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‣ Essays on the general equilibrium effects of barriers to trade on economic growth, foreign trade and the location of economic activity in Brazil

Ferraz, Lucas Pedreira do Couto
Fonte: Fundação Getúlio Vargas Publicador: Fundação Getúlio Vargas
Tipo: Tese de Doutorado
Português
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This work presents a fully operational interstate CGE model implemented for the Brazilian economy that tries to quantify both the role of barriers to trade on economic growth and foreign trade performance and how the distribution of the economic activity may change as the country opens up to foreign trade. Among the distinctive features embedded in the model, modeling of external scale economies, port efficiency and land-maritime transport costs provides an innovative way of dealing explicitly with theoretical issues related to integrated regional systems. In order to illustrate the role played by the quality of infrastructure and geography on the country‟s foreign and interregional trade performance, a set of simulations is presented where barriers to trade are significantly reduced. The relative importance of trade policy, port efficiency and land-maritime transport costs for the country trade relations and regional growth is then detailed and quantified, considering both short run as well as long run scenarios. A final set of simulations shed some light on the effects of liberal trade policies on regional inequality, where the manufacturing sector in the state of São Paulo, taken as the core of industrial activity in the country...

‣ Analysis of Interaction between Air Transportation and Economic Activity

Ishutkina, Masha; Hansman, R. John
Fonte: MIT - Massachusetts Institute of Technology Publicador: MIT - Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Tipo: Relatório
Português
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This paper uses both world-wide and country-level analysis to describe the relationship between air transportation and economic activity. In particular, we describe how economic, infrastructural, institutional and geographic factors affect the mapping of cargo and passenger flows to the enabled flows of labor, knowledge, investment, remittances, tourism and goods. We also identify the role of government and exogenous drivers in this relationship. We illustrate the relationship using several examples: Dubai in the United Arab Emirates, Jamaica, China and India.

‣ Analysis of the Interaction Between Air Transportation and Economic Activity: A Worldwide Perspective

Hansman, R. John; Ishutkina, Mariya
Fonte: MIT - Massachusetts Institute of Technology Publicador: MIT - Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Tipo: Relatório
Português
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Air transportation usage and economic activity are interdependent. Air transportation provides employment and enables certain economic activities which are dependent on the availability of air transportation services. The economy, in turn, drives the demand for air transportation services resulting in the feedback relationship between the two. The objective of this work is to contribute to the understanding of the relationship between air transportation and economic activity. More specifically, this work seeks to (1) develop a feedback model to describe the relationship between air transportation and economic activity and (2) identify factors which stimulate or suppress air transportation development. To achieve these objectives this work uses an exploratory research method which combines literature review, aggregate data and case study analyses. First, this work uses data at the individual country level to identify different types of growth patterns between air transportation passengers and GDP for 139 countries. This analysis is then used to identify twenty-two representative countries which span a range of possible interaction behaviors, geographies and income categories. The case study analysis at the individual country level is performed to describe the air transportation impact for each individual economy. These findings help develop a feedback model which describes the relationship between air transportation and economic activity. Specifically...

‣ Argentina : Sources of Growth, Seeking Sustained Economic Growth with Social Equity

World Bank
Fonte: Washington, DC Publicador: Washington, DC
Português
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This report attempts to analyze selected topics, chosen in collaboration with the Argentine authorities, regarding the inter-linkages between economic growth, income distribution and poverty, as well as the respective roles of these factors in explaining the historical underperformance of the Argentine economy. The report aims to identify relevant issues for policy formulation and further economic work. Its emphasis is on longer-term structural factors which are thought to determine productivity and income distribution. The report is organized as follows. Chapter 2 briefly reviews the time-dynamics o f economic growth, poverty and inequality in Argentina. Sections of the chapter study the evolution of poverty and inequality. It is noted that inequality has increased dramatically, though not monotonically, since 1990 and, notably, increases in inequality were observed in periods of both growth and recession. Chapter 3 reviews the latest episode o f economic volatility in Argentina, a period that started with the sharp decline o f economic activity in 2002 and continued with a recovery since 2003. Special attention is paid to the impact of this recent volatility on economic growth, poverty and inequality. The sections study the social impact of the recent crisis and recovery; employing different methodologies to test whether the recent recovery was pro-poor. It also analyzes the recession and recovery at the sector level...

‣ EU11 Regular Economic Report : Coping with External Headwinds

World Bank
Fonte: Washington, DC Publicador: Washington, DC
Português
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This study claims that despite the challenging external environment, EU11 countries did well in 2011. First, economic growth strengthened to above 3 percent (from around 2 percent in 2010) and the region fully recovered its output losses from the global financial crisis. Second, fiscal measures delivered reduction of around 3 percent of GDP in the EU11 average fiscal deficit. Third, the financial sector remained resilient to renewed concerns about negative feedback loops between insecure sovereign debtors and fragile financial markets. However, the good performance conceals important shifts in economic sentiment that occurred during the year. While the growth momentum was still strong in the first half of 2011, it slowed toward the end of the year, as the region started to feel the impact of lingering concerns about European sovereign-debt markets, creeping oil prices, and the global slowdown. With the downward trend in economic activity, labor markets remained slack. Unemployment rates hovered around those recorded in the midst of the global financial crisis with sluggish employment growth. The paper points out that the European economic growth model has delivered unprecedented welfare to the continent over the last half century. In spite of its remarkable success...

‣ Reshaping Economic Geography of East Africa : From Regional to Global Integration (Vol. 1 of 2)

World Bank
Fonte: Washington, DC Publicador: Washington, DC
Português
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56.871006%
Five East African countries Burundi, Kenya, Rwanda, Tanzania, and Uganda have made solid progress on integrating regionally in the East African Community (EAC) since 1999. Such advances are crucial, as integration in East Africa has the potential for higher than usual benefits: Burundi, Rwanda, and Uganda are landlocked, with very high costs to their economies. Successful integration will transform the five countries into one coastal, regional economy, slashing such costs. Looking at the East African integration through the lens of economic geography helps to improve sequencing of the integration process and to develop new policies to complement ongoing efforts, maximizing their benefits. Reducing disparities in provision of social services will increase the chances of workers from the inland parts of the EAC to find jobs, especially as administrative obstacles to labor mobility are being removed under the Common Market Protocol. Implementing and deepening the current program of regional infrastructure improvements will ensure that consumers and producers throughout the region are better connected to each other and to global markets. Integration policies facilitating greater economic activity in the coastal areas will help the EAC take advantage of the global demand for manufactured goods and thus to promote employment. That will also generate substantial demand for services and agricultural goods produced inland...

‣ Kazakhstan : Solid Growth, Unsettled Global Environment - Kazakhstan Economic Update, Fall 2013

World Bank
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
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While the world economy continues to be unsettled, economic growth in Kazakhstan has been solid. Strong domestic demand, coupled with increased oil output and favorable weather conditions, is likely to boost economic growth. An expansion of credit was the key driver of growth in private consumption and investment activity in 2013. Income growth in the country had a positive impact on poverty indicators, with prosperity shared broadly. Prudent macroeconomic policy has helped the economic performance. Prospects of additional oil output with Kashagan coming on stream will help boost economic activity in the coming years and increase Kazakhstan s vulnerability to external shocks unless the country succeeds in diversifying its endowments from natural resources to stronger institutions and higher quality human capital. In his recent speech on the strategic vision Kazakhstan-2050, the President of Kazakhstan highlighted the need to diversify the endowments of the country to achieve its development objectives. He reiterated the key development priorities for the country to become one of the top 30 developed countries by 2050. Trade policy will remain a central instrument to help the country integrate into the global economy...

‣ EU11 Regular Economic Report, Issue #26, January 2013

World Bank
Fonte: Washington, DC Publicador: Washington, DC
Português
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The economic report comprises two parts: a macroeconomic report and a special topic on the issue of economic policy interest. According to the first part, in 2012 the EU11 economies have outperformed the rest of the European Union (EU). In the middle of a recession in the Euro area, the EU11 region is set to expand by about 1 percent in 2012. However, the recession in the Euro area continues to dampen the EU11 economic performance. With an uncertain economic outlook in the medium term, the EU11 need to pursue decisive economic policies on two fronts to safeguard and accelerate their growth momentum. First, a prudent macro-policy stance should continue to shore up the confidence of financial markets. Second, the medium-term economic growth potential of the EU11 can only be realized if structural barriers to economic activity are removed. Second, the current and projected low fertility levels for Europe imply that the region will go through an unprecedented process of population aging, causing dramatic changes in the age structure of European societies. These changes in the age structure can have significant effects on economic growth. This paper analyzes the quantitative impact of the projected demographic changes on economic growth through their effect on the factors of production...

‣ Location, Concentration, and Performance of Economic Activity in Brazil

Lall, Somik V.; Funderburg, Richard; Yepes, Tito
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Português
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What are the prospects for economic development in lagging sub-national regions? What are the roles of public infrastructure investments and fiscal incentives in influencing the location and performance of industrial activity? To examine these questions, the authors estimate a spatial profit function for industrial activity in Brazil that explicitly incorporates infrastructure improvements and fiscal incentives in the cost structure of individual firms. The authors use firm level data from the 2001 annual industrial survey along with spatially disaggregated regional data and find that there are considerable cost savings from being located in areas with relatively lower transport costs to reach large markets. In comparison, fiscal incentives, such as tax expenditures, have modest effects in terms of influencing firm level costs. Although the results suggest that firms benefit from being in locations with good access to markets, the authors do not suggest that improving interregional connectivity would necessarily assist lagging regions. In the short run...

‣ Lebanon Economic Monitor, Spring 2015

World Bank
Fonte: Washington, DC Publicador: Washington, DC
Tipo: Relatório
Português
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The Lebanon Economic Monitor provides an update on key economic developments and policies over the past six months. It also presents findings from recent World Bank work on Lebanon. It places them in a longer-term and global context, and assesses the implications of these developments and other changes in policy on the outlook for Lebanon. Lebanon continues to be impacted by the domestic political stalemate and regional turmoil, particularly along its border with Syria. Economic activity picked up in the second half of 2014. Stronger economic performance and lower oil prices pushed real GDP growth to an estimated 2.0 percent in 2014, compared to 0.9 percent in 2013. One-off cosmetic and unsustainable measures rather than policy actions helped improve the fiscal balance in 2014. We estimate the overall fiscal deficit to have declined by 2.3 percentage points. Declining imports lead an improvement in the current account balance. In 2014, a fall in merchandize imports induced a 4.4 pp reduction in the current account deficit to a still-elevated 22.2 percent of GDP. This trend is projected to continue in 2015 helped by falling oil prices and a depreciating euro...

‣ China Economic Update, June 2014

Smits, Karlis; Hu, Bingjie; Luo, Binglie; Ollero, Tony; Vashakmadze, Ekaterine; Rohland, Klaus; Shetty, Sudhir; Hoftman, Bert; Goh, Chorching
Fonte: World Bank, Beijing Publicador: World Bank, Beijing
Tipo: Relatório
Português
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Chinas economic growth is gradually slowing as the structural transformation of the economy continues. Output grew by 7.7 percent in 2013, matching its 2012 growth rate and exceeding the governments 7.5 percent indicative target. In recent months economic activity, including industrial production, started to show signs of acceleration. The recent acceleration, expected to continue into the next two quarters, is partly reflecting the effect of new growth-supporting measures, robust consumption, and a recovery of external demand. Chinas growth will continue to moderate over the medium term, and the structural shifts will become more evident. Growth in China is expected to decrease marginally to 7.6 percent in 2014 and 7.5 percent in 2015, from 7.7 percent in 2013. Fiscal and financial sector reforms are needed to address financial stability risks in the medium run. The first task involves effectively managing the process of rapid credit growth, including less well-regulated shadow banking system. The second involves gradual and orderly deleveraging of large stock of local government debt accumulated through off-budget and quasi-fiscal platforms.

‣ Bright Lights, Big Cities; Measuring National and Sub-National Economic Growth from Outer Space in Africa, with an Application to Kenya and Rwanda

Bundervoet, Tom; Maiyo, Laban; Sanghi, Apurva
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Report; Economic & Sector Work; Economic & Sector Work :: General Economy, Macroeconomics, and Growth Study
Português
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The authors use the night lights (satellite imagery from outer space) approach to estimate subnational 2013 GDP growth and levels for 47 counties in Kenya and 30 districts in Rwanda. Estimating subnational GDP is consequential for three reasons: First, there is strong policy interest in seeing how growth can occur in different parts of countries, so that communities can share in national prosperity and not get left behind. Second, sub-nationals themselves want to understand how they stack up against their neighbors and competitors, and how much they contribute to national GDP. Third, such information could help private investors to better assess where to undertake investments. Using night lights has the advantage of seeing a new (and more accurate) estimation of informal activity, and being independent of official data. However it may underestimate economic activity in sectors that are largely unlit (notably agriculture). Indeed, we find that the association between nightlights and GDP is stronger where unlit agriculture accounts for a smaller part of overall economic activity. With these caveats in mind...

‣ Bright Lights, Big Cities; Measuring National and Subnational Economic Growth in Africa from Outer Space, with an Application to Kenya and Rwanda

Bundervoet, Tom; Maiyo, Laban; Sanghi, Apurva
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Working Paper; Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper; Publications & Research
Português
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This paper uses the night lights (satellite imagery from outer space) approach to estimate growth in and levels of subnational 2013 gross domestic product for 47 counties in Kenya and 30 districts in Rwanda. Estimating subnational gross domestic product is consequential for three reasons. First, there is strong policy interest in how growth can occur in different parts of countries, so that communities can share in national prosperity and not get left behind. Second, subnational entities want to understand how they stack up against their neighbors and competitors, and how much they contribute to national gross domestic product. Third, such information could help private investors to assess where to undertake investments. Using night lights has the advantage of seeing a new and more accurate estimation of informal activity, and being independent of official data. However, the approach may underestimate economic activity in sectors that are largely unlit notably agriculture. For Kenya, the results of the analysis affirm that Nairobi County is the largest contributor to national gross domestic product. However...

‣ Trade and Foreign Exchange Policies in Iran : Reform Agenda, Economic Implications and Impact on the Poor

World Bank
Fonte: Washington, DC Publicador: Washington, DC
Português
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Iran's economic performance in the last two decades has been very disappointing. This is highlighted by the fact that per capita GDP was 16 percent lower in 1998 than in 1979. However, the most important single reason for this poor performance was not any domestic economic policy, but the long and costly war with Iraq. Fluctuations in oil prices and the US embargo also adversely affected the economy. Once the war with Iraq had finished, economic performance began to improve slowly; in the decede ending in 1998 per capita GDP growth was positive, although it averaged only 3 percent per year. Although less important than the war with Iraq, Iran's domestic economic policies have not been conducive to rapid economic growth. Economic performance has been and still is hampered by administered prices; large, poorly targeted subsidies; multiple exchange rates (Which remain important, despite recent progress in reducing disparities among them); trade restrictions; and state domination of economic activity. All banks in Iran are sdtate owned...

‣ Economic Informality : Causes, Costs, and Policies - A Literature Survey

Oviedo, Ana Maria; Thomas, Mark R.; Karakurum-Ozdemir, Kamer
Fonte: World Bank Publicador: World Bank
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Publication; Publications & Research :: Publication
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In this survey the author assemble recent theoretical and empirical advances in the literature on economic informality, analyzing the causes and costs of informality in developed and developing economies. In accordance with recent evidence, the author discusses the nature and the roots of informal economic activity across countries distinguishing between informality as the result of 'exclusion' and 'exit.' The author then provides an extensive review of recent international experience with policies aimed at reducing informality, in particular policies that facilitate the formalization process, create a framework for the transition from informality to formality, lend support to newly created firms, reduce or eliminate inconsistencies across regulation and government agencies, increase information flows, and increase enforcement.

‣ Bulgaria - Ex-post impact assessment of the act on limiting administrative regulation and administration control on economic activity

World Bank
Fonte: World Bank Publicador: World Bank
Tipo: Economic & Sector Work :: Pre-2003 Economic or Sector Report
Português
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The ex-post impact assessment of the Limiting Administrative Regulation and Administrative Control on Economic Activity Act (LARACEAA) is part of the World Bank's support to the Government of Bulgaria through on-going analytical and advisory work in the area of regulatory reform. The purpose of the present ex-post impact assessment of the LARACEAA is to: (i) assess how the Act has been enforced, (ii) identify and estimate the impacts of the Act, and (iii) provide recommendations for amendments to the Act. Chapter one emphasizes the importance of the Act as part of the Bulgarian Government's role in advancing regulatory reform and improving the business environment; gives the scope of the assessment and presents the sources of information utilized; and delineates general limitations of the analysis. Chapter two outlines a policy framework by discussing coherence with the Governmental and European Union (EU) policies, as well as touching upon relevant documents on regulatory reform, followed by analysis of the goal and objectives of the Act...

‣ Oil Price Volatility, Economic Growth and the Hedging Role of Renewable Energy

Rentschler, Jun E.
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper; Publications & Research
Português
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56.927295%
This paper investigates the adverse effects of oil price volatility on economic activity and the extent to which countries can hedge against such effects by using renewable energy. By considering the Realized Volatility of oil prices, rather than following the standard approach of considering oil price shocks in levels, the effects of factor price uncertainty on economic activity are analyzed. Sample countries represent developed and developing, oil importing and exporting and service/industry-based economies (United States, Japan, Germany, South Korea, India, and Malaysia) and thus complement the standard literature's analysis of Western OECD countries. In a vector auto-regressive setting, Granger causality tests, impulse response functions, and variance decompositions show that oil price volatility has more-adverse effects in all sample countries than oil price shocks alone can explain. The paper finds that the sensitivity to oil price volatility varies widely across countries and discusses various factors which may determine the level of sensitivity (such as sectoral composition and the energy mix). This implies that the standard approach of solely considering net oil importer-exporter status is not sufficient. Simulations of volatility shocks in hypothetical energy mixes (with increased renewable shares) illustrate the potential economic benefits resulting from efforts to disconnect the macroeconomy from volatile commodity markets. It is concluded that expanding renewable energy can in principle reduce an economy's vulnerability to oil price volatility...

‣ Economic Integration in the Lower Congo Region : Opening the Kinshasa-Brazzaville Bottleneck

Brulhart, Marius; Hoppe, Mombert
Fonte: Banco Mundial Publicador: Banco Mundial
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper
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This working paper assesses cross-border economic integration in the Lower Congo region. It focuses on the Kinshasa-Brazzaville conurbation, which is projected to become Africa's largest urban area by 2025, and is already serving as the gateway to large hinterlands. Despite their size and proximity, formal economic exchanges between the two cities are extremely limited. The volume of recorded passenger travel between Kinshasa and Brazzaville corresponds to about one-fifth of the volume of traffic between East and West Berlin during the time of the Berlin Wall, and formal trade volumes are derisorily small. As a consequence, the authors find evidence of statistically significant differences in retail prices, indicating unexploited scope for cross-river arbitrage. Through a survey of firms, they find that local traders perceive substantial scope for increasing cross-border economic activity if cross-river trade costs were reduced. Trade in locally produced goods and by small firms would especially benefit from such reductions. Existing high trade costs mainly result from a lack of competition in cross-river transport services...

‣ Nighttime Lights Revisited; The Use of Nighttime Lights Data as a Proxy for Economic Variables

Addison, Douglas; Stewart, Benjamin
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Working Paper; Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper; Publications & Research
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The growing availability of free or inexpensive satellite imagery has inspired many researchers to investigate the use of earth observation data for monitoring economic activity around the world. One of the most popular earth observation data sets is the so-called nighttime lights from the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program. Researchers have found positive correlations between nighttime lights and several economic variables. These correlations are based on data measured in levels, with a cross-section of observations within a single time period across countries or other geographic units. The findings suggest that nighttime lights could be used as a proxy for some economic variables, especially in areas or times where data are weak or unavailable. Yet, logic suggests that nighttime lights cannot serve as a good proxy for monitoring the within-in country growth rates all of these variables. Examples examined this paper include constant price gross domestic product, non-agricultural gross domestic product...

‣ Transportation costs and the spatial organization of economic activity

Redding, Stephen; Turner, Matthew A.
Fonte: Centre for Economic Performance, London School of Economics and Political Science Publicador: Centre for Economic Performance, London School of Economics and Political Science
Tipo: Monograph; NonPeerReviewed Formato: application/pdf
Publicado em /06/2014 Português
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This paper surveys the theoretical and empirical literature on the relationship between the spatial distribution of economic activity and transportation costs. We develop a multi-region model of economic geography that we use to understand the general equilibrium implications of transportation infrastructure improvements within and between locations for wages, population, trade and industry composition. Guided by the predictions of this model, we review the empirical literature on the effects of transportation infrastructure improvements on economic development, paying particular attention to the use of exogenous sources of variation in the construction of transportation infrastructure. We examine evidence from different spatial scales, between and within cities. We outline a variety of areas for further research, including distinguishing reallocation from growth and dynamics.