Background: Aortic aneurysm and dissection are important causes of death in older people. Ruptured aneurysms show catastrophic fatality rates reaching near 80%. Few population-based mortality studies have been published in the world and none in Brazil. The objective of the present study was to use multiple-cause-of-death methodology in the analysis of mortality trends related to aortic aneurysm and dissection in the state of Sao Paulo, between 1985 and 2009. Methods: We analyzed mortality data from the Sao Paulo State Data Analysis System, selecting all death certificates on which aortic aneurysm and dissection were listed as a cause-of-death. The variables sex, age, season of the year, and underlying, associated or total mentions of causes of death were studied using standardized mortality rates, proportions and historical trends. Statistical analyses were performed by chi-square goodness-of-fit and H Kruskal-Wallis tests, and variance analysis. The joinpoint regression model was used to evaluate changes in age-standardized rates trends. A p value less than 0.05 was regarded as significant. Results: Over a 25-year period, there were 42,615 deaths related to aortic aneurysm and dissection, of which 36,088 (84.7%) were identified as underlying cause and 6...

Objective: To evaluate suicide rates and trends in Sao Paulo by sex, age-strata, and methods. Methods: Data was collected from State registry from 1996 to 2009. Population was estimated using the National Census. We utilized joinpoint regression analysis to explore temporal trends. We also evaluated marital status, ethnicity, birthplace and methods for suicide. Results: In the period analyzed, 6,002 suicides were accrued with a rate of 4.6 per 100,000 (7.5 in men and 2.0 in women); the male-to-female ratio was around 3.7. Trends for men presented a significant decline of 5.3% per year from 1996 to 2002, and a significant increase of 2.5% from 2002 onwards. Women did not present significant changes. For men, the elderly (> 65 years) had a significant reduction of 2.3% per year, while younger men (25-44 years) presented a significant increase of 8.6% from 2004 onwards. Women did not present significant trend changes according to age. Leading suicide methods were hanging and poisoning for men and women, respectively. Other analyses showed an increased suicide risk ratio for singles and foreigners. Conclusions: Specific epidemiological trends for suicide in the city of Sao Paulo that warrant further investigation were identified. High-risk groups - such as immigrants - could benefit from targeted strategies of suicide prevention.

Background: Aortic aneurysm and dissection are important causes of death in older people. Ruptured aneurysms show catastrophic fatality rates reaching near 80%. Few population-based mortality studies have been published in the world and none in Brazil. The objective of the present study was to use multiple-cause-of-death methodology in the analysis of mortality trends related to aortic aneurysm and dissection in the state of Sao Paulo, between 1985 and 2009. Methods: We analyzed mortality data from the Sao Paulo State Data Analysis System, selecting all death certificates on which aortic aneurysm and dissection were listed as a cause-of-death. The variables sex, age, season of the year, and underlying, associated or total mentions of causes of death were studied using standardized mortality rates, proportions and historical trends. Statistical analyses were performed by chi-square goodness-of-fit and H Kruskal-Wallis tests, and variance analysis. The joinpoint regression model was used to evaluate changes in age-standardized rates trends. A p value less than 0.05 was regarded as significant. Results: Over a 25-year period, there were 42,615 deaths related to aortic aneurysm and dissection, of which 36,088 (84.7%) were identified as underlying cause and 6...

Introdução: A cada ano, são diagnosticados mais de um milhão de novos casos de câncer de mama em mulheres no mundo. Os países mais desenvolvidos apresentam as maiores incidências, enquanto a mortalidade é maior nos países em desenvolvimento. No Brasil, as incidências mais elevadas se localizam nas regiões Sul e Sudeste. Nos últimos cinco anos, a incidência de câncer de mama aumentou cerca de 30 por cento nos países do ocidente, porém, a partir do ano 2000, observa-se ligeiro decréscimo na mortalidade. A investigação simultânea sobre a incidência e a mortalidade pode fornecer informações sobre a etiologia da doença, e a análise dos efeitos da idade, período e da coorte facilita a compreensão dos mecanismos responsáveis pela variação nas tendências. Objetivos: Analisar as tendências da incidência e da mortalidade por câncer de mama feminino no município de São Paulo, segundo os efeitos da idade, período e coorte. Métodos: Foram analisadas a incidência no período de 1997 a 2005, e a mortalidade no período de 1982 a 2005. Os dados foram obtidos no Registro de Câncer de Base Populacional de São Paulo, no Sistema de Mortalidade do Ministério da Saúde (SIM-MS) e no Instituto Brasileiro Geografia e Estatística (IBGE). Os efeitos da idade...

Esta pesquisa é um estudo exploratório, descritivo, de natureza prospectiva, de abordagem quanti-qualitativa. Os objetivos foram: identificar a percepção de gestores de Hospitais Universitários da cidade de São Paulo, em relação aos fatores que estariam produzindo novas tendências no gerenciamento de pessoas e quais mudanças projetam nos modelos de gestão de pessoas; identificar os focos de atenção e as dificuldades quanto ao gerenciamento de políticas de gestão de pessoas, mediante as tendências no macrocontexto e mapear as lacunas entre as tendências identificadas, focos de atenção e dificuldades e as competências requeridas para gestores que atuam no âmbito da gestão dos hospitais universitários; formular propostas nas quais o desenvolvimento dos gestores de pessoas na área da saúde esteja alinhado às novas demandas da próxima década. O estudo teve como cenário três HUs e contou com a participação de nível estratégico. Para atingir os objetivos formulados, foi empregada a técnica Delphi, com a finalidade de melhor compreender o cenário atual e a tendência na gestão de pessoas em hospitais universitários. Os resultados mostraram que a Gestão de Pessoas sofrerá mudanças significativas nos próximos 10 anos (86...

The objective of this work is to analyze the total ozone column (TOC) trends over the Iberian Peninsula during the last 30 years (1979e2008). This study is carried out using TOC data derived from the Multi Sensor Reanalysis (MSR), Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS) and Global Ozone Monitoring Experiment (GOME). The analysis of the long-term ozone trends is focused on two sub-periods (1979e1994 and 1995e2008) in order to detect changes in the ozone trend pattern. The results show that the ozone depletionwas statistically significant at the 95% confidence level during the first sub-period (1979e1994) in the entire region of study (except in the Southerner locations), with linear trends from 4.5%/decade to 2.5%/decade. These linear trends present a clear dependence on latitude, being higher for the Northerner locations than for the Southerner. By contrast, the analysis of the second sub-period of study (1995e2008) shows positive ozone trends over the Iberian Peninsula, with the highest values (þ2.5%/decade) in the Northeast of this region. This result indicates that the ozone layer may be responding as expected to the controls on ozone-depleting substances imposed by theMontreal Protocol. Additionally, a seasonal trend analysis is performed using the average of the deseasonalized monthly values for each season of the year. The seasonal analysis showed that the negative ozone trends during the first sub-period of study were statistically significant in the spring and winter...

The spatial distribution of recent mean temperature trends over Spain during the period 1961–2006 at monthly, seasonal and annual time scale is carried out in this study by applying various statistical tools to data from 473 weather stations. The magnitude of trends was derived from the slopes of the linear trends using ordinary least-square fitting. The non-parametric Mann–Kendall test was used to determine the statistical significance of trends. Maps of surface temperature trends were generated by applying a geostatistical interpolation technique to visualize the detected tendencies. This study reveals that temperature has generally increased during all months and seasons of the year over the last four decades. More than 60% of whole Spain has evidenced significant positive trends in March, June, August, spring and summer. This percentage diminishes around 40% in April, May and December. Annual temperature has significantly risen in 100% of Spain of around 0.1–0.2 °C/decade according to the Fourth Assessment Report of the IPCC.

OBJECTIVE: International data have reported prostate cancer as the most frequent among men, and the third highest in mortality. A rise in incidence has been observed in the course of recent decades, probably influenced by early detection, mainly in asymptomatic men, through regular screening with prostate-specific antigen (PSA) testing. The purpose of this study was to contribute to information on trends in prostate cancer incidence and mortality using population-based data. METHODS: This was an exploratory ecological study of time trends, aiming at describing changes in prostate cancer incidence and mortality in Aracaju, Sergipe, Brazil, from 1996 to 2006. Rates were calculated from data of the Registro de Câncer de Base Populacional de Aracaju. Trends were calculated using the Joinpoint Regression Program. RESULTS: For the study period, 1,490 incident cases and 334 deaths were included. Incident cases were more common after 50 years of age, and deaths after 55 years. Age-standardized incidence rates of 46.6 and 50.0/100,000 were observed in the early years of the series, and then progressively increased, with rates higher than 100.0/100,000 in later years. For mortality, age-standardized rates varied from 21.6 and 16.6/100,000 to 24.1 and 28.9/100...

Quantifying patterns of temporal trends in species assemblages is an important analytical challenge in community ecology. We describe methods of analysis that can be applied to a matrix of counts of individuals that is organized by species (rows) and time-ordered sampling periods (columns). We first developed a bootstrapping procedure to test the null hypothesis of random sampling from a stationary species abundance distribution with temporally varying sampling probabilities. This procedure can be modified to account for undetected species. We next developed a hierarchical model to estimate species-specific trends in abundance while accounting for species-specific probabilities of detection. 51 We analyzed two long-term data sets on stream fishes and grassland insects to demonstrate these methods. For both assemblages, the bootstrap test indicated that temporal trends in abundance were more heterogeneous than expected under the null model. We used the hierarchical model to estimate trends in abundance and identified sets of species in each assemblage that were steadily increasing, decreasing, or remaining constant in abundance over more than a decade of standardized annual surveys. Our methods of analysis are broadly applicable to other ecological data sets...

Introduction: Breast cancer is the principal cause of death from cancer in women in Brazil and worldwide. Brazil has important social differences, therefore, to understand the mortality rates for female breast cancer, it is necessary to look at the issue of spatial inequalities in income and opportunities characteristic of Brazilian society. Aim: To describe the temporal evolution of breast cancer mortality in Brazil, in its macro-regions and Federal States from 1980 to 2009. Materials and Methods: Ecological time series, using data on deaths from breast cancer registered in the Mortality Information System (SIM/MOH) and the data of population census by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE). Mortality trends analysis was performed using Poisson s regression model. Results: for Brazil it was observed a 0.4% stabilization trend in women breast cancer mortality since 1994 (95% CI -01 0.8; p = 0.08). Southeast regions showed decreasing trends -0.9% (95% CI -1.6 -0.2; p = 0.01), in South it was observed a -0.3% stabilization (95% CI -1.0 0.3; p = 0.31), whereas the Northeast region stands out with a higher 5.3% increasing trends per year (95% CI 3.9 6.7; p <0.01). A significant decreasing mortality trend was observed in São Paulo -1.9% (95% CI -2.9 -0.9; p < 0.01)...

Characterization of spatial and temporal variability in water flow and solute transport to foster better land management in salt-affected landscapes requires direct hydrological observation, for example using suites of nested piezometers and dip wells. Such methods are costly to install and produce data with low spatial density, so are not ideal for supporting within-field scale land management decisions. We present a new methodology to characterize water-flow systems in salt-affected landscapes using trends in shallow (<1 m) down-profile soil salinity based on electrical conductivity of saturated paste extract (ECse) and salts (that is the water extractable major ions of Ca, K, Mg, Na, P, Cl and S mg/kg) from a range of topographic settings. This involved coupling seasonal (late winter and late summer) salinity trends with clay percent (for soil morphology) and terrain patterns to understand the connectivity between perched and deep groundwater systems in a 120 ha catchment in the Mount Lofty Ranges, South Australia. From investigations at 19 sites in the catchment comprising toposequences or paired sites (in close proximity, but in different topographic settings), soil salinity trends revealed four hydro-pedological systems: (i) a perched freshwater system with no hydraulic connectivity to the deep groundwater in upper slopes...

Universities are constantly changing, but some global trends are likely to alter the higher education scenario as we know it, and pose a challenge to universities if they are to adapt to a new reality. This paper focuses on some of those major trends. More specifically, it deals with the nature, characteristics and foreseeable consequences of the following five trends: renewal of a demand for teaching, educational models and qualifications; increase in educational opportunities and in transnational education and internationalisation; consolidation of new cooperation and competence schemes at university; emergence of digital education; and transformation of financing and organisation schemes and the need for efficient management. The second part of the paper reflects upon the current situation and some of the problems Spanish universities are facing, and puts forward a number of proposals for Spanish higher education aimed at promoting a reform and an adjustment to global trends.; Las universidades están en permanente transformación, pero ahora se perciben tendencias globales que pueden alterar profundamente el escenario universitario tal como lo conocemos y que enfrentan a las instituciones universitarias a importantes retos para adaptarse a esos nuevos escenarios y cambios. El artículo dedica su primera parte a realizar un recorrido por algunas de esas principales tendencias. En particular se aborda la naturaleza...

PURPOSE: To examine breast cancer (BC) incidence trends in relation to mammographic screening and risk factor prevalence in South Australia (SA). MATERIALS AND METHODS: Trends in annual BC incidence rates were calculated using direct standardisation and compared with projected incidence derived from Poisson regression analysis of pre-screening rates. Annual percentage change and change time points were estimated using Joinpoint software. Biennial mammography screening participation rates were calculated using data from BreastScreen SA. Trends in overweight/obesity, alcohol use and hormone replacement therapy (HRT) use were examined using 1991-2009 Health Omnibus Survey data. Trends in total fertility were examined using data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics. RESULTS: BC incidence increased around the time BreastScreen commenced and then stabilised in the mid-1990s. However rates have remained higher than projected, even though the proportion and age distribution of first time screening attendees stabilised around 1998. A decrease in BC incidence was observed among women aged 50-59yrs from the late-1990's but not among older women. Obesity and alcohol use have increased steadily in all age groups, while HRT use declined sharply from the late-1990s. CONCLUSIONS: BC incidence has remained higher than projected since mammography screening began. The sustained elevation is likely to be due to lead time effects...

8 pages, 5 figures.-- Available online Sep 28, 2007.-- Issue title: "Mediterranean climate: trends, variability and change".-- Full-text version available Open Access at: http://www.icm.csic.es/files/oce/almacen/papers/AR-2008-21.pdf; We analyse hydrographic, meteorological and sea level time series in the continental shelves of Málaga Bay and L'Estartit, in the South and North Western Mediterranean. We have detected an important reduction of the warming rates reported for the 90s decade, showing that the warming process of the Mediterranean is superimposed on several years lasting oscillations. These accelerations or interruptions, typically account for a fraction of the total trend, and therefore they are not able to obscure the warming detection if the time series are long enough. On the other hand, they can produce artificial results if the time series are short when compared with the length of these cycles. The warming of the shelf waters, its acceleration during the 90s and the reversal during the beginning of the XXI century, are also observed in air temperature time series along the Spanish Mediterranean. We have also checked the influence of the warming acceleration/disruption on the sea level rise. Mean sea level trends are around 1 mm/yr when long time series are analysed...

Natural and anthropogenic activities cause injured or dead sea turtles to wash ashore or strand along coastlines. In North Carolina, the NC Wildlife Resources Commission collects stranding information on sea turtles as part of the Sea Turtle Stranding and Salvage Network, which was formed in 1980. In this study, I characterized temporal and spatial trends in sea turtle strandings in North Carolina. I described temporal trends in sea turtle strandings by year, season, sex, cause of death (if known), and mean body size, overall and by species. I also looked at spatial trends in stranding locations to determine if they were uniformly or aggregately distributed, overall and seasonally, by dividing the shoreline into 10 km bins and creating histograms. Stranding numbers have increased over the past 23 years, but seem consistent since 1995 when effort is believed to have been standardized. Strandings generally increased from May through July as well as from November to December. For turtles whose sex was reliably classified by observers, all species except leatherbacks exhibited a heavy female bias; leatherbacks showed a male bias. Mean size of strandings per species appears roughly constant. With the exception of leatherbacks whose mean stranding size corresponded with adults...

Background: In Australia, as elsewhere in the developed world, researchers and policy makers have expressed concern about rising rates of obesity. Explanations for the increasing weight of the Australian population have focused on both declining levels of physical activity and changes in food consumption patterns. Methods: The primary aim of our study was to determine the views of obesity, dietary and physical activity experts, about the most important social trends that have contributed to Australia's obesogenic environment over the last 50 years. We used a modified Delphi technique to successfully contact 50 such experts to obtain their views on this topic. The process involved a semi-structured interview with each expert to identify the trends and then a round of ranking of the trends by these experts. A second aim was to comment on the utility of expert opinion in public policy. Results: The experts identified the most important social trends as 'escalating car reliance', 'increasing "busy-ness" and lack of time' and 'rising use of convenience and pre-prepared food'. Because we asked experts to explain their responses, a diversity of opinion emerged on both the aetiology of these trends and how the environment is embodied to produce rising levels of obesity. Conclusion: We reflect on the implications of this dissensus for the utility of expert opinion in public policy and argue that one way through the smorgasboard of competing expert explanations for health differentials...

Do regions with higher working age populations grow faster? This paper examines this question using data from Russian regions and finds evidence that demographic trends influence regional growth convergence. In other words, keeping other factors constant, poorer regions grow faster than richer regions, and some of the growth convergence is explained by demographic changes: faster growth in poor regions in the past was related in part to more favorable demographic trends. This finding has important consequences for Russia. If the demographic trends in poorer regions worsen in the future, this could dampen economic convergence. Unless there are significant increases in labor productivity or additions to the labor force through migration, growth in Russian regions will moderate as the Russian population shrinks and ages in the coming decades.

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.13071/regec.2317-5087.2012.1.1.3908.55-73The paper begins by showing concepts related to foresight and competitive intelligence processes and its respective methodologies, in order to illustrate how these methods can be applied in a business R&D center, through the implantation of an observatory of technological trends. The major aspects and variables considered in the construction of an observatory of trends are evidenced, indicating the role of foresight and competitive intelligence processes, and also emphasizing challenges and potential benefits that can be experienced by institutions in the moment of the implementation of observatories of trends in business R&D centers.  The paper intends to indicate the possibility of using the concept of observatory of trends in business R&D centers in the technological management. It is possible to verify the importance of monitoring current actions through competitive intelligence techniques, and prospecting aspects related to future actions through foresight techniques, according to the specificities of each area.; DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.13071/regec.2317-5087.2012.1.1.3908.55-73O artigo inicia-se apresentando os conceitos relacionados aos processos de foresight e inteligência competitiva...

Observed trends in seasonal and annual total rainfall, number of rain days and daily maximum and minimum temperature were calculated for a number of stations in South Africa for the period 1960-2010. Statistically significant decreases in rainfall and the number of rain days are shown over the central and northeastern parts of the country in the autumn months and significant increases in the number of rain days around the southern Drakensberg are evident in spring and summer. Maximum temperatures have increased significantly throughout the country for all seasons and increases in minimum temperatures are shown for most of the country. A notable exception is the central interior, where minimum temperatures have decreased significantly. Regionally aggregated trends for six water management zones covering the entire country are not evident for total rainfall, but there are some significant trends for the number of rain days. Temperature in these zones has increased significantly for most seasons, with the exception of the central interior. Comparison of the observed trends with statistically downscaled global climate model simulations reveals that the models do not represent the observed rainfall changes nor the cooling trend of minimum temperature in the central interior. Although this result does not rule out the possibility of attributing observed local changes in rainfall to anthropogenically forced global change...

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate how often coding changes between and within revisions of the International Classification of Diseases (ICD) complicate the description of long-term trends in cause-specific mortality. METHODS: Data on cause-specific mortality between 1950 and 1999 for men and women aged 60 and older were obtained from Denmark, England and Wales, Finland, the Netherlands, Norway and Sweden. Data were obtained by five-year age groups. We constructed a concordance table using three-digit ICD codes. In addition we evaluated the occurrence of mortality discontinuities by visually inspecting cause-specific trends and country-specific background information. Evaluation was also based on quantification of the discontinuities using a Poisson regression model (including period splines). We compared the observed trends in cause-specific mortality with the trends after adjustment for the discontinuities caused by changes to coding. FINDINGS: In 45 out of 416 (10.8 %) instances of ICD revisions to cause-specific mortality codes, significant discontinuities that were regarded as being due to ICD revisions remained. The revisions from ICD-6 and ICD-7 to ICD-8 and a wide range of causes of death, with the exception of the specific cancers, were especially affected. Incidental changes in coding rules were also important causes of discontinuities in trends in cause-specific mortality...