural catastrophes. The private sector insurance markets in the V-4 countries appear adequate and reflect rather high levels of penetration in the economy and in the housing sector. Economic and fiscal analyses based on global data also show that countries with insurance mechanisms and markets show a stronger GDP recovery path and lower fiscal deficits following a disaster. However...

This paper provides a review of the design and experience of risk-based pension fund supervision in several countries that have been leaders in the development of these methods. The utilization of risk-based methods originates primarily in the supervision of banks. In recent years it has increasingly been extended to other types of financial intermediaries including pension funds and insurers. The trend toward risk-based supervision of pensions is closely associated with movement toward the integration of pension supervision with that of banking and other financial services into a single national authority. Although similar in concept to the techniques developed in banking, the application to pension funds has required modifications, particularly for defined contribution funds that transfer investment risk to fund members. The countries examined provide a range of experiences that illustrate both the diversity of pension systems and approaches to risk-based supervision, but also a commonality of the focus on sound risk management and effective supervisory outcomes. The paper provides a description of pension supervision in Australia...

This document investigates prospects for the use of index based weather insurance in Ethiopia for commercial and semi-commercial farmers. The document first summarizes the impact of risk weather risk in particular on Ethiopian agriculture and the need to balance investments in weather risk mitigation and weather risk management. Because the focus of this document is on risk management in the face of potential weather shocks, this introduction is followed by a summary of the traditional risk-transfer tool available for managing agricultural weather risk, multi-peril crop insurance. It outlines the limitations of this approach in the Ethiopian context. Finally, the first section of the paper provides an overview of the index based weather insurance product, which is the focus of the remainder of the document. Narrowing its scope to the potential use of index based weather insurance products in Ethiopia, the research discusses whether the prerequisites or enabling conditions for this type of product exist and whether there are any major impediments to developing a weather insurance program in the country. It was determined that the major pre-requisites for a pilot program appeared to be in place. The research took a project implementation approach to determining the technical feasibility of this type of program...

This publication aims to complement existing methodologies by establishing a comprehensive framework for the assessment of banks, not only by using financial data, but also by considering corporate governance. It argues that each of the key players in the corporate governance process (such as shareholders, directors, executive managers, and internal and external auditors) is responsible for some component of financial and operational risk management. Following a holistic overview of bank analysis in Chapter 2, the importance of banking supervision in the context of corporate governance is discussed in Chapter 3. This chapter also considers the partnership approach and the emerging framework for corporate governance and risk management, as well as the identification and allocation of tasks as part of the risk management process. The framework for risk management is further discussed in Chapters 4 through 11.

This report aims to advance the dialogue on creative, forward-looking solutions for developing countries by presenting recent innovations on disaster risk financing and insurance developed by the private markets as well as the international donor community, from the macro (government) level down to the micro (household) level. It discusses how these innovations can be adapted and implemented in developing countries to better protect efficiently those countries against the financial consequences of natural disasters. Section one provides an introduction to the economic and fiscal impacts of natural disasters on developing countries. Section two examines examples of innovation in the private insurance and capital markets that may have applications in sovereign disaster risk financing for developing countries. Section three examines how innovations coming out of mature property catastrophe risk insurance (PCRI) markets could serve in low and middle-income countries. Section four considers how innovation is taking seed in creative disaster micro insurance programs in low- and middle-income countries. Section five wraps up the report with brief concluding remarks.

This paper presents an overview of the structure of probabilistic catastrophe risk models, discusses their importance for appraising sovereign disaster risk financing and insurance instruments and strategy, and puts forward a model and a process for improving decision making on the linked disaster risk management strategy and sovereign disaster risk financing and insurance strategy. The paper discusses governments use of probabilistic catastrophe models to inform sovereign disaster risk financing decision making and describes the ex ante and ex post financing instruments available for responding to extreme natural events. It also discusses the challenge of appraising sovereign disaster risk financing and insurance instruments, including a review of the multiple dimensions of disaster risks and the value that probabilistic catastrophe risk models provide. The decision making framework for sovereign disaster risk financing and insurance put forward by the paper includes the use of a decision model (an influence diagram) as a rigorous representation of the relationships between the decisions...

Research Objectives: This thesis studied bank risk taking behaviour with regards to capital and asset portfolio adjustments. It also evaluated the impact of economic uncertainty and capital regulations on banks’ risk taking behaviour. There were two objectives of this thesis. The first objective was to investigate the impact of adverse shocks in the economy on a bank’s decisions regarding capital and asset portfolio management. The second objective was to examine the interrelationship between decisions on capital and asset portfolios. Further, the impact of economic uncertainty and changes in capital regulations on this relationship was also examined. This thesis was motivated by several issues. First, even though supervisory authorities and banks are aware of the importance of capital in the prevention of bank failures, empirical studies are inconclusive on the effectiveness of capital regulations in controlling bank risk taking behaviour. Second, the contradictory conclusions in current literature regarding the effectiveness of capital regulations in controlling bank risk taking attitudes do not incorporate economic shocks. Therefore, the existing studies do not examine the impact of economic uncertainty on capital and portfolio risk decisions...

This thesis examined factors associated with the accuracy of caries risk assessment by South Australian Dental Service (SADS) staff for children enrolled in the school dental service. Understanding those factors can help to address variation in accuracy of assessment and ultimately caries risk among children. The aims of this thesis were to examine the relationship between clinician’s assessment of caries risk at a baseline examination and subsequent caries development and to explore the association between accuracy in caries risk assessment and clinician- and patient-related factors. This study consisted of four sub-studies which addressed a set of specific objectives. Two data sources were used in the analysis. The first dataset was obtained from the South Australian component of the Child Dental Health Survey, an ongoing national surveillance survey of the oral health status of Australian children attending school dental services in all states and territories. Data on caries experience were extracted from electronic examination records collected during the period 2002–2005. These data included caries experience (decayed, missing and filled tooth surfaces) of the deciduous (dmfs) and permanent dentition (DMFS). The level of risk status assigned by clinicians at the baseline examination as well as socio-demographic factors of those children...

Risk-based supervision of pension funds grew out of a project that was jointly conducted by the World Bank and the International Organization of Pension Supervisors (IOPS). The project was initiated in response to the increasing interest in the development of innovative approaches to pension supervision from the member countries of both institutions. The volume provides an initial assessment of the development of risk-based supervision of pension funds in four countries that have been pioneering the development of risk-based supervision methods in various forms. The volume is comprised of a summary chapter and in-depth studies of the experience in four individual countries-Australia, Denmark, Mexico, and Netherlands. These four country studies were prepared by experts familiar with the systems in each of the countries. The studies have been edited by World Bank staff to ensure a consistent approach to the analysis of the various countries' systems. Models of risk-based supervision demonstrate the benefits of moving away from an approach based on strict compliance...

Economic theory suggests that countries should ignore uncertainty for public investment and behave as if indifferent to risk because they can pool risks to a much greater extent than private investors can. This paper discusses the general economic theory in the case of developing countries. The analysis identifies several cases where the government's risk-neutral assumption does not hold, thus making rational the use of ex ante risk financing instruments, including sovereign insurance. The paper discusses the optimal level of sovereign insurance. It argues that, because sovereign insurance is usually more expensive than post-disaster financing, it should mainly cover immediate needs, while long-term expenditures should be financed through post-disaster financing (including ex post borrowing and tax increases). In other words, sovereign insurance should not aim at financing the long-term resource gap, but only the short-term liquidity need.

Although financial theory suggests a positive relationship between default risk and equity returns, recent empirical papers find anomalously low returns for stocks with high probabilities of default. The authors show that returns to distressed stocks previously documented are really an amalgamation of anomalies associated with three stock characteristics -- leverage, volatility and profitability. In this paper they use a market based measure -- corporate credit spreads -- to proxy for default risk. Unlike previously used measures that proxy for a firm's real-world probability of default, credit spreads proxy for a risk-adjusted (or a risk-neutral) probability of default and thereby explicitly account for the systematic component of distress risk. The authors show that credit spreads predict corporate defaults better than previously used measures, such as, bond ratings, accounting variables and structural model parameters. They do not find default risk to be significantly priced in the cross-section of equity returns. There is also no evidence of firms with high default risk delivering anomalously low returns.

This paper examines the development of risk-based supervision of pension funds in Australia. The large number of pension funds has meant that since the inception of pension fund supervision in the early 1990's the regulator has sought to identify high risk funds and focus its attention on these funds. However, the regulator developed a more sophisticated risk-rating model, known as PAIRS/SOARS, in 1992 in order to apply a more disciplined and consistent ratings methodology. Four reasons are given for the move towards more sophisticated risk-based supervision: 1) creation of an integrated supervisor which allowed the use of techniques used in banking and insurance to be adopted for pension fund; 2) the need to better use available supervisory resources; 3) several pension fund failures; and 4) concerns about industry weaknesses. Supervisory techniques used particularly in the banking industry, such as universal licensing, 'fit and proper' assessment, and risk management requirements were adopted for the pension sector between 2004 and 2006. The paper provides an outline of the PAIRS/SOARS risk-rating model which was also adopted. It observes that the approach provides an analytical discipline to risk assessment...

The objective of the Review of Risk Mitigation Instruments for Infrastructure Financing and Recent Trends and Developments is to provide a concise yet comprehensive guide as well as reference information for practitioners of infrastructure financing, including private sector financiers and developing country officials. The work is also intended as a reference for institutions offering (or developing) risk mitigation instruments, allowing them to learn from each other's recent practices. The book is organized into five chapters with the following objectives: Chapter 1 Type of Risk Mitigation Instruments: increases awareness of the different types and nature of risk mitigation instruments currently available for private financiers. Chapter 2 Recent Trends in Risk Mitigation: highlights areas in risk mitigation for developing country infrastructure financing receiving recent attention. Chapter 3 Characteristics of Providers and Compatibility: summarizes the characteristics of multilateral, bilateral, and private providers of risk mitigation instruments and the compatibility of those instruments. Chapter 4 Innovative Application of Risk Mitigation Instruments: presents recent developments and innovative applications of risk mitigation instruments through case transactions. Chapter 5 Challenges Ahead: summarizes areas that pose challenges to the use of risk mitigation instruments as catalysts of infrastructure development. The focus of this book is on the multilateral development banks and agencies (that is...

Background: The incidence of knee osteoarthritis (OA) is rising. While several risk factors have been associated with the development of knee OA, this information is not readily accessible to those at risk for osteoarthritis. Risk calculators have been developed for several prevalent chronic conditions but not for OA. Using published evidence on established risk factors, we developed an interactive, personalized knee OA risk calculator (OA Risk C) and conducted a pilot study to evaluate its acceptability and feasibility. Methods: We used the Osteoarthritis Policy (OAPol) Model, a validated, state-transition simulation of the natural history and management of OA, to generate data for OA Risk C. Risk estimates for calculator users were based on a set of demographic and clinical factors (age, sex, race/ethnicity, obesity) and select risk factors (family history of knee OA, occupational exposure, and history of knee injury). OA Risk C presents personalized risk of knee OA in several ways to maximize understanding among a wide range of users. We conducted a study of 45 subjects in a primary care setting to establish the feasibility and acceptability of the OA risk calculator. Pilot study participants were asked several questions regarding ease of use...

11 páginas, 6 figuras, 4 tablas.-- El PDF del artículo es su versión post-print.; A new statistical approach for preliminary risk evaluation of breakage in tailings dam is presented and illustrated by a case study regarding the Mediterranean region. The objective of the proposed method is to establish an empirical scale of risk, from which guidelines for prioritizing the collection of further specific information can be derived. The method relies on a historical database containing, in essence, two sets of qualitative data: the first set concerns the variables that are observable before the disaster (e.g., type and size of the dam, its location, and state of activity), and the second refers to the consequences of the disaster (e.g., failure type, sludge characteristics, fatalities categorization, and downstream range of damage). Based on a modified form of correspondence analysis, where the second set of attributes are projected as “supplementary variables” onto the axes provided by the eigenvalue decomposition of the matrix referring to the first set, a “qualitative regression” is performed, relating the variables to be predicted (contained in the second set) with the “predictors” (the observable variables). On the grounds of the previously derived relationship...

Government institutions have responsibilities to distribute risk management funds meaningfully and to be accountable for their choices. We took a macro-level sociological approach to understanding the role of government in managing environmental risks, and insights from micro-level psychology to examine individual-level risk-related perceptions and beliefs. Survey data from 2179 UK citizens showed that lay people's funding preferences were associated positively with beliefs about responsibility and trust, yet associations with perception varied depending on risk type. Moreover, there were risk-specific differences in the funding preferences of the lay sample and 29 policy makers. A laboratory based study of 109 participants examined funding allocation in more detail through iterative presentation of expert information. Quantitative and qualitative data revealed a meso-level framework comprising three types of decision makers who varied in their willingness to change funding allocation preferences following expert information: adaptors, responders and resistors. This research highlights the relevance of integrated theoretical approaches to understanding the policy process, and the benefits of reflexive dialogue to managing environmental risks.

Until the 'Basel 2' reforms to banking supervision, operational risk was largely a residual category for risks and uncertainties which were difficult to quantify, insure and manage in traditional ways. This paper examines the rapid emergence of operational risk from this low epistemic status to its institutionalisation as a key component of global banking regulation. However, the meaning and implications of the Basel proposals have been fiercely contested by international banks and three key domains of policy controversy have been, and remain, particularly visible: definitional issues, data collection and the limits of quantification. Tensions in these three areas are discussed and reveal the significance of operational risk as a meeting point for diverse concerns and interests, and as a potential reinvention of a management knowledge hybrid between auditing and finance. The paper draws attention to the ironies and contradictions of this operational risk programme, which is part of a visionary project to extend 'enforced self-regulation' deep into the operations of banking, combining advanced technical modelling ideas on the one hand and softer corporate governance thinking on the other. The Basel 2 proposals also demonstrate the policy effectiveness of 'operational risk' as an agenda-forming category...