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‣ Sources of Heavy Metals in Surface Sediments and an Ecological Risk Assessment from Two Adjacent Plateau Reservoirs

Wu, Binbin; Wang, Guoqiang; Wu, Jin; Fu, Qing; Liu, Changming
Fonte: Public Library of Science Publicador: Public Library of Science
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica
Publicado em 10/07/2014 Português
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The concentrations of heavy metals (mercury (Hg), cadmium (Cd), lead (Pb), chromium (Cr), copper (Cu) and arsenic (As)) in surface water and sediments were investigated in two adjacent drinking water reservoirs (Hongfeng and Baihua Reservoirs) on the Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau in Southwest China. Possible pollution sources were identified by spatial and statistical analyses. For both reservoirs, Cd was most likely from industrial activities, and As was from lithogenic sources. For the Hongfeng Reservoir, Pb, Cr and Cu might have originated from mixed sources (traffic pollution and residual effect of former industrial practices), and the sources of Hg included the inflows, which were different for the North (industrial activities) and South (lithogenic origin) Lakes, and atmospheric deposition resulting from coal combustion. For the Baihua Reservoir, the Hg, Cr and Cu were primarily derived from industrial activities, and the Pb originated from traffic pollution. The Hg in the Baihua Reservoir might also have been associated with coal combustion pollution. An analysis of ecological risk using sediment quality guidelines showed that there were moderate toxicological risks for sediment-dwelling organisms in both reservoirs, mainly from Hg and Cr. Ecological risk analysis using the Hakanson index suggested that there was a potential moderate to very high ecological risk to humans from fish in both reservoirs...

‣ Religion, Romance, and Work: Sources of Resilience among Low-Income Men

Fosse, Nathan Edward
Fonte: Harvard University Publicador: Harvard University
Tipo: Thesis or Dissertation
Português
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Despite a resurgence of qualitative research on the cultural aspects of poverty, very few studies have examined how low-income men find resilience in response to the risks of living in severe disadvantage. Moreover, virtually no research has compared how resilience strategies differ between low-income black and white men. These omissions are particularly surprising since low-income men disproportionately experience the life-altering risks of extreme disadvantage, such as criminal punishment, chronic unemployment, drug abuse, and poor physical health. To address these limitations, I draw on recent insights from developmental psychology and from cultural sociology to examine the sources of risk and resilience among black and white men living in severe poverty. Drawing on several years of ethnographic fieldwork, statistical analysis of qualitative data, and on over ninety in-depth interviews with low-income men in Greater Boston, I find striking racial differences in the sources of risk: while white men are more likely to report having a mental health diagnosis and an addiction to opiates, black men are more likely to report living in extremely poor, racially-segregated neighborhoods. Although exposed to different risk factors, I find surprising similarities across racial groups in the sources of resilience: both black and white men respond to the life-changing stressors of extreme poverty by constructing narratives around religious redemption...

‣ What drives hedge fund returns? : models of flows, autocorrelation, optimal size, limits to arbitrage and fund failures

Getmansky, Mila
Fonte: Massachusetts Institute of Technology Publicador: Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Tipo: Tese de Doutorado Formato: 187 p.; 7200947 bytes; 7200754 bytes; application/pdf; application/pdf
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Hedge funds provide an opportunity for investing with few government regulations and high potential returns. Since 1980 this has lead to the dramatic, 25% annual increase in the number of hedge funds, and with nearly $700 billion managed by hedge funds in 2003. However, high risks associated with hedge fund strategies, competition and limited arbitrage opportunities contributed to an annual attrition rate of 7.10%. In this thesis, models were developed and tested that describe characteristics of fund returns, fund flows, optimal size and the life cycles of hedge funds. The TASS hedge fund database provided by the Tremont Company was used for analysis. In Essay One, it was found that hedge fund returns are highly serially correlated compared to the returns of more traditional investment vehicles such as mutual funds. Several sources of such high serial correlation were explored and the research illustrated that the most likely explanation of this derived from asset illiquidity and smoothing of returns. Illiquid securities are not actively traded and market prices are not always available for them. In the case of smoothing, brokers or managers have the flexibility to report partial returns. Consequently, for portfolios of illiquid or smoothed securities...

‣ The stochastic behavior of spot freight rates and the risk premium in bulk shipping

Adland, Roar Os, 1972-
Fonte: Massachusetts Institute of Technology Publicador: Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Tipo: Tese de Doutorado Formato: 146 p.; 5748945 bytes; 5748753 bytes; application/pdf; application/pdf
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66.70202%
The value of virtually any contract or asset in bulk shipping depends primarily on the stochastic dynamics of the forward freight rate curve. In the absence of a liquid and transparent market for forward freight agreements, the dynamics of the forward freight rate curve must be derived from the dynamics of the spot freight rate and the risk premium in the freight market. This thesis is an attempt to improve our understanding of the stochastic dynamics of freight rates and the nature and sources of risk in the freight markets. Two new spot freight rate models are proposed and estimated, applying nonparametric estimation in an effort to avoid misspecification. It is found that while a one-factor Markovian model can capture the mean reversion and level effect in the spot freight rate very well, an extension to a multi-factor non-Markovian model is required in order to account for the observed lag effects in the conditional mean and variance. New theory governing the risk premium in the freight markets is proposed, which suggests that the theoretical risk premium should be time varying and, in general, depend on the state of the freight market and the duration of the period charter in a systematic fashion. Empirical tests suggest that the implied risk premium changes over time...

‣ Sources of iteration and a risk mitigation methodology in semiconductor new product development projects

Murphy, Evan
Fonte: University of Limerick Publicador: University of Limerick
Tipo: info:eu-repo/semantics/doctoralThesis; all_ul_research; ul_published_reviewed; ul_theses_dissertations
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67.07007%
peer-reviewed; Iteration is the major source of risk in semiconductor New Product Development (NPD) projects, occurring in approximately 90% of projects and causing on average approximately 30% schedule slippage. As such, iteration risk in semiconductor NPD projects is a very important issue that needs to be addressed. NPD projects bring specific challenges for a company due to the innate uncertainty involved in producing a new product. One major consequence of the inherent uncertainty involved in NPD projects is the resultant uncertainty and risk of iteration in project schedules. A challenge when trying to generate a product development schedule is to accurately account for the uncertainty caused by iteration and potential schedule slippage. The occurrence of iteration in NPD projects can directly lead to budget over-runs, schedule delays and missed product release. With time to market often being an important determinant of NPD success any factor that can potentially cause project delay must be fully understood. This research aims to further examine iteration risk in a semiconductor NPD project context, and explore how a more accurate iteration risk mitigation methodology can be established. Providing management within a firm with a process specific risk analysis regarding iteration can enable a proactive approach to NPD scheduling and contingency planning. The goal of the research is to provide an iteration risk analysis methodology where the risks of delay due to iteration in NPD projects can be identified...

‣ Barriers to Household Risk Management : Evidence from India

Cole, Shawn; Giné, Xavier; Tobacman, Jeremy; Topalova, Petia; Townsend, Robert; Vickery, James
Fonte: Banco Mundial Publicador: Banco Mundial
Português
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57.01007%
Why do many households remain exposed to large exogenous sources of non-systematic income risk? This paper uses a series of randomized field experiments in rural India to test the importance of price and non-price factors in the adoption of an innovative rainfall insurance product. The analysis finds that demand is significantly price-elastic, but that even if insurance were offered with payout ratios similar to US, widespread coverage would not be achieved. The paper identifies key non-price frictions that limit demand: liquidity constraints, particularly among poor households, lack of trust, and limited salience. The authors suggest potential improvements in contract design to mitigate these frictions.

‣ Innovating Development Finance : From Financing Sources to Financial Solutions

Girishankar, Navin
Fonte: Banco Mundial Publicador: Banco Mundial
Português
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As early as 2000, development partners embarked on a decade-long search for "innovative" or alternative sources of Official Development Assistance to help finance achievement of the Millennium Development Goals. For their part, developing countries have sought not only more financial flows but better financial solutions, for example, through partnerships that mobilize private finance for public service delivery, risk mitigation efforts that promote private entry in the productive sectors, and support for carbon trading. This paper offers a framework to organize and understand this heterogeneous mix of innovations in fund-raising and financial solutions for development. It also provides, for the first time, a stocktaking of actual innovations that make up the international landscape and highlights the World Bank Group s role to date. The stocktaking shows that innovative finance mechanisms have played a more significant role in supporting financial solutions on the ground than in identifying and exploiting "alternative sources of ODA." Innovative fund-raising therefore should be viewed as a complement to - rather than a substitute for - traditional efforts to mobilize official flows...

‣ Enhancing Access to Finance for Technology Entrepreneurs : Analysis of Highly Innovative, High Growth Start-Ups in Vietnam, Cambodia, and Nepal

World Bank Group
Fonte: Washington, DC Publicador: Washington, DC
Português
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The first part of the study provides contextual background to the financing gaps and associated barriers, which restrict access to finance for HI start-ups. These barriers are driven by both supply and demand sides of the financing equation. Supply side barriers include: high transaction costs associated with financing; high levels of credit risk associated with HI start-ups; high collateral required by financial institutions; non-conducive legal and regulatory environments for investment in HI start-ups; lack of start-up expertise and dedicated resources by financiers; and finance products that are not tailored to HI start-ups needs and circumstances. Demand side barriers include: reliance by HI start-ups on informal financing sources; lack of awareness on the process to apply for funding from formal financing sources; low levels of financial literacy by HI start-ups; and the fear of losing control by involving external investors. This section also contains a broad overview of the country frameworks governing the start-up sector...

‣ Risk management strategies and decision support systems in agriculture: a study of risk management in rainfed farming systems in Queensland

Nguyen, N.; Wegener, M.; Russell, I.
Fonte: Springer; Germany Publicador: Springer; Germany
Tipo: Parte de Livro
Publicado em //2011 Português
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66.778604%
Rainfed agricultural production systems in a semi-arid climate operate under high risk. While weather variability is the major source of risk over much of Australia, other sources of risk include finance, markets, human resources, and changes in government policy. Most farmers employ a range of strategies to manage these risks. A comprehensive risk management program has to take many complex interactions into account and decision support systems (DSS) have been designed (as their name suggests) to offer assistance in making some of these decisions. However, DSS are not widely used by farmers as they often address only part of the risk management problem and may do that in a way that is too complex for many farmers to understand. In addition, many farmers believe that their tried and tested strategies for managing risk are satisfactory. For better adoption, each DSS should be easy to use and provide local information. The use of DSS to stimulate discussion and appreciation of the complexity of managing risk by farmers and students of agriculture suggests that ‘discussion support’ might be a more appropriate term. After a series of interactions with a group of rainfed cropping farmers in south-west Queensland, a decision support tool (‘Key to dryland planting decisions’) for rainfed farms in south-west Queensland was developed. It uses Lucid3 software to capture the timing and logic of the decision-making process and structures the process to select preferred crop planting options for both summer and winter planting periods from a wide range of possibilities.; Nam Cao Nguyen...

‣ Risk management tools for dryland farmers in southwest Queensland: an action research approach

Nguyen, N.; Wegener, M.; Russell, I.
Fonte: Regional Institute Publicador: Regional Institute
Tipo: Conference paper
Publicado em //2006 Português
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57.204346%
Australian farmers operate in one of the most risky environments in the world. They have to cope with many sources of risk in their farming businesses but weather variability is one of the most important sources of risk for these farmers. There has been little prior work reported that examines the sources of risk, the practical risk management strategies employed by Queensland dryland farmers, or their attitudes towards risk management. The potential for dryland farmers to manage the various risks affecting their farm management decisions is being assessed and we expect to formulate a plan of action to improve risk management capability among dryland farmers in southwest Queensland. Once sources of risk, current strategies, interests and attitudes of farmers towards risk management are understood, a program to improve risk management among dryland farmers in southwest Queensland will be developed in collaboration with the GRDC-funded Western Farming Systems project. The study employs an action research approach including a literature review, preliminary interviews, focus group discussions, an expert survey, training workshops, and evaluation surveys. The paper will document the background to the study, state the study’s objectives...

‣ Risk management strategies by Australian farmers: two case studies

Nguyen, N.; Wegener, M.; Russell, I.; Coventry, D.; Cooper, I.
Fonte: Charles Sturt University, Australian Farm Business Management Network Publicador: Charles Sturt University, Australian Farm Business Management Network
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica
Publicado em //2007 Português
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77.148813%
Australian farmers operate in one of the most risky farming environments in the world. They have to cope with numerous sources of risk including weather uncertainty, variable market prices, and institutional changes in their business management. This paper reports results from two case studies undertaken to examine the issues of farming risks and risk management strategies in Australia. The first case study found that unpredictable weather, financial risk, marketing risk, and personal risk were regarded as the major sources of risk among farmers in the Upper Eyre Peninsula of South Australia. The main risk management strategies used by farmers in that region included diversifying crop varieties, adopting minimum tillage farming practices, minimising the area of risky crops and maximising the area of less-risky crops. They also regarded high equity, having farm management deposits, and other off-farm investments as appropriate risk management strategies, and mostly 'left marketing to the experts'. The second case study among dryland cropping farmers in southwest Queensland revealed that weather uncertainty was ranked as the most important source of risk in farming in that area. The risk from weather uncertainty was then followed by financial risks...

‣ Managing Fiscal Risk in Bulgaria

Brixi, Hana Polackova; Shatalov, Sergei; Zlaoui, Leila
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Working Paper; Publications & Research; Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper
Português
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To understand the fiscal position of a country, contingent liabilities and other sources of fiscal risk need to be considered. The authors develop a framework to assess and manage fiscal risk in Bulgaria. Bulgaria's Currency Board Arrangement has effectively imposed fiscal discipline, but leaves only limited room to accommodate potential fiscal shocks. Through risks embedded in the portfolio of government contingent and direct liabilities, significant fiscal pressures could arise in the future. Major sources of risk include environmental liabilities and investment requirements, collection capacities of the social protection institutions, and further engagement in off-budget programs, such as government guarantees. To limit the Government's exposure to risks, yet accommodate investment needs crucial to growth and development, Bulgaria must find an optimal strategy for liability management, fiscal reserves, and risk mitigation. Priorities for dealing with existing risks and limiting further accumulation of risks include: 1) Mitigating currency and interest rate risks in the government liability structure. 2) Implementing proposed institutional and finance reform of the country's pension and health care systems. 3) Building adequate contingency reserves. 4) Introducing risk-sharing arrangements. 5) Prioritizing and placing strict limits on the amounts of new guaranteed obligations. 6) Developing government capacity to analyze and manage risks. 7) Fully integrating fiscal risk management with other policy considerations in fiscal management...

‣ When the Rivers Run Dry : Liquidity and the Use of Wholesale Funds in the Transmission of the U.S. Subprime Crisis

Raddatz, Claudio
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper; Publications & Research
Português
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This paper provides systematic evidence of the role of banks' reliance on wholesale funding in the international transmission of the ongoing financial crisis. It conducts an event study to estimate the impact of the liquidity crunch of September 15, 2008, on the stock price returns of 662 individual banks across 44 countries, and tests whether differences in the abnormal returns observed around those events relate to these banks' ex-ante reliance on wholesale funding. Globally and within countries, banks that relied more heavily in non-deposit sources of funds experienced a significantly larger decline in stock returns even after controlling for other mechanisms. Within a country, the abnormal returns of banks with high wholesale dependence fell about 2 percent more than those of banks with low dependence during the three days following Lehman Brothers' bankruptcy. This large differential return suggests that liquidity played an important role in the transmission of the crisis.

‣ The process of and barriers to environmentally-oriented real estate development : examining the role of organizational structure, project delivery methods and contracts in low impact development

Singh, Charu, M.C.P. Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Fonte: Massachusetts Institute of Technology Publicador: Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Tipo: Tese de Doutorado Formato: 131 p.
Português
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Low Impact Development (LID) is a site planning approach that limits the environmental impact of development on the local hydrological regime. By preserving and mimicking natural landscape features, LID introduces a new site planning and stormwater management paradigm to mainstream real estate development and represents a product innovation in the industry. Through the examination of three case studies, this thesis explores the sources of innovation and the risks of implementation. It then examines whether changes to delivery and contract structures might be necessary to redistribute risks and incentives among members of the development team in order to realize LID practices. The investigation finds that the private sector plays an integral role in advancing LID. Often developers are the first adopters of this innovation. The success of their projects motivates municipalities to encourage the innovation through regulation and training. The projects that present the most innovative approach institute small, integrated, multi-disciplinary corporate and project team structures. Examining the process of implementing LID practices reveals that innovation does not introduce new sources of risk; rather it exacerbates existing sources of risk at each phase of development.; (cont.) Much of this increase in risk is related to the innovation's nascent stage of adoption and is related to informational or educational lags in the industry. Incremental process innovation is crucial to proper implementation of LID practices. The design phase should incorporate environmental analysis...

‣ Risk management framework for evaluating suppliers

Croce, Steven A
Fonte: Massachusetts Institute of Technology Publicador: Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Tipo: Tese de Doutorado Formato: 64 p.
Português
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Sikorsky Aircraft Co. currently finds itself in a critical growth period, in terms of both sales contracts and supplier agreements. Popular supply chain strategies preach reduction and simplification of the supply base, but Sikorsky encounters "must-grow" situations with their supply base, due to factors like international offset provisions and capacity needs. Growth in the number of supplier relationships each year strains the supply management department and makes it difficult to complete full analyses of new suppliers. The goal of this research is to provide tools that combine the knowledge of experienced supply chain employees with statistical analysis in a package that will allow any member of the supply chain group to complete a thorough supplier risk analysis in the minimum amount of time. To address Sikorsky's supply chain risk, a concrete framework is desired that will ask the right questions about a supplier and produce an indicator of the level of risk involved in a supplier agreement. This project sets out to identify the connections between the sources of risk (risk drivers) and affected performance metrics (effects). These connections can be presented in an easy-to-use tool that enables quick yet thorough analyses. The framework links supplier analyses with the resulting performance...

‣ Offsetting the Incentives: Risk Shifting and Benefits of Benchmarking in Money Management

Basak, Suleyman; Pavlova, Anna; Shapiro, Alex
Fonte: MIT - Massachusetts Institute of Technology Publicador: MIT - Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Tipo: Trabalho em Andamento Formato: 421785 bytes; application/pdf
Português
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66.746763%
Money managers are rewarded for increasing the value of assets under management, and predominantly so in the mutual fund industry. This gives the manager an implicit incentive to exploit the well-documented positive fund-flows to relative-performance relationship by manipulating her risk exposure. In a dynamic asset allocation framework, we show that as the year-end approaches, the ensuing convexities in the manager's objective induce her to closely mimic the index, relative to which her performance is evaluated, when the fund's year-to-date return is sufficiently high. As her relative performance falls behind, she chooses to deviate from the index by either increasing or decreasing the volatility of her portfolio. The maximum deviation is achieved at a critical level of underperformance. It may be optimal for the manager to reach such deviation via selling the risky asset despite its positive risk premium. Under multiple sources of risk...

‣ Financing Business Innovation; Review of External Sources of Funding for Innovative Businesses and Public Policies to Support Them

World Bank Group
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Working Paper; Publications & Research :: Working Paper; Publications & Research
Português
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67.03117%
Innovation is the main driver of long-term economic growth. The accumulation of capital, whether in the form of physical assets such as plants and equipment, or through better human capital, cannot indefinitely sustain growth unless new products, services, processes, and/or business models are developed and implemented. This paper describes the actors involved and the types of funding available at different stages of the innovation process, the rationales for public intervention, and the advantages and disadvantages of some of the most commonly used policy instruments. Innovation activities are more difficult to finance than other types of investment for several reasons. Innovation produces an intangible asset that does not typically constitute accepted collateral to obtain external funding. Also, the technological and market uncertainty of innovation activities makes the returns to investment highly uncertain, creating significant problems for the standard risk adjustment methods used by providers of funds. This paper uses a streamlined version of an innovation process with three stages to categorize the different sources of finance available; in reality...

‣ Lipoprotein(a) and the risk of vascular disease

Erqou, Sebhat
Fonte: Journal of the American Medical Association; Nature Reviews Cardiology; Archives of Internal Medicine; European Journal of Epidemiology; Journal American College of Cardiology; University of Cambridge; Institute of Public Health Publicador: Journal of the American Medical Association; Nature Reviews Cardiology; Archives of Internal Medicine; European Journal of Epidemiology; Journal American College of Cardiology; University of Cambridge; Institute of Public Health
Tipo: Thesis; not applicable; doctoral; PhD
Português
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Background: Lipoprotein(a) [Lp(a)] is composed of a low density-lipoprotein (LDL) particle and a glycoprotein molecule known as apolipoprotein(a) [apo(a)]. Apo(a) exists in several differently-sized isoforms and is responsible for the unique properties of Lp(a). Although Lp(a) has been known for the past 40 years its relationship with coronary heart disease (CHD) has not been characterized in sufficient detail. Whether Lp(a) causes CHD is not clear. Furthermore, the role of apo(a) isoform variation and other sources of Lp(a) heterogeneity (e.g., level of oxidized phospholipids) in Lp(a)-disease association has not been determined. Objectives: To characterize in detail the association of circulating Lp(a) levels with the risk CHD To assess the nature of Lp(a)-CHD association using an integrative genetic study To explore the role of Lp(a) heterogeneity in its association with CHD Data sources: 1. The Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration (ERFC) database (36 studies, 127,000 participants) 2. The European Prospective Investigation of Cancer ? Norfolk (EPIC-Norfolk) study (2200CHD cases, 2200 controls) 3. The Pakistani Risk of Myocardial Infarction Study (PROMIS) (1800 MI cases and 1800 controls) 4. Systematic quantitative reviews of published epidemiological studies Results: ERFC data - Analyses of cross-sectional data on up to 127...

‣ Public instruments for business management in Chilean wine industry: A comparative analysis of discrete choice models

Lobos,Germán; Viviani,Jean-Laurent; Schnettler,Berta; Tigero,Tamara; Reyes,Ángela
Fonte: INIAV - DOIS PORTOS (Ex-Estação Vitivinícola Nacional) Publicador: INIAV - DOIS PORTOS (Ex-Estação Vitivinícola Nacional)
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica Formato: text/html
Publicado em 01/01/2011 Português
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76.68235%
In Chile there is a wide availability of public instruments to promote productivity in business management, which in practice serve as financial hedge instruments. Based on multivariate analysis the authors estimate the probability of using public instruments in Chilean wine industry comparing logit and probit models. Results indicate that probability depends on different socioeconomic variables and sources of risk. The global correct prediction was estimated in 80.5% through ROC curve analysis.

‣ A real options application to manage risk related to intrinsic variables of a mine plan: a case study on Chuquicamata Underground Mine Project

Botin,J.; Del Castillo,M.F.; Guzman,R.
Fonte: Journal of the Southern African Institute of Mining and Metallurgy Publicador: Journal of the Southern African Institute of Mining and Metallurgy
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica Formato: text/html
Publicado em 01/01/2013 Português
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66.75871%
Traditional risk quantification methods provide little information on the sources of risk, and tend to produce static over-conservative evaluations, which do not account for changes in the performance of the project. Capital investment decisions for large mining projects require more complex risk evaluation models that include the value of flexibility and the different risk levels associated with uncertainty on project variables (price, grade, dilution, and production rates, among many other). In this context, real option valuation (ROV) methods have proven potential to quantify the risk associated with such variables and integrate alternative scenarios and management strategies into the evaluation process. In this paper, a risk quantification model is developed that successfully quantifies the risk associated with dilution, as a function of production rate. This model is then validated in a case study on the Chuquicamata Underground Mine project.