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‣ Determinantes da oferta e da demanda por cebola Argentina no Brasil nos anos 90.; Determinants of supply and demand for Argentine onion in Brazil in the 90´s.

Osaki, Mauro
Fonte: Biblioteca Digitais de Teses e Dissertações da USP Publicador: Biblioteca Digitais de Teses e Dissertações da USP
Tipo: Dissertação de Mestrado Formato: application/pdf
Publicado em 14/11/2003 Português
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A abertura econômica (1990) e a consolidação do tratado do Mercosul (1995) provocaram mudanças nas estruturas de produção e comercialização da cebola no Brasil na década de 90. A principal mudança observada foi com a integração comercial entre Brasil e Argentina, quando o mercado brasileiro (que era auto-suficiente) passou a ter maior participação da cebola do país vizinho e os agentes do mercado passaram a diferenciar produto estrangeiro em relação ao doméstico. Assim, o presente trabalho procurou estimar funções de oferta e demanda do bulbo importado para o Brasil. Para análise foram desenvolvidos um modelo teórico e um modelo gráfico, que auxiliaram na especificação do modelo econométrico para o produto em estudo. O modelo foi ajustado por equações simultâneas utilizando o método de Mínimos Quadrados de Dois Estágios. Os coeficientes encontrados apresentaram sinais coerentes com o modelo econômico teórico definido. Os resultados obtidos permitiram interpretar a dinâmica do mercado importador de cebola argentina. Ficou claro que há um efeito importante do preço (e, portanto, da disponibilidade) de cebola nacional sobre o preço que será pago à cebola argentina. Os argentinos comportam-se como tomadores de preços e são altamente sensíveis ao comportamento do mercado brasileiro. O volume exportado pelos argentinos responde expressivamente ao preço pago no Brasil e à taxa de câmbio da moeda brasileira. O Mercosul gerou uma efetiva integração do mercado da cebola entre Brasil e Argentina...

‣ Fusões e aquisições na indústria de alimentos e bebidas do Brasil: análise dos efeitos nos preços ao consumidor; Mergers and Acquisitions in the Brazilian Food Industry: an analysis of the effects on consumer prices

Viegas, Claudia Assunção dos Santos
Fonte: Biblioteca Digitais de Teses e Dissertações da USP Publicador: Biblioteca Digitais de Teses e Dissertações da USP
Tipo: Tese de Doutorado Formato: application/pdf
Publicado em 19/05/2006 Português
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Na década de 1990 o Brasil passou por um intenso processo de fusões e aquisições (F&A) que alteraram a configuração do parque industrial. A indústria de alimentos e bebidas teve destaque nesse processo. A proposta deste trabalho é avaliar se as F&A afetaram os preços ao consumidor na indústria de alimentos e bebidas do Brasil. Isso é feito no capítulo 3, utilizando-se dados do IPC-FIPE (Índice de Preços ao Consumidor da Fundação Instituto de Pesquisas Econômicas), da PIA-IBGE (Pesquisa Industrial Anual do Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística) e do IPA-FGV (Índice de Preços no Atacado da Fundação Getúlio Vargas). Essa análise empírica é precedida por um estudo sobre a estrutura produtiva da indústria (Oferta: Capítulo 1) e um breve relato sobre as alterações recentes no mercado consumidor brasileiro (Demanda: Capítulo 2). Com isso, o trabalho oferece uma visão ampla sobre a indústria de alimentos e bebidas no Brasil, sinalizando mudanças após as fusões e aquisições, tanto na estrutura de oferta e demanda quanto no comportamento dos preços ao consumidor.; In the nineties, Brazil has gone through an intense process of mergers and acquisitions (M&A), with significant impacts on the country´s industrial plant. The Food and Beverage industry has had eminence in this process. This work intends to evaluate whether the M&A´s have had an effect on consumer prices of the food and beverage industry. This is the content of chapter 3...

‣ The Selfish Brain: Stress and Eating Behavior

Peters, Achim; Kubera, Britta; Hubold, Christian; Langemann, Dirk
Fonte: Frontiers Research Foundation Publicador: Frontiers Research Foundation
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica
Publicado em 30/05/2011 Português
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The brain occupies a special hierarchical position in human energy metabolism. If cerebral homeostasis is threatened, the brain behaves in a “selfish” manner by competing for energy resources with the body. Here we present a logistic approach, which is based on the principles of supply and demand known from economics. In this “cerebral supply chain” model, the brain constitutes the final consumer. In order to illustrate the operating mode of the cerebral supply chain, we take experimental data which allow assessing the supply, demand and need of the brain under conditions of psychosocial stress. The experimental results show that the brain under conditions of psychosocial stress actively demands energy from the body, in order to cover its increased energy needs. The data demonstrate that the stressed brain uses a mechanism referred to as “cerebral insulin suppression” to limit glucose fluxes into peripheral tissue (muscle, fat) and to enhance cerebral glucose supply. Furthermore psychosocial stress elicits a marked increase in eating behavior in the post-stress phase. Subjects ingested more carbohydrates without any preference for sweet ingredients. These experimentally observed changes of cerebral demand, supply and need are integrated into a logistic framework describing the supply chain of the selfish brain.

‣ Credit Constraints and Investment Behavior in Mexico’s Rural Economy

Love, Inessa; Sanchez, Susana M.
Fonte: Banco Mundial Publicador: Banco Mundial
Português
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This paper uses two recently completed surveys of individual entrepreneurs (farmers and microentrepreneurs) and registered enterprises (agricultural and nonagricultural) operating in Mexico s rural sector to provide new evidence about the factors influencing the incidence of credit constraints and investment behavior. To measure the incidence of credit constraints, the authors use self-reported information on whether economic agents have a demand for loans, separating formal and informal markets. They define credit constraints as a situation where rural agents report an unsatisfied demand for loans (formal or informal), which originates from rural agents having projects that are too risky or from impediments hindering the ability of rural agents and lenders to reduce information asymmetries. The authors find that the self-reported demand for loans is low. Nevertheless, the incidence of credit constraints is pervasive, especially among individual entrepreneurs. The low use of loans has consequences for the amount of investments that occur in the rural economy...

‣ Capital Requirements and Business Cycles with Credit Market Imperfections

Agénor, P.-R.; Alper, K.; Pereira da Silva, L.
Fonte: Banco Mundial Publicador: Banco Mundial
Português
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The business cycle effects of bank capital regulatory regimes are examined in a New Keynesian model with credit market imperfections and a cost channel of monetary policy. Key features of the model are that bank capital increases incentives for banks to monitor borrowers, thereby reducing the probability of default, and excess capital generates benefits in terms of reduced regulatory scrutiny. Basel I and Basel II-type regulatory regimes are defined, and the model is calibrated for a middle-income country. Simulations of supply and demand shocks show that, depending on the elasticity that relates the repayment probability to the capital-loan ratio, a Basel II-type regime may be less procyclical than a Basel I-type regime.

‣ Economics and Ethics of Results-Based Financing for Family Planning : Evidence and Policy Implications

Chowdhury, Sadia; Vergeer, Petra; Schmidt, Harald; Barroy, Helene; Bishai, David; Halpern, Scott
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Português
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This paper was developed for World Bank task team leaders (TTLs) and teams designing results-based financing (RBF) programs in family planning (FP). It explores the rationale for introducing such incentives based on insights from classical and behavioral economics, to respond to supply- and demand-side barriers to using FP services. To help the reader understand why incentivizing FP requires specific attention in RBF, the evolution of incentives in vertical FP programs introduced from the 1950s to the early 1990s and the ethical concerns raised in these programs are described. RBF programs after the 1990s were also studied to understand the ways FP is currently incentivized. The paper also touches on the effects of the incentive programs for FP as described in the literature. Finally, it examines ethical concerns related to FP incentives that should be considered during the design, implementation, and evaluation of programs and provides a conceptual framework that can be of use for task teams in the decision making process for FP in RBF programs. It should be noted that the paper is concerned exclusively with developing a framework that can help design ethical programs to address the unmet need for FP.

‣ Water Supply and Sanitation in Liberia : Turning Finance into Services for 2015 and Beyond

World Bank
Fonte: Nairobi Publicador: Nairobi
Tipo: Economic & Sector Work :: Other Infrastructure Study
Português
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The African Ministers' Council on Water (AMCOW) commissioned the production of a second round of Country Status Overviews (CSOs2) to better understands what underpins progress in water supply and sanitation and what its member governments can do to accelerate that progress across countries in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). AMCOW delegated this task to the World Bank's water and sanitation program and the African Development Bank who are implementing it in close partnership with United Nations Children's Fund (UNICEF) and World Health Organization (WHO) in over 30 countries across SSA. This CSO2 report has been produced in collaboration with the Government of Liberia and other stakeholders during 2009-10. The analysis aims to help countries assess their own service delivery pathways for turning finance into water supply and sanitation services in each of four subsectors: rural and urban water supply, and rural and urban sanitation, and hygiene. The CSO2 analysis has three main components: a review of past coverage; a costing model to assess the adequacy of future investments; and a scorecard which allows diagnosis of particular bottlenecks along the service delivery pathway. The CSO2's contribution is to answer not only whether past trends and future finance are sufficient to meet sector targets...

‣ The Relationship between Urban Form and Station Boardings for Bogota's BRT; Transportation Research: Part A: Policy and Practice

Estupinan, Nicolas; Rodriguez, Daniel A.
Fonte: Banco Mundial Publicador: Banco Mundial
Tipo: Journal Article; Journal Article
Português
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Despite emerging evidence about the association between the built environment and travel behavior, the relationship between bus transit demand and urban form remains largely unexplored. By relying on primary and secondary data analyzed with a geographic information system, this paper examines the built environment characteristics related to stop-level ridership for Bogota's successful bus rapid transit system. After accounting experimentally and statistically for the simultaneity between transit supply, transit demand, and the built environment, we find evidence of the importance of the built environment in BRT station boardings. Specifically, environmental supports for walking and personal and environmental barriers to car use were related to higher BRT boardings. Our results underscore the importance of urban environmental interventions to support transit use.

‣ Determinants of Fertility, Women's Health and Employment Behavior in Sri Lanka

World Bank
Fonte: Washington, DC Publicador: Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Working Paper; Publications & Research
Português
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The paper analyzes the labor market during 1992-2009, the wartime years, and uses the findings to help understand implications for the labor market as the economy grows and recovers from the conflict. The analysis is primarily based on annual Labor Force Survey (LFS) data collected by the Department of Census and Statistics (DCS) between 1992 and 2009. The paper excludes the North and East from the analysis because the labor market in these provinces was functioning in atypical times, and was affected severely by the security situation. The 2006 moving out of poverty study conducted in conflict areas noted large outmigration of the better off households and the reliance on those left behind on remittances (Center for Poverty Analysis 2006). The study also found that private sector investment had largely dwindled in these provinces, and the main source of jobs was public employment. Looking ahead, over the next 15 years, demand for workers in industry is likely to increase as rebuilding and recovery in the North and East proceeds. In addition...

‣ Sector-Specific Training and Mobility in Germany

VILHUBER, Lars
Fonte: Université de Montréal Publicador: Université de Montréal
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica Formato: 1932301 bytes; application/pdf
Português
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This article studies mobility patterns of German workers in light of a model of sector-specific human capital. Furthermore, I employ and describe little-used data on continuous on-the-job training occurring after apprenticeships. Results are presented describing the incidence and duration of continuous training. Continuous training is quite common, despite the high incidence of apprenticeships which precedes this part of a worker's career. Most previous studies have only distinguished between firm-specific and general human capital, usually concluding that training was general. Inconsistent with those conclusions, I show that German men are more likely to find a job within the same sector if they have received continuous training in that sector. These results are similar to those obtained for young U.S. workers, and suggest that sector-specific capital is an important feature of very different labor markets. In addition, they suggest that the observed effect of training on mobility is sensible to the state of the business cycle, indicating a more complex interaction between supply and demand that most theoretical models allow for.; Cet article étudie la mobilité des travailleurs allemands à la lumière d'un modèle de capital humain dont la spécificité est sectorielle. En outre...

‣ Product innovation and adoption in markert equilibrium : the case of digital cameras

Carranza Romero, Juan Esteban
Fonte: Universidad Icesi; Facultad de Ciencias Administrativas y Económicas Publicador: Universidad Icesi; Facultad de Ciencias Administrativas y Económicas
Tipo: article; Artículo Formato: PDF; p.1-44; Electrónico
Português
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This paper contains an empirical dynamic model of supply and demand in the market for digital cameras with endogenous product innovation. On the demand side, heterogeneous consumers time optimally the purchase of goods depending on the expected evolution of prices and characteristics of available cameras. On the supply side, firms introduce new camera models accounting for the dynamic value of new products and the optimal behavior of consumers. The model is estimated using data from the market for digital cameras and the estimated model replicates rich dynamic features of the data. The estimated model is used to perform counterfactual computations, which suggest that more competition or lower product introduction costs generate more product variety but lower average product quality.

‣ Probabilistic risk analysis of restructured electric power systems : implications for reliability analysis and policies

Felder, Frank Andrew
Fonte: Massachusetts Institute of Technology Publicador: Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Tipo: Tese de Doutorado Formato: 209 p.; 18265282 bytes; 18265037 bytes; application/pdf; application/pdf
Português
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Modem society requires reliable and safe operation of its infrastructure. Policymakers believe that, in many industries, competitive markets and regulatory incentives will result in system performance superior to that under command-and-control regulation. Analytical techniques to evaluate the reliability and safety of complex engineering systems, however, do not explicitly account for responses to market and regulatory incentives. In addition, determining which combination of market and regulatory incentives to use is difficult because policy analysts' understanding of complex systems often depends on uncertain data and limited models that reflect incomplete knowledge. This thesis confronts the problem of evaluating the reliability of a complex engineering system that responds to the behavior of decentralized economic agents. Using the example of restructured and partially deregulated electric power systems, it argues that existing engineering-based reliability tools are insufficient to evaluate the reliability of restructured power systems. This research finds that electricity spot markets are not perfectly reliable, that is, they do not always result in sufficient supply to meet demand. General conclusions regarding the reliability of restructured power systems that some economic analysts suggest should be the basis of reliability policies are either verified or demonstrated to be true only when applied to extremely simple and unrealistic models. New generation unit and transmission component availability models are proposed that incorporate dependent failure modes and capture the behavior of economic agents...

‣ Conditions and effectiveness of land use as a mobility tool

Zhang, Ming, 1963 Apr. 22-
Fonte: Massachusetts Institute of Technology Publicador: Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Tipo: Tese de Doutorado Formato: 298 p.; 24917886 bytes; 24917644 bytes; application/pdf; application/pdf
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This dissertation examines the potential of land use as a mobility tool to affect travel, a subject of long and ongoing policy debate. Land use strategies such as densification, mixed-use development, and non-driving-oriented design have been recommended by many to reduce vehicle travel. Others argue that land use is an ineffective mobility tool; direct and effectual policies are economic measures such as pricing. This dissertation suggests that either is necessary but not sufficient. To achieve the environmental and social objectives of transportation, the two should act together as complements. The mobility role of land use is to modify transportation supply and to support expansion of travel choices, whereas pricing is to manage and redirect vehicle travel demand. This dissertation presents two case studies: Metropolitan Boston and Hong Kong. Taking a disaggregate approach, the empirical analysis builds on the economic choice theory and focuses on three aspects of travel behavior: mode choice, trip frequency and automobile dependence. Logit models of mode choice and trip frequency are estimated to examine the importance and magnitude of land use affecting travel when travel costs and socio-demographic factors are controlled for.; (cont.) The effects of densification and pricing on mode choice are extrapolated with incremental logit modeling while controlling for the impacts of these policies on individual accessibility...

‣ Electricity Price Forecasting using Sale and Purchase Curves: The X-Model

Ziel, Florian; Steinert, Rick
Fonte: Universidade Cornell Publicador: Universidade Cornell
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica
Publicado em 01/09/2015 Português
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Our paper aims to model and forecast the electricity price in a completely new and promising style. Instead of directly modeling the electricity price as it is usually done in time series or data mining approaches, we model and utilize its true source: the sale and purchase curves of the electricity exchange. We will refer to this new model as X-Model, as almost every deregulated electricity price is simply the result of the intersection of the electricity supply and demand curve at a certain auction. Therefore we show an approach to deal with a tremendous amount of auction data, using a subtle data processing technique as well as dimension reduction and lasso based estimation methods. We incorporate not only several known features, such as seasonal behavior or the impact of other processes like renewable energy, but also completely new elaborated stylized facts of the bidding structure. Our model is able to capture the non-linear behavior of the electricity price, which is especially useful for predicting huge price spikes. Using simulation methods we show how to derive prediction intervals. We describe and show the proposed methods for the day-ahead EPEX spot price of Germany and Austria.; Comment: The paper contains all forecasted days as illustrations in the Appendix

‣ Price and capacity competition in balancing markets with energy storage

Taylor, Josh A.; Mathieu, Johanna L.; Callaway, Duncan S.; Poolla, Kameshwar
Fonte: Universidade Cornell Publicador: Universidade Cornell
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica
Português
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Energy storage can absorb variability from the rising number of wind and solar power producers. Storage is different from the conventional generators that have traditionally balanced supply and demand on fast time scales due to its hard energy capacity constraints, dynamic coupling, and low marginal costs. These differences are leading system operators to propose new mechanisms for enabling storage to participate in reserve and real-time energy markets. The persistence of market power and gaming in electricity markets suggests that these changes will expose new vulnerabilities. We develop a new model of strategic behavior among storages in energy balancing markets. Our model is a two-stage game that generalizes a classic model of capacity followed by Bertrand-Edgeworth price competition by explicitly modeling storage dynamics and uncertainty in the pricing stage. By applying the model to balancing markets with storage, we are able to compare capacity and energy-based pricing schemes, and to analyze the dynamic effects of the market horizon and energy losses due to leakage. Our first key finding is that capacity pricing leads to higher prices and higher capacity commitments, and that energy pricing leads to lower, randomized prices and lower capacity commitments. Second...

‣ Matching Supply and Demand in Production-Inventory Systems: Asymptotics and Optimization

Lu, Yingdong; Squillante, Mark S.; Yao, David D.
Fonte: Universidade Cornell Publicador: Universidade Cornell
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica
Publicado em 28/01/2015 Português
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We consider a general class of high-volume, fast-moving production-inventory systems based on both lost-sales and backorder inventory models. Such systems require a fundamental understanding of the asymptotic behavior of key performance measures under various supply strategies, as well as the pre-planning of these strategies. Our analysis relies on a thorough study of the asymptotic behavior of a random walk with power drift, which is of independent interest. In addition to providing key insights, our analysis leads to approximations of the corresponding optimization problem that yield simple solutions which are close to optimal. We also establish an equivalence between the lost-sales and backorder models when both have the same penalty cost that becomes large.

‣ Bidding at Sequential First-Price Auctions with(out) Supply Uncertainty: A Laboratory Analysis

Neugebauer, Tibor; Pezanis-Christou, Paul
Fonte: Conselho Superior de Investigações Científicas Publicador: Conselho Superior de Investigações Científicas
Tipo: Documento de trabajo
Português
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We report on a series of experiments that test the effects of an uncertain supply on the formation of bids and prices in sequential first-price auctions with private-independent values and unit-demands. Supply is assumed uncertain when buyers do not know the exact number of units to be sold (i.e., the length of the sequence). Although we observe a non-monotone behavior when supply is certain and an important overbidding, the data qualitatively support our price trend predictions and the risk neutral Nash equilibrium model of bidding for the last stage of a sequence, whether supply is certain or not. Our study shows that behavior in these markets changes significantly with the presence of an uncertain supply, and that it can be explained by assuming that bidders formulate pessimistic beliefs about the occurrence of another stage.; Financial support from the University of Valencia (project GV98_08/2960) and from a EU-TMR ENDEAR Network Grant (FMRX-CT98-0238) is gratefully acknowledged.

‣ The Microfoundations of Housing Market Dynamics

Murphy, Alvin Denis
Fonte: Universidade Duke Publicador: Universidade Duke
Tipo: Dissertação Formato: 2276453 bytes; application/pdf
Publicado em 24/04/2008 Português
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The goal of this dissertation is to provide a coherent and computationally feasible basis for the analysis of the dynamics of both housing supply and demand from a microeconomics perspective. The dissertation includes two papers which incorporate unique micro data with new methodological approaches to examine housing market dynamics. The first paper models the development decisions of land owners as a dynamic discrete choice problem to recover the primitives of housing supply. The second paper develops a new methodology for dynamically estimating the demand for durable goods, such as housing, when the choice set is large.

In the first paper, using the new data set discussed above, I develop and estimate the first dynamic microeconometric model of supply. Parcel owners maximize the discounted sum of expected per-period profits by choosing the optimal time and nature of construction. In addition to current profits, the owners of land also take into account their expectations about future returns to development, balancing expected future prices against expected future costs. This forward looking behavior is crucial in explaining observed aggregate patterns of construction. Finally, the outcomes generated by the parcel owners' profit maximizing behavior...

‣ Global implications of monetary and fiscal policy rules in the EMU

Haber, Gottfried; Neck, Reinhard; McKibbin, Warwick
Fonte: Kluwer Academic Publishers Publicador: Kluwer Academic Publishers
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica
Português
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In order to analyze successful strategies for economic policy in a global environment both international interdependencies and the strategic behavior of "global players" must be considered. We use a global model of the world economy (the MSG2 Model) to show the effects of dynamic policy optimization in the presence of various supply and demand shocks to different world regions. We show that fixed rules are generally superior for supply shocks, while demand shocks call for more active or discretionary policies.

‣ El Comportamiento de la Oferta y la Demanda en el Mercado Brasileño de Cruceros con Base en el Concepto del Ciclo de Vida del Producto Turístico; Supply and Demand Behavior in the Brazilian Cruise Market Based on the Concept of the Tourism Product Life Cycle; O Comportamento da Oferta e da Demanda no Mercado Brasileiro de Cruzeiros Marítimos com Base no Conceito do Ciclo de Vida do Produto Turístico

Ramôa, Carlos Eduardo de Almeida; Flores, Luiz Carlos da Silva
Fonte: Universidade de São Paulo. Escola de Comunicações e Artes Publicador: Universidade de São Paulo. Escola de Comunicações e Artes
Tipo: info:eu-repo/semantics/article; info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion; ; ; ; ; ; Formato: application/pdf
Publicado em 01/03/2015 Português
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El turismo de crucero ha pasado por diversas etapas del ciclo de vida del producto turístico desde la apertura de los puertos de cruceros de cabotaje en Brasil. Después de un rápido aumento de la demanda, el mercado brasileño ha mostrado tasas de crecimiento negativas a diferencia de lo que ocurre en el mercado internacional, especialmente en Estados Unidos y Europa. Este estudio, exploratorio y descriptivo, utiliza análisis descriptivo para cumplir con el objetivo general, que es el de identificar como ha sido el comportamiento de la oferta y de la demanda de cruceros en Brasil, y los objetivos específicos: (1) identificar en qué etapa están la oferta y la demanda de cruceros oceánicos en Brasil con respecto al ciclo de vida de producto turístico y (2) si el comportamiento de la demanda está influenciado por el comportamiento de la oferta en el mercado de cruceros en Brasil, o al revés. Los resultados presentados indican que el mercado brasileño de cruceros se encuentra en la fase de declive del ciclo de vida del producto turístico. También se identificó que la reducción de la oferta de buques condujo a la caída de la demanda, y no el contrario. Por lo tanto, el estudio encontró que el comportamiento de la oferta ha influido en el comportamiento de la demanda de pasajeros en Brasil.; Cruise tourism has gone through various stages of the tourism product life cycle since Brazil has opened its ports for cabotage cruises. After a rapid increase in demand...